The coming Gold crash

[Wonger]

5 hours ago, OneBlueSummer said:

where would you throw $5k for medium to safe risk highest yield in 6 months?

I personally would not be short equities until SPX $3328 and the short 30 year UST is not a short term trade, so I have a choice of long equities until SPX $3328 then short, or right now short WTI and long Tankers TNK, STNG, LPG, EURN, DHT, TNK and STNG are the bang for the buck (just look at charts) but we decided to also include LPG, EURN and DHT as they diversify the risk somewhat, however on a 6 Month time frame I expect I would be fine holding the Cash also for increased purchasing power as Gold is going down!

Edited April 15, 2020 by Wonger

[Oldun]

Up day yesterday in equities. All frothing over the inevitable return towards a better economical environment, which is basically zero right now so anything is better than now.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Oldun

[Arganto]

I wasn't going to chime in on this thread, all the acronyms and charts make me think of sunny afternoons stuck sat around a large table with other folk wearing over priced silk ties wishing I was rolling on the floor with the happy Labrador outside; it's headache inducing. However, as someone who doesn't and never has actively traded in the markets I must ask; how can projections over the worth of commodities/equities etc be made reliably using data from trends in the markets during times of such unpredictability? I know any given weekday suffers from unpredictability but a global economic (almost) shutdown, a maybe it is maybe it isn't deadly pandemic, military movements covered by questionable stories, mass protests worldwide only stymied by social distancing rules, mass currency 'printing' and hugely bloated housing and debt bubbles all going on at the same time...to plot a chart and say "well it's obvious isn't it?" seems unlikely at best, unless you happen to be a major string puller of course. I'm not disparaging anyone's comments, thoughts or advice just wondering my own thoughts in writing...for me, times like this suggest hedging into something real, or tangible at least. 

[Wonger]

28 minutes ago, Liam84 said:

I wasn't going to chime in on this thread, all the acronyms and charts make me think of sunny afternoons stuck sat around a large table with other folk wearing over priced silk ties wishing I was rolling on the floor with the happy Labrador outside; it's headache inducing. However, as someone who doesn't and never has actively traded in the markets I must ask; how can projections over the worth of commodities/equities etc be made reliably using data from trends in the markets during times of such unpredictability? I know any given weekday suffers from unpredictability but a global economic (almost) shutdown, a maybe it is maybe it isn't deadly pandemic, military movements covered by questionable stories, mass protests worldwide only stymied by social distancing rules, mass currency 'printing' and hugely bloated housing and debt bubbles all going on at the same time...to plot a chart and say "well it's obvious isn't it?" seems unlikely at best, unless you happen to be a major string puller of course. I'm not disparaging anyone's comments, thoughts or advice just wondering my own thoughts in writing...for me, times like this suggest hedging into something real, or tangible at least. 

The markets are only very very lightly related to the economy and thats because the markets are rigged to fool the masses and economic figures are pure lies thrown in for good measure, so dont worry, were not rocket scientist far from it, its all about controlling risk and losses just like a blackjack player, its actually very mundane and not at all exciting as seen one chart seen them all and Im in T Shirt and Flip Flops 😁  

Edited April 15, 2020 by Wonger

[Mox]

What happens if some countries get away from the dollar? Several have tried and then been invaded by the USA as part of the effort to stop them.

[Martlet]

15 minutes ago, Wonger said:

The markets are only very very lightly related to the economy...

So how else do you explain the recent falls other than in direct reaction to business suspension and lockdowns, killing earnings and economic activity.  What do the markets follow if not the economy, in your view?

Edited April 15, 2020 by Martlet

[Wonger]

42 minutes ago, Martlet said:

So how else do you explain the recent falls other than in direct reaction to business suspension and lockdowns, killing earnings and economic activity.  What do the markets follow if not the economy, in your view?

Same as I can explain any days market moves, sometimes they are related to economic news events and sometimes not because they simply can not make up enough excuses at the end of each day to explain away the moves, traders know the economic news events are just a way to try and explain market moves to the masses when those moves have nothing to do with the economic news events, WTI recent rally for an example thats already fallen back 50%, but the oil cut remains, it was an announcement to explain away a short busting rally that destroyed any shorts from $31 down that were sitting pretty or they thought and thats why we shorted into it at the close on the Friday and again on Thursday's crazy action above $31 as bottoms do not look like that in general   

Edited April 15, 2020 by Wonger

[Martin1983]

13 hours ago, Wonger said:

Increased Gold June futures shorts today at $1785, same old story, were going down and nothing has changed, lets get ready to rumble!  

