Newbie introducing myself (and asking if now's a good time to buy gold!)

[GoldDiggerDave]

2 hours ago, ExUmbris said:

I am confused. I see your argument and what you are implying but it looks to me like all these items that are now much more expensive just go to show how much less out fiat will buy us now because of inflation. Silver being manipulated by big players toward whatever end has stayed fairly low in price meaning our less valuable fiat can still purchase similar amounts. If silver is viewed as a  investment for shorter term gains it is likely a poor one (unless the believers are right and it shoots for the moon) but because of the artificially low and fairly stable silver price it has been acting more like gold in that it can be seen as a store of wealth. I understand it is less efficient due to premiums and size required for storage but I think it wins out against trying to stack it's equivalent in value of doc martin's after sales tax and storage unit fees. 😂

Silver is not a good store of wealth, can you really call it "a store of wealth"   you will also hear the mantra "it's a protection against inflation"   

1 Silver in the last 10 year had not moved in price we can all agree on this.

2 if silver has not moved with inflation, so anyone who can use an abacus or count on their 10 fingers can work out it dose not protect you against inflation because it does not even keep up with the very thing it's supposed to protect you against.  

3, if silver does not move with inflation you are losing  more of your  "store of wealth" the longer you hold it 

4, you could have bought almost anything  over the last 10 years that would have stored more your wealth than silver and or protected you against inflation.

5, £89 per unit 10 years ago £169 per unit now thats a 89.8% price gain remind me again how much silver has moved in the last 10 years? see number 1 

Is amazes me the number of people who buy into silver and don't understand basic economics, yes fiat loses around half its value every 10 years, so if you lock your fiat into silver (hers that quote again) "as a store of wealth" then silver needs to double in price  over ten years just for you to retain your original purchasing power......Are we learning anything yet? 

So many people go along with buzzwords they have heard someone say "it's as store of wealth"  "it's a hedge against inflation".......And when it dose not work out they way people thought guess what they say?........."silver is manipulated"    this is moronically hilarious  sorry I don't have an emoji to show how stupid this is.  

Mate buy into silver and believe what you want,  but I'd strongly recommend you look into buying silver with some scepticism or in another 10 years your "store of wealth" will lose more of it purchasing power as we have already seen this year most fiat currencies lose around 35-40% of purchasing power in a 9 month period  and silver has decreased in price by another 9.8%.......Can you not see this yet?   Mate come on wake up, fiat has lost 35-40% though inflation and yet your "store of wealth" has lost another 9.8%......How much money do you need to lose before you wake up? 

Folks I'm not out to be the bad man here but I can not go along with the silver cult when evidence and facts shows silver is not a good store of wealth over the last 10 yeast, silver has not protected you from inflation of the last 10 years, silver has lost 9.8% of it's value this year while we are seeing fiat losing 35-40% of its value.

This year alone silver has to increase by 40% not go down 9.8% to give you a hope in hell of retaining your original purchasing power over a 9 month period.....And its worse than this as in the uk you have to allow for 20% VAT and 20% dealer premium plus postage so we need silver to more than double (I calculate  this  to be 233% to break even)  in price over 9 months to sell back your silver to the dealer and retain your store of wealth from the start if this year.  

If fiat is losing so much of its buying power you might as well buy 10 pairs of boots, clothing anything that you will need and does not perish now as this is a better way of protecting you against inflation than silver ever has been  in my living lifetime.

I hope I've cleared up your confusion! 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 3, 2022 by GoldDiggerDave

[Stuntman]

All I think @GoldDiggerDave's post was saying is that the Silver is now half the relative price of Doc Marten's over the timer period in question.  And therefore Doc Marten's has given Silver a good kicking, in line with its own product attributes.

[SidS]

2 hours ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

Silver is not a good store of wealth, can you really call it "a store of wealth"   you will also hear the mantra "it's a protection against inflation"   

1 Silver in the last 10 year had not moved in price we can all agree on this.

2 if silver has not moved with inflation, so anyone who can use an abacus or count on their 10 fingers can work out it dose not protect you against inflation because it does not even keep up with the very thing it's supposed to protect you against.  

3, if silver does not move with inflation you are losing  more of your  "store of wealth" the longer you hold it 

4, you could have bought almost anything  over the last 10 years that would have stored more your wealth than silver and or protected you against inflation.

5, £89 per unit 10 years ago £169 per unit now thats a 89.8% price gain remind me again how much silver has moved in the last 10 years? see number 1 

Is amazes me the number of people who buy into silver and don't understand basic economics, yes fiat loses around half its value every 10 years, so if you lock your fiat into silver (hers that quote again) "as a store of wealth" then silver needs to double in price  over ten years just for you to retain your original purchasing power......Are we learning anything yet? 

