Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[Zhorro]

4 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

Or if you look at the last 6 months😉

 

I was just trying to look on the bright side of life:

 

[silversky]

Seems like the inflation story is starting to gain a bit of traction.  It's just entering the long and strong third wave right now, with mainstream punditry having woken up to it.  It will require some big gains, followed by a messy fourth wave correction (fiddly little nominal rate rises), before a final charge upwards converting all those who don't believe in it.  Only after it becomes self evident to absolutely everyone will it come to an end.

I'm really not sure how well Silver will fare compared to other assets, but houses are certainly on a tear right now.  My view is that they've got another 2-3 years of seemingly unexplainable gains before the next big one hits.  Gold and Silver both look to me like they're due some solid gains over the next few years, but property even more so.  Property is where a lot of people are going to be savagely hurt.  But not before enormous gains made in the face of complete disbelief.  Getting out mid 2024 is my plan.

 

 

[Gruff]

2 minutes ago, silversky said:

Seems like the inflation story is starting to gain a bit of traction.  It's just entering the long and strong third wave right now, with mainstream punditry having woken up to it.  It will require some big gains, followed by a messy fourth wave correction (fiddly little nominal rate rises), before a final charge upwards converting all those who don't believe in it.  Only after it becomes self evident to absolutely everyone will it come to an end.

I'm really not sure how well Silver will fare compared to other assets, but houses are certainly on a tear right now.  My view is that they've got another 2-3 years of seemingly unexplainable gains before the next big one hits.  Gold and Silver both look to me like they're due some solid gains over the next few years, but property even more so.  Property is where a lot of people are going to be savagely hurt.  But not before enormous gains made in the face of complete disbelief.  Getting out mid 2024 is my plan.

 

 

What about us poor souls trying to get into property? You saying it's going to be more than 18 months before we get some market corrections to be able to try and get a foot on the ol' property ladder?

[silversky]

1 minute ago, Gruff said:

What about us poor souls trying to get into property? You saying it's going to be more than 18 months before we get some market corrections to be able to try and get a foot on the ol' property ladder?

I think it's going to rise into a dreadful peak in 2024/5.  Followed by a crash that will make all previous property market crashes look tame.

This is based on the land price cycle that's run repeatedly for nearly a century.  As land values peak, house prices follow.  Different stories propel the moves each time, but between the peaks and crashes there are many similarities.  This first leg off the last crash seemed to go on a bit longer than expected, without a mid market downturn.  But then the coof magically appeared to rescue the cycle, and there was a short sharp midcycle downturn.  The second part of the cycle seems to already have kicked in strongly.  2021 has seen strong growth and my view is that with actual inflation on the rise, there's little chance that there's going to be further midcycle corrections.  The cycle is due to end approx 2025, and I keep a note to self in the back of my mind that I must be living in a caravan by then.

Demographically, there are a lot of reasons why property will start to become available, even as politicians claim at the same time that we need to build hundreds of thousands of new ones each year.  At the moment, we have unchecked immigration which is fuelling enormous demand, but supply is going to start to increase in the coming years as currently occupied property starts to become available.  The boomer generation mostly own their own property.  Many of those properties are under occupied, which means, if rented, they clear a lot more demand than if sold.  There's a large group of people who're going to start to inherit property, and some of them are going to have to sell it to pay the inheritance tax on the estate.  The others that are rented will drive down prices by reducing demand through higher occupancy rates.  This is going to steadily build downwards pressure (despite the story of supply shortages which will be running at the time) as we reach the peak of the boomer generation passing away.  Once this mechanism tips, it will become a self propelling monster.

Buying a property is always a tough call, but I think there's a good chance that the next crash is going to see property worth a lot less than it is currently.  Albeit that's going to be in 3-4 years time from now and prices will have risen stubbornly and against all the odds in this 'transitory' period of inflation.  My opinion for what it's worth is that the time to safely buy a property was over a year ago.  I'd certainly be very cautious now unless it was perfect and was where I wanted to live for the next 20 years.

[Coverte]

19 minutes ago, silversky said:

The boomer generation mostly own their own property.  Many of those properties are under occupied, which means, if rented, they clear a lot more demand than if sold.  There's a large group of people who're going to start to inherit property, and some of them are going to have to sell it to pay the inheritance tax on the estate.  The others that are rented will drive down prices by reducing demand through higher occupancy rates.  This is going to steadily build downwards pressure (despite the story of supply shortages which will be running at the time) as we reach the peak of the boomer generation passing away.  Once this mechanism tips, it will become a self propelling monster.