I was going to buy gold, between wonger, harry dent, and mike maloney, I don’t know what to do ahhaa, I will hold for the time being.

[Martin1983]

13 hours ago, Wonger said:

You be quite correct, were now shorting like bandits, the rally was impressive in the June futures (not so much spot) i admit, but not as impressive as the sell off thats coming now!

Although, I do think you are hoping for a slump in gold more so than factual evidence, & going by past records is not as relevant today due to the amount of money being printed and pushing people towards gold and silver. 

[Wonger]

10 minutes ago, Martin1983 said:

Although, I do think you are hoping for a slump in gold more so than factual evidence, & going by past records is not as relevant today due to the amount of money being printed and pushing people towards gold and silver. 

Entirely agree that the amount of currency printing would lead you to believe that inflation is coming and fast, but the debt defaults dwarf this, I notice the Spot Futures difference is now down to just $26 having been $60 just 48 hours ago, I view that as bearish as the speculators have obviously stopped buying and the commercials are making their move on them 

Edited April 15, 2020 by Wonger

[Mox]

US Mint suspends gold coin production along with silver. Will that have much effect?

[Uksilverstackers]

5 hours ago, Mox said:

US Mint suspends gold coin production along with silver. Will that have much effect?

Not a lot if you mean regarding paper price. 3 major refiners shutdown in Switzerland didnt do squat. Guess it might raise the premium on physical US Mint stuff.

Edited April 17, 2020 by Uksilverstackers

[Wonger]

7 hours ago, Mox said:

US Mint suspends gold coin production along with silver. Will that have much effect?

275,000 net commercial futures shorts wont worry too much!

[Chorlton]

58 minutes ago, Wonger said:

275,000 net commercial futures shorts wont worry too much!

Based on this and your previous comment on what date do you expect this to take effect and what is a rough range for the gold price then ?

[OneBlueSummer]

My question is, how many pounds are y'all gonna buy when it hits 800$?

Does anyone sell a 1lb brick? A Scottsdale stacker round of 1lb gold would be amazing to look at.

[OneBlueSummer]

On 24/03/2020 at 13:20, Wonger said:

Sixgun yes correct and your not on the same side as JPM and Goldman, thats your trouble! 

I think I understand this but please clarify, as I read the article you posted https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/goldman-gold-time-buy-currency-last-resort

And Goldman says buy buy.. for now, also kinda contradicted himself a couple times. But the majority was buy now, so are you saying he is just full of c**p and do the opposite of what he says to do?

Or are there other articles where JPM and Goldman are actually saying/and or proof of them shorting the market?

Even though they hold 100's of millions in PM. I can understand why they would want to pump and dump... so when everyone else looses there but when this financial impact really subsides they will still be holding the paper to buy unlimited PM.

[dicker]

Meanwhile, In the real world, depending on which variety of oil you trade, and where you take delivery the price has dropped 99 percent today.

Some oil trading negative.  If you own a supertanker that can take 2 million barrels, the oil producers will pay you about USD40 million to take it. 
 

Best

Dicker

[MancunianStacker]

17 minutes ago, dicker said:

Meanwhile, In the real world, depending on which variety of oil you trade, and where you take delivery the price has dropped 99 percent today.

Some oil trading negative.  If you own a supertanker that can take 2 million barrels, the oil producers will pay you about USD40 million to take it. 
 

Best

Dicker

How much are super tankers and where can I get one 😉 

[AuricGoldfinger]

How does that even work 😂 

[dicker]

I think the key is that you have to be able to take delivery. There is nowhere in the US left to store oil.....coupled with low demand

[Auricsstash]

Bet wonger turns up and tells everyone he was shorting oil 🤣 

[Michal]

5 hours ago, dicker said:

Meanwhile, In the real world, depending on which variety of oil you trade, and where you take delivery the price has dropped 99 percent today.

Some oil trading negative.  If you own a supertanker that can take 2 million barrels, the oil producers will pay you about USD40 million to take it. 
 

Best

Dicker

If thy do that with gold I got huge backyard and will even rent a lory to grab it. 

  😁

[Oldun]

Got to say, great call re storage by Wonger.....

[Uksilverstackers]

14 hours ago, Auricsstash said:

Bet wonger turns up and tells everyone he was shorting oil 🤣 

Not sure about that but he did mention he was long oil storage. 

[Auricsstash]

Just now, Uksilverstackers said:

Not sure about that but he did mention he was long oil storage. 

A strategy that was all over zerohedge Bloomberg and pretty much any investing site days before...