jultorsk

https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/gold--everything-is-correlated-to-1-11082020 The global narrative is that the Fed will stay put through 2022 – leaving “free money” on the table. This is now supported by the incoming fiscal spending which will be north of $1.5 trillion when the deal is reached, taking the deficit to a magical 27% of GDP! Over the last couple of days we have noticed how minute changes to real rates unearth the excessive leverage of the market. For example, gold tanked from $2060 to $1997 an ounce due to a 7-8 bps move against it in real rates. Yes, the positioning is extended, but so are the Fed and government responses, which are both guaranteed to increase in size. So, if 7/8 bps creates this kind of havoc, imagine what would happen if we have an inflation boost, or if the Fed is insistent on not letting interest rates become negative. Failing to do so will increase real rates, which is the actual consequence of expanding debt – i.e. negative growth and inflation as debt increases. Furthermore, as everything is correlated to 1, we are about to violate the very premise on which most of the positioning is done: falling real rates and expanding Federal reserve balance sheet. The Fed balance sheet is falling and real rates are rising, meaning that we are in total violation of the facts and the narrative, which temporarily to me at least is a massive warning sign and a time to consider buying some more puts to safeguard the gains.

Hmm... I heard he's mainly redistributing funds that the congress already has approved (which he can do via EO). The Democrats are now in the rather unenviable position to fight against relief efforts to the low&middle income families. Pelosi herself had suggested cutting payroll tax a few years back. Looking forward to Dems challenging/suing each of the four EOs. In any case, that's my theory for the price drop. 😅

I wonder if the sell off is reflecting the market pricing in that Trump practically secured his 2nd term with the executive orders issued over the weekend. 🤔 That, or the fact I bought 5oz+ last week... impeccable timing 😬

For the 1863 Army&Navy token there's some references here https://www.moderncoinmart.com/1863-united-states-army-navy-civil-war-token-ngc-ms63-rd.html The Bruce token seems to be plentiful (C.G. Bruce, Authorized War Claim Agent, 1863, Cleveland, Ohio. Verso "$100 Bounty, Pensions, Back Pay &c. Collected & Cashed.") The Moore&Brady all I could find is they were in oyster business late 1800s http://www.treasurenet.com/forums/what/131914-moore-brady-baltimore-one-token.html Same for Platt&Co, oyster canning business apparently. These two "oyster" tokens seem the most interesting to me. Maybe https://www.civilwartokens.com could help?

^^What AZ&M said. I'm buying gold. Just gold for as near spot as possible, doesn't need to be scarce/rare or even pretty. Of course there's always an exception to every rule. 😅

^^ Yep, grabbed this inflation adjusted silver pic from Twitter the other day...

Lovely looking half sov (be careful with the staples! 😅). Rotated ones do exist and 'oddities' may attract premium from certain buyers. Surely @drakesterling knows all about these type of coins.

One more bump for non-premium members' sake. 👍 Can entertain an 'o.n.o'. Will be withdrawn by end of the day.

How about... 😁

And now for something completely different... Figured some additional luck won't hurt, so bought this 1853 sixpence. 🍀 😅

Looking to sell this rather fetching NGC PF69 2016 (👈 click link to see the coin) Butler effigy sovereign. Asking £650 SD incl. Coin is in the UK. Does not come with box&COA, sorry. Payment via TransferWise to a UK bank account in GBP. Thanks for looking! 😊

91% gold, 9% silver - all physical. Includes some numismatic bits of gold but I count all as melt; if worse comes to worst it's all the same. 🤷‍♂️

Too quiet on this thread. Lovely weekend ya all! (Check out the tour dates in UK!!)

Heubach (Nürnberg) is good, have done business with them and visited the shop personally.

"A determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation." - Ben Bernanke https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/