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silversky

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About silversky

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  1. Hang on, hang on, hang on. Paul usually says something like "are we at £50 an ounce yet?" Come on Paul, say the line...
  2. Some are forecasting deflation is on its way. The BBC added a new tab called "cost of living" only a couple of days ago. Usually when the media make a big noise about something economic, the effect of it is already close to its peak. The American press have been talking about their inflation issue for quite a while now, and I'm getting overblown vibes from it all. Just came across this article today. It describes a situation where inventories have been built up higher than previous over the last 18 months, mostly because of supply chain fears, and that these high inventory levels, mean lower prices as businesses struggle to get rid of product. They therefore forecast a deflationary pulse is on its way. https://deflation.com/expert-commentary/stack-em-high-and-sell-em-cheap-a-deflation-pulse-is-coming/
  3. I'm beginning to think it might be a while away yet. It looks impossible, but it always looks impossible, which is precisely why the market always fools the majority. I think that there's a good chance that houses in the UK will continue to rise in value, despite terrible economic, financial and political headwinds. I don't think that the FED will actually take much action, until it's waaaay too late. Inflation will be partly ignored for some time to come, and the dollar will remain strong for far longer than anyone can imagine right now. There is quite literally no good reason for it, and yet it remains strong defying all logic. I could of course be wrong, nothing functions these days as a real market. All markets are so interfered with, that none of the traditional logic applies anymore. The midterms and a democratic wipeout will probably boost US confidence, with hope for an improvement in 2024. Regardless of whether that improvement in politics is actually forthcoming, the market will price it in over the next two years. Once 2024 rolls around, any potential recovery will already be fully in the price. The systemic problems are gigantic, and collapse of the western leveraged system is all but inevitable. In the meantime, the wall of worry will be climbed, gold and silver will be left out in the cold for a while longer. It all depends on whether cheap energy can be sourced or not. The UK is in a terrible situation over that, less so the USA if they incentivise the local producers and refiners. Sorry to be so short term bearish on PM's, but if all that's happened over the last two years has resulted in lower prices in real terms, I just can't see the inevitable further bad news being much of a catalyst for rising prices. Not until it's meltdown time, and we're actually a fair way off that for now. Of course, how this effects the price in pounds is anyone's guess. It'll depend on whether our new leader is able to pretend to be Maggie and galvanise the nation into believing a load of gibberish. Ultimately though, the UK is facing far too many serious problems, and I imagine that the pound will devalue further over the coming two years. This is likely to have the effect of cancelling out any drops priced in USD, making PM's a safe neutral bet. Longer term however, I believe that they're a screaming buy.
  4. Yikes. If the supreme court were to reverse this ruling, surely it would save an awful lot of boating accidents each year.
  5. Ahh, the heady days of populism. What a breath of fresh air to hear such straightforward honesty from a political candidate. But the swamp struck back hard. No reverse gear for these people. Eventually the dollar will crack, and when it does, metals will explode. Wish I knew when though.
  6. So that's where the diamagnetic personality comes from.
  7. A game of musical ounces. Still lots of people who can hear that imaginary music. It all works until suddenly it doesn't. Just look at Sri Lanka. Any and all debts of their government are pretty much wiped out now. It happened slowly and obviously over a very long time (just like the corrupted financialisaton of the metals markets), before all of a sudden snapping. Metals will have their day. It'll be nice if I'm not six foot under when it finally happens!!!
  8. If by some strange miracle it is available at that price point, it would be time to sell the house and back the truck up... assuming the housing market hasn't tanked as well...
  9. I reckon it's fear of an everything crash. People are starting to shore up liquidity before the inevitable. I don't blame them personally. Only gold is holding up to this proxy war environment, and it makes sense. Having said that there might be an oversold bounce at some point, but I don't think it'll last. Scrap cars for the crusher have been dropping for a while now, and they took a huge drop down yesterday. With all the energy price increases just around the corner, there's absolutely no doubt that there's going to be some very serious economic problems if we don't change course soon. Unfortunately, I don't think gramps or the flying fatman are in any mood to change their minds. And this means that there will be serious economic damage for certain. I'm not sure how the pound will hold up, but I now expect another equal leg down for Silver, despite roaring inflation. It's only at the end of the crash that silver will play it's phenomenal inflation catch-up game. Not before. No idea when that will be, but I can see the miners getting hammered soon. There isn't a market for silver in a crashing economy, and it doesn't matter what the price is, there won't be the volume. There just isn't a market for high value items that need Silver, when no one can afford food or heating. I expect a hunkering down this winter, as people choose between heating their homes, or eating something better than spam. All I've been hearing locally, is concern over energy and food bills. This is IRL, not on the internet. There's real concern, and I think this means there's real trouble coming. The market has completely fallen out of second hand commercial vehicles, according to a trader I know, and this indicates to me that all sorts of people are experiencing a contraction in their own personal money supply. I just don't see much demand for Silver in this environment, and I think that inflation and the cost of energy to mine, are pretty much all that's keeping a floor on the price just now.
