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swanky

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  • Location
    UK

My Precious Metals

  • What I am collecting / Investing in
    pre-1920 UK silver coins @ low premium

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  1. If this is true then TLT should be tracking Gold in the steepness of the drop, because TLT should fall with rising real yield expectations (as gold supposedly is), but TLT is merely gently drifting lower (-0.24%). I wonder if instead this is a forced liquidation event, or CME smashing gold spot down ahead of huge February open interest (like they did in November).
  2. When real yields go down gold goes up. Correlation is tight: https://www.isabelnet.com/gold-vs-u-s-real-yield Makes sense. If real yields fall, then there's less profitable lending, left with more capital with nothing to do, dump into gold to at least preserve value. You can model gold price as a simple linear function of 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security Rate, CPI, and trade-weighted USD.
  3. Not that simple. Market is pricing in gridlocked Washington, because then only stimulus is monetary (Fed QE). BUT, if Democrat Senators swing Georgia via two runoff elections, they win the senate and unlock fiscal stimulus, that will send yields up and silver down (inversely correlated).
  4. Of course it isn't pointless, it narrows down the metal content to just a few possibilities. Then you can weigh and measure to check density (just cross-reference weight and dimensions with numista). Only lead passes both tests, but that fails the coin ping test. Much cheaper than a Sigma Metalytics machine.
  5. My understanding: over-leveraged hedge funds etc needed to liquidate something FAST.
  6. I use calipers to measure the rim thickness and cross-check with public specifications.
  7. Calipers + coin scales to confirm density, magnet slide test to confirm diamagnetism, then finally a ping test (because lead can pass the other tests).
  8. Many junior miners are missing, but the big names are there. Trading212 has iShares Gold Producers ETF, very similar portfolio to GDX
  9. I use Trading212, but am new to it. No fees, tight spreads. They offer an ISA, but can't comment as I am using the plain non-ISA account. Good selection of individual stocks, most available through fractional shares. Few are missing, one category I notice is smaller cap miners. They are continually adding more companies. Their ETF selection is ok. They cover the broad market ETFs, but lack specific funds like semiconductor and aerospace&defense. They have a gold miners ETF, but not silver miners (but they have most big names so you can mostly replicate it). Gr
  10. Likely cause for recent move: Sprott Silver Trust are raising $1.5 billion to purchase silver over next 25 months - https://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/silver-news/sprotts-goin-on-a-physical-silver-buying-spree (not the best site, but few are covering this). So, I think this move is here to stay.
  11. swanky

    UK Junk silver

    Through my purchases on ebay I established that most pre-1947 silver sells for 90-120% of melt value. Pre-1920 sells across a much wider range - circulated/low-denomination typically sold for 120-140%, but crowns and rare years hit 250%+. How does that compare to the scrap merchants you were buying from?
  12. I agree with what @Liam84 said. I also used to buy "junk" silver on ebay successfully, never had any issues or counterfeits, but I have enough now. I will just add - figure out a system for valuing coin lots before bidding/buying. Even with 0.500 British silver that is largely non-premium there is wide variety in sold prices, from 90% of melt value up to 160-170% (including bulk lots that have no business being that expensive). A system lets you snipe those cheaper lots.
  13. Except here Venezuela is not asking for gold or cash, instead for the gold to be sold to United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to buy and ship medical equipment. Hard to argue against that.
  14. My belief from my experience is that this is the result of mint experimenting with composition. I have near-300g of pre-1947 ferromagnetic coins, ranging from subtle to moderate attraction, that all dated either 1921 or 1922 - 2/3rds are 1922, the other 1/3 1921. The coins pass ping test, have the right weight and dimensions, and exhibit typical circulation wear; they just fail the magnet test, sometimes only subtly. I am very skeptical that the Chinese would counterfeit these particular coins. Unremarkable years, low-value coins, and replicating circulation wear would not be worth their
  15. Maybe, but not what I do - that is rest coin horizontally on vertical finger tip then tap edge firmly with something hard.
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