Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[stefffana]

3 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

you havent been following the strength of the dollar have you? theres your answer!

Do you want a friendly bet of 1oz silver for £1500/oz gold by 1st of July?😁

[HerefordBullyun]

30 minutes ago, stefffana said:

Do you want a friendly bet of 1oz silver for £1500/oz gold by 1st of July?😁

No but i maybe tempted by 1600 by year end...... i will let you know when the spot price in september

[stefffana]

6 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

No but i maybe tempted by 1600 by year end...... i will let you know when the spot price in september

I will answer you on the naughty page. On here is very inappropriate.😊

[Minimalist]

Willing to bet on price: £1,455.99 no higher by 12:00/Noon tomorrow (18/5/2022).

Prize: 1oz Silver

 

[Stacktastic]

8 hours ago, Minimalist said:

Willing to bet on price: £1,455.99 no higher by 12:00/Noon tomorrow (18/5/2022).

Prize: 1oz Silver

 

£1443.16 I bet.  
Its not looking good is it?

Still keeping my GDXJ position as it is.
$32.41 is not bad & mining stocks should have a mini rally this week. 

Edited May 18, 2022 by Stacktastic

[stefffana]

8 hours ago, Minimalist said:

Willing to bet on price: £1,455.99 no higher by 12:00/Noon tomorrow (18/5/2022).

Prize: 1oz Silver

 

Hi, at this moment is £1460.12.😊 Should I give you the delivery address for my 1oz silver?

Cheers.

Edited May 18, 2022 by stefffana

[GoldDabbler]

Mental health is more important than worrying about 50p on a bag of spuds. Screw the economy, I'm buying a sov!  

[jultorsk]

2 minutes ago, GoldDabbler said:

Mental health is more important than worrying about 50p on a bag of spuds. Screw the economy, I'm buying a sov!  

Fully agree - but I could only afford this wee little quarter sov! (3.5% over spot) 😅

 

[GoldDabbler]

Just now, jultorsk said:

Fully agree - but I could only afford this wee little quarter sov! (3.5% over spot) 😅

 

Gold is gold.  I'd like to get into the half n quarter sovs but my local retailer doesn't stock them and I hate mail order delivery for anything. The gold fever is high this morning  I'll feel satiated when I pop into Costco and grab a coin later  

[Zhorro]

Over the past year UK inflation has been reported as 9% and the Sterling price of gold has increased 11.5%, so gold looks to be performing as a hedge against inflation - if you believe the official inflation figure.

[Ukbullionfan]

6 hours ago, jultorsk said:

Fully agree - but I could only afford this wee little quarter sov! (3.5% over spot) 😅

 

3.5% above spot for a quarter ? Where did you buy that from ?? 

[HerefordBullyun]

4 hours ago, Zhorro said:

Over the past year UK inflation has been reported as 9% and the Sterling price of gold has increased 11.5%, so gold looks to be performing as a hedge against inflation - if you believe the official inflation figure.

thats the point i dont and its the paper markets trying to suppress the real prices

[CANV]

There are well linked relationships between commodity prices and the US dollar   As they are all priced in dollars..

a strong dollar as we have now keeps prices suppressed in dollar terms (I’m not talking about war blowouts but in general)

the pound usually takes a bit of a pasting in most crisis cases. Which is why any investment fund has so much UK wealth invested abroad, especially in the states.  The market condition that see US stock markets tank. Usually lead to Sterling taking a dip.  We are as a nation uniquely hedged  

Edited May 18, 2022 by CANV

[Minimalist]

Too late gentlemen, never got an agreement in place. Lucky me lol

[Paul]

we're no longer doooomed today, it going.............. to 'da moon ! {again!}

[LawrenceChard]

On 10/05/2022 at 17:55, James32 said:

I've a pile off 1oz silver coins and I accept your offer...pm for payment details ✨️ 

You beat me to it!...

... but if you get too many, you know where to come.

😎

[LawrenceChard]

22 hours ago, stefffana said:

Do you want a friendly bet of 1oz silver for £1500/oz gold by 1st of July?😁

Good job CS didn't mention gold in this message "This topic is to discuss price action in GBP, to discuss price action in $ USD, please see this topic: https://thesilverforum.com/topic/19962-gold-monitoring-thread-usd-only/", except in the link title of course!

😎

[LawrenceChard]

On 4th May 2022, when the US Fed raised its interest rate to 1.0%, my thoughts were:

While it was not a big rise, it showed a shift in thinking.

When US rates go up, the dollar usually strengthens and gold weakens.

This is because it becomes more attractive to hold dollars, and gold pays no dividends.

Also the pound, and many other currencies weaken against the dollar.

Combine the two movements, and it could be neutral for gold measured in pounds sterling.

But, of course, it was then likely that the UK would increase interest rates to match at 1.0%, as it did the next day, 5th May 2022.

This should strengthen the pound, and weaken gold.

I posted an internal Teams note to that effect, although I did not expect to see big swings.

Gold had been between £1485 and £1495, and shortly after the rate rises, it was trading around £1515, peaking at around £1540, so it looks like I got it wrong, and I still don't understand why, except...

