The coming Gold crash

[HawkHybrid]

looking long(er) term what do we know?

1. if interest rates wants to average nearer to their historic 4-6% then they need to get off 0%

at some point in time and average higher than what is current for the short term rates.

(interest is a connection between future currency and present currency. it's more complicated

than arbitrarily leaving it long term at whatever value (0%) that you want.)

2. gold is likely to go up($) during times when higher rates means more pressure is put on

those who borrow.

 

HH

[5huggy]

This might be attributable to the next "wave"

UK seeks to raise record £385 billion from debt markets

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain said on Thursday it would seek to raise 110 billion pounds ($138 billion) from the bond market between September and November, taking total gilt issuance in the first eight months of the financial year to a record 385 billion pounds.

 

The United Kingdom Debt Management Office is currently on track to raise an unprecedented 275 billion pounds between April and August, financing record borrowing that funds COVID-19 spending, replaces lost tax revenue and repays maturing debt.

Thursday’s announcement represented a slowdown in the record pace of borrowing - dropping to 36.7 billion pounds a month for September to November from an average 55 billion pounds before - and the government hopes for a further easing off.

“The higher volume of issuance seen so far this year due to COVID-19 is not expected to persist over the final four months of the year,” the finance ministry said in a statement alongside the DMO announcement.

article in full here - - > >https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-issuance/uk-seeks-to-raise-record-385-billion-from-debt-markets-idUSKCN24H0WT

Edited July 16, 2020 by 5huggy
add link

[5huggy]

IMHO - just further "DOWN the RABBIT HOLE"! 😏🙄😔

[sovereignsteve]

22 minutes ago, Roy said:

One might say unprecedented 😀

Is that the word grammarly says I should have used? I have always been c**p at English grammar😁

[Roy]

No, not at all! I thought the naval metaphor was delicious 😋

Just 're-tweeting' the Twitter mob

[sovereignsteve]

42 minutes ago, Roy said:

No, not at all! I thought the naval metaphor was delicious 😋

Just 're-tweeting' the Twitter mob

Ah yes, the MSM "unprecedented" situation, I kinda forgot😀 Haven't heard that for a while now. There again. I haven't been listening to any of them!

 

[cornishrich]

Covid19 the prefect great cover for endless money printing. 

[dicker]

Money printing galore....

Money for not working

Bounceback loans

Bailouts

We have lost the ability to suck up economic pain and come out stronger - the last time was the ERM exit and high interest rates.  Now we just print and print and print - going to be a huge hangover.  

Millennials will be absolutely stunned when this all unravels.  
 

Best

Dicker

[KDave]

4 minutes ago, dicker said:

Money printing galore....

Money for not working

Bounceback loans

Bailouts

This has been reality since I was old enough to process politics (election of Blair). Taxing the decent to death in order to pay for the feckless, regardless of generation, has been government policy my entire life. I started my career in 2007 a year before the collapse and lived through it watching people who had assets give no thought to shouldering the next generation with their failure.

7 minutes ago, dicker said:

Millennials will be absolutely stunned when this all unravels.  
 

[Mox]

I must say I do lu ke this thread but it does confuse me (like, I haven’t got a f*cking clue what it all means). Any tips for something simple to read that explains how the ups and downs work and why @Wonger is wrong? Even without any knowledge I feel his prediction is fantasy but I can’t substantiate it...

[KRO]

Possible disruption  ahead for Wongers hobby???

 

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Finance and economic expert Alasdair Macleod says the gold market is “extremely dangerous as far as the bullion banks, swaps and trading desks” that, at some point soon, are going to have to deliver physical gold they do not have.  Macleod explains, “I find it difficult to see how they can close it. . . . The possibility of a default and the possibility of a ‘force majeure’ is increasing all the time in this current situation.  This is a difficult thing to predict, but unless someone can show me there is a way out of this . . . I can’t see how these banks can be rescued.”
So, the only way the banks can be saved is if they can deliver tons of physical gold they likely don’t have?  Macleod says, “Which they don’t have, not likely have, they don’t have.”
Macleod thinks failure to deliver gold is coming soon where the contract will be settled in cash and not physical metal.  How many times can the gold market do this?  Macleod says, “I think it will be the end of the futures market because nobody would trust it as a means of delivering gold.  I mean it would have demonstrably failed.  So, why would you play with it again?  Of course, the failure of COMEX contracts is a very, very serious issue.”
What happens to the price of gold?  Macleod says, “The price is already on its way to infinity or, put more accurately, the dollar is on its way to zero.  The question I think you really want to know the answer to is how long will that take?  In my view, not very long.  Probably by the end of the year because we’ve got another thing happening in the background, and that is we have a banking crisis developing.  This is the natural consequence of the contraction of bank credit.  There is the effect of tariffs on top of that that turn a normal cycle of bank credit contraction into a 1929 to 1932 horror show. . . . If you have a banking collapse, then those assets values will just go down in the pan.  The next thing, of course, bond yields start rising because of the inflationary implications of a financial collapse.  At that stage, government financing becomes impossible because governments are in effect bankrupt.”
Macleod says stocks, the dollar and bonds all go down together and explains, “That is the lesson of history.  Everything just goes away.  If you destroy the currency, you destroy all the financial assets that are priced in it.  That just happens.  It just goes.”
In closing, Macleod says, “I think the problems with the currency are going to happen by the end of this year.  I think the problems of the COMEX are going to happen considerably before that.  I think they are going to be tied into a wider banking crisis.  A banking crisis is certain.  I cannot see how it can be avoided. . . . If our end point is the purchasing power of the dollar goes to zero, then you can see $1,800 for the price of gold and $19 for the price of silver is chicken c**p compared to where it’s going to go.  So, this is a major, major move that is happening, not because they are buying gold and silver so much, but because people are beginning to realize what is happening to the purchasing power of the dollar, pound, euro and so on and so forth.  That is the thing to keep in mind. . . . I think the dollar will be destroyed by year end, and the price of gold and silver is infinity. . . .  I think the banking crisis could start in a month.  Look what’s happening to their balance sheets. . . . I think the collapse is likely to be so rapid that in the absence of any other information, the best thing to do is to hold on to gold and silver as an insurance policy just in case I am right.”
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney.com.

