Newbie introducing myself (and asking if now's a good time to buy gold!)

[modofantasma]

5 minutes ago, katyc said:

Just a trading loss - for now I mean. So, for example - buy a house for 100k, pay 25k deposit andspend 10k refurbing, stamp duty, legals etc. So that property takes a good few years to make a profit. I then repeated that process (bought more houses) over 4 years - hence currently at something like 40k loss. But as I'm not buying anymore and taking a break from it for a few years + rents are now coming in - then the loss probably will less than half that next year, then hopefully be in profit the year after. These are random numbers and not exact - but just as an example to explain the situation. If I was to sell the properties now I'd make a gain as they've gone up in value. But capital appreciation doesn't affect trading profits until I sell, hence isn't much use until then. Hope that better explains it 🙂

Yeah I'm with you. It'll come good in the time frame I'm sure. I've done similar though mixed in some flips and bits and pieces too

[LawrenceChard]

18 minutes ago, katyc said:

I wish! Tens of thousands at loss at the moment (bought them all over a period of about 4 years), however property is guaranteed to pay off (usually) within appx 10 years (unless the population massively decreases but I guess all investments come with a bit of a gamble 🙃)

Others have already mentioned property price drops or crashes.

I think interest rates may increase in line with inflation, but think "the establishment" might take steps to avoid or mitigate this, but even so...

Without wishing to worry you, I would be concerned about banks looking at any reduced equity %, and potential increased interest payments, puttin you under pressure.

I presume you are well aware of the possibility, have taken advice about it, and contingency plans in place, however as you can afford to invest in a few ounces of gold per month, it sounds like you are unlikely to hit any liquidity problems.

In the current situation, I think you are right to pause any property empire expansion, and diversity. It property prices do crash, you may be well placed to buy more.

😎

[modofantasma]

12 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

It's a lot quicker and easier to count 1,000 ounces than 4,000+ sovereigns.

If you owned a large herd of cattle, would you count the legs then divide by 4?

Hopefully I'll be in a position to be just weighing Oz's and sovs in buckets like we do the pre 47 coins  

[LawrenceChard]

2 hours ago, Happypanda88 said:

 

Speak for yourself. I still got my stack. It is hidden away in the secret compartment of my boat. 

It is so safe and secure that I reckon no one will be able to find it. For that reason, I named my boat No Worries !  😁

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, sixgun said:

I'd start worrying - looks like No Worries got towed away.

You didn't think @Happypanda88 would be stupid enough to reveal the actual location of his stash, did you?

He has obviously now invested in a submarine instead!

😎

[LawrenceChard]

51 minutes ago, katyc said:

I do have a small safe (where I keep property keys). I was thinking the dogs bed mentioned earlier is a better idea because the farts that come out of my dogs arses.... NO ONE will go anywhere near there!

Now three things are likely to happen

 @HerefordBullyun will be buying a dog, ...

joining this thread, and...

lowering its tone!

😎

 

[LawrenceChard]

27 minutes ago, modofantasma said:

Appreciate you might not want to disclose in public or to a stranger on the internet in general but feel free to pm also 

But whatever you do, don't send him photos...

He hasn't paid me for mine yet!

😎

[LawrenceChard]

22 minutes ago, katyc said:

I'm 42 now ...

That's the answer to the meaning of life!

😎

[modofantasma]

7 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

But whatever you do, don't send him photos...

He hasn't paid me for mine yet!

😎

Get me a juicy floorplan piccy of how you got a 6 bed HMO out of a 3 bed semi any day 🤤

[Happypanda88]

1 hour ago, LawrenceChard said:

He probably imagines that owning 10 properties makes you a multi-trillionaire, so your main worry should be how to spend it all, and avoid inheriitance tax!

😎

 

Fortunately for me, there is no much thing as inheritance tax where I am. Unlike living in  ripoff  Britain.  😎

[katyc]

13 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

Others have already mentioned property price drops or crashes.

I think interest rates may increase in line with inflation, but think "the establishment" might take steps to avoid or mitigate this, but even so...

