The collapse of the coin collector market

[fiveshotdon]

I witnessed a huge shift of negative sentiment towards royalty when on a trip abroad just recently which surprised me how this could have changed so dramatically over the last 2 years since covid.

This got me thinking about a few things, will people want to collect proofs when King Charles takes over? With the peak age of collectors between the ages of 30-65 are these going to be replaced by younger collectors or are they more interested in digital assets.

Could we be approaching a peak and permanent decline in the coin collector market?

[LawrenceChard]

8 minutes ago, fiveshotdon said:

I witnessed a huge shift of negative sentiment towards royalty when on a trip abroad just recently which surprised me how this could have changed so dramatically over the last 2 years since covid.

This got me thinking about a few things, will people want to collect proofs when King Charles takes over? With the peak age of collectors between the ages of 30-65 are these going to be replaced by younger collectors or are they more interested in digital assets.

Could we be approaching a peak and permanent decline in the coin collector market?

The USA don't have any royalty, and the coin market there is about 10 times as big as in the UK.

You did not state which countries you visited, but presumably these were Commonwealth ones. Why don't you tell us to avoid us having to guess?

About 50 years ago, one of ny sisters did an overland bus trip through much of central and eastern Europe, and the east. She noticed considerable anti-American sentiment, but this seems not to have adversely affected the USA coin market.

What has Charles succeeding got to do with people collecting proofs? Would they collect "uncs" instead? And I presume you are mainly referring to collectors of UK coins. I doubt it will make much difference to the coins collecting market in the USA, France, Germany, India, China, the EU, or most of Asia.

When Prince Charles takes the throne, it may not be as Charles III, but using one of his other names.

In the approach to decimalisation in the UK, there was a huge increase in coin collecting, probably similar to the recent Bitcoin / Crypto frenzy. Strangely enough, once we had gone decimal, this hysteria evaporated overnight. Yet coin collecting has regained renewed popularity in the UK.

So, coin collecting, like most other things, has cycles, so you may well be right about approaching a peak, and also about a decline, at least in the UK market.

I doubt very much whether any such decline will be permanent.

I fail to understand your point (question?) "With the peak age of collectors between the ages of 30-65 are these going to be replaced by younger collectors or are they more interested in digital assets."

😎

[Dom]

I for one am trying to refrain from purchasing even your bog standard brits or maples just because I've grown to despise the monarchy and see them for what they are. Once more comes out about the royal family many will turn their backs on what they once revered imo.

[fiveshotdon]

26 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

I fail to understand your point (question?) "With the peak age of collectors between the ages of 30-65 are these going to be replaced by younger collectors or are they more interested in digital assets."

😎

People under 30 are more interested in going out with friends than collecting coins. When people are between the ages of 30-65 they have the most disposable income. over 65 they have less income, ill health and death, so they buy less, sell or they pass on their collection which then gets sold. Will there be enough new collectors to offset the supply that is going to enter the market going forward. We have brought forward a lot of demand I feel over the last two years which has driven prices up. With the younger generation more interested in digital assets, nfts / crypto I don't see them being interested in proof sovereigns. I was collecting coins when I was a kid, I didn't have an iPad, I see no catalyst for new collectors.

[HerefordBullyun]

5 hours ago, LawrenceChard said:

 

What has Charles succeeding got to do with people collecting proofs? Would they collect "uncs" instead? And I presume you are mainly referring to collectors of UK coins. I doubt it will make much difference to the coins collecting market in the USA, France, Germany, India, China, the EU, or most of Asia.

When Prince Charles takes the throne, it may not be as Charles III, but using one of his other names.

 

😎

I am looking forward to seeing his face on the coins...... Maybe one like this when was younger....

Edited July 14, 2022 by HerefordBullyun

[TeaTime]

As a collector i would love the market to become weaker - less demand means lower prices.

As a speculator i would love the market to become stronger - more profit if i sell.

Humans are a funny lot and i don't believe anyone can predict what will be popular in a few years. As for having the Monarchs portrait on a coin - for most people it's just a handy way to date a piece - the reverse design is usually where the appeal lies. 

[Bigmarc]

5 hours ago, fiveshotdon said:

People under 30 are more interested in going out with friends than collecting coins. When people are between the ages of 30-65 they have the most disposable income and no friends so coins it is. 

Updated the quote for you. 