 

[jultorsk]

So... apparently gold's in backwardation (again)? 😬 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4332853-backwardation-returns-to-gold-market

[Wonger]

39 minutes ago, jultorsk said:

So... apparently gold's in backwardation (again)? 😬 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4332853-backwardation-returns-to-gold-market

Contango and Backwardation means absolutely nothing, Futures trade exactly where the Commercial Banks want them to trade to maximise profits on their Net Positions, posters on this thread are going to be taught this lesson very soon indeed and they will not forget it for a very long time indeed!  

Edited July 16, 2020 by Wonger

[Wonger]

21 hours ago, silenceissilver said:

I offer a bet to anyone who might be interested:

If the spot price of gold falls under 500 US Dollars within a timeframe we both agree on, you will get 3 ounces of gold from me, as soon as the spot price falls under this mark. Should it not fall under this mark within the agreed time, I will get one ounce of gold from my counterpart in this bet. The basis is the spot price at the end of the week.

I will not agree to this bet, if the suggested time is too long because I couldn't be bothered to wait for my free ounce of gold for ages but as it will fall under 400 US Dollars soon anyway, I don't see an issue there. May I kindly suggest, by the end of 2020?

Do you mean you will not agree to my end of 2021 time frame, is there a particular reason? 😁

[Wonger]

On 15/07/2020 at 20:33, Minimalist said:

I take it @Wonger you were behind this?

Maneco64

[Prophecy]

14 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Maneco64

The guy's an emotional nut

[silenceissilver]

56 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Do you mean you will not agree to my end of 2021 time frame, is there a particular reason? 😁

End of 2021 is fine for me. Deal?

[Wonger]

58 minutes ago, silenceissilver said:

End of 2021 is fine for me. Deal?

Spot price anytime of the week before the end of 2021, deal?

[silenceissilver]

5 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Spot price anytime of the week before the end of 2021, deal?

Almost. It needs to stay under 500 US Dollars for at least  30 minutes so as to avoid a massive but short wave since they do occur for very short periodes sometimes, without even being visible on the same graph if you zoom out a bit. By the end of 2021 so that on January first 2022 we know who will have won, at the latest.

[TheApe]

Who's going to escrow this bet?

[richatthecroft]

8 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Spot price anytime of the week before the end of 2021, deal?

So, to get this straight in my mind @Wonger, you are betting that the Spot price of Gold will dip to $500 or below at some point between when you shake hands on the bet and by the last day of 2021? And if it doesn't you will ship @silenceissilver 1oz of Gold?  

Unless you are counting some ridiculous anomaly, like the scenario @silenceissilver states above (which would be thoroughly ungentlemanly),  you must have lost your grip on reality.   It's akin to making a bet that Leeds United or  Liverpool will be relegated from their respective football divisions before the end of this season- I don't have an emoji for a wild cackle of laughter, so these will have to do  😂😂😂

 

[silenceissilver]

10 minutes ago, TheApe said:

Who's going to escrow this bet?

Someone with at least 30 positive and no negative trading feedback, I'd suggest @Wonger

One further restriction: In case of a revaluation of the US Dollar the bet is void because we are talking about the purchasing power, aren't we and not  about the US government hyperinflating the dollar and then striking out a few zeros.

Edited July 16, 2020 by silenceissilver

[TheApe]

4 minutes ago, silenceissilver said:

Someone with at least 30 positive and no negative trading feedback, I'd suggest @Wonger

One further restriction: In case of a revaluation of the US Dollar the bet is void because we are talking about the purchasing power, aren't we and not  about the US government hyperinflating the dollar and then striking out a few zeros.

Can I do a bet Wonger won't send escrow 😂

---

Added 0 minutes later...

Awaiting excuse for not agreeing to escrow..

[silenceissilver]

2 minutes ago, TheApe said:

Can I do a bet Wonger won't send escrow 😂

 

I'm afraid, you won't find anyone to take on this bet.

[Prophecy]

24 minutes ago, silenceissilver said:

I'm afraid, you won't find anyone to take on this bet.

Surely Wonger has enormous wealth considering his proclaimed activities, so one troy ounce of gold will be a meagre drop in the ocean for him. However, I'm sure he'll say all his wealth is locked up in numerous trading contracts ...

Edited July 16, 2020 by Prophecy