Without wishing to worry you, I would be concerned about banks looking at any reduced equity %, and potential increased interest payments, puttin you under pressure.

I presume you are well aware of the possibility, have taken advice about it, and contingency plans in place, however as you can afford to invest in a few ounces of gold per month, it sounds like you are unlikely to hit any liquidity problems.

In the current situation, I think you are right to pause any property empire expansion, and diversity. It property prices do crash, you may be well placed to buy more.

😎

Yes, the threat of interest rates is always looming, however there's lots of reasons this isn't too concerning for property investments. First of all interest rates could never go to the 70s level (e.g. 20%) because debt to GDP is practically at 100%. In the 70's it was something like 60% so there was room to manoeuvre. So it's physically impossible for interest rates to go too high (maybe not even above 5% - but don't quote me on that!) because Fiat currency would collapse (something I believe is already very possible as things are today - hence my interest in PMs!)

Also, Government debt is at an insane level. They really need the rates to stay low for their own benefit (the Gov are loving this inflation we are currently going through because money is being diluted in value which makes the Gov debt worth much less). Interest rates also need to be low so that people will start up businesses (if rates are high people won't take loans to start a business and that won't help grow the economy). So the Gov know rates need to stay as low as possible. Another thing is that if rates did go high, then people won't be buying houses anymore - so this is where house prices slump (but that's irrelevant if you don't sell and ride the recession through). And then, very sadly, many homeowners will lose their homes (because they can't afford repayments) so there would be even more demand for renting, hence rents increase due to said demand. This is where people hate landlords cashing in - but we don't cause these economical issues. People need us during these times or they'd be on the street.

Also, USA has been the reserve currency for something like 102 years. UK, was 105 years before that, France 95 years before that, Netherlands 80 years and so on.... Based on history this means the reserve currency is due to burst (of course this is speculation - but this is the main reason I'm investing in PMs today (I've been geeking out on books!) But I'm really going off on one now so I'll shut up! 😬

[katyc]

So, sovereign crew; what sort of price should I currently be aiming for when purchasing these bad boys? Tavex is at £363.11 today which seems good to me...? Or should I hang around the forum for deals? (I've already just made my first silver purchase from a member - much better value than I've been paying😊)

Edited August 26, 2022 by katyc

[modofantasma]

Just now, katyc said:

So, sovereign crew; what sort of price should I currently be aiming for when purchasing these bad boys? Tavex is at £363.11 today which seems good to me...? Or should I hang around the forum for deals?

They've been the best price consistently on the 2022s. 3 to 5% premium delivered to your door is normally achievable 

[LawrenceChard]

5 minutes ago, katyc said:

Yes, the threat of interest rates is always looming, however there's lots of reasons this isn't too concerning for property investments. First of all interest rates could never go to the 70s level (e.g. 20%) because debt to GDP is practically at 100%. In the 70's it was something like 60% so there was room to manoeuvre. So it's physically impossible for interest rates to go too high (maybe not even above 5% - but don't quote me on that!) because Fiat currency would collapse (something I believe is already very possible as things are today - hence my interest in PMs!)

Also, Government debt is at an insane level. They really need the rates to stay low for their own benefit (the Gov are loving this inflation we are currently going through because money is being diluted in value which makes the Gov debt worth much less). Interest rates also need to be low so that people will start up businesses (if rates are high people won't take loans to start a business and that won't help grow the economy). So the Gov know rates need to stay as low as possible. Another thing is that if rates did go high, then people won't be buying houses anymore - so this is where house prices slump (but that's irrelevant if you don't sell and ride the recession through). And then, very sadly, many homeowners will lose their homes (because they can't afford repayments) so there would be even more demand for renting, hence rents increase due to said demand. This is where people hate landlords cashing in - but we don't cause these economical issues. People need us during these times or they'd be on the street.

Also, USA has been the reserve currency for something like 102 years. UK, was 105 years before that, France 95 years before that, Netherlands 80 years and so on.... Based on history this means the reserve currency is due to burst (of course this is speculation - but this is the main reason I'm investing in PMs today (I've been geeking out on books!) But I'm really going off on one now so I'll shut up! 😬

It is always worth doing a "what if" exercise, to allow for the unexpected, but you sound like you have things well thought out.

