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vand

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vand last won the day on May 14 2019

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  1. Another thing that Drunkenmiller said about Soros is that "he's the best loss taker I've ever seen." It makes sense. When you bet big you have better be ready to cut your losses without hesitation, regret or remorse when it goes against you, ready to fight another day.
  2. 10:1 is possible; anything is possible. However if and when it does eventually happen, I can gaurantee you that most of the early silver adopters won't be around to benefit from it. The vast majority of people are pyschologically ill equipped to handle huge run ups in price and will be bagging their profits way, way earlier. The need to balance staying invested all the way to the peak of the bubble and keeping your portfolio balanced is incredibly difficult. I've actually been thinking a lot about this recently, and having been coming up with a plan that I can follow if silver "does a rhodium".
  3. Yep.. isn't that what you wanted? wasn't very clear from your OP.
  4. The main argument is simply that silver is a much smaller and tighter market. It will take only a tiny amount of "big money" deciding that they want a piece of the action to have a big impact on the demand/supply balance with corresponding price volatility.
  5. We've had an incredible last 4 months - it will take more than just a couple of days or even weeks for the correction to play out. Now is not the time to be aggressively adding to your positions. Back in the early 2000s bull market silver would typically correct 30% from this sort of position and then spend 12-18 months building back up to its old highs.
  6. 6% is nothing.. I think it will correct more like 25-30%.
  7. Have we seen a short term top? Silver now down a full $2 from its overnight highs as the USD finds some buyers.
  8. @KDave, thought it might be a good idea to read what Drunkenmiller said was the greatest lesson he learnt from Soros: https://acquirersmultiple.com/2017/11/stanley-druckenmiller-the-greatest-lesson-i-ever-learned-from-george-soros/ "Soros has taught me that when you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig. It takes courage to ride a profit with huge leverage. As far as Soros is concerned, when you’re right on something, you can’t own enough. Although I was not at Soros Management at the time, I’ve heard that prior to the Plaza Accord meeting in the fall of 1985, other traders in the office had been piggybacking George and hence were long the yen going into the meeting. When the yen opened 800 points higher on Monday morning, these traders couldn’t believe the size of their gains and anxiously started taking profits. Supposedly, George came bolting out of the door, directing the other traders to stop selling the yen, telling them that he would assume their position. While these other traders were congratulating themselves for having taken the biggest profit in their lives, Soros was looking at the big picture: The government had just told him that the dollar was going to go down for the next year, so why shouldn’t he be a pig and buy more [yen]?"
  9. Gary's timeframe would also roughly fit in with belangp's, who had a stab at it in this video:
  10. Gary Savage (Smart Money Tracker) is one of the few traders who I bother paying attention to. He says gold will go into a bubble phase after the correction has played out for the current upswing, in which gold should go to $7,000-$10,000 That's some forecast. Not in terms of the size of the move (I've also maintained that a 500%+ trough to peak move should be expected in an "average" bull market) , but in the timeframe he's expecting it to play out.. within the next 18 months or so. I though it would take a few years and only peak in the back half of this decade.
  11. I actually have some respect for Hulbert, who weighs in with his piece: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-is-a-foolish-place-to-put-your-money-right-now-if-you-check-the-facts-2020-08-07?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts The underpinning of his argument is wrong though. He assumes that there is no reason for gold's real purchasing power to increase over time. But that is a naive assumption. Gold is good money, and good money benefits from increased economic prosperity in seeing its real purchasing power appreciate by 1-2% a year. You don't need to own the stock of companies to benefit from the good things that companies do for us. You just need to own good money which appreciates in real value as the beneficiary of ongoing productivity increases.
  12. Premium on physical investment grade gold coins/rounds/bars is usually 1-2% while on silver it's more like 15%+, so work in relation to what are typical prices for physical, not spot price.
  13. Well he's probably right in that we are seeing short term FOMO and those are the sort of johnny come lately buyers that don't understand what they're buying and so will dump it when it corrects 20%. But it's a good sign that we are nowhere near the greed phase. When mainstream financial writers say that everyone should put 20% into gold then that is when we need to start thinking about doing the opposite.
  14. I once again advise caution here.. Silver is current stretched as far above its 200dma (about 64%) as it was at previous short term peaks during its early 2000s climb: Pullback is surely imminent.
  15. The HUI index hasn't even completed its base yet:
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