The coming Gold crash

[silenceissilver]

27 minutes ago, TheApe said:

 

In a way I want gold to go up because I make some money.

But when it goes up I want it to go down so I can purchase some more. 

Im an odd man.

Same. But the good thing it, whatever way it goes, it's positive.

[jultorsk]

2 hours ago, Wonger said:

It means there is an entity out there who is now betting very heavily on a Gold price decline and that entity happens to control the price direction, do you want to trade against them? 😉 

---

 

Entity. Sounds like "You-Know-Who" or "He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named" 😬😜 

And I repeat the earlier comment... 

A note also re COT. If you go back and have a look at the 2015/16 bear really - you'll see COT was completely misleading - only specs were long initially.

COT is only a good indicator on trends. It is a contrarian indicator on inflections either in direction or sharp changes in price velocity - because producers are always looking for 'one step down' and specs 'one step up'.

Meanwhile...

 

[5huggy]

12 minutes ago, jultorsk said:

Meanwhile...

 

YEP thats a definite OOOps!! or the chart is upside down - 😉

[Prophecy]

Do you think a Wonger margin call gofundme page would be successful in here?

[dicker]

If you want some cracking graphs and an alternative view, this is worth a read!

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4354712-gold-futures-buying-firepower-mounts

Some of the comments at the bottom are highly amusing.....

Best

Dicker

[KRO]

2 hours ago, Wonger said:

Shorting more Gold futures here $1791

oh no $1807

remember
Is a massive short squeeze at hand in the gold market?  One of the greats in the business just warned, “There is no escape for them (the gold shorts).”

[Wonger]

6 hours ago, jultorsk said:

Entity. Sounds like "You-Know-Who" or "He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named" 😬😜 

And I repeat the earlier comment... 

A note also re COT. If you go back and have a look at the 2015/16 bear really - you'll see COT was completely misleading - only specs were long initially.

COT is only a good indicator on trends. It is a contrarian indicator on inflections either in direction or sharp changes in price velocity - because producers are always looking for 'one step down' and specs 'one step up'.

Meanwhile...

 

At the top the Speculators are holding maximum long positions, hence Commercial maximum short, hint like right now!

[5huggy]

10 hours ago, Wonger said:

At the top the Speculators are holding maximum long positions, hence Commercial maximum short, hint like right now!

This looks a bit different! 😉👍 $1800 🤔

[jultorsk]

Hint hint.

[cornishrich]

£1600 by the years end? 

[mr-dead]

Edited July 8, 2020 by mr-dead

[KRO]

13 hours ago, Wonger said:

At the top the Speculators are holding maximum long positions, hence Commercial maximum short, hint like right now!

Not so fast Wonger

 

In the non-speculator category, the Swaps are more short than they were in July 2016 despite open interest being 71,372 contracts lower. The mark-to-market value is record net short at $36.6 billion. What has happened is the Producer/Merchants have cut their positions, presumably deciding that hedging mine output is less important in the current inflationary environment. Consequently, the bullion banks are bearing 71% of the short exposure.

The speculator category makes this more interesting still. At 138,555 net long, hedge funds are only 25,000 contracts longer than average, and compared with their bullishness in July 2016 have hardly got going. It is the other categories, Other Reported and Non-reported have taken 56% of the long side, and they are not behaving like skittish hedge funds at all. These include family offices, the ultra-wealthy and foreigners through Globex who are standing for delivery as a means of getting their hands on physical bullion —171 tonnes from the June contract alone.

Conclusion

Bullion banks are between a rock and a hard place. For years they’ve been playing the hedge funds as an angler hooks and plays a fish. That game has ceased and there is no easy way for them to get level. For the moment they are trying to put a lid on the price, but the cost has been rising open interest, and therefore rising mark-to-market positions.

The August active contract runs off the board at the end of this month and bullion banks are likely to be forced into large delivery volumes again. Furthermore, the exchange for delivery arbitrage facility between Comex and the LBMA is broken, allowing Comex premiums to London spot to go unchallenged.

It is increasingly possible the gold contract is evolving into deep crisis, and that force majeuremight have to be declared if, as seems increasingly inevitable, a wider banking crisis ensues.