The rate rises were stated to be to help protect against inflation, which most of us expected to be over 10%, especially in view of huge increases in energy costs, and disruptions to food production such as Ukrainian grain, not to mention transport diffculties. Also wars tend to be inflationary.

Inflation means the value of fiat currencies drops wen measured against hard assets like...

... Gold!

My Teams note did also mention that gold should win in the longer term, so what has actually happened?

I already said it went up straight after I said it would go down, then it started to go down over the following weeks after I said it should start going up. Currently around £1465, although we bought some at below £1460 yesterday.

So far, I have been wrong twice out of two times, so this is perhaps a good reason not to listen to my views, however there is a simple principle which has stood me in good stead for decades, which is buy on the dips, and sell on the spikes. Even this can work out wrong, because you have to choose your timing, or random factors can interfere, changing your "luck".

We actually buy and sell gold most days, but we can usually choose to buy more or less than we need, and vice versa. 

Where does this leave my gold price advice and thoughts?

Over the next few months or years, we will suffer inflation, and this should increase the value of precious metals relative to most currencies, and weaken most currencies relative to precious metals.

As a result, our current view is to keep our gold holdings topped up.

Similar thoughts apply to silver and platinum of course.

😎

 

 

[CANV]

gold went up prior to inflation and war, at the start of this year.. the smart guys are ahead of the curve.. alas im not one of them.  

the white metals will fall on recession fears.  all so very industrial. 

Edited May 18, 2022 by CANV

[Stacktastic]

33 minutes ago, CANV said:

the white metals will fall on recession fears.  all so very industrial. 

Fabulous. Have a lot of physical silver in the £20's (spot) but get it down to £14 again thats a fire sale IMO.  
Compared to £1500 gold I dont even see it as a risk anymore compared to storing it in a bank or in stocks. 
£600 platinum would be something to take advantage of if sentiment happens thats possible - madness. 

Edited May 18, 2022 by Stacktastic

[jultorsk]

8 hours ago, Ukbullionfan said:

3.5% above spot for a quarter ? Where did you buy that from ?? 

Just a random one-off. For some reason special reverses don't seem too popular here (maybe because they don't look like "real" sovereigns) so on a rare occasion can get lucky. 🤷‍♂️

[jultorsk]

4 hours ago, LawrenceChard said:

On 4th May 2022, when the US Fed raised its interest rate to 1.0%, my thoughts were:

While it was not a big rise, it showed a shift in thinking.

When US rates go up, the dollar usually strengthens and gold weakens.

The rate rises were stated to be to help protect against inflation, which most of us expected to be over 10%, especially in view of huge increases in energy costs, and disruptions to food production such as Ukrainian grain, not to mention transport diffculties. Also wars tend to be inflationary.

This is my thinking as well. Just recently Jerome Powell reiterated they will keep raising rates as long as they see inflation coming down "in a clear and convincing way” and "getting closer to the 2% target previously established". I'm assuming other developed countries' central banks have no option but to follow FED more or less in lockstep.

As the FED started the hikes so far behind the curve, this may take 1-2 years to play out in full - especially as at the same time military experts do not expect a quick resolution to the war, and consequently energy and food prices continue to rise. The fuel prices will rise as long as there's economic activity - and when they stop rising it will be due to a crippling recession. Because diesel prices touch everything in the value chain, the price of the supermarket tomato keeps jogging up (growing and transporting one tomato to supermarket shelf consumes an equivalent of 6 tablespoons of diesel). Food & energy inflation tends to be sticky, as everyone needs to heat and eat.  Its a nasty situation we're in, gentlemen.

Yet I fully agree - logically gold should go up, and eventually it will. Meanwhile, batten down the hatches.

[ady]

2 hours ago, jultorsk said:

I'm assuming other developed countries' central banks have no option but to follow FED more or less in lockstep.

Dangerous to assume! The FED is moving away from LIBOR to SOFR. The euro is all but cooked as currency!

[papi1980]

I think the combination of 1) rising prices and 2) stagnated economic growth will eventually result is stagflation environment (very similar to the 70s). Stagflation is the best time for gold….better than property, stocks, or even commodities, at least historically. This is because gold has been considered a safe heaven for a very long time and all CB hold a minimum reserve in gold (not oil, wheat or crypto) 
There is a current reduction in liquidity (money is plugged away from stock markets, VC funds etc and pulled into hard assets). 95% of population react in stagflation by cutting spending to pay for food, power, maintain lifestyle, while the wealthier focus on the alternative assets they are comfortable (property, commodities, PM). So people start to get interested in gold, silver  
At the same time, the Money masters are benefitting from gold price volatility and are shorting the paper gold to make some money, but some big whales (some sovereign nations are hoovering the physical gold to counteract the US). Then you add the interest rates and FED. So Gold price in my view is not a one sided equation and they have different forces that affect it. My bet is that physical always beats paper  especially in stagflation, so hold tight and enjoy the ride. 

[LawrenceChard]

9 hours ago, jultorsk said:

(growing and transporting one tomato to supermarket shelf consumes an equivalent of 6 tablespoons of diesel).

I much prefer olive oil on mine!

😎

Edited May 19, 2022 by LawrenceChard