Why silver price is going down when we have such inflation?

[theman73]

Why silver price is going down when we have such inflation?

[LawrenceChard]

2 minutes ago, theman73 said:

Why silver price is going down when we have such inflation?

If I understood that, I would be on my superyacht in the Mediterranean (the Caribbean is too hot)!

😎

[modofantasma]

Commodities as a whole have had downward pressure the past couple of months 

[Stacktastic]

it's fabulous. 😛 Bought a kilo physical this week. 
paper contracts is one thing I guess. FOMC tomorrow. 
I also think options might be expiring from Ukraine madness??
im no expert but I get emotion ??

Annoying i bought the GDXJ a few weeks back though. 
Rokie trading.  

There will be a run to metals at some point i the next 10 years. im sure. 

Edited July 26, 2022 by Stacktastic

[James32]

As soon as I see tubes of coins (25 of course) on the forum for £500 a pop.. I will purchase what I need and then give the go-ahead for moon launch 😁 

[Stacktastic]

2 minutes ago, James32 said:

As soon as I see tubes of coins (25 of course) on the forum for £500 a pop.. I will purchase what I need and then give the go-ahead for moon launch 😁 

Thats always been my buy in price. 

Edited July 26, 2022 by Stacktastic

[Pete]

Ask a BBC journalist and they will tell you it is due to Brexit and climate change.

[paulmerton]

43 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

it's fabulous. 😛 Bought a kilo physical this week. 

Same. I bought a "best price" second hand bar on the special scheme, expecting to receive some beaten up Metalor or something like that, but I got a lovely Johnson Matthey bar instead!!

[theman73]

So? The answer is ???

[James32]

29 minutes ago, paulmerton said:

Same. I bought a "best price" second hand bar on the special scheme, expecting to receive some beaten up Metalor or something like that, but I got a lovely Johnson Matthey bar instead!!

From ATS?

[sixgun]

11 minutes ago, theman73 said:

So? The answer is ???

The spot price of silver in USD bottomed on 14th July 2022 - so it hasn't been going down for almost 2 weeks.

[paulmerton]

2 minutes ago, James32 said:

From ATS?

Yep!

[Happypanda88]

1 hour ago, theman73 said:

So? The answer is ???

Is it because there are more people who prefer to stack baked beans than silver ! 🤔 

 

Edited July 27, 2022 by Happypanda88

[James32]

1 minute ago, paulmerton said:

Yep!

When you posted the deal, I put a few in my basket but completely forgot about them🤣🤣

[Zhorro]

6 hours ago, theman73 said:

So? The answer is ???

No, I'm not going to say manipulation...

[theman73]

34 minutes ago, Zhorro said:

No, I'm not going to say manipulation...

How they can manipulate such a huge market then?

[Zhorro]

1 hour ago, theman73 said:

How they can manipulate such a huge market then?

Big players can manipulate big markets:

https://www.adamseconomics.com/post/conquering-silver-market-manipulation

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/29/jp-morgan-settles-spoofing-lawsuit-alleging-fraud-in-metals-trades.html

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4486771-silver-jpmorgan-traders-trial-approaching-sil-provides-leverage-without-time-decay

https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/markets/former-deutsche-bank-traders-convicted-of-trying-to-manipulate-gold-and-silver-prices-1.1083535

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/despite-manipulating-precious-metals-prices-jp-morgan-is-still-at-the-heart-of-the-lbma-sbma-and-comex/

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/white-collar-and-criminal-law/ex-merrill-lynch-gold-traders-found-guilty-in-spoofing-trial

https://bmg-group.com/ex-jp-morgan-silver-traders-guilty-plea-could-boost-manipulation-claim/

https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/dictionary/silver-manipulation/

[MetalMandible]

8 hours ago, theman73 said:

So? The answer is ???

We now live in upside down and backwards land.

[theman73]

• the global physical silver market experienced a net annual market balance deficit in consecutive years of 2019 (63.4 million troy ounces), 2020 (258.1 million troy ounces) and 2021 (116.7 million troy ounces) and is projected to experience another net annual deficit in 2022 (96.5 million troy ounces) when factoring in all forms of industrial and investment (retail and ETP) demand.

[Alex944]

I don't know if this played into the price itself, but I noticed that since the introduction of VAT across the EU (read that as Estonia was finally forced to enforce VAT on silver) in early July, spot for silver specifically dipped about 10%, though the price of purchasing physical silver has stayed relatively similar. Perhaps that's just a price adjustment in the sense that the buying power required for silver stays relatively similar than before VAT introduction. This is specific to EU market though, I don't know if that'd cause an effect on the global silver price, but in terms of buying physical silver from dealers, prices haven't changed that much.

[sixgun]

12 hours ago, theman73 said:

How they can manipulate such a huge market then?

