Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[HGr]

2 hours ago, Auricsstash said:

My advice get clear of precious metals now sell all your holdings as quickly as possible. By December you will be 20/30% down due to brexit being so soft it’s exactly like staying in the E.U...  

PMs 7 year circular top was in August..

the fed will print money to make risk assets go up that’s the whole game now and the big money knows this...

Oh hey Wonger. We've missed you! 

[Auricsstash]

11 minutes ago, HGr said:

Oh hey Wonger. We've missed you! 

Wongers theory was against the dollar which I think pms will do reasonably well against my thesis is entirely against the value of the £ shorter term..

[Auricsstash]

21 minutes ago, Sparrow said:

I'm predicting a thin deal with the UK probably gradually establishing a closer relationship with the EU over time.  (Can't beat geography.) So I guess that would fall under your option 2.

I don't see another referendum getting through parliament, and there would be little point as the UK has already left the EU.  And as for hard Brexit, I am assuming that you are referring to no deal because what the UK is facing is already a pretty hard version?  If so, yeah, the only way that would ever happen is by accident. (Which is a little worrying when you consider the UK government's track record for incompetence) 😬

I don’t think the deal maters that much as long as their is one it’s what it does to the value of the £ that’s going to be the key..

let’s see what Boris signs in the next few weeks... get the feeling it’s going to be anything.. 

[Martlet]

Any agreement will see a positive response to sterling, probably to around the pre-referedum level around 1.45. That's about 10% up, anything more is unrealistic.  A failure to agree a practical trade arrangement will see 10% drop to 1.20.  The market has been rising, indicating optimism of a sensible agreement being reached. 

[Auricsstash]

7 minutes ago, Martlet said:

Any agreement will see a positive response to sterling, probably to around the pre-referedum level around 1.45. That's about 10% up, anything more is unrealistic.  A failure to agree a practical trade arrangement will see 10% drop to 1.20.  The market has been rising, indicating optimism of a sensible agreement being reached. 

Agree 10/15% pop either way I don’t think is out of the question. But you then still have the problem of the Brexit process being complete.  
Risk assets have been set up by the FED to continue rising under Biden as they did under Trump this is the exact environment where you sell safety and buy risk assets giving  you the other 10/15% down....

[Kman]

6 hours ago, Auricsstash said:

the fed will print money to make risk assets go up that’s the whole game now and the big money knows this...

They haven't, can't and do not print money

They create bank reserves in collateral accounts, it increases the monetary base but not the monetary supply, banks aren't lending so money is tight

The big money knows nothing good is happening that's why bond yields are staying low and will go lower and banks bought 50*+ billion of treasuries in a week in the latest h8 data

The big money wants gold that's why gold fell the smallest amount In March and easily had the most rapid rebound - it went up faster that it fell

 

Edited November 18, 2020 by Kman

[Auricsstash]

6 minutes ago, Kman said:

They haven't, can't and do not print money

They create bank reserves in collateral accounts, it increases the monetary base but not the monetary supply, banks aren't lending so money is tight

The big money knows nothing good is happening that's why bond yields are staying low and will go lower and banks bought 80+ billion of treasuries in the latest h8 data

The big money wants gold that's why gold fell the smallest amount In March and easily had the most rapid rebound - it went up faster that it fell

 

I have covered this with you before K you want me to show you the little picture of how central banks actually work again??

 

[Kman]

2 minutes ago, Auricsstash said:

I have covered this with you before K you want me to show you the little picture of how central banks actually work again??

I don't remember sorry

What I said is factual and correct

If you think you have any interesting information pertaining to central banks of course I'd be interested to see it 

[Paul]

(Courtesy of BullionByPost newsletter)
 
Gold and silver prices remain subdued this week as positive announcements in the race for a Covid-19 vaccine increased optimism amongst some investors. A decision on Brexit is also due in the coming days, and hopes of a final-hour deal have pushed the Pound up to a two-month high against the Dollar, giving UK investors a potential buying opportunity.
 

November has proved volatile for precious metals, with gold and silver both rising at the start of the month prior to the US election. With the result contested, investors have once again turned to coronavirus as a key driver for risk sentiment, and for now prices remain down on the highs seen at the start of the month.

Gold is currently trading just above £1,400 per ounce, while silver is holding at over £18.00 per ounce.

 
The gold price in GBP, showing a volatile month so far. 

The positive results in vaccine trials in Germany and America have generated public optimism that the economic limitations caused by lockdowns may be nearing an end, but economic analysts have been quick to caution against being too optimistic.

The Bank of England's own Deputy Governor, Dave Ramsden, said this week that while the vaccine news is a positive, it doesn't necessarily warrant an upward revision of the BoE forecasts, with the Bank even suggesting a drastic shift to negative interest rates akin to those in Japan and the Eurozone to help stimulate economic activity.

