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vand last won the day on May 14 2019

vand had the most liked content!

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  1. RSilver and RGold is just how far price is away from the 200day simple moving average. https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/dictionary/relative-gold/
  2. When traders point out how correlated gold and Yen seem to be, I always sigh. Of course they are.. currencies are pairs trades, short one/long the other. When one currency is going down that tends to mean its going down against everything else. Gold/USD is partly a currency trade, and so the negative relationship is generally true, but like other currency pairs, and there can be periods were both trend together, just as USD and GBP can both get weaker against other major currencies. JPY/USD has about -0.9 correlated to Gold/USD AUD/USD has about -0.8 correlation to Gold/USD
  3. Recent price action is nicely supportive, as we are still around £20 and the moving averages are catching up. The r-Silver ratio has already contracted from 1.65 to 1.4. My guess is that we're probably still closer to the start of the correction than we are to the end of it, and another few weeks are probably needed. I have money ready to deploy but not in an immediate hurry.
  4. vand

    How much is too much

    From https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-psychology-of-money/
  5. vand

    How much is too much

    I like that flowchart, but it's more of a guide to getting your personal finances in order rather than a guide in how to invest. Personal finance and investing have some overlap but also plenty of non-overlap too. Good personal finance provides the base of the pyramid and if done well then that may be enough to enable you to meet all your financial goals. Focussing on investing - the top of the pyramid - will always crumble without first getting the base of the pyramid right. I've never known anyone who's been able to succeed at the top levels of the pyramid enough to make up for having a poor base. I advocate people paying attention to both. Put them together and you get: Personal Finance + Investing Plan = Wealth Building Plan
  6. Indiscriminate periodic rebalancing is far less logical to me than threshold-based rebalancing. The idea for rebalancing is to keep your portfolio's risk profile within tolerable range by taking advantage of mechanical selling high/buying low, but when the markets move quickly then your portfolio can get out of balance quickly regardless of chronological timeframes. The recent bear/bull market in the S&P is a very obvious example... if your strategy is to only rebalance once a year then you would have completely missed out on any rebalancing over the last 6 months and the opportunity to buy stocks while they were cheap. Yes, sure, in practice markets don't move so fast that annual or quarterly rebalancing don't adequately capture that benefit.. but sometimes they do.
  7. vand

    How much is too much

    This a very incomplete - almost useless - discussion without getting a much clearer picture someone's overall financial position, goals and overall financial plan. - Do you have an sizeable emergency fund? - What is your savings rate? - Have you paid down all high interest debt? - Are you making the most of your employer's pension match? - Are you making the most of your L-ISA and pension allowance? - Do you have a house, are you saving for one, do you have a mortgage? - What are you realistic goals in the next 2, 5, 10 & 20 years? - What is your expectation for your investments? - How do you think gold helps you? - What is your attitude for risk? How much does predictability of returns matter to you? - How stable is your job? etc etc. Gold doesn't even enter the discussion until you have a stable financial base and the discussion has moved on to your strategy for preserving and building long term wealth.
  8. I have to say that non-bullion doesn't interest me at all. The idea that you can scoop up loads of sterling or pre-1947 coins and think that you can easily liquidate it for anything better than bought it for (in relation to spot price) is asanine. I'd much rather just continue buying a silver ETF.
  9. Best method I can recommend for understanding this is Stan Weinstein's stage analysis. Big fan of his book. Right up any Chartist's alley.
  10. Price action suggests a very real chance we will move above the recent high rather than go below the recent low. With gold at $2000 right now I think it’s a coin flip whether we see $2200 or $1800 first.
  11. If its a 30yr cycle surely we're just seen the top of the cycle (1990 - 2020) and silver is the metal you want most exposure to for the next 20 years to coincide with the next bottom (1980-2010-2040)
  12. I don't "sell". I make considered decisions about my asset allocation.
  13. vand

    The coming Gold crash

    Wonger got faded by Dalio lol https://markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/gold-price-ray-dalio-invested-400-million-precious-metal-q2-2020-8-1029501695
  14. Hmm. The idea of 30% Cash/Bills isn't very appealing to me in today's environment. Here is how the PP would have done if you have completely removed the cash component and done 1/3rd in each of the other assets (PP TR levered vs PP TR) IMO I think starting with where the world is today, overweighting gold and global equities and underweighting fixed income components will beat the classic PP over the next decade - maybe not on risk-adjusted basis, but still with very acceptable risk and a higher overall return.
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