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vand

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vand last won the day on May 14 2019

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  1. 3300? Good luck waiting for that. While anything is possible I would say that the chances of seeing that level in my lifetime is probably < 10%. Good investing is about accumulating assets on a consistent basis while balancing risk and reward to still being able to take advantage of big opportunities. It's not about basing your investment plan around tail end outcomes.
  2. Incidentally if I strip out the cash from my own portfolios those ratios are not a million miles to my AA, which currently looks something like: PMs/miners: 35% equities: 50% REITs 5% Bonds 7% Other 3%
  3. Well he gives his reasons for his AA, and that is essentially that his oversize gold position is due to his "speculative portfolio" being fully composed of PMs. So probably not significantly at least until he sees a much more favourable risk/return in equities. I personally find the dividing line between gold/equities to be massively blurred when you hold a significant portion of your portfolio in gold miners.. although technically they're equities they are obviously a play on gold too.
  4. I think I'll bump this thread every week to remind people predicting a crash that they're wrong and still wrong. Week #1 guys. See you next week. I may stop when we take out the all time highs (and the crashmongers are still sitting on the sidelines)
  5. This diversification thing might have something about it if even belangp holds 42% of his portfolio in equities:
  6. My rather bold prediction, for FWIW: FTSE to climb back past 7,000+ in 6 months Why? It's not really about the FTSE. There is a popularity contest taking place on the other side of the pond, one in which the sitting incumbent will bully and pressurize the Fed to do whatever it takes to reinflate the market back up to and even past the old highs. In his mind the stock market is a vindication of his tenure, so he needs to have it saying to the voters that they've never had it so good. That is why I think Dow 30k+, FTSE 7k are very distinct possibilities. Nothing to do with fundamentals; short term stock market action rarely is.
  7. well it only took a few days to change your crash thesis then, I guess
  8. so you're saying it could be higher or lower with the midpoint exactly where we currently are. N0 SH1T SHERLOCK!
  9. How early you get to retire (reach financial independence) is largely an inverse function of your savings rate. https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/ It's the same principle as "it takes x% increase to get back to break even following a y% drawdown" but in reverse. Save 15% or less and you can pretty much "look forward" to retirement in line with state pension age. That's why so much conventional financial advise shoots around this figure. But things get interesting as you start to dramatically increase your savings rate past 50% - you can become financially independent 15-20 years, and 10yrs or less if you can save 2/3rds of your income. It's probably not going to happen for those on a median salary, but I also think its within reach of more people if they really want it and are prepared to put in the necessary work to have decent career earnings and self discipline not to splurge it all.
  10. I hate to say this @KDave but the Bond market does not agree with you. Long term rates suggest that these current conditions are here to stay for the foreseeable future. Now that outlook could change over the next few years, but right here, right now, that's not what the market is suggesting. We haven't even seen the start of it.
  11. I hate to say it, and it should be blindingly obvious by now: DON'T FIGHT THE FED. For a long time now the Fed have done a very effective job in ensuring new currency create goes into supporting financial assets instead of goods and services. Who knows how long it can continue? Until we start to see consumer price inflation really start to take off then you are foolish to try to bet against this continuing. Yes, by all logical explanations inflation should start to increase, but you know what? We just got a 0.8% YoY CPI print. It ain't happening.. at least not yet. Maybe we will get an inflation spike in the near future, but are you counting on this as your whole investment thesis? How has that played out in the last decade? Right now consumer demand has collapsed, energy prices have collapsed. If the Fed was propping up the markets before then... nothing has changed. Trade what you see, not what you think.
  12. £28 will seem cheap by the time the FOMO phase of this cycle is upon us.
  13. What does it matter if I say I expect it to be higher and it's actually lower.. or vice versa? The downside of me being wrong is nothing because I'm buying throughout the period regardless. If that sounds evasive to you then.. I don't really give a shoite. Armchair geniuses like you are 2 a penny on the internet. If you want to be taken serious then I suggest you post ALL your trades - entry and exit - ahead of making them. If you have a market beating track record after 5 years I'll happily acknowledge you to be a genius, otherwise you're just another monday morning quarterback.
  14. You're asking the wrong question. Level 1 thinkers always do that. It's not all that important to me where it is in 6 months, because I'm investing with a much longer time horizon in mind. I would argue that if you are worried about where the market will be in 6 months then all you're doing is speculating, you're not investing at all. Investing requires patience for long term secular changes to be reflected in prices, which takes place over years, not months.
  15. Some much level-1 thinking on here.. quite depressing for a supposedly clued up forum.
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