In the short term, the positive vaccine news has made for a stronger Pound, which in turn has helped present a buying opportunity for bullion. In the longer term though, the outlook remains strong for gold bullion.

Rising unemployment and low growth were present before the coronavirus pandemic, and the UK was on the verge of recession at the start of 2020. 

Britain's economic reality is one of a slow and difficult recovery.

Brexit is yet to be finalised, and while the announcement of a deal would be a welcome conclusion for many, deadlines have been and gone over the last four years despite briefings that there would be resolution, that progress had been made, and that a deal was 'oven-ready'. 

The current recession and the aforementioned low growth will continue to hold back public spending, and could force a return to austerity in response to growing public debt.

Those businesses which collapsed will not simply return, while quantitative easing (read: money printing), and low or even negative interest rates are here to stay for some time. 

The lack of yield on other assets, and a dilution of the Pound's strength will continue to support demand for gold and silver into 2021 and beyond. 

[HerefordBullyun]

11 minutes ago, Paul said:

(Courtesy of BullionByPost newsletter)
 
Gold and silver prices remain subdued this week as positive announcements in the race for a Covid-19 vaccine increased optimism amongst some investors. A decision on Brexit is also due in the coming days, and hopes of a final-hour deal have pushed the Pound up to a two-month high against the Dollar, giving UK investors a potential buying opportunity.
 

November has proved volatile for precious metals, with gold and silver both rising at the start of the month prior to the US election. With the result contested, investors have once again turned to coronavirus as a key driver for risk sentiment, and for now prices remain down on the highs seen at the start of the month.

Gold is currently trading just above £1,400 per ounce, while silver is holding at over £18.00 per ounce.

 
The gold price in GBP, showing a volatile month so far. 

The positive results in vaccine trials in Germany and America have generated public optimism that the economic limitations caused by lockdowns may be nearing an end, but economic analysts have been quick to caution against being too optimistic.

The Bank of England's own Deputy Governor, Dave Ramsden, said this week that while the vaccine news is a positive, it doesn't necessarily warrant an upward revision of the BoE forecasts, with the Bank even suggesting a drastic shift to negative interest rates akin to those in Japan and the Eurozone to help stimulate economic activity.

In the short term, the positive vaccine news has made for a stronger Pound, which in turn has helped present a buying opportunity for bullion. In the longer term though, the outlook remains strong for gold bullion.

Rising unemployment and low growth were present before the coronavirus pandemic, and the UK was on the verge of recession at the start of 2020. 

Britain's economic reality is one of a slow and difficult recovery.

Brexit is yet to be finalised, and while the announcement of a deal would be a welcome conclusion for many, deadlines have been and gone over the last four years despite briefings that there would be resolution, that progress had been made, and that a deal was 'oven-ready'. 

The current recession and the aforementioned low growth will continue to hold back public spending, and could force a return to austerity in response to growing public debt.

Those businesses which collapsed will not simply return, while quantitative easing (read: money printing), and low or even negative interest rates are here to stay for some time. 

The lack of yield on other assets, and a dilution of the Pound's strength will continue to support demand for gold and silver into 2021 and beyond. 

Not to quote the Genghis khan quote. But the money printing will continue until morale improves....🤣🤣🤣

[Paul]

[Kman]

On 19/11/2020 at 18:51, HerefordBullyun said:

Not to quote the Genghis khan quote. But the money printing will continue until morale improves....🤣🤣🤣

Who is money printing? 

[Stu]

11 hours ago, Kman said:

Who is money printing? 

https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-respo
 

The FED is lending to ever entity in its sphere. It may not be physically printing it is buying  bonds, assets and securities at a tremendous rate.

Most notably to me, they are additionally making dollars available to foreign banks to ease liquidity. These are troubling signs. 

 

[Kman]

9 hours ago, Stu said:

https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-respo
 

The FED is lending to ever entity in its sphere. It may not be physically printing it is buying  bonds, assets and securities at a tremendous rate.

Most notably to me, they are additionally making dollars available to foreign banks to ease liquidity. These are troubling signs. 

 

If they need to provide help to foreign central banks because of illiquidity that suggests there aren't enough dollars rather than they've been money printing

https://www.federalreservde.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_liquidityswaps.htm they can't print money so I'm 99.99% sure the liquidity process is just swapping dollars held from one account at the Fed to another 

"The dollars that the Federal Reserve provides are deposited in an account that the foreign central bank maintains at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

When the foreign central bank loans the dollars it obtains by drawing on its swap line to institutions in its jurisdiction, the dollars are transferred from the foreign central bank's account at the Federal Reserve to the account of the bank that the borrowing institution uses to clear its dollar transactions"

The Fed currently purchase 80 billion in treasuries every month doing QE from primary dealers but they do so by crediting collateral accounts held at the Fed with dollars that can't be spent

They did purchase corporate bonds but they did so with dollars provided by the government, I can't find the chart but I think they stopped doing that in July or August, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1190 the government recently asked for that money back

