Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[flyingveepixie]

14 minutes ago, sjhdesmond said:

I can try to explain it with gold as the example.

 

Let's say I'm super confident that the price of gold is going to go way down. How can I make money from that?

"Hey Flying Vee Pixie, lend me that 1oz gold bar of yours, I'll give it back to you in a month"

So you give me your bar. I immediately sell it on the silver forum for £1500. 

One month later, the price of gold is down at £1300, so the day I'm supposed to give you it back, I buy another 1oz gold bar from Lawrence Chard or someone at that day's price of £1300. 

I give you 1oz of gold back as agreed. And I keep the £200 profit.

 

That's an oversimplified explanation of shorting. As others have said there are borrowing fees, and imaginary shares etc. But that is the principle of how someone makes money from the price going down.

Superb and simple explanation.  So it's all just a big gamble really.   I kind of understand how it works now but it raises the next set of big questions which are

1. how they are so consistently lucky on an apparent gamble?

2. do they have some kind of insider information that none of us little folk have?

3. How can they actually DRIVE the price down by doing this shorting thing, because that's what they seem to do and consistently get away with...?

Apologies for all the dumb questions...

Edited April 30, 2022 by flyingveepixie

[silversky]

1 minute ago, flyingveepixie said:

Superb and simple explanation.  I understand it now.

The paper markets for metals allow miners to sell their silver today, and then supply it in a couple of months time.  So the miners in a way can be considered as shorting the market.  They are sellers.  But they don't really care what the price does after they've sold their contract to supply, because they've committed to honour the contract at that price and deliver the Silver after they've got it out the ground.

The complication comes in where other investors are allowed to trade those contracts between the miners and the consumers.  Because these are paper contracts, other investors can buy and sell those paper contracts without having to handle the dirty metal stuff at all.  That all sounds well and good if it was just like that, but it's not.  What is allowed, is for large investors to sell contracts effectively as if they were miners and going to supply, and then to close the contracts out by buying other contracts back before they have to make the delivery. The contracts come into existence and go out of existence without any of that promised future Silver ever leaving the ground.

This could obviously get a bit crazy, so its supposedly kept in check by backing the made up paper contracts against a bunch of real ounces sat in a vault in the COMEX (the exchange who make the paper contracts), just in case any of the buyers of the made up paper contracts, actually want the dirty metal.   Even that sounds sort of okay in principle, but like everything in the financial world, the further you get away from the basic deal of two people bartering a commodity amongst themselves (capitalism rather than financialism), the shadier things get.

The amount of real Silver sat in that vault backing the temporary paper you would imagine should be about 1 : 1 ratio.  But it's not.  It like bank loan leverage, and it has been allowed to climb to very high multiples.  The excuse is that no one want's the real stuff so there won't ever be a bunch of claims on it all at once.  I seem to remember reading somewhere that there were around 400 potential claims for every real ounce sat in that vault.  Not exactly a stable position.  This is the reason for the monkeying around near the end of a delivery month.  Sometimes, more paper contracts are blasted into existence to try to push the price around before the close.  If you can print up imaginary metal in vast amounts, you can force the paper price of that metal down, making a fortune.  It also fleeces the miners, who often end up having to sell at low prices in the subdued paper market, while the financial industry "wizards" in nice offices make bank with ones and zeros.

The system is creaking and groaning under the weight of the parasites.  It's unclear how much longer this imaginary future product market can continue.  The leverage is what makes it a joke.  It's unfixable, and it needs to be swept away.  But that isn't going to happen until the entire system melts down for real.  And Central bankers will bet all of our lives away before they roll over and accept that.

[flyingveepixie]

1 hour ago, silversky said:

The paper markets for metals allow miners to sell their silver today, and then supply it in a couple of months time.  So the miners in a way can be considered as shorting the market.  They are sellers.  But they don't really care what the price does after they've sold their contract to supply, because they've committed to honour the contract at that price and deliver the Silver after they've got it out the ground.

