The coming Gold crash

[Wonger]

1 hour ago, silenceissilver said:

Someone with at least 30 positive and no negative trading feedback, I'd suggest @Wonger

One further restriction: In case of a revaluation of the US Dollar the bet is void because we are talking about the purchasing power, aren't we and not  about the US government hyperinflating the dollar and then striking out a few zeros.

No restrictions either Gold spot trades below $500 by the end of 2021 or it does not, its quite simple with no restrictions needed!

[Wonger]

1 hour ago, TheApe said:

Can I do a bet Wonger won't send escrow 😂

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Added 0 minutes later...

Awaiting excuse for not agreeing to escrow..

Ok I will bet you 3 ounces of Gold I would use escrow, deal?😁

[Abyss]

I watched this yesterday something that I did not even think about. Nationalisation mining companies in countries don't have a dollar swap line.

 

[jultorsk]

8 hours ago, Wonger said:

Contango and Backwardation means absolutely nothing, Futures trade exactly where the Commercial Banks want them to trade to maximise profits on their Net Positions, posters on this thread are going to be taught this lesson very soon indeed and they will not forget it for a very long time indeed!  

That's a rather sweeping generalisation Wongs. E.g., contango in the oil markets was a rather spectacular event just this spring.

The phenomenon exists. The debate is about the reason why this happens in gold. Not sure if you cared to read the article? He's saying it's not about the gold, it's about the dollar and the prospect of negative interest rates.

[Chorlton]

5 hours ago, Wonger said:

No restrictions either Gold spot trades below $500 by the end of 2021 or it does not, its quite simple with no restrictions needed!

If you were really confident you would say for a whole day as you were predicting below $400 before , easy !

[Wonger]

2 hours ago, jultorsk said:

That's a rather sweeping generalisation Wongs. E.g., contango in the oil markets was a rather spectacular event just this spring.

The phenomenon exists. The debate is about the reason why this happens in gold. Not sure if you cared to read the article? He's saying it's not about the gold, it's about the dollar and the prospect of negative interest rates.

Agreed and the reason it was spectacular (I was trading it) was the Commercial Banks pushed the Futures deeply negative which caught most traders in a trap and they suffered huge losses, guess who was on the other side of their trades? You guessed correct the same Commercial Banks, Oil Futures fell over a $100 in a few months and $56 in a single day on 20 April to deep negative territory of -$38 then a few weeks later its back at $40, this has nothing to do with fundamental value at all, you may consider your Gold is worth $1800 but there is nothing stopping the Commercial Banks pushing the price to $100 or $5000 next Month to benefit their positioning, there are no rules and the game is rigged 

[Wonger]

2 hours ago, Chorlton said:

If you were really confident you would say for a whole day as you were predicting below $400 before , easy !

What if i said for a whole Week, would this make you happy? Im here to make you happy I really am! 😁

[silenceissilver]

7 hours ago, Wonger said:

No restrictions either Gold spot trades below $500 by the end of 2021 or it does not, its quite simple with no restrictions needed!

As @Chorlton said, if you are confident about your predictions you would accept these two restrictions.

1) The shorter the time frame, the bigger the fluctuations can be, that's statistics and applies for anything really. Thus it needs to be under 500 US Dollar for at least 30 minutes. You predict the spot price will fall under 400. If you don't accept that, you are not confident that your predictions are right.

I couldn't find it for gold right now but take this chart as example. If you zoom out a bit, you don't even see this hefty fluctuation:

2) In case the US Dollar is being reset and it's for example 10 old Dollars are one new US Dollar, the bet is void. Because technically you could win your bet in such a case, whereas effectively it would be new currency but with the same name - US Dollar -  no one holding gold would lose any purchasing power in this case - and that this would be the case clearly is an implication of your prediction or is it not?

[Wonger]

10 minutes ago, silenceissilver said:

As @Chorlton said, if you are confident about your predictions you would accept these two restrictions.

1) The shorter the time frame, the bigger the fluctuations can be, that's statistics and applies for anything really. Thus it needs to be under 500 US Dollar for at least 30 minutes. You predict the spot price will fall under 400. If you don't accept that, you are not confident that your predictions are right.

I couldn't find it for gold right now but take this chart as example. If you zoom out a bit, you don't even see this hefty fluctuation:

2) In case the US Dollar is being reset and it's for example 10 old Dollars are one new US Dollar, the bet is void. Because technically you could win your bet in such a case, whereas effectively it would be new currency but with the same name - US Dollar -  no one holding gold would lose any purchasing power in this case - and that this would be the case clearly is an implication of your prediction or is it not?

Being a Futures Trader for 22 years I may have seen some similar price charts😉

[jultorsk]

15 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Agreed and the reason it was spectacular (I was trading it) was the Commercial Banks pushed the Futures deeply negative which caught most traders in a trap and they suffered huge losses, guess who was on the other side of their trades? You guessed correct the same Commercial Banks, Oil Futures fell over a $100 in a few months and $56 in a single day on 20 April to deep negative territory of -$38 then a few weeks later its back at $40, this has nothing to do with fundamental value at all, you may consider your Gold is worth $1800 but there is nothing stopping the Commercial Banks pushing the price to $100 or $5000 next Month to benefit their positioning, there are no rules and the game is rigged 

Granted, thanks. 

