The coming Gold crash

[LawrenceChard]

1 minute ago, Mox said:

And one had assumed you were a gentleman...

I am, that's why I am speechless.🙂

[LawrenceChard]

On 24/03/2020 at 19:40, Wonger said:

They said that over on the Silver price to plummet thread too and it traded down to $11.70, next stop $4 in my opinion!

Want to sell me a couple of tonnes at $5? 🙂

[LawrenceChard]

On 24/03/2020 at 20:08, Wonger said:

You will when its $400!

I loved it last time it was $400! 🙂

[LawrenceChard]

On 24/03/2020 at 20:18, sixgun said:

But everyone can't be long - for every long there is a short.

I had a girlfriend who said that to me once! 🙂

[Mox]

55 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

Never seen a black diamond?

They do look very much like a piece of coal (at least the better ones do). 🙂

Talking of diamonds...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/16/botswana-says-found-worlds-third-largest-diamond

Would be a bit uncomfortable smuggling that out of the country.

[LawrenceChard]

On 24/03/2020 at 20:44, richatthecroft said:

@Wonger I would love to know what crystal ball’s or bolloxs you are looking into? 

I personally don’t profess to understand or have the ability to interpret any of the charts and stats you post- but are they worth a fiddlers fig at this point in time?  

 

@richatthecroft You are certainly not stupid, but I suspect that nobody in this thread has the ability to interpret any of the charts and stats posted, including the O.P.

If there is, then this ability has not been clearly demonstrated. 🙂

[LawrenceChard]

On 24/03/2020 at 21:34, silenceissilver said:

A Sovereign for £82 🤩

If only

I did use to sell them at £4 each! 🙂

[LawrenceChard]

On 24/03/2020 at 23:43, Wonger said:

Do you really think that consumers buying food and amazon goodies will overwhelm the complete deflationary collapse of global securities resulting in inflation pushing up Gold? Really? 

That was quite a clever question, however I would be much more impressed by a reasoned argument in favour of your position, perhaps coupled with some evidence of your success at forecasting. 🙂

[LawrenceChard]

On 25/03/2020 at 00:05, Melon said:

I'm going to guess you didn't predict a global pandemic. So let's not get too full of ourselves shall we? 😄

No, but the W.H.O. did, https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-statement-on-ihr-emergency-committee-on-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)

Unfortunately, Boris Johnson seems to have been blissfully aware of this until several months later, as apparently were  the rest of H.M. government, and the entire House of Commons, including the opposition.

Mind you, The Kaiser Chiefs predicted a riot, and nobody believe them either!

@🙂

[AndrewSL76]

23 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

I did use to sell them at £4 each! 🙂

Out of interest for this 1976 vintage, what did a pint of milk/beer cost at the same time? Just for context!!

[LawrenceChard]

On 25/03/2020 at 01:34, Wonger said:

And I see that Jamie is on the offer already!

I heard that Everybody's Talking About Jamie, but...

...W.T.F. is Jamie?

[LawrenceChard]

On 25/03/2020 at 03:01, Kman said:

Could you dumb this down more like you're explaining to a 5 year old

you can feel the sentiment is red hot on Gold especially after the Monetary and fiscal packages exciting inflation fears -  what does this mean?

you get deflation and everyone is on the same side of the boat and its sailing into a storm and about to capsize! and this?

 

I think they are the lyrics of a Rap song. 🙂

[Thelonerangershorse]

1 hour ago, LawrenceChard said:

I did use to sell them at £4 each! 🙂

Haven't by any chance got any left in stock?

[LawrenceChard]

36 minutes ago, AndrewSL76 said:

Out of interest for this 1976 vintage, what did a pint of milk/beer cost at the same time? Just for context!!

That was about 1964 to 1966.

There were quantitiy discounts,  £37.50 per 10, £365 per 100, and £3500 per 1000. 

https://24carat.co.uk/collectingcoinsframe.html

Milk? dunno, beer? about two shillings a pint (in a pub).

5 minutes ago, Thelonerangershorse said:

Haven't by any chance got any left in stock?