The complication comes in where other investors are allowed to trade those contracts between the miners and the consumers.  Because these are paper contracts, other investors can buy and sell those paper contracts without having to handle the dirty metal stuff at all.  That all sounds well and good if it was just like that, but it's not.  What is allowed, is for large investors to sell contracts effectively as if they were miners and going to supply, and then to close the contracts out by buying other contracts back before they have to make the delivery. The contracts come into existence and go out of existence without any of that promised future Silver ever leaving the ground.

This could obviously get a bit crazy, so its supposedly kept in check by backing the made up paper contracts against a bunch of real ounces sat in a vault in the COMEX (the exchange who make the paper contracts), just in case any of the buyers of the made up paper contracts, actually want the dirty metal.   Even that sounds sort of okay in principle, but like everything in the financial world, the further you get away from the basic deal of two people bartering a commodity amongst themselves (capitalism rather than financialism), the shadier things get.

The amount of real Silver sat in that vault backing the temporary paper you would imagine should be about 1 : 1 ratio.  But it's not.  It like bank loan leverage, and it has been allowed to climb to very high multiples.  The excuse is that no one want's the real stuff so there won't ever be a bunch of claims on it all at once.  I seem to remember reading somewhere that there were around 400 potential claims for every real ounce sat in that vault.  Not exactly a stable position.  This is the reason for the monkeying around near the end of a delivery month.  Sometimes, more paper contracts are blasted into existence to try to push the price around before the close.  If you can print up imaginary metal in vast amounts, you can force the paper price of that metal down, making a fortune.  It also fleeces the miners, who often end up having to sell at low prices in the subdued paper market, while the financial industry "wizards" in nice offices make bank with ones and zeros.

The system is creaking and groaning under the weight of the parasites.  It's unclear how much longer this imaginary future product market can continue.  The leverage is what makes it a joke.  It's unfixable, and it needs to be swept away.  But that isn't going to happen until the entire system melts down for real.  And Central bankers will bet all of our lives away before they roll over and accept that.

Sounds like fiat silver..!

[Stacktastic]

6 hours ago, papi1980 said:

so imagine, you have borrowed 1bn$ GameStop, naked shorting with the hope to drop the price and close it next day; someone buys all available shares and you can’t close the short

That explains a lot. so low float stocks. 

6 hours ago, papi1980 said:

Thanks @flyingveepixie I personally decided long ago to not engage in shorting
 follow your instincts 

Me too and it just does not feel right.
I stay out when its time to short or gather positions for bounces. 
Natural Gas & Apple would be nice to short but I just dont like it. 
Strange as its just the opposite of normal trading, especially with ETF's. 

5 hours ago, Gruff said:

Think of the banks manipulation as an opportunity to put some of your savings into physical PMs.

Totally. I can see $30 silver but not before it goes back to $12. Its horrendously undervalued in real terms. 
Thequestion is will the bubble burst and will the high price be sustained and not brought backdown again?? 

5 hours ago, Gruff said:

Agreed, Cathie's ARK pool if full of "cutting edge" tech companies. FAANG stocks and the like. Look at some of them...

Facebook (Meta) down 40.92% YTD
Apple down 13.45% YTD
Amazon down 27.32% YTD
Netflix down 68.19% YTD

Dont forget Teledoc - down 40% this week - she loaded up at the top & owns $1billion in shares. 
She sold Tesla to buy more Teledoc on Thursday - but it cost her $400 in losses!!
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/teladoc-stock-price-implosion-1q-earnings-ark-invest-cathie-wood-2022-4?op=1 
I bought too & Im already up 10% already as I bought at major support. 

Teledoc. If my maths is correct ($170/$33) she is 500% underwater with a billion $ of investors money. 
She should change her name to 'CathiesTitanic'
 

I watch her videos (as I find her strangely attractive) and she is not thick is she!! 
Why buy a bunch of stocks that are grossly over valued already??
Especially as you have a team of experts on hand as advisors - does not add up!! 

Her Tesla predictions are interesting - £4,500 by 2026 - seriously?? 
People are still buying Tesla it was the only thing green yesterday!! 
https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/arks-tesla-model/

I might start keeping my eye on the scottish mortgage in investment trust by BG. 
Similar and not run by a bell end. 

If I am reading this right her cost average on Cloudfare is $120 on a $80 stock? 