I am not sure there will be much of a shift in sentiment toward collecting coins but I am with you on the shift away from the monarchy. You can kind of see it happening now with the weekly new release. As for digital assets, I am not sure you can compare, I am not sure any of the younger generation of collectors money ever went into gold. Pokémon cards maybe and even nft and crypto are kind of different categories. I have a feeling we will all own nft's at some point if we like it or not but crypto is a take it or leave it asset kind of like gambling.

[harrygill111]

I think growth in digital assets is inevitable and lots of companies like the royal mint will pivot to provide for thier demographic in these markets, within reason. I think the sheer volume of proofs, special issues and very premium collections like the British Monarch's collection although nessecery from a business perspective cause fatigue and frustration and is more likely to damage demand and push people out rather than declining popularity of the Monarchy. 

Watch collecting has survived the test of time so far, it doesnt really matter if people move into crypto, shoes or NFTs to me, unlike @Dom I am facinated by Royal history and collect for my own enjoyment regardless of what the market and others are doing. Also, unlike NFTs and shoes, gold and silver coins have intrinsic value. 

I'm traditional, I'd rather hand down a collection of coins my children can add to, rather than a usb drive full of goofy pictures or trainers. 

Edited July 14, 2022 by harrygill111

[harrygill111]

4 minutes ago, harrygill111 said:

 

 

Edited July 14, 2022 by harrygill111

[SidS]

From the coin dealers I've been buying from, they say that coins have been flying off the shelf, the numismatic market seems strong now and they are struggling to keep up with demand.

I'm talking proper numismatic coins here, medieval coinage through to the Victorian era. So we're not talking modern proofs and BU coins, I can't speak at how those are doing.

[AppleZippoandMetronome]

I think you'll always see ebbs and flows in the market but I don't think it will collapse. I also don't think the monarchy will play any appreciable role in the demand/lack of demand at any point in time. There may be some that care about that enough to boycot coins but they'll be a real minority of a minority and not enough to really matter. Digital assets could become more of a thing in the future but the way they are going I think they're closer to a Beanie Baby fad than a long term collectable.

With regards to proofs (regardless who the monarch is) the old advice was buy them because you really like them with the understanding being they'll almost always depreciate. I think the RM is heading down the same path as the RCM putting out release after release and frankly terribly diluting their brand in the process. The RM is lucky to have its history to bolster its status a bit but it will reach a point that so many releases are put out people lose interest and stuff won't even sell out. We really do need to get back to hammering home that point about proof coins... buy them because you REALLY like them as they'll almost certainly lead to a financial loss.

One thing I think people should avoid - and I've made many posts to date saying this - is the hype train. Modern proofs are a good example of something that was hyped up over the last couple of years which people are now losing loads of money with. If something is being massively hyped up to the point its value has increased when there is no real reason for that increase apart from FOMO you should probably stop and consider how sustainable the prices are before pulling the trigger. Don't get caught up in fads, basically and this applies more broadly to any collectable/asset as well as within the coin world itself.

Edited July 14, 2022 by AppleZippoandMetronome
typo

[GoldStatue]

I think changing the monarch on the obverse will just mean coin collectors will go out and buy more coins, there are so many completists out there. I'm pretty sure whether you are a monarchist or not doesn't have much of say in whether you collect coins or not.

There's so much to like about collecting coins, the art on the coin, the history, the variety, every imaginable price point, having the base metal value to fall back on.

For me there is a big correlation between the price of precious metals and how popular coin collecting is at any one time, higher the price of the metal, the more people find it an attractive hobby.

I'm not so worried about youngsters not collecting coins at the moment because later in their lives they can always start, I'm sure many of the forum members took it up later in life after realising the benefits of holding precious metals as a part of their savings and then moving into collectables, it's just a natural progression.

My main worry would be if everyone in the world moved over to digital currency and circulation coins disappeared, I think it would have an impact on coin collecting but not kill it off, and I'll be long gone if that ever happened so not a major concern for myself.

[Britannia47]

4 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

I am looking forward to seeing his face on the coins...... Maybe one like this when was younger....

That’s a trip down memory lane - Alfred E Neuman from Mad magazine!  Alfred the Great 2 maybe?

Nice photo of Rick Mayall in ‘Bottom’ by the way!

[LawrenceChard]

10 hours ago, fiveshotdon said:

People under 30 are more interested in going out with friends than collecting coins. When people are between the ages of 30-65 they have the most disposable income. over 65 they have less income, ill health and death, so they buy less, sell or they pass on their collection which then gets sold. Will there be enough new collectors to offset the supply that is going to enter the market going forward. We have brought forward a lot of demand I feel over the last two years which has driven prices up. With the younger generation more interested in digital assets, nfts / crypto I don't see them being interested in proof sovereigns. I was collecting coins when I was a kid, I didn't have an iPad, I see no catalyst for new collectors.

