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Kman

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Kman last won the day on May 31 2019

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  1. I was looking at a zoomed out gold, I drew in a bottom trend line starting 2006 You can copy that line and it fits in very well, too well to be coincidence A zoomed in part of the bottom on a shorter time frame you can see the line acted at a 3 year resistance 16-19 before it finally broke through and became a buying area, even during the liquidity crisis Or you look at a line acting as support/resistance in 2020 and follow it up and it was the top for the 2020 high.. This isn't really useful for anything other tha
  2. I think banks and large money will further position into safety instead of lending or investing into the real economy A next trigger could be covid vaccines failing yep or an insolvency crisis or liquidity, nothing has changed since March; the world is too connected, maybe the US might handle things great from here but if dominos start falling in Asia or Europe everywhere else will come down too Maybe it will just be government taking their foot off the gas with stimulus and mortgage holidays and loan deferrals as you say, I'm struggling to see how they're ever going to stop doing it
  3. To think gold will drop 50% you would have to be incredibly optimistic that the global economy is going to bounce back I could see gold maybe coming down 10-15% in the short term as stimulus and vaccines hopes continue But for all the problems under the surface in the economy and monetary system it seems far more like gold will be 50%+ higher in two years
  4. They're roughly the same as normal treasury yields which historically only go down This is 10 year inflation securities, 10 year yields and gold (orange) flipped vertical to see the correlation If I had to guess I think they will rise modestly from here bringing gold down until at some point an event happens, whether that be an insolvency or liquidity crisis or both, which will again plummet yields and get gold going again ,
  5. GGP have ownership of currently I think 30% of 3.25moz of gold in the ground and counting, that's not cash but it's a very valuable asset Thankfully the other 70% is owned by Newcrest who are ponying up the liquid cash needed to turn it into a functional mine and they have Telfer nearby to process things https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/GGP/us-65m-farm-in-agreement-with-newcrest-at-havieron/13998113?lang=en https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2020-11/201130_Newcrest signs Havieron Joint Venture Agreement - Market Release.pdf Newcrest Mining Limited
  6. I don't think it's anything to do with crypto I've posted this before but my guess is that banks or other big financial institutions have a program running tracking 10 year inflation securities When they go lower it triggers gold buys, when it goes higher it triggers sells gold can get a little bit away due to speculation or for short term fear but this chart is just undeniable Yields have been rising lately (modestly in the big scheme of things) on senate seats and what that means for fiscal bills being passed
  7. Does stimulus hurt the dollar? The US isn't the only country doing QE and stimulus, how does that effect those countries and their currencies? Isn't the EU passing stimulus bills? why is the euro elevated? That is totally wrong to the point of being annoying
  8. Wasn't Bitcoin the best investment of the past decade? One of the best of 2020?
  9. Where is the hyper inflation coming from? As said above the west is following the Japanese model where the central bank and government try and prop everything up https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj/bank-of-japans-balance-sheet-now-larger-than-countrys-gdp-idUSKCN1NI07Z https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Bank-of-Japan-to-be-top-shareholder-of-Japan-stocks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-28/japan-s-long-deflation-battle-is-warning-for-post-virus-world Banks know better than us - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USGSEC You don't'
  10. Article is a joke 😎 " Today, Treasury yields are going up, oil is going up, and the Dollar is going down. This is a huge reversal. When I see a market where interest rates are rising and the currency is falling, alarm bells go off, This is what you would see in a sick emerging market" 10 year yields coming off a bottom still lower than any other point in history 😐 that's a huge reversal? Oil, production already largely cut and now Saudis having to willingly cut 1 million barrel per day more because they don't like what they see in demand Dollar (Dxy) still high
  11. Not sure what you mean by updating, just overlayed or live?, you can get a chart of gold vs bitcoin live - https://uk.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-XAUBTC/ If you overlay gold on bitcoin in pounds it's a bit misleading because they're relative to themselves The big gold (orange) move up is 35% but bitcoin (pink) is 450% If you overlay them as purely percentages gold looks like a flat line because bitcoin has gone up so much
  12. good question The demand/supply for silver is pretty much the same now as 2011 and I don't remember it being too much of a problem then so I guess it would be ok
  13. I'm guessing gold and silver went up for fear that there wouldn't be a peaceful transition of power in the US Now that's all but assured they're easing off
  14. If you really wanted to talk about in-depth I think you would need to go through how the global monetary system works aka Eurodollar, repo market, collateral is gold a fear or inflation asset 2007/8 financial crisis commercial bank behaviour since 2008 central banks, QE and bank reserves bond yields economic outlook going forward
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