Reserve currencies:

... and gold was the reserve currency for at least 2,500 years before all that!

😎

[LawrenceChard]

3 minutes ago, katyc said:

So, sovereign crew; what sort of price should I currently be aiming for when purchasing these bad boys? Tavex is at £363.11 today which seems good to me...? Or should I hang around the forum for deals?

 

1 minute ago, modofantasma said:

They've been the best price consistently on the 2022s. 3 to 5% premium delivered to your door is normally achievable 

I'm slightly biased as one might guess, but I think 2022 Gold Double Sovereign Bullion Coin, from a well-known Blackpool dealer.

 

Quantity	Premium %	Price Per Item	Total	Est UK Delivery
1	4.3	£725.45	£725.45	£6.00
2	4.2	£724.75	£1,449.50	£6.00
5	4	£723.36	£3,616.80	£8.00
15	3.8	£721.97	£10,829.55	£13.00
30	3.65	£720.93	£21,627.90	£20.00
75	3.6	£720.58	£54,043.50	£47.00
150	3.45	£719.54	£107,931.00	£97.60
300+	3.35	£718.84	£215,652.00	£169.60

😎

[GoldStatue]

1 hour ago, katyc said:

Also, Government debt is at an insane level. They really need the rates to stay low for their own benefit (the Gov are loving this inflation we are currently going through because money is being diluted in value which makes the Gov debt worth much less).

I only found out recently that high inflation is pretty bad for UK government debt when compared to other governments because 24% of its debt is index linked, which is way higher than most other countries, for instance for the US government it is 7.5%.

To answer the question of thread, never really a bad time to responsibly buy gold, in the UK buy sovereigns or gold Britannia's, try to be disciplined and stick to your collecting/stacking strategy as best as you can.

 

[Pete]

15 hours ago, Ukbullionfan said:

Silver is trash because of the premiums and the 20 percent VAT added. Look at the current price per ounce for silver, then look and what you can actually get an ounce of silver for weather it be from a dealer or on here. I collect silver because I think it’s cute but at the same time I’m not a cute person I’m a fool. So I’ve decided silver would be a long long longer game plan for me. Silver would be for my kids/grandkids future from now on. 

I absolutely agree that premiums and 20% VAT on silver ( and platinum ) hurt us in the UK ( and many other parts of the EU also now ).
That's especially true when pre-Brexit, we stackers could avoid the full VAT and when silver hit its low point, it was by comparison a real bargain.

You write off completely premium and VAT selling back to dealers .. BUT.. BUT.. selling privately and on eBay etc the premiums and VAT are already locked into the price. Therefore if a coin rises in value due to demand, or you wish to sell some of your silver, then if spot has risen you should be in a position to make some profit and if not, at least avoid big losses selling to a dealer if you are forced to sell.

I genuinely believe there is a lot of upside in silver and its ratio compared to gold is supporting this view but it remains a risk so only folks with other assets and investments should buy PMs. Is gold overpriced right now ? - no-one knows but with high inflation hitting many of the global top economies as well as energy shortages, wars, mass immigration from poor nations to wealthier nations etc. etc. the world as we once knew it pre-Covid is potentially f*cked so creating a stash of gold ( or other metals ) if you can afford to lock it away, sounds like a good idea.

 

 

[kimchi]

If I were buying 2 or 3 ounces per month I would follow @LawrenceChard's advice and buy one or two lowest premium CGT-free coins (Brits?), start filling tubes of those, and a few sovs. Occasionally there are good opportunities for a slight extra premium, like the Queen's Beasts Completer (that ship has sailed now I think), so look out for those as you get to know more about coins  

[kimchi]

The Sovs mainly for liquidity, and again as @LawrenceChard pointed out, the double Sov is presently an opportunity  

[kimchi]

But first things first, you want to get yourself an old, completely knackered boat...

 

[Bigmarc]

6 hours ago, katyc said:

So, sovereign crew; what sort of price should I currently be aiming for when purchasing these bad boys? Tavex is at £363.11 today which seems good to me...? Or should I hang around the forum for deals? (I've already just made my first silver purchase from a member - much better value than I've been paying😊)

Hello and welcome. 

