Pep talk: don't sell your PM now

[sixgun]

Just now, Groundup said:

I noticed the bounce back. It doesn't normally do this.It did start me thinking.... I'm not a technical or chart reader (I do follow price) but I think someone somewhere mention that there's a resistance line approaching, the way that bounce back happened and so quickly...maybe some more upside to be had regardless.

If you draw back on the chart you can see gold found support at around $1525 - 30 on 3 occassions in 2011 and 2012. Price was rejected from this level this week. Support turned resistance. So yes we could see a dance around this level before price busts through this ceiling and on to the next. Personally i would expect to see consolidation for a while - price has stepped up quite a bit so it is generally healthy for there to be a settling in period before the next foray upward.

[goldmember44]

The thing with holding physical gold is, the only risk there really is, is if someone steals your goods. Prices may go up and down, but because you own the gold, you will never receive a margin call from a broker, wanting more cash to maintain your gold holdings... hence if you are in it for the longer haul, it is a nice and peaceful investment, you don't have to lose sleep over it. I certainly don't. If the price goes down, it makes me happy because then I can buy more gold for cheaper. And if it goes up... well then my net worth increases along with the gold I already own. So as far as I'm concerned it's a win-win scenario. Gold is also very liquid and you will always find a buyer for your gold, for more or less spot price, if you ever needed cash for an emergency. I remember when I dabbled in the stock market, I was a nervous wreck and watched the prices all the time.

[Roy]

8 minutes ago, goldmember44 said:

it is a nice and peaceful investment, you don't have to lose sleep over it. I certainly don't.

Basically, yes.

Until you hold a lot of it and you see swings of £1000 plus every day. Then you don't sleep so well.

It's human nature to convert those those swings into (worthless) goods.

I have my 'gurus' on the forum and I'm advised to hold, so I will.

[goldmember44]

1 minute ago, Roy said:

Basically, yes.

Until you hold a lot of it and you see swings of £1000 plus every day. Then you don't sleep so well.

It's human nature to convert those those swings into (worthless) goods.

I have my 'gurus' on the forum and I'm advised to hold, so I will.

Ahh... yes... the more wealth we have, the more worries... very very true.

[Au79]

Sell at least one if you have not sold one before to find out how yourself the feelings to part your precious metal for profit. Either you learn to cherish your precious metal more or more fiat for yours truely 😆

[AgCoyote]

At the end of the day all fiat currencies have gone to zero. I see no reason to believe the bozos who run our societies will be able to rule wisely and avoid a historic fact. I see a world that's drowning in debt. I see a world full of insane politicians who genuinely believe it's morally correct to steal from one group and give to another politically favored group. How is this at all tenable or sustainable? I think it's absolutely crazy to consider selling at a time like this. Gold/Silver are the magic rowboats off the Titanic. Having substantial holdings assure that you will maintain your wealth and ultimately increase your purchasing power.

One thing I know is that sure it can be exciting to hold a stack of 100 dollar bills but it's far more empowering to hold some gold or silver.

[HawkHybrid]

8 minutes ago, AgCoyote said:

At the end of the day all fiat currencies have gone to zero.

 

fiat currencies have never been valued at more

than zero. when you make a trade with a fiat

currency you are you are recognising the promise

as having value.

 

HH

 

[Zhorro]

3 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

fiat currencies have never been valued at more than zero.

 

If they have no value, PLEASE give me all your fiat currency!

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, Zhorro said:

If they have no value, PLEASE give me all your fiat currency!

 

more stupidity.

the paper currency have no value, it's the

promise of payment that have value.

(the stupid are those who copy stupidity

said by others who think they are clever)

 

do read the entire post before cherry picking

parts to push forward your ideas.

 

the idea that currency goes to zero is put

forward by physical silver sellers such as

mike maloney. it is a way to skew people into

thinking they are being robbed. currency never

goes to zero. ie you will never hold a valuable

currency and then be robbed of it's value.

paper currency is already at zero so can never

go to zero. the value disappears when the

promise to pay disappears. it's not the paper

currency that's at fault.

 

HH

Edited August 15, 2019 by HawkHybrid

[sixgun]

2 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

the value disappears when the promise to pay disappears.

