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Stuntman

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Posts posted by Stuntman

  1. 2 hours ago, Leonmarsh said:

    Maybe even the stoat of seville after a definite final one after the zebra, an animal previously unknown thst Queen Victoria used to feed cheese to and carry around in her ginger wig 

    I'm not sure about the Stoat of Seville, but today it appears that there are a few Weasels of Llantrisant 😉

    On a more serious note - what a palaver.  I'm glad I'm not particularly interested in the proofs of this series.

    Well done to those that wanted and got them.

  2. ^^^ I don't think so.  The lines being in lockstep between 1952 and 1967 is because the value of gold was 100% linked to the value of fiat.  So regardless of the item in question (whether houses or computers in your example), the two lines would stay in step.  The lines diverge when the value of gold differs from the value of fiat (in this particular instance, the price of gold in GBP).

    The slope of either of the two lines clearly also then depends on their relative value versus house prices.  So the fiat line generally keeps rising (because housing usually costs more to buy, due to inflation - whether wages or house prices, or both) whereas the gold line goes up and down depending on whether the gold price rises faster than house prices.

    You can also see in the chart that the fiat line actually slopes downwards in the early 1990s (post-recession in the UK) and in the late 2000s (post-global financial crisis).  This accords with the reality of the UK housing market.   The gold line decreased sharply in the late 2000s (in fact between 2005 and 2012) because the gold price was increasing rapidly, while for some of that time the housing market was decreasing.  So in 2012 you would have needed far fewer ounces of gold to buy the same sort of house than you would have done in 2005.

    Note also that the chart appears to have a logarithmic scale on the Y-axis so the slope of the lines is not directly linear.  In other words, the slopes would be a lot steeper if the Y-axis had a linear scale.

    That's my analysis, anyway 🙂 

  3. This link shows the historical price of gold in $ per oz for 200 years, up to 2015.

    https://onlygold.com/gold-prices/historical-gold-prices/

    It's interesting in the context of the original chart because it shows the gold standard value of about $35 per oz between 1953 and 1967, which is why the two lines on the chart were in lockstep until 1968.

    And then if you look at 1973 and 1974, you will see that gold (priced in $) went up by 67% and 73% year-on-year, respectively - which is why you wouldn't have needed as many ounces of gold to buy the same sort of house at the start of 1975, compared to the start of 1973.

    All good stuff!

  4. Yes it's an index chart. 

    At the start of the time series on the chart, the average house price in units of gold and in units of GBP was 100 units.

    At the end of the time series on the chart, the average house would still cost the same 100 units of gold, but you would now need over 10,000 units of GBP (being over 100 times as many units of GBP than you needed 70-ish years ago to buy an average house).

    So the conclusion I draw from the chart is that in 2021 an average house is worth the same amount of actual physical gold as it was in 1950 or thereabouts.  So the increase in the price of gold has mirrored the house price inflation over those 70 years.

     

    Interesting to note that house price inflation was faster than gold price inflation until about 1973 (i.e. the thick line is going up) - then gold goes up faster than house prices until about 1980 (i.e. the thick line is going down) - etc etc.  

    With the UK housing market currently going a bit nuts, the thick line will currently be going up again.

     

  5. 3 hours ago, dicker said:

    (snip)

    I did flick through the Basel III regulation (which is voluntary) and it’s highly technical and hard to understand unless you have a very deep understanding of banking  “Pyrocyclical Fi[s]cal policy anyone”?

    (snip)

    Best

    Dicker
     

    I think this means setting bicycles on fire, in exchange for money 😄

  6. Well done @Dougall1 - first of many, I imagine!

    What date is your sovereign?  Looks like it will be somewhere between 2000 and 2015 if it's an Ian Rank-Broadley obverse.

    Some of those years have low mintages, which don't really affect the price now, but may do in a few years' time...

  7. You can by ETFs (exchange-traded commodity funds) through most investment platforms and/or stockbrokers.

    They have a mixed reputation on here but they would suit your needs perfectly.  You can buy or sell units in these funds on any trading day.

    I use them - I have money in the iShares Physical Gold, Silver and Platinum funds (3 separate funds, all ultimately managed by BlackRock).  Similar funds are available from other providers.

    The documents suggest that they do indeed hold the physical metals to back up the full value of the fund.  Others may think this is untrue or unlikely.

    I am happy to hold these funds and manage any other risk beyond the pure commodity risk.  As always, do your own research.

  8. Something like a modern hammered gold Noble or Angel would be a very lovely thing.  Imagine one of those with a design similar to the 1989 sovereign, for the 2022 platinum jubilee.  Yum Yum.

    @westminstrel - I don't have any hammered coins, just early milled shillings.  But if I did, I'd be looking at Edward VI and Elizabeth I to start with I think, then Charles I.  Personally I would want shillings, but long cross pennies are definitely the cheapest and easiest way in.

  9. That's a very expensive Unicorn 😉

    If you wanted a platinum Unicorn with less of a premium, you might be able to find a Platinum Queen's Beasts Unicorn on the secondary market for significantly less.

    Personally I think it's a nicer design.  

    Gratuitous Lions & Unicorns photo...

    _20200423_132245.JPG

  10. Agree with what Dave says above.

    Do the boring/sensible stuff first if you can.  Pay down expensive debt and build a rainy day fund in cash.
    Once you've done that, decide what you want to invest in for 'the future'.

    For the proportion that you put into PMs (versus stocks, bonds, property etc) - then decide on your investment vehicle.

    In the UK - I think physical is good for gold, ETFs and/or miners are perhaps best for silver and platinum (and gold).

    Other opinions are available, and may vary!

  11. Been in their shop a few times over the past 3 years when up in London as tourist.  Not for at least 15 months though.

    It's a nice place to browse what some of the coins and bars actually look like.  Never bought from them, though.

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