It isn't a huge market - the silver market is tiny.

[sixgun]

9 hours ago, Alex944 said:

I don't know if this played into the price itself, but I noticed that since the introduction of VAT across the EU (read that as Estonia was finally forced to enforce VAT on silver) in early July, spot for silver specifically dipped about 10%, though the price of purchasing physical silver has stayed relatively similar. Perhaps that's just a price adjustment in the sense that the buying power required for silver stays relatively similar than before VAT introduction. This is specific to EU market though, I don't know if that'd cause an effect on the global silver price, but in terms of buying physical silver from dealers, prices haven't changed that much.

The price of retail coins in Europe will have had zero effect on spot prices. Spot is driven by paper traders many of whom have never heard of Estonia or even held a silver coin.

[Lyrinn]

21 hours ago, theman73 said:

Why silver price is going down when we have such inflation?

My two-pence (warning, verbose). Supply and demand.

1) Yes, inflation is going up, so, people who have circa 50oz or less and are more "silver is interesting" or "I only keep a small float for a rainy day" and are probably exiting the market - i.e. selling. Pool of buyers is smaller.

2) The pool is getting smaller. Again, inflation, but, also, a lot more people have been buying silver/gold/metals over the last two-to-three years and are now "maxed out". Pool of buyers is smaller.

3) Some of those people who are "maxed out" are now sitting on their stack because they need the prices to rise again before buying. Pool of buyers is smaller.

4) For your 1% of stacks (circa 250oz of silver) this level of investment has filled the gap in their portfolio, so they no longer need to buy. Pool of buyers is smaller.

5) For those in the over 500oz of silver band (when 50oz of silver is 1oz gold for the sake of argument) this band are longer term stackers, so, while they will buy, with inflation up, they will not be able to buy as much "float". Pool of buyers is smaller.

6) For your "whales" or "big fish" (over 1000oz of silver), these veterans are likely trying to figure out how to get their stacks shifted or wound down. Pool of buyers is smaller.

7) Millennials (guilty by association) don't value "cash" as much, so have the naïve belief that their plastic card is all they need. Gen Z can't afford even basic things, so, forget that group too. Pool of buyers is smaller. 

8) I think, generally, people are starting to withdraw into themselves and buckle down. House prices are starting to cool down, people aren't going abroad as much; heating your home is meant to be 50% more expensive in a few months time, so people are building war chests. Pool of buyers is smaller.

 

Smaller pool of buyers, market slows down.

 

Also, the Sales threads on TSF seem a bit thin on the ground over the past few months - compared to 2021 where it was absolutely insane. This tells me that people are preferring to stick to their guns for now. There's a lot of silver at circa £23/Oz at the moment, and it's struggling to shift.

[theman73]

33 minutes ago, sixgun said:

It isn't a huge market - the silver market is tiny.

The article states that the size of the global annual silver market is equal to $5 trillion.

[James32]

2 minutes ago, Lyrinn said:

My two-pence (warning, verbose). Supply and demand.

1) Yes, inflation is going up, so, people who have circa 50oz or less and are more "silver is interesting" or "I only keep a small float for a rainy day" and are probably exiting the market - i.e. selling. Pool of buyers is smaller.

2) The pool is getting smaller. Again, inflation, but, also, a lot more people have been buying silver/gold/metals over the last two-to-three years and are now "maxed out". Pool of buyers is smaller.

3) Some of those people who are "maxed out" are now sitting on their stack because they need the prices to rise again before buying. Pool of buyers is smaller.

4) For your 1% of stacks (circa 250oz of silver) this level of investment has filled the gap in their portfolio, so they no longer need to buy. Pool of buyers is smaller.

5) For those in the over 500oz of silver band (when 50oz of silver is 1oz gold for the sake of argument) this band are longer term stackers, so, while they will buy, with inflation up, they will not be able to buy as much "float". Pool of buyers is smaller.

6) For your "whales" or "big fish" (over 1000oz of silver), these veterans are likely trying to figure out how to get their stacks shifted or wound down. Pool of buyers is smaller.

7) Millennials (guilty by association) don't value "cash" as much, so have the naïve belief that their plastic card is all they need. Gen Z can't afford even basic things, so, forget that group too. Pool of buyers is smaller. 

😎 I think, generally, people are starting to withdraw into themselves and buckle down. House prices are starting to cool down, people aren't going abroad as much; heating your home is meant to be 50% more expensive in a few months time, so people are building war chests. Pool of buyers is smaller.

 

Smaller pool of buyers, market slows down.

 

Also, the Sales threads on TSF seem a bit thin on the ground over the past few months - compared to 2021 where it was absolutely insane. This tells me that people are preferring to stick to their guns for now. There's a lot of silver at circa £23/Oz at the moment, and it's struggling to shift.

Very thoroughly enjoyable read.