Buying a property is always a tough call.

Yes, a very tough call:

If the boomer generation do it right and the property passes from the first partner dying onto the other survivor, and then onto the children, full IHT may not kick in until the total estate value is over £2 million.

With the current and ongoing increase in HMO (house in multiple occupation) applications, maybe, not as many properties will need to be sold - plus if they do get sold, it may well be to landlords for HMO purposes.

Edited November 11, 2021 by Coverte

[silversky]

2 minutes ago, Coverte said:

Yes, a very tough call:

If the boomer generation do it right and the property passes from the first partner dying onto the other survivor, and then onto the children, IHT does not kick in until the total estate value is over £2 million.

With the current and ongoing increase in HMO (house in multiple occupation) applications, maybe, not as many properties will need to be sold - plus if they do get sold, it may well be to landlords for HMO purposes.

The thing is that many of the children of the boomers already now possess their own properties.  They were a lot older before being able to buy them but they do now mostly possess property as well.  When they inherit a second home between siblings, they will either rent it out or sell it.  If it rents out and turns into HMO, it reduces accommodation demand more than a sale.  Either way, it's the sheer amount of under occupied property which is due to come onto the market in the coming years which will act against the current force of artificial population growth.  Some of the immigrants may also start to go home if things get difficult, and combined with the sudden increase in supply, this will create the perfect storm.  All just my opinion of course, but it's based off the land price cycle combined with demographics.

[silversky]

The price in GBP has exceeded yesterdays initial spike in both gold and silver.  This afternoon the price of silver in USD has exceeded yesterday but gold is just resisting.  If gold in USD exceeds yesterdays spike high then it's very likely that this run up is going to continue.  £20 next week?

[DarkChameleon]

6 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

Or if you look at the last 6 months😉

 

At least very few quick peak to troughs so should hold value based on the last 6 months, slow drop or slow rise, its hard to get the general public to go ferocious on buying yet again to make it take off beyond the scope of banks to push it down.

[Piperscoins]

On 11/11/2021 at 13:03, silversky said:

I think it's going to rise into a dreadful peak in 2024/5.  Followed by a crash that will make all previous property market crashes look tame.

This is based on the land price cycle that's run repeatedly for nearly a century.  As land values peak, house prices follow.  Different stories propel the moves each time, but between the peaks and crashes there are many similarities.  This first leg off the last crash seemed to go on a bit longer than expected, without a mid market downturn.  But then the coof magically appeared to rescue the cycle, and there was a short sharp midcycle downturn.  The second part of the cycle seems to already have kicked in strongly.  2021 has seen strong growth and my view is that with actual inflation on the rise, there's little chance that there's going to be further midcycle corrections.  The cycle is due to end approx 2025, and I keep a note to self in the back of my mind that I must be living in a caravan by then.

Demographically, there are a lot of reasons why property will start to become available, even as politicians claim at the same time that we need to build hundreds of thousands of new ones each year.  At the moment, we have unchecked immigration which is fuelling enormous demand, but supply is going to start to increase in the coming years as currently occupied property starts to become available.  The boomer generation mostly own their own property.  Many of those properties are under occupied, which means, if rented, they clear a lot more demand than if sold.  There's a large group of people who're going to start to inherit property, and some of them are going to have to sell it to pay the inheritance tax on the estate.  The others that are rented will drive down prices by reducing demand through higher occupancy rates.  This is going to steadily build downwards pressure (despite the story of supply shortages which will be running at the time) as we reach the peak of the boomer generation passing away.  Once this mechanism tips, it will become a self propelling monster.

Buying a property is always a tough call, but I think there's a good chance that the next crash is going to see property worth a lot less than it is currently.  Albeit that's going to be in 3-4 years time from now and prices will have risen stubbornly and against all the odds in this 'transitory' period of inflation.  My opinion for what it's worth is that the time to safely buy a property was over a year ago.  I'd certainly be very cautious now unless it was perfect and was where I wanted to live for the next 20 years.

What a big call. 

Baby boomers eldest are 76 -56 so you are correct they are already dying.  esp in the North.  The problem with your theory is the Government will do anything to prop up the housing market.  imo  meaning the down turn will not be as bad as it should be. 