Right - for both @Wonger and @silenceissilver; for avoidance of doubt, the US$500 (a.k.a., 'the bet') is specifically for current spot as quoted e.g., on goldprice.org? Seeing as most of us spectators probably do not have access to sophisticated trading terminals it might be interesting to specify a mutually agreed and impartial reference source in order to observe and potentially comment on this; in a way apples to apples. Would that make sense?

[Wonger]

20 minutes ago, jultorsk said:

Granted, thanks. 

Right - for both @Wonger and @silenceissilver; for avoidance of doubt, the US$500 (a.k.a., 'the bet') is specifically for current spot as quoted e.g., on goldprice.org? Seeing as most of us spectators probably do not have access to sophisticated trading terminals it might be interesting to specify a mutually agreed and impartial reference source in order to observe and potentially comment on this; in a way apples to apples. Would that make sense?

LBMA Gold Fix price either 10.30 or 15.00 GMT thank you

[silenceissilver]

42 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Being a Futures Trader for 22 years I may have seen some similar price charts😉

Deal?

 

29 minutes ago, jultorsk said:

Granted, thanks. 

Right - for both @Wonger and @silenceissilver; for avoidance of doubt, the US$500 (a.k.a., 'the bet') is specifically for current spot as quoted e.g., on goldprice.org? Seeing as most of us spectators probably do not have access to sophisticated trading terminals it might be interesting to specify a mutually agreed and impartial reference source in order to observe and potentially comment on this; in a way apples to apples. Would that make sense?

I usually use bulion by post but I'm flexibe about what chart to use.

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-price/world-gold-price/

[Wonger]

14 minutes ago, silenceissilver said:

Deal?

 

I usually use bulion by post but I'm flexibe about what chart to use.

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-price/world-gold-price/

We do not need charts for the LBMA Gold Fix price either 10.30 or 15.00 GMT 

[silenceissilver]

8 minutes ago, Wonger said:

We do not need charts for the LBMA Gold Fix price either 10.30 or 15.00 GMT 

LBMA gold fix at 10.30 or 15.00 GMT is fine for me. Deal?

[Wonger]

2 minutes ago, silenceissilver said:

LBMA gold fix at 10.30 or 15.00 GMT is fine for me. Deal?

Yes nice and simple will the LBMA on either fix quote below $500 before 31/12/2021 23.59 GMT😉

[silenceissilver]

1 minute ago, Wonger said:

Yes nice and simple will the LBMA on either fix quote below $500 before 31/12/2021 23.59 GMT😉

Deal

[Wonger]

2 minutes ago, silenceissilver said:

Deal

No buying $500 Puts to Hedge, that is cheating 😉 Ha Ha

[silenceissilver]

Just now, Wonger said:

No buying $500 Puts to Hedge, that is cheating 😉 Ha Ha

Can you confirm that we have a deal? Also, in case there is a Dollar reset (e.g. 10 old Dollars turn into one new Dollar), the bet is void.

[Wonger]

3 minutes ago, silenceissilver said:

Can you confirm that we have a deal? Also, in case there is a Dollar reset (e.g. 10 old Dollars turn into one new Dollar), the bet is void.

Can you define exactly what you will consider a US Dollar reset to void the bet?

[silenceissilver]

50 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Can you define exactly what you will consider a US Dollar reset to void the bet?

Sure but I need to think about the exact definition. I'll post it this evening or tomorrow.

[Wonger]

4 minutes ago, silenceissilver said:

Sure but I need to think about the exact definition. I'll post it this evening or tomorrow.

Ok, I already owe someone on here £1 for a Silver price bet or was it a pint at the pub? I cant remember but will look it up 😉

[HawkHybrid]

23 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Ok, I already owe someone on here £1 for a Silver price bet or was it a pint at the pub? I cant remember but will look it up 😉

 

you mean you're still waiting to pay that £1 to your choice of charity?

(there must have been a really long queue for that charity  )

 

HH

Edited July 17, 2020 by HawkHybrid

[Wonger]

27 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

you mean you're still waiting to pay that £1 to your choice of charity?

(there must have been a really long queue for that charity  )

 

HH

Im trying to inflate away the Debt😁

[Hennypenny]

How much is the bet? How do I join the queue to bet against Wonger.

[Booky586]

On 14/07/2020 at 11:13, Wonger said:

In 4 Days it will be £21 lower than 2 Months ago at current prices, sorry my mistake, I will re post in 4 Days time 😁

@Wonger, wrong yet again.

On 14/05/2020 (2 months prior to your prediction on 14/07/2020) LBMA gold fix was £1,403.67. £1403.67 subtract your £21 equals £1382.67.

So your prediction for the gold price today is £1382.67, compared to actual price of £1440.59.

You missed it by a mile!