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KDave

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KDave last won the day on September 25 2019

KDave had the most liked content!

About KDave

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  1. Its all narrative; "Covid is the most deadly disease ever, lockdown needed to save everyone, clap for the NHS." "Covid is weak and affects only the weak, lockdown has killed more people than the virus, majority of NHS have nothing to do but twiddle thumbs and make tick tock videos". One is the story the other is the truth. The story is more important than the truth for most people. The narrative is the most important thing, reality can be ignored in favour of the narrative. What can't be ignored is the consequences of ignoring reality.
  2. It's been straight up since March. A single day correction is not really going to cut it in my view, we need consolidation to the downside with weak hands being tested and thrown out. I reckon we see the lows in December as in previous years (2016 especially). If it goes to plan I'll start buying in October onward wish me luck
  3. You are welcome, remember it's just my opinion that could be wrong and not advice, do what you think is best for your situation.
  4. Looks good Roy a lot of companies to keep an eye on but my favourites are there. A solid reflation portfolio imo. I have the following positions in the ISA, in order of size; RDSB, BP, BT.A, REP, TEF, VOD, SDF, XOM, CVX. On the buy list when funds are available; NTR, MOS, NG., DRAX, SSE, BATS, LGEN. I have enough in oil now, working on building a bit more in telecoms and then into potash stocks, then infrastructure and a bit of diversification from yield stocks. Should be there by year end then I'll keep adding to those positions over the next couple of years I think. PM mining shares I buy via a fund in the sipp which is enough for me with physical metal outside.
  5. Its easy to get rich when you take it from a baby, even easier if you can take it before the baby was even born!
  6. $115 down an ounce on the day, impressive
  7. Robinhood top 5 stocks; Apple Tesla Microsoft Moderna Amazon Just wait until the selling starts.
  8. Shell and BP are very much front running the renewable/decarbon push, its the US companies that are interested in remaining oil producers primarily. The board of Chevron for example are not ashamed of what they do and tell share holders to vote against proposals that are related to climate change, the issue is the share holders want to go in that direction by the look of things. Long term I have no concerns about buying these companies, certainly not at 20 year lows, the dividend cuts are a positive for BP and Shell so long as they use the funds to position for the coming cycle. Investing means taking a long view in good companies, investing in big oil in particular is taking a long view and then being paid to hold through the volatility over decade long cycles. These are huge companies that have more wealth and resources at their disposal than some countries and they have been in business for centuries (Exxon has been in business for 135 years). They think and operate long term. They pay dividends rain or shine due to the decades long business cycle of oil. You as a shareholder are being paid to absorb the volatility that comes with those timelines. BP borrow to pay a dividend because they are not thinking 6 months or a year ahead, they are looking 5, 10 years ahead. The debt used to pay the dividend today is not being measured against today's oil prices, its about tomorrows oil prices. Its not about todays inflation rate but it is about todays interest rates and tomorrows inflation rates. As an aside - the cuts to shell and BP dividend are indicative that something big has changed outside of oil in my view. Shell had maintained its dividend since the second world war, but decided to cut it in the first quarter of 2020, that kind of thing does not happen for a little blip in the road caused by a weak flu virus that is killed by warm water and detergent. Think back over the past 70 years. All the wars, all the diseases, the bad governments, the threat of nuclear annihilation, yet the dividends kept coming! So the cuts are about something much bigger. I believe we are at the end of the credit cycle, it will not happen over night but once inflation kicks off and interest rates being to rise, it will become clear that the credit fuelled consumer will not be driving the economy over the next decade as they have for the past 50 years. The economy is going to change in a big way. Lets just say that China is going to have some western competition.
  9. Yes, a healthy bull market has its share of corrections and periods of consolidation. The gold and silver markets have had neither and are very unhealthy at the moment, it is a market full of weak hands. The sell of should be significant as a result.
  10. I expect to see dividends going higher from next year onwards on shell, I reckon 3-5 times return over the decade including them.
  11. I can hear the cries of manipulation now.
  12. I really like this and will think on it. I had thought about using static percentages based on required exposure (30% in gold max, 30% in oil max, etc) and initially thought of rebalancing based on asset performance, perhaps twice a year or quarterly if performing well. The trouble with this is it does not involve systemic discipline and leaves one open to missing gains in the event of the kind of moves that, for example, silver is known for, up as quickly as it comes down. Personal timing decisions would be the main driver of rebalancing frequency, which is an aspect open most to the human element of investing. A system like you have laid out is much better, it largely removes emotion so long as discipline to follow the system is maintained. I will test this, if we see a pullback in silver I will be buying some paper equivalent and will test it on the upside. I am not sure if it crosses a line from investing to trading given the small 2.5% increments, I will likely use larger increments as I am investing relatively small amounts, certainly not as part of a 100k portfolio. I will have to find an appropriate vehicle as well in regards to buy/sell fees, most ETF's trade like stocks which have dealing costs, vaulting is the same, ideally I will find a no trading cost fund on HL that is suitable. I recently read a book on the breaking and forming of habits, and this came to mind as true to this process. "You do not rise to the level of your goals, you fall to the level of your system."
  13. I liked your idea to simply stop buying something and allocate cash to an under bought area instead. That works during normal times. BUT if an asset is moon shotting then I agree its not going to work. I think there needs to be a balance between selling some moon shot asset in order to allocate to another opportunity, while keeping hold a decent wedge in the event of a mars shot. In other words re balancing when there is significant price movement, but to preset levels. This should in theory lock in the gain and provide additional upside from another diversification, and reduce the risk of downside in the moon/mars shot. I hope that makes sense. I would also during such time put all cash income into the other opportunity and just continue to hold the high flyer until things calm down. In real terms, there is so much on offer at the moment, so much value in stocks if thinking long term and expecting inflation. I had way too much gold thanks to the recent rises and so sold some to move into areas I think have value, oil mostly. I am putting all cash into stocks that I like and have not bought any metals since June. I am happy to hold what I have and wait for further upside before selling some more, or if opportunity allows, buy some more when we see some downside. There is a balance. The only PM mining shares I own now are for diversification purposes in the SIPP (30% of total), I sold half of those off to re balance into oil a few weeks ago because in price terms gold had become the majority of my SIPP. I sold half of it. Now I am still buying gold in the SIPP monthly, in theory cost averaging in, and I will do a rebalance the next time something gets out of whack. Perhaps this is wrong, I have not thought enough on it? I have sold FRES to move into other stocks and I am still holding my physical silver. I will accumulate some more physical when the hype dies off and we get the pullback. If we don't get a pullback for whatever reason I will start to sell the physical to realign the protfolio, as I don't think such a move is sustainable and I have lots of other things I want to invest in, namely oil, potash, telecoms, mining shares (non PM), infrastructure shares, tobacco shares. BATS is £25 a share and paying 8% dividend at the moment, I would rather that than another ounce of silver at these prices.
  14. KDave

    The hype is real

    No I don't mean the forum hype and gouge shady sales tactics of old. I mean the crypto mania crowd that have discovered mike maloney and silver. Just look at some of the comments under this video; These people are very enthusiastic. Only one or two sensible comments among a sea of hype.
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