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    United Kingdom
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My Precious Metals

  • What I am collecting / Investing in
    pre-1920 UK silver coins @ 10% premium, except for double-florins and crowns - 50% premium for those.

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swanky's Achievements

  1. Yes that's my primary interest but that is outdated (will fix). I also buy crowns and double florins now, just at a 50% premium over spot instead of 100%.
  2. "X happens as Y happens" - always ignore these headlines, they are trying to make you draw the link. If there's any issue with Delta, it isn't that it appears to be infecting vaccinated people but that new strains are becoming more virulent not less. Infecting vaccinated is explained by delayed antibody response - it takes a few days for memory cells to ramp up, so infections aren't prevented but illness is for most people.
  3. The density difference is enough for a weight test to differentiate.
  4. I don't see the issue with this. Seller is being honest, and maybe some people just like the look of Victorian currency and don't want to pay for the silver. It's when seller doesn't disclose that causes problems, although the fake crowns I caught were quickly refunded no questions asked.
  5. Only fakes I've come across masquerading as genuine are crowns, lots out there.
  6. If this is true then TLT should be tracking Gold in the steepness of the drop, because TLT should fall with rising real yield expectations (as gold supposedly is), but TLT is merely gently drifting lower (-0.24%). I wonder if instead this is a forced liquidation event, or CME smashing gold spot down ahead of huge February open interest (like they did in November).
  7. When real yields go down gold goes up. Correlation is tight: https://www.isabelnet.com/gold-vs-u-s-real-yield Makes sense. If real yields fall, then there's less profitable lending, left with more capital with nothing to do, dump into gold to at least preserve value. You can model gold price as a simple linear function of 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security Rate, CPI, and trade-weighted USD.
  8. Not that simple. Market is pricing in gridlocked Washington, because then only stimulus is monetary (Fed QE). BUT, if Democrat Senators swing Georgia via two runoff elections, they win the senate and unlock fiscal stimulus, that will send yields up and silver down (inversely correlated).
  9. Of course it isn't pointless, it narrows down the metal content to just a few possibilities. Then you can weigh and measure to check density (just cross-reference weight and dimensions with numista). Only lead passes both tests, but that fails the coin ping test. Much cheaper than a Sigma Metalytics machine.
  10. My understanding: over-leveraged hedge funds etc needed to liquidate something FAST.
  11. I use calipers to measure the rim thickness and cross-check with public specifications.
  12. Calipers + coin scales to confirm density, magnet slide test to confirm diamagnetism, then finally a ping test (because lead can pass the other tests).
  13. Many junior miners are missing, but the big names are there. Trading212 has iShares Gold Producers ETF, very similar portfolio to GDX
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