Edited April 30, 2022 by Stacktastic

[DarkChameleon]

9 hours ago, flyingveepixie said:

@HerefordBullyun@papi1980Ah thanks guys.  I'll have to read over both of your posts several times to try to make it sink in as I still can't get my head around it.  How can you make a profit by buying loads of something for which the selling price then falls?  Maybe I'm too thick for this game 

It's like financial legaleze, a way to stop mortals from doing the same thing, with silver its a case of people buying and selling ether silver from the etc hedge funds who can sell 100% but only own 10% where as if we sell our silver its backed by 100% silver and we suffer the buy sell that they drop by loads for interbanking and inter investment brokerages...cos they are buying promises and not actual silver...its a game of smoke and mirrors and if they get kept hanging owing a million ounces their contracts give them decades to deliver so they got a long time to buy or raise the cash to get the physical stuff, we get knees broke if it's longer then a week, if we could create etfs using our silver we coukd sell and by at 10x the value of our stacks, I aging us trying to manipulate the value of it then, where every penny of cent we make is times 10?.

[SilverPlatinum]

Precious metals spot prices are down because people lost money in the stock market and they have to cover their margin calls. That what I have heard on CNBC TV today.

So nothing fundamentally wrong with precious metals. Probably it's good prices to stack more (if the premiums are low).

 

[Gruff]

2 minutes ago, SilverPlatinum said:

Precious metals spot prices are down because people lost money in the stock market and they have to cover their margin calls. That what I have heard on CNBC TV today.

So nothing fundamentally wrong with precious metals. Probably it's good prices to stack more (if the premiums are low).

 

Agreed, but everything is puking at the moment. The financial collapse in real time

[SilverPlatinum]

1 minute ago, Gruff said:

Agreed, but everything is puking at the moment. The financial collapse in real time

Even if worldwide financial systems collapse. Gold and Silver will be valued and trusted even if their paper spot price is 0.

 

 

[LawrenceChard]

On 30/04/2022 at 10:45, sjhdesmond said:

One month later, the price of gold is down at £1300, so the day I'm supposed to give you it back, I buy another 1oz gold bar from Lawrence Chard or someone at that day's price of £1300. 

 

... or someone ...

Is there anyone else?

😎

[LawrenceChard]

I guess many silver bugs have been watching the Gold:Silver ratio.

I have, although not always daily.

It had been hovering around 75 to 80 for a few months, but I see it is currently 84.205, which makes it an even better buy than it has been.

Or course, we may never see 124:1 again, and I for one won't be waiting.

😎

[Rains]

3 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

I guess many silver bugs have been watching the Gold:Silver ratio.

I have, although not always daily.

It had been hovering around 75 to 80 for a few months, but I see it is currently 84.205, which makes it an even better buy than it has been.

Or course, we may never see 124:1 again, and I for one won't be waiting.

😎

To clarify the radio would i be right in thinking 84oz silver  to 1oz of gold still learning 

[LawrenceChard]

3 hours ago, Rains said:

To clarify the radio would i be right in thinking 84oz silver  to 1oz of gold still learning 

Yes indeed, or whatever weight you want to use.

https://www.chards.co.uk/gold-silver-ratio

Should answer most questions.

Although if you heard it on the radio, it might need re-tuning!

😎

Edited May 9, 2022 by LawrenceChard

[scotwasp]

As another “still learning” member, I was wondering at what ratio the “the sage of TSF” @LawrenceChard 😉 would buy silver and when would he buy gold (if he were a new stacker) 

I am sure everyone has different opinions but I would genuinely appreciate your thinking? 

[LawrenceChard]

16 minutes ago, scotwasp said:

As another “still learning” member, I was wondering at what ratio the “the sage of TSF” @LawrenceChard 😉 would buy silver and when would he buy gold (if he were a new stacker) 

I am sure everyone has different opinions but I would genuinely appreciate your thinking? 

I might just prefer platinum!

But 80:1 plus is cheap for silver.

You might like to read this:

https://taxfreegold.co.uk/goldsilverratioshistoric1970onward.html

😎

[Stacktastic]

9 hours ago, LawrenceChard said:

I might just prefer platinum!

I miss my 1oz platinum. Such a nice solid metal. 
Hoping it gets back to £650 at some point.