If I could be bothered to look for statistics, I think I would find that over 65s have more disposable income than some of the other groups.

If there are fewer "collectors" for new issues, then I think mints will issue fewer coins, so that part of the market will remain in balance.

"News issues" are a fairly recent development in the UK since about 1970, although slightly earlier in the USA.

Many, if not most, "real" collectors are more interested in earlier coins which were mainly made for circulation, rather than the somewhat artificial "made for collectors" market.

I think many "young" people currently obesssing about NFTs and crypto, will move on to something different once the current bubble-like hysteria has died away, and reality reasserts itself.

Although proof sovereigns are nice to have, I get more excited when I get to see ancient coins, hammered coins, milled coins, including rarities, but also some quite common coins if they are in great condition.

Sure, there might be a price drop in some recent issues, but why worry about it if you are a real collector, not simply buying new issue coins because you think they will be a good investment.

In fact, if prices drop, you will be able to buy more coins for a lower outlay.

😎

 

[LawrenceChard]

5 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

I am looking forward to seeing his face on the coins...... Maybe one like this when was younger....

Ah, young Prince Alfred Edward. Will he be the New Man?

😎

[LawrenceChard]

5 hours ago, TeaTime said:

As a collector i would love the market to become weaker - less demand means lower prices.

As a speculator i would love the market to become stronger - more profit if i sell.

Humans are a funny lot and i don't believe anyone can predict what will be popular in a few years. As for having the Monarchs portrait on a coin - for most people it's just a handy way to date a piece - the reverse design is usually where the appeal lies. 

I think your collector / speculator views show great balance.

I don't think it's too difficult to forecast a number things which will be popular in a few years, starting with:

Sex.

Alcohol (in moderation or otherwise).

Holidays.

Chilling out.

I couldn't help smiling at "handy way to date a piece", especially followed by "the reverse design is usually where the appeal lies", but perhaps I am being affected by the hot weather.

😎

[LawrenceChard]

11 hours ago, Dom said:

I for one am trying to refrain from purchasing even your bog standard brits or maples just because I've grown to despise the monarchy and see them for what they are. Once more comes out about the royal family many will turn their backs on what they once revered imo.

At least we don't have an old-style absolute monarchy, where your above disclosure would have sealed your fate.

Our constitutional monarchy seems to work quite well; at least we avoid things like US Presidents including Trump the Terrible. Many other countries are much worse. Our royal family probably provides good value and a degree of long term stability. Of course, they are human beings with all of the attendant failures, and a degree of privilege probably compounds the situation.

If the UK has a political or constitutional problem, it is probably because we have a rather polarised opposition party first-past-the-post system, where government flip-flop between two extremes, whereas a proportional representation system would tend to produce more sensible centerist government. While not perfect, this is almost certainly better than changing direction every 4, 5, or so years, with very little incentive for longer term planning.

😎

[LawrenceChard]

2 hours ago, harrygill111 said:

Watch collecting has survived the test of time so far...

 

Yes, but mainly for chronometers!

"I'm traditional, I'd rather hand down a collection of coins my children can add to"

I would advise spending more of their inheritance, because you have earned it, and they may not fully appreciate it, and will probably argue about it.

😎

[LawrenceChard]

2 hours ago, harrygill111 said:

 

Was it Ronan Keating who sang "You say it best when you say nothing at all"

😎

[LawrenceChard]

2 hours ago, SidS said:

From the coin dealers I've been buying from, they say that coins have been flying off the shelf, the numismatic market seems strong now and they are struggling to keep up with demand.

I'm talking proper numismatic coins here, medieval coinage through to the Victorian era. So we're not talking modern proofs and BU coins, I can't speak at how those are doing.

Bravo, well said!

[LawrenceChard]

2 hours ago, AppleZippoandMetronome said:

I think you'll always see ebbs and flows in the market but I don't think it will collapse. I also don't think the monarchy will play any appreciable role in the demand/lack of demand at any point in time. There may be some that care about that enough to boycot coins but they'll be a real minority of a minority and not enough to really matter. Digital assets could become more of a thing in the future but the way they are going I think they're closer to a Beanie Baby fad than a long term collectable.