 

---

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/a-potential-crisis-in-comex-gold

 

[5huggy]

4 hours ago, jultorsk said:

Hint hint.

   

[Kookaburracollector]

Don’t know why but I just like this picture 😃

[Wonger]

On 08/07/2020 at 12:50, KRO said:

Not so fast Wonger

 

In the non-speculator category, the Swaps are more short than they were in July 2016 despite open interest being 71,372 contracts lower. The mark-to-market value is record net short at $36.6 billion. What has happened is the Producer/Merchants have cut their positions, presumably deciding that hedging mine output is less important in the current inflationary environment. Consequently, the bullion banks are bearing 71% of the short exposure.

The speculator category makes this more interesting still. At 138,555 net long, hedge funds are only 25,000 contracts longer than average, and compared with their bullishness in July 2016 have hardly got going. It is the other categories, Other Reported and Non-reported have taken 56% of the long side, and they are not behaving like skittish hedge funds at all. These include family offices, the ultra-wealthy and foreigners through Globex who are standing for delivery as a means of getting their hands on physical bullion —171 tonnes from the June contract alone.

Conclusion

Bullion banks are between a rock and a hard place. For years they’ve been playing the hedge funds as an angler hooks and plays a fish. That game has ceased and there is no easy way for them to get level. For the moment they are trying to put a lid on the price, but the cost has been rising open interest, and therefore rising mark-to-market positions.

The August active contract runs off the board at the end of this month and bullion banks are likely to be forced into large delivery volumes again. Furthermore, the exchange for delivery arbitrage facility between Comex and the LBMA is broken, allowing Comex premiums to London spot to go unchallenged.

It is increasingly possible the gold contract is evolving into deep crisis, and that force majeuremight have to be declared if, as seems increasingly inevitable, a wider banking crisis ensues.

 

---

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/a-potential-crisis-in-comex-gold

 

My conclusion is that only a Gold vendor could try and spin a story that Commercial Banks being $36B short is bullish for the Gold price after what he has admitted happened previously when the same Commercial Banks were only $25B short, the truth is the Commercial Banks short position is much higher, therefore the drop will be much larger as those holding the other side of the trade are flushed out by the Commercial Banks, its inevitable and the higher the Gold price goes the more the Commercial Banks have added to these short positions, tick tock goes the clock and if Alasdair wants to purchase futures contracts, we will sell him all he wants, however I have a feeling he would not be keen to do so as a Gold Vendor 

Edited July 10, 2020 by Wonger

[dicker]

I think you win the award for the longest sentence on the forum.

Best

Dicker

[Wonger]

5 minutes ago, dicker said:

I think you win the award for the longest sentence on the forum.

Best

Dicker

If you think long contracts standing for delivery would stop the Commercial Banks dropping the price then keep watching, nice short sentence for you! 😁

[TheApe]

Serious question.

If gold crashes in 2032 is Wonger proven right?

[Wonger]

1 minute ago, TheApe said:

Serious question.

If gold crashes in 2032 is Wonger proven right?

No as I said by end of 2021 for all to see!

[TheApe]

On 24/03/2020 at 19:17, Wonger said:

I now predict that Gold will crash in excess of $1000 from here and it started today, see you at $400-$600 area guys and gals!

Very first post, "it started today".

🤣

Months later, "by end of 2021".

Edited July 10, 2020 by TheApe

[TheApe]

Wonger have you considered a hobby that might better you?

[Wonger]

4 minutes ago, TheApe said:

Very first post, "it started today".

🤣

Months later, "by end of 2021".

Months later, are you sure? If so read again!

[Wonger]

6 minutes ago, TheApe said:

Wonger have you considered a hobby that might better you?

Have you considered posting why Gold will continue to rise in price, show us all your wisdom?

[mr-dead]

54 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Months later, are you sure? If so read again!

[TheApe]

The best bit is he is now stating end of 2021 for crash. 

And several times in this thread he states hes been predicting crash for the last 2 years, now its finally about to happen.

So thats four years hes giving himself.🤣

 

As long as he can keep the negative attention coming, hes happy. Doesnt matter what gold does. Theres one on every forum.