HH

The promise to pay what?

i promise to pay the bearer the sum of 5 pounds - what is £5? If i go to the BoE what will i get? What is this £5? The note is a promissory note - we know it was 5 sovereigns but that ended in 1931 so what is that now? £5 doesn't exist? - is it an entry in a ledger - a mark on a book or a screen? If i withdrew my £5 i would get another promissory note - so in practice £5 doesn't exist - it is a fraud from the outset. The promise disappeared in 1931.

Of course we are being robbed - it's called inflation. The purchasing power of the promise gets less and less. The value is heading to zero - it is theft by stelth and as i pointed out fraud from the outset.

Edited August 15, 2019 by sixgun

[HawkHybrid]

promise to pay £5's worth of goods and services.

(as long as everyone agrees to measure distance

using a meter stick, the definition of how long a

meter stick is, is not important)

the value is not heading to zero, as the value has

always been zero. the value of the paper as

described is worth little or close to nothing. this is

very misleading. it's not the paper that you are

trading.

think of it this way, why is a picture, sculpture worth

more than the paper/stone etc. that it is made from?

the promise to pay is intangible, you cannot measure

it using something that is tangible(the actual paper

notes, £5, £10 etc.)

the promise to pay is a reflection of society,

government. think of zimbabwe when they lost the

promise to pay on their zimbabwe dollar. what was

life like for the people of zimbabwe?

inflation is a reflection of society not of currency.

inflation is effectively a tax imposed by governments

on those that it governs. are taxes robbery?

 

remember this for those who eagerly await a currency

collapse:

currency promise to pay = society/government health

 

HH

Edited August 15, 2019 by HawkHybrid

[KDave]

The means to produce credit arguably has value, but still the currency generated as credit does not have any value. The relative stability of the number of currency units has value, but only for its use as a measuring stick against actual goods, services, time. The need to pay taxes in currency also does not make currency valuable - currency is only the means to exchange the value of a portion of your time/effort/sales/goods/ to the government as efficiently as possible. Your time is the value. Your goods sold are the value. Your effort and innovation is the value - a portion exchanged into government spending on services or goods (welfare usually) - other value - via currency. Currency is extremely efficient at the transfer of value, but it is not valuable in itself.

As HH keeps saying there is nothing inherently valuable about currency. The problem is people who use currency. They measure items of exchange in terms of currency, they value their time in terms of currency, most people can recite the price of many many items in their currency. It is not the fault of currency that the end result is people incorrectly associating currency with value.

The means that government takes its taxes is the same measure that they steal from people who save in currency - why are they saving in currency is the question to ask. Don't they know its worthless? 

[Ablist]

On 14/08/2019 at 09:10, vand said:

A plea to you all: sit on your hands.

We stand on the breakout of what will very likely be one of the greatest bull markets of our lifetime. Think about what has happened over the last 10 years: unprecedented level of stimulus into a monetary system that is no longer fit for purpose. This is much worse than the abuse of the system that drove the prior PM bull markets of 1971-1980 and 1999-2011. 

The fallout from this crazy experiment will drive the price of gold by similar factors over the next decade, just as it did during the previous bull markets. Bull markets always run longer and further than nearly all their early adopters think is possible.

PMs will be valued many multiples higher in the years to come. Scoot on over to a "mainstream" investment site like MrMoneyMustache or MoneysavingExpert and gold doesn't even figure on the radar. They are ALL about passive index funds and chasing the stock market. They worship VTSAX. If you are lucky you might find someone holding 20% bonds. They won't even look at gold until it has at least doubled from current levels, and even then they will be some of the earlier adopters. 

There will come a time to sell your PMs and buy something that is better value, but that time is still years away. It will be when everyone thinks it is a good time to be overweight on gold, when Dow/Gold is somewhere between a half to a quarter of its current level.

I agree. If you want to make money in PMs short term flip proofs and Numismatics. Hold your Bullion. I feel richer already hehe

[5huggy]

15 hours ago, Roy said:

It's human nature to convert those those swings into (worthless) goods.