[LawrenceChard]

22 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

I miss my 1oz platinum. Such a nice solid metal. 
Hoping it gets back to £650 at some point.

There is probably more chance of me being elected as the next President of the USA.

 

[LawrenceChard]

11 hours ago, LawrenceChard said:

I might just prefer platinum!

But 80:1 plus is cheap for silver.

You might like to read this:

https://taxfreegold.co.uk/goldsilverratioshistoric1970onward.html

😎

However, I would still buy gold as an investment because it's VAT exempt.

Paying 20% VAT on platinum or silver as an investment does not make much sense.

The main exception to this is if you are investing enough to warrant buying it for offshore storage, which involves paying storage fees.

The other exception is if you like owning, seeing, touching, a few nice silver coins, but then you are a collector / stacker, rather than an investor.

😎

[stefffana]

4 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

There is probably more chance of me being elected as the next President of the USA.

 

This is your deepest dream, Lawrence?

I think you are already too old for this...

[HerefordBullyun]

7 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

There is probably more chance of me being elected as the next President of the USA.

 

Vote for Lawrence! Yes vote for Lawrence! you would do such a better job!

You will get a stamp of approval from me, @SilverDrum and @GoldDiggerDave albeit it will be from Edens gentleman's club!

[LawrenceChard]

14 minutes ago, stefffana said:

This is your deepest dream, Lawrence?

I think you are already too old for this...

Dream? - no, nightmare - yes

Too old - no, still too young.

I would not even qualify, as I think you have to be "Born in the USA", although I bet the first one wasn't.

😎

[LemmyMcGregor]

You can do it! I've seen the flags!

Edited May 10, 2022 by LemmyMcGregor

[silversky]

Interesting to see how platinum has reacted to the news on Sunday.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-increase-tariffs-russian-platinum-palladium-new-sanctions-2022-05-08/

With the announcement that Britain would be applying a 35% tariff to Platinum and Palladium, it's interesting to examine how their prices have reacted.  Down initially with Silver on Monday, but they have now diverged and are rising.

I'm not really sure how Britain alone charging its own consumers an extra 35% for Russian Platinum and Palladium, will make any difference.  It appears to me that the only effect will be that the UK economy will run short of Platinum and Palladium, or have to put in place very strong commitments from South Africa.  The Chinese will no doubt buy it at a slight discount from Russia.

The scrap car market is an interesting proxy for the price of physical.  One year ago, I could scrap my old banger for £300.  Three months ago that was up at just under £400.  After the war started it reached £585 then fell back to £550.  I'll have to get another quote again, but I imagine that the application of a 35% tariff can't have done much to alleviate the pressure on those metals.  As far as the overall price on the world market, I can't see that changing much to be fair.  If the UK ends up sourcing all its Platinum demand from scrap cars and South Africa, the Chinese would have to be muscled out of some of their supply from there.  If so, they'll just increase their deliveries from Russia.

It seems to me that the same amount of Platinum will get used worldwide (after all the old cars in the UK have been stolen and crushed (yes that's happening!!)).  And the impact on the global price won't be terribly large.  The UK consumer will lose out to higher prices when manufacturers (if we have any left) are forced to source it from Russia.  The Chinese will resist fully any attempt to lower their supply from South Africa to facilitate increasing the UK supply, and we'll end up recycling things that aren't old enough to be recycled.

All in all, I expect little change to the price because of this move, unless it becomes a western wide push, in which case, car manufacturing in the west will take a massive hit.  Interesting times to see tariffs used as offensive weapons.  They're normally applied as defensive strategies, to protect a domestic market.  But in this case they are being applied without heed to the result domestically.  Most foolish in my opinion.  I expect the local price of physical to end up higher than the published paper price.  One to watch...

Edited May 10, 2022 by silversky
spelling

[GoldStandardPartyUK]

 

1 hour ago, silversky said:

Interesting to see how platinum has reacted to the news on Sunday.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-increase-tariffs-russian-platinum-palladium-new-sanctions-2022-05-08/

With the announcement that Britain would be applying a 35% tariff to Platinum and Palladium, it's interesting to examine how their prices have reacted.  Down initially with Silver on Monday, but they have now diverged and are rising.

