The coming Gold crash

[GoldDiggerDave]

48 minutes ago, AgCoyote said:

On 19/06/2021 at 18:11, GoldDiggerDave said:

The prepping ideal is bonkers. In a economic crash or natural disaster pm’s won’t save anyone. Selling on the back of fear is not a new formula but it’s proven to be successful.  If the worst did happen most would be far better off being fit, healthy and have real world skills.  

 

 

Many would disagree. At the end of Grant Williams's documentary on gold, many of the experts told stories about how gold made a difference in difficult times. It's a way to preserve wealth into a new system or as fiat currencies fail.  People in the UK or US have no recent experience of prolonged and sustained cataclysmic failures of political or economic systems but I tend to think that having bullion is certainly going to have you way ahead of the game should that occur.

Of course it's not the only thing that matters in such a hypothetical, far from it.

It's always better to have something and not need it, than need something and not have it.  The premise from some people is so short sighted.  In a SHTF  situation for the 21st century will most certainly be the breakdown of all electronic transactions.  At this point just how can anyone liquidate their PM's?  Run down to their LCS or pawnbrokers?  In this situation will they be open, will they let you in?.....And if I was a bad man and wanted some easy gold in a SHTF moment it would not take a genius to park outside a pawnbrokers and just rob the PM's off the muppets trying to sell it?   Your stack in this situation is more likely to make you a victim than a survivor.  

It's always better to have a diverse wealth portfolio, and also have a diverse skillset portfolio as well.  

 

[Divmad]

1 hour ago, AgCoyote said:

Many would disagree. At the end of Grant Williams's documentary on gold, many of the experts told stories about how gold made a difference in difficult times. It's a way to preserve wealth into a new system or as fiat currencies fail.  People in the UK or US have no recent experience of prolonged and sustained cataclysmic failures of political or economic systems but I tend to think that having bullion is certainly going to have you way ahead of the game should that occur.

Of course it's not the only thing that matters in such a hypothetical, far from it.

 

 

Somehow, I don't think that having in your pocket a bunch of sovereigns or krugerrands is going to get you a ticket out of Ukraine, except under great discounts to intrinsic value, let alone with silver eagles or brits. The idea of PM physical buying your way out of trouble is a farce, at the very basic level of survival.

[AgCoyote]

On 25/02/2022 at 00:30, Divmad said:

Somehow, I don't think that having in your pocket a bunch of sovereigns or krugerrands is going to get you a ticket out of Ukraine, except under great discounts to intrinsic value, let alone with silver eagles or brits. The idea of PM physical buying your way out of trouble is a farce, at the very basic level of survival.

If you have such disbelief in the asset, why do you accumulate it?

[Divmad]

47 minutes ago, AgCoyote said:

If you have such disbelief in the asset, why do you accumulate it?

I have a realistic disbelief in its protection under the "SHTF" scenario, above. I have 100% belief in Gold and Silver in the Stagflation scenario, which characterised the 1970s until demand destruction from out of control commodity prices forced a global deep recession in 1973/74. That's why I have been stacking since Covid started, in 2020. Ukraine is the second leg of this inflationary journey. It's deja vu, for those like me who lived and worked and paid a 20% mortgage through the 70s.

[GoldenGriffin]

2 hours ago, Divmad said:

It's deja vu, for those like me who lived and worked and paid a 20% mortgage through the 70s.

20% on a £25,000 mortgage in circa 1970's, you'd be paying £416 interest per month.

20% on a £250,000 today, you'd be paying a staggering £4,166 interest per month.

As we all know, interest rates aren't anywhere near that high and tend to be around 2%.   2% on a £250,000 mortgage, you'd be paying £416 interest per month, which is the same interest as the 1970's example above, but the mortgage amount is 10 x higher and takes much longer to pay off the principal, compared to the 1970's example - wages haven't gone up in line with "real inflation" - the "basket of goods" a normal person would use to calculate increased cost of living.

Paying high £'s in interest is the "norm" and we should not be fooled by reduced interest rates, thinking you're getting a "good deal" - you have to look at how long it would take you to reasonably pay off all of the principal. 

My parents could have paid off their mortgage in 2 years, no problem.  My dad earnt more per year than the value of the house when they bought it and his salary was pretty much average for the time.  That time is now "long gone" and we're now in a "credit driven" financial environment and the next generations are to pay off the vast amounts of debt that have accumulated over decades.

First time buyers on the property market take on a lot of that accumulated debt, as they sign for a mortgage and pay way too much for a property.

Reducing the interest rate over time and policy changes allows for increased borrowing and the more borrowing (credit) there is, the higher asset values increase.  If interest rates were 20% today,  everyone would default on their mortgage and that will definitely not happen.

Edited March 7, 2022 by GoldenGriffin

[Divmad]

39 minutes ago, GoldenGriffin said:

20% on a £25,000 mortgage in circa 1970's, you'd be paying £416 interest per month.

20% on a £250,000 today, you'd be paying a staggering £4,166 interest per month.