Where have I heard that before?

[Stacktastic]

If we Dont bounce at £1225 we can see much lower. 
Im in cash ready to back up the truck on mining stocks.

I have been expecting a pull back before a potential huge leg up. 
Hopefully before market crash LOL. 

Edited June 16, 2021 by Stacktastic

[TommyTwoShots]

47 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

If we Dont bounce at £1225 we can see much lower. 
Im in cash ready to back up the truck on mining stocks.

I have been expecting a pull back before a potential huge leg up. 
Hopefully before market crash LOL. 

Holding cash with inflation rising and the stock and property market booming, seems like a good plan.

[Stacktastic]

13 minutes ago, TommyTwoShots said:

Holding cash with inflation rising and the stock and property market booming, seems like a good plan.

LOL - love the sarcasm assuming it was sarcasm? 
Its not a long term plan, I removed most my capital from the stock market. 

I literally cant find an asset outside of physical tangibles to invest in now,
I dont like 'booming' or 'all time highs' - thats does not present value. 

If inflation starts looking bad, I would buy the most undervalued or hated commodities. 
if gold spikes massively I would jump on the GDXJ maybe late, but it would end well. 

Id rather sit back and wait for better prices as the only thing I can find atm, is rum. .

Edited June 16, 2021 by Stacktastic

[TommyTwoShots]

9 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

LOL - love the sarcasm assuming it was sarcasm? 
Its not a long term plan, I removed most my capital from the stock market. 

I literally cant find an asset outside of physical tangibles to invest in now,
I dont like 'booming' or 'all time highs' - thats does not present value. 

If inflation starts looking bad, I would buy the most undervalued or hated commodities. 
if gold spikes massively I would jump on the GDXJ maybe late, but it would end well. 

Id rather sit back and wait for better prices as the only thing I can find atm, is rum. .

Sorry couldn’t help myself, I hear what your saying but I have a feeling we are in for a long bull run as the pandemic comes to an end. 

[Stacktastic]

1 hour ago, TommyTwoShots said:

Sorry couldn’t help myself, I hear what your saying but I have a feeling we are in for a long bull run as the pandemic comes to an end. 

Dont be sorry I dont mind.

Yeah possibly - how long out of interest? . I dont have any answers.
Personally if it does not correct hard (ie more than 20%) by the end of Q4 i would be very surprised. 

Anyhow as a long term macro investor I am waiting for cheaper prices for entry. 
With shorter term stuff& undervalued stocks, like the gold & uranium thats different. 
I guess its a gut feeling, corroborated by looking at the charts & the sentiments of quite a few fund manager like Dalio & cathy wood. 
Buffet has been sitting on cash for years now & even Gates has sold out to buy farm land. 

Anyhow back to gold, seems a lot of people are selling out. £1,290 from £1,315 in amateur of hours. 
To be fair this has been predicted by tons of experts on Kitco etc. Forex too.

Even i was expecting it and Im a novice, hence why i am in cash. 
I think this time around it could bounce much more easily and rally to all time highs by the end of Q3. 
If it carries on down, then fabulous buying opportunity. Win Win if you ask me. 

Not so much for @LawrenceChard as i guess if your holding stock from when the spot was £1350 and it goes to £1,150 you have to make up for that with premiums. 
If it sustains a lower price for longer I guess thats when it starts to get cheaper as you buy it in cheaper. I assume thats how it works?
I can see the beauty of pre ordering now. Im waiting and going rum shopping next week. 

Edited June 17, 2021 by Stacktastic

[Stu]

1 hour ago, Stacktastic said:

Dont be sorry I dont mind.

Yeah possibly - how long out of interest? . I dont have any answers.
Personally if it does not correct hard (ie more than 20%) by the end of Q4 i would be very surprised. 

Anyhow as a long term macro investor I am waiting for cheaper prices for entry. 
With shorter term stuff& undervalued stocks, like the gold & uranium thats different. 
I guess its a gut feeling, corroborated by looking at the charts & the sentiments of quite a few fund manager like Dalio & cathy wood. 
Buffet has been sitting on cash for years now & even Gates has sold out to buy farm land. 