It can be beneficial to use the forum as much as you can to gain a little feedback. When trying to buy at a good price it should be in your mind to sell at a good price to. You don't really want to be in a position where you have a bag full of sovereigns and end up going to your local cash for gold stores to off load it. 

Also have you looked into pre decimal silver? If you are not bothered about shiny and new then it's definitely worth considering as it trades much the same as a sovereign (just a few percent over spot). 

Nice first post, refreshing good read.

[katyc]

4 minutes ago, Bigmarc said:

Hello and welcome. 

It can be beneficial to use the forum as much as you can to gain a little feedback. When trying to buy at a good price it should be in your mind to sell at a good price to. You don't really want to be in a position where you have a bag full of sovereigns and end up going to your local cash for gold stores to off load it. 

Also have you looked into pre decimal silver? If you are not bothered about shiny and new then it's definitely worth considering as it trades much the same as a sovereign (just a few percent over spot). 

Nice first post, refreshing good read.

Thank you very much. I'm going to look in to those. This post has proven very useful. 😊

[HerefordBullyun]

9 hours ago, LawrenceChard said:

Now three things are likely to happen

 @HerefordBullyun will be buying a dog, ...

joining this thread, and...

lowering its tone!

😎

 

Reported for deformation of my fine fine articulate character 😛😛😛😛😛

[kimchi]

2 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Reported for deformation of my fine fine articulate character 😛😛😛😛😛

We don't want to hear about your deformed articulated doll Bully old boy....

We are still waiting for the promised pics by PM!!!

[HerefordBullyun]

10 minutes ago, kimchi said:

We don't want to hear about your deformed articulated doll Bully old boy....

We are still waiting for the promised pics by PM!!!

This isn't the thread for this. As a seasoned member. I only crayon on people's threads as I see fit!

Daft as I maybe and humorous I would say my street fighting man ethic has served me well in my tenure in this crappy forsaken planet....

Rubber wins! it doesn't talk back nor cost you a fortune except in puncture repair kits... @kimchi

Edited August 26, 2022 by HerefordBullyun

[Stuntman]

Hello @katyc and welcome.  I have enjoyed reading your thread so far, and you certainly seem to have your analytical head screwed on very well, and are able to explain complex topics in relatively simple terms to non-experts.  Bravo.

Now in terms of some of what you have asked: in my opinion I would say that gold is currently fairly valued, silver is undervalued, and platinum is undervalued.  But I would say that gold holds more security as a store of value, will be easier to sell, and will probably experience less volatility.

So in your position I would perhaps put the bulk of your intended investment into physical UK gold bullion coins and I would agree completely that these should be 2022 sovereigns and double sovereigns.  The bullion double sovereign is a nice size and nicer as a physical object than a sovereign.
I would also buy at least one 1oz bulliion UK gold coin just so you had a big shiny lump of 999 fine gold.  Choose whichever one you like the most.  Tudor Beasts Lion of England will have the most upside potential in my opinion, but buy which one(s) you like.

For silver and platinum I would suggest you do some research into Exchange Traded Commodity Funds (ETFs, or ETCs).  Some on the forum use them happily (I am one of these people) and some on the forum would take a different view.  Read up on them and come to your own view.  I use the ishares funds run by a company called Blackrock and have gold, silver and platinum funds in both my ISA and SIPP.

I have some physical silver and some physical platinum but these are for collection/for pleasure as the primary reason that i hold them.  If the prices go to the moon, I will sell the units in the ETFs.

I have some physical gold as well.  Most of it is held as a collection and the remainder is held as a stack.  When/if I next have spare money to invest into physical precious metals, it will go into 2022 bullion sovereigns/doubles as described above.
If I was investing more in my ETFs at the minute, I would  add to the silver fund first at today's prices.

Hope this helps and good luck with all your future decisions.

As a side note - if you are single and could tolerate a male southerner, I think we would make a good team 🙂

Edited August 27, 2022 by Stuntman
typo