With regards to proofs (regardless who the monarch is) the old advice was buy them because you really like them with the understanding being they'll almost always depreciate. I think the RM is heading down the same path as the RCM putting out release after release and frankly terribly diluting their brand in the process. The RM is lucky to have its history to bolster its status a bit but it will reach a point that so many releases are put out people lose interest and stuff won't even sell out. We really do need to get back to hammering home that point about proof coins... buy them because you REALLY like them as they'll almost certainly lead to a financial loss.

One thing I think people should avoid - and I've made many posts to date saying this - is the hype train. Modern proofs are a good example of something that was hyped up over the last couple of years which people are now losing loads of money with. If something is being massively hyped up to the point its value has increased when there is no real reason for that increase apart from FOMO you should probably stop and consider how sustainable the prices are before pulling the trigger. Don't get caught up in fads, basically and this applies more broadly to any collectable/asset as well as within the coin world itself.

There's a lot of good sense in all of that.

To misquote you slightly:

"We really do need to get back to hammering at home", or perhaps:

"We really do need to get back to hammering our own coins at home"

😎

[fiveshotdon]

1 hour ago, LawrenceChard said:

If I could be bothered to look for statistics, I think I would find that over 65s have more disposable income than some of the other groups.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/824464/mean-disposable-income-per-household-by-age-uk/

After 65 they have less disposable than 18-24 year olds, most people that get to retirement are not wealthy stackers.

Edited July 14, 2022 by fiveshotdon

[LawrenceChard]

6 minutes ago, fiveshotdon said:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/824464/mean-disposable-income-per-household-by-age-uk/

After 65 they have less disposable than 18-24 year olds, most people that get to retirement are not wealthy stackers.

OK, but younger people have different things to spend it on.

Retired people with too much money and nothing to spend it on are the big target market for most of the "Coin Marketing Companies", too many to name yet again here.

Also, with statistics, you need to consider the differences between mean, median, and mode.

😎

[Dom]

1 hour ago, LawrenceChard said:

At least we don't have an old-style absolute monarchy, where your above disclosure would have sealed your fate.

Our constitutional monarchy seems to work quite well; at least we avoid things like US Presidents including Trump the Terrible. Many other countries are much worse. Our royal family probably provides good value and a degree of long term stability. Of course, they are human beings with all of the attendant failures, and a degree of privilege probably compounds the situation.

If the UK has a political or constitutional problem, it is probably because we have a rather polarised opposition party first-past-the-post system, where government flip-flop between two extremes, whereas a proportional representation system would tend to produce more sensible centerist government. While not perfect, this is almost certainly better than changing direction every 4, 5, or so years, with very little incentive for longer term planning.

😎

Picking the lesser of 2 evils is still choosing evil. I prefer to choose good. Not meaning to sound like a holier-than-thou tw@ but if you take a proper look into the monarchy it appears a cesspit of child abuse and scandals. I should point out that I'm a full on libertarian and think we should have a meritocracy as opposed to a ruling elite who quite literally refer to anyone not part of their bloodline as 'the goyim'. 

Politics is a farce as well, if voting mattered they wouldn't allow it. It's there to give you the illusion of choice imo. Just my 2 pennies. Each to their own, but I actually despise the monarchy and our government too. Government: 'govern' = 'control', 'ment' = 'mind', 'government' = 'mind control'. 

[LemmyMcGregor]

12 hours ago, fiveshotdon said:

People under 30 are more interested in going out with friends than collecting coins. When people are between the ages of 30-65 they have the most disposable income. over 65 they have less income, ill health and death, so they buy less, sell or they pass on their collection which then gets sold. Will there be enough new collectors to offset the supply that is going to enter the market going forward. We have brought forward a lot of demand I feel over the last two years which has driven prices up. With the younger generation more interested in digital assets, nfts / crypto I don't see them being interested in proof sovereigns. I was collecting coins when I was a kid, I didn't have an iPad, I see no catalyst for new collectors.

Lead by example, and get them to hold one.

I am not really a coin collector, I get mostly small gold, the odd silver 1oz and when I'm bored I look on ebay for old silver coinage around spot, showed them to a friend of mine that I trust to discuss this things with and just last night he was showing me some old coins he's found and was telling me how he's interested in getting some old coinage as he really like the pre-decimalisation coins, he has some really nice post-46 shillings and half crowns, after seeing that I want to go later through my pre-46 coins to find a good half crowns to give him when I see next and see if he picks up the interest in the precious side as well.

What really caught him was when I got my first half crown, a decent 1922, and I got him to hold it, weight and look made the difference, new coins just don't have either.