  10. One tube of 25 x 2016 BU Silver Britannias for sale. £590 delivered including Special Delivery postage. The coins are in good condition. They've been stored carefully since purchase brand new, and they've never been removed from the tube. Bank transfer, UK only.
  11. Interesting to see how platinum has reacted to the news on Sunday. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-increase-tariffs-russian-platinum-palladium-new-sanctions-2022-05-08/ With the announcement that Britain would be applying a 35% tariff to Platinum and Palladium, it's interesting to examine how their prices have reacted. Down initially with Silver on Monday, but they have now diverged and are rising. I'm not really sure how Britain alone charging its own consumers an extra 35% for Russian Platinum and Palladium, will make any difference. It appears to me that the only effect will be that the UK economy will run short of Platinum and Palladium, or have to put in place very strong commitments from South Africa. The Chinese will no doubt buy it at a slight discount from Russia. The scrap car market is an interesting proxy for the price of physical. One year ago, I could scrap my old banger for £300. Three months ago that was up at just under £400. After the war started it reached £585 then fell back to £550. I'll have to get another quote again, but I imagine that the application of a 35% tariff can't have done much to alleviate the pressure on those metals. As far as the overall price on the world market, I can't see that changing much to be fair. If the UK ends up sourcing all its Platinum demand from scrap cars and South Africa, the Chinese would have to be muscled out of some of their supply from there. If so, they'll just increase their deliveries from Russia. It seems to me that the same amount of Platinum will get used worldwide (after all the old cars in the UK have been stolen and crushed (yes that's happening!!)). And the impact on the global price won't be terribly large. The UK consumer will lose out to higher prices when manufacturers (if we have any left) are forced to source it from Russia. The Chinese will resist fully any attempt to lower their supply from South Africa to facilitate increasing the UK supply, and we'll end up recycling things that aren't old enough to be recycled. All in all, I expect little change to the price because of this move, unless it becomes a western wide push, in which case, car manufacturing in the west will take a massive hit. Interesting times to see tariffs used as offensive weapons. They're normally applied as defensive strategies, to protect a domestic market. But in this case they are being applied without heed to the result domestically. Most foolish in my opinion. I expect the local price of physical to end up higher than the published paper price. One to watch...
  12. The paper markets for metals allow miners to sell their silver today, and then supply it in a couple of months time. So the miners in a way can be considered as shorting the market. They are sellers. But they don't really care what the price does after they've sold their contract to supply, because they've committed to honour the contract at that price and deliver the Silver after they've got it out the ground. The complication comes in where other investors are allowed to trade those contracts between the miners and the consumers. Because these are paper contracts, other investors can buy and sell those paper contracts without having to handle the dirty metal stuff at all. That all sounds well and good if it was just like that, but it's not. What is allowed, is for large investors to sell contracts effectively as if they were miners and going to supply, and then to close the contracts out by buying other contracts back before they have to make the delivery. The contracts come into existence and go out of existence without any of that promised future Silver ever leaving the ground. This could obviously get a bit crazy, so its supposedly kept in check by backing the made up paper contracts against a bunch of real ounces sat in a vault in the COMEX (the exchange who make the paper contracts), just in case any of the buyers of the made up paper contracts, actually want the dirty metal. Even that sounds sort of okay in principle, but like everything in the financial world, the further you get away from the basic deal of two people bartering a commodity amongst themselves (capitalism rather than financialism), the shadier things get. The amount of real Silver sat in that vault backing the temporary paper you would imagine should be about 1 : 1 ratio. But it's not. It like bank loan leverage, and it has been allowed to climb to very high multiples. The excuse is that no one want's the real stuff so there won't ever be a bunch of claims on it all at once. I seem to remember reading somewhere that there were around 400 potential claims for every real ounce sat in that vault. Not exactly a stable position. This is the reason for the monkeying around near the end of a delivery month. Sometimes, more paper contracts are blasted into existence to try to push the price around before the close. If you can print up imaginary metal in vast amounts, you can force the paper price of that metal down, making a fortune. It also fleeces the miners, who often end up having to sell at low prices in the subdued paper market, while the financial industry "wizards" in nice offices make bank with ones and zeros. The system is creaking and groaning under the weight of the parasites. It's unclear how much longer this imaginary future product market can continue. The leverage is what makes it a joke. It's unfixable, and it needs to be swept away. But that isn't going to happen until the entire system melts down for real. And Central bankers will bet all of our lives away before they roll over and accept that.
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