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KDave

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KDave last won the day on September 25 2019

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About KDave

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  1. Thanks for sharing the chart that's great, a definite link. It's one to keep an eye on, I've no idea on timing.
  2. Vertical silver chart it's just not good. Honestly I think it will be the dollar turning around that kills it off for a few months.
  3. Here is what I am seeing/thinking on/crystal ballin on the silver/gold situation. There are some early signs of inflation in the commodities, keep an eye on oil and gas and agri/potash, latest results are strong in potash, these are the first signs of inflation. It's coming, it just takes time to manifest further down the line. Consumer price inflation is maybe 12 months away, gold and silver anticipate this and also reflect falling dollar (reduced monetary value of dollar). The concern for buying silver in particular now is if dxy turns around. Dollar monetary value increases and inflation fails to materialise. Seems crazy now with dollar being printed into oblivion, but watch out for it, gold and silver will enter a downtrend when that happens for as long as dollar strengthens, could be a few months worth of declines. Inflation will be dampened during that period. These things will coincide, before we resume the trend, enter CPI inflationary period and hard times come for the consumer. But who knows.
  4. I felt good about a pullback in metals too when we hit the previous all time high, now again at these new high, which makes me think we ain't getting it kman. Gold doubled in 5 years of which up 40 percent in the last 12 months, seems too much too fast. But then USD is being printed and given out to people as if it was free and interest rates are destroying any monetary capacity of the dollar, these conditions favour gold seemingly at any price...
  5. You return at an interesting time sir, I hope you have been keeping well
  6. I don't think this will be the decade for houses. The problem is if you are looking to buy one, prices may not fall much in nominal terms and interest rates may make servicing debt more difficult, meaning there won't be a good time to buy for a while, perhaps by end of decade once rates stop rising and sentiment is bottoming out.
  7. BP cut dividend by half, market fairly happy with performance otherwise which means I can't average down much. I hope it stays low for a bit longer, I still have a few months cost averaging then I'll have a decent position in the majors. Fully allocated in Exxon and chevron, could do with a few more BP and shell and then I'll focus back on the Telco's. I have a decent amount of BT, next is vodaphone and Telefonica. Natural gas price is getting interesting.
  8. KDave

    Anonymity

    This has already been said but I will say it again - If the conditions arrive in this reality that government are coming to your address for your £2500 of gold that will be the least of your problems.... because you will have also lost your boat in an unfortunate accident. Such a sad story. Honestly there isn't an issue here. Buy the gold with ID, pay with debit card whatever, get it delivered - once your currency is parted for the gold, the gold is 'gone' from the system. No one knows what you did with it, there are no digital records of where you hid/spent/melted your gold. You could have used it to pay for goods and services, settled gambling debts, buried it and forgotten where you put it, etc. This is a non issue. A total non issue. Just buy your gold like everyone else. And if/when the time comes that they confiscate it.... annnnd its gone!
  9. @Kman that is interesting work and ties in roughly with the dividend and inflation (2022 reintroduction earliest). Who knows when inflation will come into play but I think 12-18 months from now.
  10. I think so too, but the house I live in is not an investment, it is to service a need - the need for shelter. It doesn't affect me what prices do so long as I can fix the mortgage, after that interest rates and house prices can do what they like it won't affect. Another way to look at it, I am renting the house I live in from the bank via the mortgage. Its their house until that mortgage is repaid, and there isn't a huge difference in cost between renting and using a mortgage until the mortgage is paid off. Its only in the process of who pays the costs upfront, but the tenant (mortgaged house owner or renter) is still paying for all the costs, maintenance, taxes and profit (in my case the bank is making a profit rather than a landlord). Once the mortgage is paid off costs drop significantly for the house owner, where as renting will always include the above costs.
  11. Fair enough we each have rules. Inflation applies to the debt too, they have a lot of long term fixed debt, used to build CPI linked cashflow generating assets, if we think inflation is coming they are in an excellent position.
  12. BT will do very well once inflation kicks off, they are trying to get Ofcom to agree to CPI price indexing of the last rural properties in order to roll out new infrastructure, they have this already in place with the rest of the UK; https://www.bt.com/help/broadband/annual-price-changes-and-cpi https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/quarterly-results/2020-21/q1/q120-media-transcript.pdf Think about it. CPI indexed pricing, generated from infrastructure paid for now = huge cashflow tomorrow (the extent determined by CPI/inflation). If you think any sort of inflation is coming over the next few years then BT are a buy. The market is not happy because revenue is down 7% and missing the big picture.
  13. Shell back at £10 an change, had a shocker of a second quarter, hopefully I will get a second chance at £9 that I missed first time. I bought some this morning from wages at £11.10 thinking it was a great buy, as well as some BP at £2.80. We will see BP much lower still if they cut dividend. Long term I am confident.
  14. Yes the opportunity cost and compounding that is lost by paying off the mortgage vs investing, its a compelling argument but the house is not something I am willing to risk on taking a punt on another investment no matter how sure I am, I need this place paid off by the time I retire, if I get it wrong retirement may slip further away, there are no guarantees, the only guaranteed return is in the interest and time saved by paying off the house early. Also given my wife and kids live in this house I don't think I should leverage up the house to invest given the consequences of being wrong. My main concern is in 10 years time interest rates will be higher, house prices will be lower and I want as much equity and as little debt as possible at that point. On the current plan I will have the house almost paid off after a 10 year fix and will be able to manage historically normal interest rates which is where I expect things to be. If I am wrong the consequences are far less severe, in the form of a house nearly paid off and less money in assets on the other side depending on how they performed.
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