As we all know, interest rates aren't anywhere near that high and tend to be around 2%.   2% on a £250,000 mortgage, you'd be paying £416 interest per month, which is the same interest as the 1970's example above, but the mortgage amount is 10 x higher and takes much longer to pay off the principal, compared to the 1970's example - wages haven't gone up in line with "real inflation", you know the "basket of goods" a normal person would use to calculate increased cost of living.

Paying high £'s in interest is the "norm" and we should not be fooled by reduced interest rates, thinking you're getting a "good deal" - you have to look at how long it would take you to reasonably pay off all of the principal. 

My parents could have paid off their mortgage in 2 years, no problem.  My dad earnt more per year than the value of the house when they bought it and his salary was pretty much average for the time.  That time is now "long gone" and we're now in a "credit driven" financial environment and the next generations are to pay off the vast amounts of debt that has accumulated over decades.

First time buyers on the property market take on a kot of that accumulated debt, as they sign for a mortgage and pay way too much for a property.

Reducing the interest rate over time and policy changes allows for increased borrowing and the more borrowing (credit) there is, the higher asset values increase.  If interest rates were 20% today,  everyone would default on their mortgage and that will definitely not happen.

The reason it won't happen this time (20% mortgage interest rates on variable rate terms, for me, in Canada, briefly), is that there is absolutely no stomach for such punitive interest rates by any Western CB Governor/Chairman, unlike with Paul Volcker.  For all the reasons you quote, it ain't gonna happen, and so the stagflation will squeeze the pips right out of younger generations of homeowners, through pernicious inflation, rather than y interest rates going to positive real rates as an anti-inflation deterrent. Result: stagflation will be prolonged, social cohesion will suffer, civil disobedience will rise..... Gold and Silver will be some of the few safe harbours during the coming tortuous times, across the West.

[LawrenceChard]

On 27/07/2020 at 13:24, silenceissilver said:

Thankfully I bought more than usually just at the very start of the bull ran last summer. "1009£  spot price - maybe I should wait till it's down to at least 1007£?" Thanks God I didn't, after all. But I remember how I hesitated.  I buy monthly but even for those purchases I wish the prices were lower. I will have to downgrade my monthly purchase to one Sovereign a month....half a Sovereign a month....a quarter Sovereign a month and eventually they will need to introduce an eighth sovereign for me.

I presume you are aware:

THE 2021 WE WILL REMEMBER THEM GOLD ONE EIGHTH SOVEREIGN

£99.00

The world’s first one-eighth sovereign ever to pay tribute to the ordinary ranks of the British armed forces involved in the Second World War

😎

[Abyss]

Did anyone ever manage to umask Wonger?

Recently came across a YouTube video by 2 is 1 and could not help but think back to this Wonger prediction of the coming Gold crash. Is Wonger Harry Dent?

[dicker]

Wonger claimed to be a trader, and I would suggest that is actually wasnt. 

[Stacktastic]

48 minutes ago, Abyss said:

Harry Dent

is that fool still going?
I was and still am a rookie and even I know that the markets go on the money supply. 
He kept predicting a crash mid way through all that stupid stimulus thing. 
Could not have been wonger.  

The probability of it going up substantial is very high, but a major economical event is on the cards I think? Too quiet  
If we see $900 gold then fabulous as i dont have a ton & need to buy more, but not at todays prices!!

Edited January 29, 2023 by Stacktastic

[AuricGoldfinger]

39 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

is that fool still going?
I was and still am a rookie and even I know that the markets go on the money supply. 
He kept predicting a crash mid way through all that stupid stimulus thing. 
Could not have been wonger.  

The probability of it going up substantial is very high, but a major economical event is on the cards I think? Too quiet  
If we see $900 gold then fabulous as i dont have a ton & need to buy more, but not at todays prices!!

Todays expensive is tomorrow’s cheap!

[Stacktastic]

1 hour ago, AuricGoldfinger said:

Todays expensive is tomorrow’s cheap!

Precisely. Some very reputable people have been calling for 3-5k in gold & I agree. 
These are also people that have been bearish when it was not looking so good. 

I do think people dont have the capacity to zoom out and look at the larger cycle. 
2021 was just one big pull back - largely fuelled by retail bullishness in 2020 after buffet got in. 
That was overshadowed in better gains from bitcoin. Then came the tax loss selling.  

Bitcoins dead, the dollar has stalled, its largely risk off & CBDC's are on the cards. 
Not to mention aggressive monetary tightening
Everyone said they would pivot & they have and will not until its really broken.

Thats what they are directed to do and want I think judging by all the other goings
To cure climate change drive people into poverty & dependency on the government. 

Thats how I see it in my simple little head. 

Edited January 29, 2023 by Stacktastic

[tpcob303]

On 24/03/2020 at 21:05, Wonger said:

This says im very serious im afraid, its going down my friend, sorry, I take no pleasure in seeing public loses, trust me on that one!