I think you put a good argument with good merits. 

[ArgentSmith]

In real terms (gold) property peaked about 20 years ago. When measuring in fiat more paper seems to be the Central Banksters cure to every problem. You would have to get your timing perfect in order to profit from giving up a property title in exchange for fiat IMO. If you controlled interest rates it would be easy.

[silversky]

9 hours ago, Piperscoins said:

What a big call. 

Baby boomers eldest are 76 -56 so you are correct they are already dying.  esp in the North.  The problem with your theory is the Government will do anything to prop up the housing market.  imo  meaning the down turn will not be as bad as it should be. 

I think you put a good argument with good merits. 

The government of the day always tries to prop up the housing market.  And they always fail.  It doesn't matter if it's left or right politically, they're both committed to private property rights and the ability of banks to create credit.  Therefore, an exuberance always grows followed by a crash.

Between 2007 and 2011, in real terms, houses lost 25% of their value.  That 25% is the portion that most people typically own, with the rest being owned by a bank. 

The theory goes that there's a roughly 18 year cycle peak to peak (min max 17-21) which follows through in most developed western nations.  This means that a new peak should be achieved somewhere around 2024-2028, followed by approximately 4 years of correcting and losses.

This is the reason for my note to self about being out by 2024.  I'd rather miss out on the last couple of years of frenzied rises (and not be susceptible to believing that this time it's different) than be sitting on a 25% loss four years later.  It's always best to leave a bit for the next guy rather than trying to time a top too closely.

The demographics issue will really add fuel to this cycles' downturn.  That's the reason why I think that the crash will be bigger than 2007-2011 or the previous one in the 90's (I remember interest running about 15%).  Next time, there will be a huge oversupply, as grand old properties which have been locked out of the market for the last half century start to flood the market.

Personally I think gold and silver are going to do well.  But property is now in the second half of it's cycle and I think it will therefore outperform gold and silver over the next couple of years.  Who knows, I could be hideously wrong. 

[Gruff]

What is the gut feel on the non delivery months delivery contracts on the Crimex?

I've been watching these inter-delivery months for a while and Jan 2022 looks huge. Is this big players draining the Crimex? Currently it's at 1654 contracts which is 8,270,000 oz silver. That looks huge to me for a normal non-delivery month. 

 

Do you think the Crimex will allow this going forward or look to limit the deliveries in these months. I can't see that they will keep on allowing the haemorrhage of silver in months that they don't control the price more tightly. Do you think their goose is getting cooked or will they simply change the rules?

[silversky]

Turnaround Tuesday?  Looks like the slump is done to me.  At least in the short term.  Thoughts on spot xmas day?

[DarkChameleon]

54 minutes ago, silversky said:

Turnaround Tuesday?  Looks like the slump is done to me.  At least in the short term.  Thoughts on spot xmas day?

Alas experience dictates the holders steer the market, they can lift and lower at will and just did.

[DarkChameleon]

On 20/11/2021 at 19:41, Gruff said:

What is the gut feel on the non delivery months delivery contracts on the Crimex?

I've been watching these inter-delivery months for a while and Jan 2022 looks huge. Is this big players draining the Crimex? Currently it's at 1654 contracts which is 8,270,000 oz silver. That looks huge to me for a normal non-delivery month. 

 

Do you think the Crimex will allow this going forward or look to limit the deliveries in these months. I can't see that they will keep on allowing the haemorrhage of silver in months that they don't control the price more tightly. Do you think their goose is getting cooked or will they simply change the rules?

While the markets are still not on the boil the futures holders can go bear and buy back lower, their sheer holdings is enough for them to do that, the areas need stability to stop the tsunamis buys and sell from effecting, contracts with no physical does t help, its mainly ether trade right now, all digits, no physical.

[sixgun]

Maguire is saying that Standard Chartered and Goldmans are big buyers of silver and paying premiums. They hedge these physical positions on the COMEX, so to the futures centric world it looks like they are sellers when in reality this is simply them hedging their physical positions as they do. They are locking into the low prices for delivery right out to September 2022.