I'm not really sure how Britain alone charging its own consumers an extra 35% for Russian Platinum and Palladium, will make any difference.  It appears to me that the only effect will be that the UK economy will run short of Platinum and Palladium, or have to put in place very strong commitments from South Africa.  The Chinese will no doubt buy it at a slight discount from Russia.

The scrap car market is an interesting proxy for the price of physical.  One year ago, I could scrap my old banger for £300.  Three months ago that was up at just under £400.  After the war started it reached £585 then fell back to £550.  I'll have to get another quote again, but I imagine that the application of a 35% tariff can't have done much to alleviate the pressure on those metals.  As far as the overall price on the world market, I can't see that changing much to be fair.  If the UK ends up sourcing all its Platinum demand from scrap cars and South Africa, the Chinese would have to be muscled out of some of their supply from there.  If so, they'll just increase their deliveries from Russia.

It seems to me that the same amount of Platinum will get used worldwide (after all the old cars in the UK have been stolen and crushed (yes that's happening!!)).  And the impact on the global price won't be terribly large.  The UK consumer will lose out to higher prices when manufacturers (if we have any left) are forced to source it from Russia.  The Chinese will resist fully any attempt to lower their supply from South Africa to facilitate increasing the UK supply, and we'll end up recycling things that aren't old enough to be recycled.

All in all, I expect little change to the price because of this move, unless it becomes a western wide push, in which case, car manufacturing in the west will take a massive hit.  Interesting times to see tariffs used as offensive weapons.  They're normally applied as defensive strategies, to protect a domestic market.  But in this case they are being applied without heed to the result domestically.  Most foolish in my opinion.  I expect the local price of physical to end up higher than the published paper price.  One to watch...

Thanks for this. 

What a giant mistake this is, what a reversal, what a tit-up

[Minimalist]

I love how the West is under the illusion Russia cant maneuver these tariffs. The derangement and schizophrenia is off the scales.

[HerefordBullyun]

3 hours ago, silversky said:

Interesting to see how platinum has reacted to the news on Sunday.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-increase-tariffs-russian-platinum-palladium-new-sanctions-2022-05-08/

With the announcement that Britain would be applying a 35% tariff to Platinum and Palladium, it's interesting to examine how their prices have reacted.  Down initially with Silver on Monday, but they have now diverged and are rising.

I'm not really sure how Britain alone charging its own consumers an extra 35% for Russian Platinum and Palladium, will make any difference.  It appears to me that the only effect will be that the UK economy will run short of Platinum and Palladium, or have to put in place very strong commitments from South Africa.  The Chinese will no doubt buy it at a slight discount from Russia.

The scrap car market is an interesting proxy for the price of physical.  One year ago, I could scrap my old banger for £300.  Three months ago that was up at just under £400.  After the war started it reached £585 then fell back to £550.  I'll have to get another quote again, but I imagine that the application of a 35% tariff can't have done much to alleviate the pressure on those metals.  As far as the overall price on the world market, I can't see that changing much to be fair.  If the UK ends up sourcing all its Platinum demand from scrap cars and South Africa, the Chinese would have to be muscled out of some of their supply from there.  If so, they'll just increase their deliveries from Russia.

It seems to me that the same amount of Platinum will get used worldwide (after all the old cars in the UK have been stolen and crushed (yes that's happening!!)).  And the impact on the global price won't be terribly large.  The UK consumer will lose out to higher prices when manufacturers (if we have any left) are forced to source it from Russia.  The Chinese will resist fully any attempt to lower their supply from South Africa to facilitate increasing the UK supply, and we'll end up recycling things that aren't old enough to be recycled.

All in all, I expect little change to the price because of this move, unless it becomes a western wide push, in which case, car manufacturing in the west will take a massive hit.  Interesting times to see tariffs used as offensive weapons.  They're normally applied as defensive strategies, to protect a domestic market.  But in this case they are being applied without heed to the result domestically.  Most foolish in my opinion.  I expect the local price of physical to end up higher than the published paper price.  One to watch...

Does that mean if I upgrade to platinum plus membership its going to cost me a lot more in the future?