Wonger, if you are relying on just this chart then you should look at the gold price 15 - 20 year chart. If you were to overlay the chart from around 2005 and blow it up by a few percent and lay it over the most recent few years you will notice the pattern of movement is almost identical to the lead up to the 2008 - 2011 rally when it peaked. Factor in all the funny fiat money that has been printed, the inflation and the rubbish spewed by the fed reserve. Gold isn't going down by a long shot, while it might dip in the next month, I'm pretty sure once February is over I will take your bet and counter bet that by mid march you will start to see that it is only going to go up and up and up. There is no chance its going down and the interest rate hikes are only going to fan the flames like adding fuel to fire. I'm all in on gold and silver. 

[tpcob303]

On 24/03/2020 at 22:14, Elements said:

What do you make of this? Some familiar names popping up.

https://www.trouw.nl/economie/klanten-van-abn-amro-moeten-hun-goud-verkopen~b668b850/

 

Using google translate:

ABN Amro customers must sell their gold

ABN Amro customers will no longer be able to put their money into physical gold, silver or platinum. The bank will discontinue these three investment products next Friday. Customers will have to sell their positions before April 1. If that does not happen, ABN Amro will do this for them at the prevailing price.

This concerns about 2,000 customers of ABN Amro's private banking departments (private banking and retail). This may also include companies or other legal structures. They have "weight bills" with gold and platinum in grams and silver in pounds.

The fact that ABN Amro will stop using these investment products has to do with changes in 2013. Until then, ABN Amro offered precious metals through Deutsche Bank. Those who had such an investment product could actually get the physical gold delivered through Deutsche Bank.

But Deutsche Bank discontinued this service. ABN Amro transferred the precious metal trade to the Swiss bank UBS. At UBS, however, it was not possible for customers to actually request the gold or silver.

Additional regulations
Because the physical delivery of precious metals is not possible, a precious metal purchased through ABN Amro is not a “direct investment”. Because it is a complex product, ABN Amro must comply with additional regulations. Those rules for European financial markets have been tightened.

“Given the limited size of the invested capital in these instruments and the small customer group that purchase them,” ABN Amro prefers to stop. Customers can buy shares in gold companies, the bank suggests.

When ABN Amro sells the gold, silver or platinum for its customers, this is done without transaction costs. The bank transfers the proceeds to the customer's cash account. "We cannot guarantee that this sale will take place at a favorable rate," ABN wrote in the letter informing customers several months ago.

For those who have not yet done so, it is no longer such a favorable time to sell gold. The price has fallen significantly in the past month, reflecting the corona crisis that is causing major stock market and economic shocks.

The cancellation of these accounts by ABN Amro brings to an end a history that goes back to the establishment of the Hollandsche Bank Unie (HBU) in 1914, writes gold trading company Aunexum in retrospect.

The HBU took care of the trade in gold and other precious metal at the Coolsingel in Rotterdam. In 1967 ABN acquired all the shares of this bank. Anyone who invested in precious metal at ABN Amro knew that the gold or silver was kept in the HBU safes. When ABN Amro merged with Fortis in 2009, HBU was sold to Deutsche Bank. After that, customers were able to request the gold from their account for another four years and put it in the safe at home.

My bets are to limit the amount of people buying into gold. Stop the people buying and prevent them from saving their savings. Looks more like the elite are prepping to mess us over and the banks are being given their orders before the PSHTF. 

[SidS]

Don't diss the Wonger, he is a god in some people's eyes, mostly his own to be fair.

I know he is missed sorely on TSF, he had such insightful analyses. Well something like that anyway. 😁

[Paul]

he hasn't been that keen to enjoy the Moon journey with rest of us, young Wonger 

[tpcob303]

8 minutes ago, Paul said:

he hasn't been that keen to enjoy the Moon journey with rest of us, young Wonger 

I was blissfully unaware he had already decided to book his ticket to Mars with musk and jet off earlier than expected. Oh well, still my bet is on mid march for the start of the gold rally by how I'm reading the charts. 

[Paul]

2 minutes ago, tpcob303 said:

I was blissfully unaware he had already decided to book his ticket to Mars with musk and jet off earlier than expected. Oh well, still my bet is on mid march for the start of the gold rally by how I'm reading the charts. 

He might have invested in FTX instead as it had good potential to 

[Darr3nG]

Excellent @SilverDrum

[Bigmarc]

Respectfully done. 

 

[Hanz]

@EdwardTeachthe thread you were looking for. 

Edited February 4, 2023 by Hanz
Postings error

[dicker]

One of the top threads, along with the one “Sold All my gold” where someone had bought some gold, then sold it for less than they bought it for.  

[AuricGoldfinger]

Sold all my gold, got stung.

classic

[Paul]

At the bottom of the market, Wonger sold,
His golden hoard, he was so bold.
But now he sees with regret,
The wealth he should've kept,
The sting of his decision, never gets old  

[SidS]

Wonger, Wonger man of class,

Sold his gold and bought some brass,

Put all his faith in fiat money,

Drop to 400? Well that's just funny.

 

😁