Edited December 4, 2021 by sixgun

[gji25]

to have a roof solar put in you have to have a massive insurance policy ?  you dont have to put solar panels on a roof.

alot of people have them on the ground 😎

[sixgun]

Seems plausible

[LukeStacker]

On 09/12/2021 at 21:00, sixgun said:

Seems plausible

Can you imagine this. However, something I've often pondered is how many people would be selling as it starts to climb and then how many people would be buying if it is rising so quickly. Although, when it happens with stocks people do jump on so you never know. 

[Paul]

remember folks - just like in 2011 when we raced up to £30oz - sentiment was - no need to sell , as the silver train was gonna race straight to £50oz in the next station

The peak price was only there for less than a month to take advantage of, it had drop -£10oz like a hot rock very soon after in matter of a few months 

back track the silver graph of 1980 high from the Hunt Brothers cornering things, the peak was again only there for a very small window of time to take advantage of the peak price.  it was never there for a sustained period of time, all them commentators and pudits seem to always fail to mention

when normally rational people, will do irrational things, like loading up at a peak price, for fear of missing out (FOMO) when their rationale side should have been buying when silver was sub-£10oz for that short window - but sentiment for silver was at its lowest

i wish now, from day one of starting my stacking journey i had just bought gold now and just ignored silver entirely 

hindsight and experience {sigh}  

[LukeStacker]

4 minutes ago, Paul said:

remember folks - just like in 2011 when we raced up to £30oz - sentiment was - no need to sell , as the silver train was gonna race straight to £50oz in the next station

The peak price was only there for less than a month to take advantage of, it had drop -£10oz like a hot rock very soon after in matter of a few months 

back track the silver graph of 1980 high from the Hunt Brothers cornering things, the peak was again only there for a very small window of time to take advantage of the peak price.  it was never there for a sustained period of time, all them commentators and pudits seem to always fail to mention

when normally rational people, will do irrational things, like loading up at a peak price, for fear of missing out (FOMO) when their rationale side should have been buying when silver was sub-£10oz for that short window - but sentiment for silver was at its lowest

i wish now, from day one of starting my stacking journey i had just bought gold now and just ignored silver entirely 

hindsight and experience {sigh}  

Interesting that you think to ignore silver, I think silver has more potential than gold, but I think gold is a safer option and definitely easier to sell. 

[FlorinCollector]

@LukeStacker Buying Silver might have been one of the only trades this year that you lost money on. 

[Paul]

8 minutes ago, LukeStacker said:

Interesting that you think to ignore silver, I think silver has more potential than gold, but I think gold is a safer option and definitely easier to sell. 

im not ignoring silver - i have a heavy position in silver, i'm still waiting for to go to the moon for the reasons i was told in 2007/2008

the same reasons & arguments for it have not changed since i started stacking 

my question is just WHY ? isn't it where it should have been 20+ years ago 

If nothing has changed in 20 years, who's to say, it is not going to be exactly the same for another twenty years 

To invest 40 years of time/money into something that break evens - a wise investment ? 

We still had mobiles, laptops, PCs, solar panels, cameras in 2000s that needed silver 

It always seems to be wait, it is just round the corner before the silver rocket    🚀  🚀🚀blasts off to the moon !   my bloody silver rocket will have got a wheel clamp and parking ticket knowing my luck  

Edited December 31, 2021 by Paul

[LukeStacker]

Just now, FlorinCollector said:

@LukeStacker Buying Silver might have been one of the only trades this year that you lost money on. 

Funnily enough, as I've bought consistently and close to spot it has actually done OK. Silver is a long term game and more a wealth protector than an investment, so to speak. Flipping some sought after coins and some new releases has helped as well. 

[LukeStacker]

1 minute ago, Paul said:

im not ignoring silver - i have a heavy position in silver, i'm still waiting for to go to the moon for the reasons i was told in 2007/2008

the same reasons & arguments for it have not changed since i started stacking 

my question is just WHY ? isn't it where it should have been 20+ years ago 

If nothing has changed in 20 years, who's to say, it is not going to be exactly the same for another twenty years 

To invest 40 years of time/money into something that break evens - a wise investment ? 

We still had mobiles, laptops, PCs, solar panels, cameras in 2000s 

It always seems to be wait, it is just round the corner before the silver rocket    🚀  🚀🚀blasts off to the moon !   my bloody silver rocket will have got a wheel clamp and parking ticket knowing my luck  

Yes I hear you, I think having money parked in it is a good idea, and if you have a solid silver position already then makes sense to slow down and switch to other things, just to spread your risk out.