The coming Gold crash

[Martin1983]

46 minutes ago, sixgun said:

@Martin1983The graph shows the number of GC (gold) futures contracts.
These contracts are long and short. One party wants to sell gold (short) and counter party wants to buy (long).
For every short there must be a long.
The holders of contracts are classified into various groups. The commercials are the banks - the speculators are the hedge funds and the like.

You can see the darker bars below the line are the commercials which Net hold the opposite side of the contracts to the light coloured bars above the line - the speculators
If the banks hold a large number of short contracts it generally predicts price will fall. They have deeper pockets, there are fewer of them and they act together - there is a concentration of positions. They are short - want the price to fall and act to drop price by dumping more short contracts into the market. This is the origin of the claims of market manipulation by a small number of banks acting together to move price. Dumping 10's of thousands of contracts into the market over a matter of minutes.

Wonger came to the forum last year stating silver would fall - he based this on the build up of short positions with the banks. Price did fall a bit but nothing like he was predicting. 
Since Wonger predicted the collapse in the gold price the 'open interest' - the number of open contracts held has reduced. You can see the green line - it peaked in mid January and has declined since. We have seen no end of commotion in the paper markets - i think it unlikely banks will want to ramp up short positions. We have seen Scotiabank announce they are pulling out of the gold trade. There has also been mentioned several times that the banks use the COMEX futures market to hedge their positions in the LBMA over the counter market. So they are long in London and short on the COMEX. i have also heard comment that some of the long positions classified as speculators are actually commercial positions on the quiet, so perhaps the short position of the commercials is less than it seems.

Wonger has more recently changed his tack - he says  there is going to be massive deflation. That asset prices and commodities will fall in price. This he believes includes precious metals. 
We will see but i am not with Wonger in his investments.

Excellent breakdown of the graph 👍

[mr-dead]

Applicable to precious metals

 

Edited May 13, 2020 by mr-dead

[silvernewbie]

Gold has hit 1.4k!!  I hope it crashes so I can fill my boots

[Martin1983]

17 hours ago, silvernewbie said:

Gold has hit 1.4k!!  I hope it crashes so I can fill my boots

Is everyone on here waiting on the crash 😂 I am.

Who on this forum is actually buying gold right now?

[HGr]

Still buying a bit each month. 

[MancunianStacker]

3 hours ago, Martin1983 said:

Is everyone on here waiting on the crash 😂 I am.

Who on this forum is actually buying gold right now?

I buy every month, won’t stop at £2k 

[MancunianStacker]

Interestingly the FTSE 100 is down 3.3% just so far today (as I type) but gold is up 1.3% today at the same time.

About time!!

[mr-dead]

31 minutes ago, MancunianStacker said:

I buy every month, won’t stop at £2k 

Ill dump the lot at £2k and spend my remaining time under a covid-19 free palm tree somewhere nice

 

[TheApe]

 

2 hours ago, mr-dead said:

Ill dump the lot at £2k and spend my remaining time under a covid-19 free palm tree somewhere nice

 

Dont do that, bring your Gold with you, it will be the new standard soon, Gold to 10k🤣

[MancunianStacker]

2 minutes ago, TheApe said:

 

Dont do that, bring your Gold with you, it will be the new standard soon, Gold to 10k🤣

No the gold will stay the same, the currency will go to 10k 😉 

It is insurance not and investment 👍🏻 

[Martin1983]

Gold continues to rise and rise.

[PeterPan]

How likely is it that we will actually see a crash soon? Currently holding off buying, but if it's not doing down I may as well get in now 😥

[MancunianStacker]

3 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

How likely is it that we will actually see a crash soon? Currently holding off buying, but if it's not doing down I may as well get in now 😥

I’ve asked myself that but when they are printing all that money, I then ask why would the price go down? The gold stays the same the number of £s or $s needed to buy the same gold go up. Of course this fluctuates (it should be based on demand), so it’s not a good short term buy.

My stack is going alongside two interest only mortgages so when the stack hits the magic figure required to pay off a property that’s when I’ll give it serious thought of selling. Physical asset for physical asset!

Always good to have a cash emergency fund.