If they just printed dollars why would the government need to provide them with actual dollars

There isn't money printing, that's the pied piper song of the Federal Reserve to trick people into spending because they think the inflation boogeyman is coming

Edited November 21, 2020 by Kman

[stackspot]

1 hour ago, Kman said:

If they need to provide help to foreign central banks because of illiquidity that suggests there aren't enough dollars rather than they've been money printing

https://www.federalreservde.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_liquidityswaps.htm they can't print money so I'm 99.99% sure the liquidity process is just swapping dollars held from one account at the Fed to another 

"The dollars that the Federal Reserve provides are deposited in an account that the foreign central bank maintains at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

When the foreign central bank loans the dollars it obtains by drawing on its swap line to institutions in its jurisdiction, the dollars are transferred from the foreign central bank's account at the Federal Reserve to the account of the bank that the borrowing institution uses to clear its dollar transactions"

The Fed currently purchase 80 billion in treasuries every month doing QE from primary dealers but they do so by crediting collateral accounts held at the Fed with dollars that can't be spent

They did purchase corporate bonds but they did so with dollars provided by the government, I can't find the chart but I think they stopped doing that in July or August, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1190 the government recently asked for that money back

If they just printed dollars why would the government need to provide them with actual dollars

There isn't money printing, that's the pied piper song of the Federal Reserve to trick people into spending because they think the inflation boogeyman is coming

It's all gobbledygook to me

Either way it's a stitch-up  🙂

[Kman]

Just now, stackspot said:

It's all gobbledygook to me

Either way it's a stitch-up  🙂

Basically when the federal reserve "money print" instead of giving actual dollars all they do is credit an account held with themselves that can't be spent aka bank reserves

It's like someone saying there's no shortage of gold because there's asteroids with tons of the stuff, yes there are but as long as it's totally segregated from real world supplies then makes no difference

Being stuck at sea desperately thirsty, yes you're surrounded by water but it makes no difference

Bank reserves make no difference to the money supply and aren't really money

[HerefordBullyun]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-testing-patience-toeing-line-now

One for you @Kmanmore charts to get your teeth into

[Kman]

20 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-testing-patience-toeing-line-now

One for you @Kmanmore charts to get your teeth into

I have a very clear vision of what's going to happen

There isn't money printing there's a dollar shortage, banks aren't lending, it's going to cause markets to crash, the dollar to spike, gold to be fire saled as collateral 

Look at the relationship between treasury inflation yields gold. When there's liquidity issues and the dollar spikes what happens: 2008 and the start of 2020 - sends gold down

We're going to get that sooner than later, that will be the opportunity to buy an etf or miners 

And just like in March when they've squeezed out all the weak hands they will scoop up the rewards like gold which was bought back up to $1620 quicker than it sold off 

You talked about gold cartel earlier because the price moved 1%, they're going to move gold down 10% +

 

Edited November 21, 2020 by Kman

[Midasfrog]

Another slide downwards today , the Oxford vaccine and PM speech being the cause 😷

Maybe upward trends during December and January onwards as the recession kicks in ?

[HerefordBullyun]

11 minutes ago, Midasfrog said:

Another slide downwards today , the Oxford vaccine and PM speech being the cause 😷

Maybe upward trends during December and January onwards as the recession kicks in ?

It's been the options expiry. Another sell off tomorrow then should pick up.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/expirationdate.asp

 

[Midasfrog]

17 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

It's been the options expiry. Another sell off tomorrow then should pick up.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/expirationdate.asp

 

Can you give an exact time that its going upwards 😂  Every time I pull the trigger it drops between £50 & £150 an oz 😱

[HerefordBullyun]

43 minutes ago, Midasfrog said:

Can you give an exact time that its going upwards 😂  Every time I pull the trigger it drops between £50 & £150 an oz 😱

Won't be long soon. I can see it going up definitely in new year. Biden will announce stimulus package that going to be massive. Regardless whether it goes to wall st or main Street. I think you will see the largest package in history. Keep buying I am

[Jimmy2trees]

I don't think it's a coincidence that gold is falling as Bitcoin is  approaching an all time high.

 

[AurumArgenti]

46 minutes ago, Jimmy2trees said:

I don't think it's a coincidence that gold is falling as Bitcoin is  approaching an all time high.

 

If you believe what the bitcoin crypto influencers are saying then yes.

Apparently bitcoin will be eating gold's lunch.

Gold with be mined in space. Peter Schiff will be changing his second name to Keisier.🤷‍♂️

Edited November 24, 2020 by AurumArgenti

[Midasfrog]

It took gold from 40,000 BC until the year 2020 to reach a peak value of £1579 , Bitcoin has only been around for 12 months but managed to increase by that amount in a week somethings not adding up 😲

I like gold because it looks and feels the same when you hold it even when its value drops .