So many people go along with buzzwords they have heard someone say "it's as store of wealth"  "it's a hedge against inflation".......And when it dose not work out they way people thought guess what they say?........."silver is manipulated"    this is moronically hilarious  sorry I don't have an emoji to show how stupid this is.  

Mate buy into silver and believe what you want,  but I'd strongly recommend you look into buying silver with some scepticism or in another 10 years your "store of wealth" will lose more of it purchasing power as we have already seen this year most fiat currencies lose around 35-40% of purchasing power in a 9 month period  and silver has decreased in price by another 9.8%.......Can you not see this yet?   Mate come on wake up, fiat has lost 35-40% though inflation and yet your "store of wealth" has lost another 9.8%......How much money do you need to lose before you wake up? 

Folks I'm not out to be the bad man here but I can not go along with the silver cult when evidence and facts shows silver is not a good store of wealth over the last 10 yeast, silver has not protected you from inflation of the last 10 years, silver has lost 9.8% of it's value this year while we are seeing fiat losing 35-40% of its value.

This year alone silver has to increase by 40% not go down 9.8% to give you a hope in hell of retaining your original purchasing power over a 9 month period.....And its worse than this as in the uk you have to allow for 20% VAT and 20% dealer premium plus postage so we need silver to more than double (I calculate  this  to be 233% to break even)  in price over 9 months to sell back your silver to the dealer and retain your store of wealth from the start if this year.  

If fiat is losing so much of its buying power you might as well buy 10 pairs of boots, clothing anything that you will need and does not perish now as this is a better way of protecting you against inflation than silver ever has been  in my living lifetime.

I hope I've cleared up your confusion!

I'm in complete agreement, and I'm speaking as a guy sat on a pile of silver.

I think my razor blade stash will appreciate better over the long term.

[Bigmarc]

Razor blades and doctor Martin's? Did you lot meet up on the beaches of Brighton in the 60's. 

[SidS]

11 minutes ago, Bigmarc said:

Razor blades and doctor Martin's? Did you lot meet up on the beaches of Brighton in the 60's. 

Let's just say Nineteen Eighty Four had quite the impact on me. Old Winston Smith could never get hold of razor blades. I thought perhaps if the Great Reset does come along and enslave us all, at least I can have a shave.

[Stuntman]

Enslaved but not unshaved.  Therefore you will be saved.

[katyc]

I think @ExUmbris and @GoldDiggerDave have great points to make both sides of the coin (pardon the pun). I'm new to silver hence feel unqualified to give an opinion. However some things make me optimistic:

From 1913 to 2018 USD went from $1 to $0.04 in value (comparable with what you can buy with it). An ounce of silver went from $0.60 to $15.00 in the same period. Dollar down 96%. Silver up 2500% 

A galon of milk cost a silver coin ten years ago. A galon of milk costs a silver coin today. Silver holds value but the cost to buy with fiat currency doesnt.

Doc Martens are one example that may have performed better over a certain period but there are a million more items in existence that definitely won't have (99% of items in my opinion). And it's all about timing. If you buy your silver at the top of a spike then you ain't making that back for decades and decades. But time it right and it's a different story.

Silver (and gold) will rocket when there is turmoil - especially severe recessions - and silver historically rockets more than gold and closes the ratio gap hugely. History proves this. IF this happens then it will actually go to the moon this time (my theory explained further below).

Otherwise, yes, silver may not make you huge money - for now. But be patient. I believe a mega spike is coming. GDP to debt is beyond where it's ever been and there's only so much quantitive easing that can be done. There are tonnes of great stories going back thousands of years - including empereors being fed to the lions for the same - thanks to the huge out of control inflation they caused by adding cheap metal to their silver coins. Subsequently, each time this resulted in huge silver and gold spikes.

One of the reasons silver is massively undervalued today is because many banks who sell futures are selling stock they don't even have - nor even exists (an example; Deutsche Bank were fined $38 million for rigging quantities in 2016). Banks have frequently been quoting they own way more stocks than they actually have. So these banks make silver stocks seem much bigger than they actually are - this keeps the price down (great news for us because we are buying it cheap today).

But what if the next recession hits and the big players of paper investing say to the banks "right, send me my silver, I'm cashing in my investment"? (Or they sell it and tell the banks to send the physical to their investor). But the banks don't have it! The demand/price will go ballistic.