Always good to ask how much you’d be prepared to “lose” in fiat should the amount of fiat needed to buy said gold goes down. 10% is about £140 per ounce. How likely is that? That’s the big question and if we knew we’d all be billionaires.

If the economic outlook gets worse, think about the other way around. How much extra fiat will it cost to buy to hat one ounce of gold. Maybe set a rolling stop loss based on its highest “price” under your ownership.

[Martin1983]

41 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

How likely is it that we will actually see a crash soon? Currently holding off buying, but if it's not doing down I may as well get in now 😥

This is our dilemma.

[HGr]

I would rather have and regret buying until it comes down again, than wait and regret not buying til it comes down again.

[Kman]

7 hours ago, PeterPan said:

How likely is it that we will actually see a crash soon? Currently holding off buying, but if it's not doing down I may as well get in now 😥

I've changed my mind recently

A stock market crash and recession seems looming 

Gold is the the obvious safe place for displaced money to flock to

How long will it take to come out of recession? at least a couple years if not more with how dire things are looking

Stocks have been rising since 2009 into a big 11 year bubble

Gold has only been rising since 2015, five years isn't a very long cycle

I think we have  3 more years of gold prices rising, levelling out for 2 years while the economy and stocks start to recover, then falling off

I didn't realise how bullish I now am on gold until I wrote this lol 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Kman

[Hennypenny]

21 hours ago, Martin1983 said:

Is everyone on here waiting on the crash 😂 I am.

Who on this forum is actually buying gold right now?

Someone must be, because they're all sold out?

[MancunianStacker]

A great video if you have a spare 40 mins today:

What did happen in 1971 to Gold????

[dicker]

Gold still crashing upwards....

No “rinse and repeat” happening here (see previous parts of this thread by Wronger)
 

Best

Dicker

[Metalisreal]

Now with talk about a second round of US stimulus taking place frankly I see no end in sight. Gold, in my opinion, could easily top US$3,000/oz. in the not too distant future. I already spent half of my check on gold and will do it again if the time comes.   

[Metallurgic]

In my opinion gold price will keep rising for the next couple of years as the economic climate will probably worsen in a years time.

Bought some fractional gold in April and early May but I will try not to until it consolidates to a lower price.

Unfortunately covid was/is a big catalyst for gold and I do not foresee a big crash anytime soon

I wish I am wrong so I can buy some more, as I am not properly positioned in pms

[GoldenWafer]

On 14/05/2020 at 11:56, MancunianStacker said:

I’ve asked myself that but when they are printing all that money, I then ask why would the price go down? The gold stays the same the number of £s or $s needed to buy the same gold go up. Of course this fluctuates (it should be based on demand), so it’s not a good short term buy.

My stack is going alongside two interest only mortgages so when the stack hits the magic figure required to pay off a property that’s when I’ll give it serious thought of selling. Physical asset for physical asset!

Always good to have a cash emergency fund.

Always good to ask how much you’d be prepared to “lose” in fiat should the amount of fiat needed to buy said gold goes down. 10% is about £140 per ounce. How likely is that? That’s the big question and if we knew we’d all be billionaires.

If the economic outlook gets worse, think about the other way around. How much extra fiat will it cost to buy to hat one ounce of gold. Maybe set a rolling stop loss based on its highest “price” under your ownership.

We might all be "billionaires" anyway if they keep printing. 😅 The fact that there are "billionaires" in the first place should be an alarm-bell in and of itself when it comes to currency devaluation.

[GoldenWafer]

6 hours ago, Metalisreal said:

Now with talk about a second round of US stimulus taking place frankly I see no end in sight. Gold, in my opinion, could easily top US$3,000/oz. in the not too distant future. I already spent half of my check on gold and will do it again if the time comes.   

Stimulus -> Gold. I spent the first one on gold, and I will spend the second one on gold. Third one? Gold. Fourth? Gold. Gold? More gold.

[MancunianStacker]

I’ll just leave this here...

 

[GoldenWafer]

1 hour ago, MancunianStacker said:

I’ll just leave this here...

Remember these guys?

 

EDIT: 0:29-0:34 is pure gold, pun intended.

Edited May 16, 2020 by GoldenWafer