Anyhow back to gold, seems a lot of people are selling out. £1,290 from £1,315 in amateur of hours. 
To be fair this has been predicted by tons of experts on Kitco etc. Forex too.

Even i was expecting it and Im a novice, hence why i am in cash. 
I think this time around it could bounce much more easily and rally to all time highs by the end of Q3. 
If it carries on down, then fabulous buying opportunity. Win Win if you ask me. 

Not so much for @LawrenceChard as i guess if your holding stock from when the spot was £1350 and it goes to £1,150 you have to make up for that with premiums. 
If it sustains a lower price for longer I guess thats when it starts to get cheaper as you buy it in cheaper. I assume thats how it works?
I can see the beauty of pre ordering now. Im waiting and going rum shopping next week. 

I think most bullion dealers hedge there position to some extent. I did read the mechanics of this somewhere but had to reread it several times for any of it to sink in. 

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, Stu said:

I think most bullion dealers hedge there position to some extent. I did read the mechanics of this somewhere but had to reread it several times for any of it to sink in. 

I had the impression that most bullion coin shops don't hedge their positions.

@LawrenceChard do you hedge your bullion stock?

 

(not hedging makes sense, that's why prices are slower to move down due to restricted flow)

 

HH

[LawrenceChard]

3 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

Not so much for @LawrenceChard as i guess if your holding stock from when the spot was £1350 and it goes to £1,150 you have to make up for that with premiums. 
If it sustains a lower price for longer I guess thats when it starts to get cheaper as you buy it in cheaper. I assume thats how it works?
I can see the beauty of pre ordering now. Im waiting and going rum shopping next week. 

No, if we are holding stock was spot goes from £1350 to £1150, we make a "paper" loss of £200 per ounce on our stocks, with the same in reverse when gold goes up.

There is no way we could make this up with higher premiums. If we increased premiums from say 3% to 23%, we would wait a long, long, time before we sold anything. Our premiums are relatively unaffected by actual price levels, and much more by supply and demand. Even then, it would take a big change for us to shift our premiums by more than about 1%. As a dealer who "makes a market", we need volume trade, preferably in both directions, to operate profitably. There are times when all goes quiet, and we just ride these out. Having a numismatic side, and a wide range of stock and "products" helps out.

If we can keep purchases and sales in approximate balance, then we make our money by trading the premium, rather like a casino or bookmaker.

If we sell an ounce that we bought when spot was £1350, for £1150 plus 2%, then buy another ounce at £1150, we are happy.

As gold has increased in price more than it has decreased in the last 50+ years, then our stock-holding account will be in profit on a long term basis. I don't go out and celebrate when gold goes up £100, and neither do I think about jumping off Blackpool Tower when it goes down £100. 

[Darr3nG]

I miss @Wonger - hasn't been on since last August.

Any downward gold price, was always accompanied by a significant increase in the number of his posts.

[LawrenceChard]

29 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

I had the impression that most bullion coin shops don't hedge their positions.

@LawrenceChard do you hedge your bullion stock?

 

(not hedging makes sense, that's why prices are slower to move down due to restricted flow)

 

HH

We do use some paper / account hedging, but mainly for short-term positions, to reduce our exposure, but probably never exceeds about 5% of our stock value, and more like 1% or less.

We do use more "physical" hedging, so for example if we 100 Krugerrands, and could not "cover" them immediately, we would buy an extra 100 gold Britannias or similar to cover the metal price risk.

Mostly though, if we sell new gold Britannias, for example, and ETA is 4 to 6 weeks, we simply buy them, and pay for them, so that the deal is covered, and this makes no difference to our profit whether gold goes up or down in the interim.

Most (about 99%) of our stock is not hedged.

This does mean we have a shared experience with most of our customers.

[LawrenceChard]

13 minutes ago, Darr3nG said:

I miss @Wonger - hasn't been on since last August.

Any downward gold price, was always accompanied by a significant increase in the number of his posts.

A bit of "I'll be back".

Perhaps he works as some kind of terminator? 🙂