Also during recession people panic, they don't want their money in the bank which is why every time there's turmoil the value rockets. Crypto may claim some of that panic. But people will likely want physical over digital during panic.

Or, simply, it may not Happen! But history has proven otherwise. In every recession - including long before paper silver existed. So this time, based on the above, it should technically be waaaaayyyyyy higher than in the past because of the paper situation (but for God's sake don't hold me to my theory! I personally believe this and I'm running with it and buying physical silver 😬).

Silver supplies are massively lower than gold.  Silver is also both a precious metal and industrial material. we all know nothing conducts as well. It's also essential for nuclear reactors (isn't a nuclear power plant reopening in the UK? But I'm not sure how much is needed or even how relevant that is - it just popped in to my head!) Don't forget we need silver for solar power too.

Gold is held for value. People hold it, they sell it, they recycle it. But silver is in gadgets that end up in the bin and jewellery etc is rarely recycled. It's running out. 

There is only 14oz of silver in every ton of rock and dirt mined (that's in Peru which is one of the world's best mines). And according to a silver institute survey (I think it was 2018 ish) they were coming up 26 million ounces per year short on what's needed (that is much higher now as the pandemic and war threats caused a lot to buy physical).

Also I'm the UK our CPI inflation goal is to typically averaged at 2% a year. But the "basket of goods" it represents has 721 items in it including windsurfing equipment, gluten free cereal, a manicure and a horse race. What a load of b******s! TRUE inflation of every day items is always at least double that. The government have blinkered us so that people keep quiet. People think their 2% pay rise covers the 2% inflation so they don't go on strike. But look what's happening now inflation has rocketed (thanks to the furlough money printing diluting cash value). So here we gooooo.... Strike strike strike everywhere. The economy is screwed.

There's loads more factors in favour of the shiny stuff (this is just what I can remember off the top of my head). And there are also lots of reasons to dislike silver if you look at just a 10 year period after a big spike. But the easy answer to that is; don't buy at the wrong time. Learn about economics, recession etc.

Of course, I'm new to metals. Maybe naive and if anyone ridicules my view I'll take it on the chin. I'm simply relaying things I've learned and read (by probably biased people!)

I see silver medium risk, gold low risk so I invest pretty much equally in both. As I've said previously, if metals do bad - my properties do good and vice versa so I'm happy with my balance 😊. 

Whatever happens I hope we all prosper.

Happy Saturday! 

[HerefordBullyun]

Some wise words there @katyc! 

[katyc]

6 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Some wise words there @katyc! 

Thank you. I'm grateful you could be bothered to read it as I really droned on there 😆

[flyingveepixie]

1 hour ago, SidS said:

I'm in complete agreement, and I'm speaking as a guy sat on a pile of silver.

I think my razor blade stash will appreciate better over the long term.

Me too..!

[HerefordBullyun]

6 minutes ago, flyingveepixie said:

Me too..!

Dont be so sure. Silver is cyclic and but when it explodes it goes its more volatile. the cycles of silver to highs are few and far between, but they happen and it will happen again. I am happy to keep the faith, silver is still being eaten up in abundance, by the industrial sector and tech sector. I am happy to keep my silver. I stack it and forget about it, until the time is right, its like my comedy badly timed!

[LemmyMcGregor]

1 hour ago, SidS said:

Let's just say Nineteen Eighty Four had quite the impact on me. Old Winston Smith could never get hold of razor blades. I thought perhaps if the Great Reset does come along and enslave us all, at least I can have a shave.

I've got a straight razor and 2 boxes of blades, that's me done for a couple of decades 🤣

34 minutes ago, katyc said:

One of the reasons silver is massively undervalued today is because many banks who sell futures are selling stock they don't even have - nor even exists (an example; Deutsche Bank were fined $38 million for rigging quantities in 2016). Banks have frequently been quoting they own way more stocks than they actually have. So these banks make silver stocks seem much bigger than they actually are - this keeps the price down (great news for us because we are buying it cheap today).

But what if the next recession hits and the big players of paper investing say to the banks "right, send me my silver, I'm cashing in my investment"? (Or they sell it and tell the banks to send the physical to their investor). But the banks don't have it! The demand/price will go ballistic.

I have highligted the key point of the argument, what if.

This is the key point of Dave, which I support. We do not say not to get into Silver, there are plenty of good reasons to do so, what we say is that, based on what you say yourself, to "store wealth" in Silver you are taking a gamble that the system that is keeping the price down will collapse and produce you a profit, unless that happens a pair of Doc Martens will appreciate more.