Ive just realised this ! -Wife does agree! 😲

IM NOT HUMAN!   🤣

[5huggy]

Seriously tho - - I tend NOT to do good stuff into crud -  

Cars as an example - - instant loss as soon as you drive of the lot!  - depreciate in general faster than a downhill skier

Unless RARE CLASSIC CARS!

[5huggy]

7 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

for those who eagerly await a currency

collapse:

I HOPE LIKE HELL we don't see this awful scenario - -

but do see it is a possibility or at the very least (as you've alluded to @HawkHybrid)  a debasement!

Inflation is any Governments surreptitious method to slowly remove their own debts ( Created on the peoples behalf Phhhh! - )

ITS A HIDDEN TAX in that most people NEVER  SEE  IT!!!

SO I HEDGE with the  alternative of "PM's"

and the bonus is I enjoy the creation of  - - - >>

MY OWN COLLECTION (No one else is going to have exactly the same as me! )

By way of example - - I would not mind "betting" I am the only one on this forum that has one of these! Its an awesome solid lump of 4.75oz Ag

[MLNCoins]

2 hours ago, 5huggy said:

Seriously tho - - I tend NOT to do good stuff into crud -  

Cars as an example - - instant loss as soon as you drive of the lot!  - depreciate in general faster than a downhill skier

Unless RARE CLASSIC CARS!

That entirely depends on what car you're buying though, if you have a budget of say £10k for a classic car but it needs 4k repairs after buying it (very possible if engine needs rebuild), then you're 40% in the red already of original market value, that's even if you bought it at the value its actually worth

Classic cars require you knowing your stuff, or you could get burned big time and fall into a money pit.

Unless you're talking silly money and get a Ferrari GTO then it wouldn't matter.

Edited August 16, 2019 by nee4891

[Au79]

Drivers that make money on top of the car rent/payment has a NET positive against a new car’s depreciation or a depreciated old car 😮

[TonyS]

6 hours ago, 5huggy said:

By way of example - - I would not mind "betting" I am the only one on this forum that has one of these! Its an awesome solid lump of 4.75oz Ag

What's its melt value?

[CadmiumGreen]

6 hours ago, 5huggy said:

MY OWN COLLECTION (No one else is going to have exactly the same as me! )

By way of example - - I would not mind "betting" I am the only one on this forum that has one of these! Its an awesome solid lump of 4.75oz Ag

[5huggy]

2 minutes ago, TonyS said:

4.75oz Ag/925

 

Whatever the spot is WHEN ONE DAY IT GETS MELTED!

bit like these ones really - - 

[5huggy]

@CadmiumGreen - - you just made me pour cuppa all down front of myself!  THATS BRILL!

😂      🤣😂      🤣😂      🤣😂      🤣

[vand]

The last 3 months is nothing in the overall scheme of things.

Sentiment will take YEARS to swing around to a point where PMs are eagarly positioned in the wider investment community. Don't underestimate how dumb the dumb money is; there is still huge distrust of PMs and a total misunderstanding of their role within an investment portfolio.  At this point of the cycle we have the institutional investors who are starting to accumulate gold. The "retail investor" stage is still years away.

All I see right now is people who are taking advantage of the recent bump to sell their gold and swap it for VTSAX. They will be the ones missing out on the next great bull market. Their expectations are clouded by what stocks have done vs what PMs have done for the last 5 years.

 

[KDave]

I like the long term bullish outlook but what are the alternative scenarios. How long was it between the last two bull markets in metals. Commodities cycles are very long, 7 years bear is not very long in gold market terms. Why not expect a repeat of the 80's and 90's price action, the recent move looks a lot like the 80's charts, an echo of 2011 before the long grind lower. 

[goldmember44]

1 hour ago, vand said:

All I see right now is people who are taking advantage of the recent bump to sell their gold and swap it for VTSAX. They will be the ones missing out on the next great bull market. Their expectations are clouded by what stocks have done vs what PMs have done for the last 5 years.

Wow, indeed... to get out of gold now, and push that money into the stock market instead at this point seems totally irresponsible. All the warning signs are there for the global economy, we are anticipating recession.. the stock market has had an amazing run-up until now... but the tides are turning. There will be another opportunity to get into stocks again for the next equities bull market, but many things need to get resolved before then, and stocks need to bottom out.

Edited August 28, 2019 by goldmember44