By virtue of taking a gamble it can not be classified as a store of wealth but as an investment, with the risks relevant to an investment.

This said, I'm off on the bike, you kids play good and don't slap each other 😛

[GoldDiggerDave]

If, but, might do, maybe are not sound reasons to enter a financial decision in my book.  There is a massive difference in the ideology of silver and the stark  reality based on fact and math.

If you are "stacking" silver while you are servicing debt on credit cards or even interest on a mortgages  you are almost certifiable, as silver is not keeping up with inflation and it's very likely you will be factors better off paying down debt with compounding interest over a period of time than buying silver.

Silver has not been a sound investment over the last 10 years,  silver has not been a sound interment this year as it's already lost 9.8% already and the year is not over yet  this is a fact.    If you need to create an ideological story in defence of silver then you need help   I get it it's a sickener when you wake you to the fact your investment has not gone the way you though, and you cling on to the idea the market will change so you double down, and then double down again as you don't want to see the reality for what it is......don't forget "silver is manipulated" so you double down and buy even more! 

Guys I'm not the bad man here but come on!  Sooner or later you have got to see the king is naked he's not wearing any clothes.....He's butt naked, freezing cold and can't afford his gas bill! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[katyc]

23 minutes ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

If, but, might do, maybe are not sound reasons to enter a financial decision in my book.  There is a massive difference in the ideology of silver and the stark  reality based on fact and math.

If you are "stacking" silver while you are servicing debt on credit cards or even interest on a mortgages  you are almost certifiable, as silver is not keeping up with inflation and it's very likely you will be factors better off paying down debt with compounding interest over a period of time than buying silver.

Silver has not been a sound investment over the last 10 years,  silver has not been a sound interment this year as it's already lost 9.8% already and the year is not over yet  this is a fact.    If you need to create an ideological story in defence of silver then you need help   I get it it's a sickener when you wake you to the fact your investment has not gone the way you though, and you cling on to the idea the market will change so you double down, and then double down again as you don't want to see the reality for what it is......don't forget "silver is manipulated" so you double down and buy even more! 

Guys I'm not the bad man here but come on!  Sooner or later you have got to see the king is naked he's not wearing any clothes.....He's butt naked, freezing cold and can't afford his gas bill! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I totally agree about debt. Always pay that first for sure (not investment mortgages though).

This year's drop was expected post pandemic and war threats. I expect it may drop a little more before the big recession hits shortly after. But I'm still buying now incase that happens very soon as the world is in a bit of a mess.

And the facts are in the spikes. They are there. They happened. I don't think anyone needs "help" for referring to a fact. 

We can only hope and wait and see 😊

Edited September 3, 2022 by katyc

[katyc]

Oh and mortgages are definitely not comparable. Buy to let properties have mortgages paid for by tenants all while gaining capital appreciation. They are good debt. There is absolutely no argument about that.

Example: bought a 1 bed terrace for 82k cash. Refurbed. Valued at 105k. Got 75% interest only mortgage £229.69pm. Rent £645. Money back out £78750. Money left in 15k (refurb, legals, stamp duty). Rince and repeat. Rent comes in each month and increases annually.

In 30 years when 100% of mortgage still owed (£78,750), thanks to depreciation in money, it'll be like owing 10k (much less in fact based on history) and the property will be worth 100s of thousands by then. 

During recessions in between (when market falls and values drop) it's irellevant if you ride it out. The only massive downfall is the taxes and legislation.

If interest rockets then rent does due to supply and demand. Its "as safe as houses" as they say! 

Property is amazing.

Edited September 3, 2022 by katyc

[modofantasma]

3 hours ago, Stuntman said:

All I think @GoldDiggerDave's post was saying is that the Silver is now half the relative price of Doc Marten's over the timer period in question.  And therefore Doc Marten's has given Silver a good kicking, in line with its own product attributes.

I interpreted that silver had been absolutely trampled and thanks to @GoldDiggerDave for stamping out any confusion.

[Stuntman]

I started buying silver seriously in my ETF either late 2018 or early 2019 and I have bought infrequently rather than buying every month.  The lowest spot price at the time of buying was under £12 per ounce and the highest spot price was over £18 per ounce.

As mentioned a couple of pages back, I bought some more units a few days ago when the price was £15.35 ish.

Overall if I sold all my ETF holdings when the market next opens, I would make about a 3% profit.

I will continue to add to the ETF if I think silver remains undervalued and I have spare money to invest.

Thankfully I have a well diversified set of investments including a cash rainy day fund, although my only direct investment in property is in relation to my own house.

I'm happy to wait regarding the silver price and then I will cash it in.

In the meanwhile I have about 110 oz of the physical stuff in my collection, just for pleasure. 

Edited September 3, 2022 by Stuntman

[LawrenceChard]

10 hours ago, SidS said:

I'm in complete agreement, and I'm speaking as a guy sat on a pile of silver.

I think my razor blade stash will appreciate better over the long term.

Don't sit on that!

😎

[Bigmarc]

8 hours ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

Guys I'm not the bad man here but come on!

 

8 hours ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

If you are "stacking" silver while you are servicing debt on credit cards or even interest on a mortgages  you are almost certifiable

Perhaps it's the only f*c*ing enjoyment I have. Your goals are not my goals! 

It's like hawkhybride had disappeared and you have taken up his role, also aren't you YouTubers supposed to say not financial advice every 10 mins.

 

[SidS]

11 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

Don't sit on that!

😎

Sat on a stash if razor blades. Might get more than a slight p****, nay? 😉

Edited September 3, 2022 by SidS

[GoldDiggerDave]

2 minutes ago, Bigmarc said:

 

Perhaps it's the only f*c*ing enjoyment I have. Your goals are not my goals! 

It's like hawkhybride had disappeared and you have taken up his role, also aren't you YouTubers supposed to say not financial advice every 10 mins.

 

Fair enough mate, collecting  silver for a hobby is great its far better than smoking....... it's not a sound investment (IMO), a good store of wealth (IMO) and most certainly a hedge against inflation (well anyone who can count can see this one).   There is so much bad advice out there it's insane,  and if you dare speak against the holy metal you are branded a heretic. I've seen people get way deep into silver and I mean way deep and had massive losses on the back of all the associated culture and  BS buzzwords people bestow on silver, and I fear many more will lose out as inflation really starts to bite and silver turns out not to be the life changing investment we have been lead to believe. 

I'm glad it brings you enjoyment, I also like the pastime of silver it's a cheap way to hold a few different coins and it's great for kids as they can buy 1oz silver coins with their pocket money,  I've said a few positives about silver that's got to get me in the good books again.  

As for the comparison to another member I don't know them so I will take it a positive from you.  

Live long and prosper 👍 

 

 

[Stuntman]

Genuine question for @GoldDiggerDave - what's your opinion about silver's current valuation? 

For posterity, according to the ticker on the forum it's currently £15.66 (GBP). 

Personally I think it's undervalued and therefore have decided to have some skin in the game, but I treat it as speculative rather than needing to rely on it for my future.

[GoldDiggerDave]

Just now, Stuntman said:

Genuine question for @GoldDiggerDave - what's your opinion about silver's current valuation? 

For posterity, according to the ticker on the forum it's currently £15.66 (GBP). 

Personally I think it's undervalued and therefore have decided to have some skin in the game, but I treat it as speculative rather than needing to rely on it for my future.

I'm not too concerned about the current value  it's lost 12,2 % this year, silver has been undervalued for as long as I've collected PM's thats the problem for everyone who's bought into it.     I'd like to see it vat free I could play the paper game but I'd still be losing money and I'd have to have £10,000's in the game to play the percentage gains for any real world benefit, 12.2 % loss this year,  0.72% loss over 3 years, over 5 years a gain of 14%  over 10 years a loss of 22.28%  even in the better scenario this decade has only gained on average 14% the fiat you had tied up in silver over the 5 year period has lost more than 14% of it's purchasing power and very few enters and exits at the optimum time no matter how good an investor you are.

When you account for all physical costs, VAT, premiums, delivery, storage, plastic capsule, in nearly all scenarios the additional costs out strip any gains to be had, so this leaves everyone wishing for a seismic shift to see only small returns.  

If I did not hold silver I'd look at getting a few 100 oz of the cheapest secondary market 1oz coins just incase there was an up swing in the market,  I already hold a decent amount so not looking to add to it, if it dipped to around £13-14 per coin on the secondary market I would pick up a few more monster boxes.  

 

 

 

 

[CANV]

Buy silver for fun.  You can get good sized lump of it. Or buy old bars. Especially American ones. They look great ..

and BYB does some great stuff.    But outside of owning 400 ounce lumps on a once a decade spike it will never do that well ..

and don’t get me wrong I own a fairly hefty chunk.  But will always look at the so called ‘vintage’ American stuff first.  
 

American vintage being 1970 to 1990 of course 

[James32]

So we are in agreement...gold is a buy?🤣🤣🤣

Forum name change pending lol.