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Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only


Paul
Message added by ChrisSilver

This topic is to discuss price action in GBP, to discuss price action in $ USD, please see this topic: https://thesilverforum.com/topic/19962-gold-monitoring-thread-usd-only/

📌 For general non PM chat there is the Hangout topic here: 

 

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3 hours ago, Spark268 said:

I don't understand the question in your second post. When money is created, its given to someone, who can chose to spend it on something.  The owner of that something gets the money and spends it on something else. In theory, this increased demand raises the prices of these things that have been bought. Since '09 however, most of that money either sits in a bank account or only gets spent on bonds and stocks, so it hasn't really impacted other things including gold.

Thanks for your reply.

When I say does the newly created money sometimes sit against gold, I was thinking when central banks create it out of nothing and this is debt and debt has to sit somewhere and wondered if it sat against gold until the newly created debt (money) found a home.

I agree, it is difficult to understand, so I'm trying to put myself in the likes of Powell's shoes to try to grasp some understanding, whether it be right or wrong 😉

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On 05/04/2021 at 18:38, SidS said:

I always thought it odd that many banknotes of the era were denominated in pounds (great for swapping into silver coinage) but not so great for swapping into guineas, where you'd have to pay a shilling coin with your note to get the gold coin.

 

Not surprising at all, because the pound sterling was a "unit of account", and has been since Anglo-Saxon England, so for at least 1300 years.

This pre-dates the first gold sovereign (1489).

As far as I am aware, the guinea has never been a unit of account. 

Contrary to popular opinion, the guinea was not a 21 shilling coin. When it was first introduced, in 1663, it was a 20 shilling coin. Fluctuations is the gold:silver ratio, or the relative values of gold and silver, meant its value also fluctuated. At one time, a guinea was worth as much as 30 shillings. When guineas were discontinued, and replaced by gold sovereigns, from 1817, a guinea happened to be worth 21 shillings. As part of the "Great Recoinage", and the Coinage Act of 1816, old coins could be exchanged, for a limited period, and the rate for guineas was officially set at 21 shillings. This almost certainly explains why the concept of the guinea as being worth 21 shillings has arisen, and why the popular misconception has persisted until today, and probably will forever.

Chards

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On 30/03/2021 at 15:27, Roy said:

When I travel I always pack a Bible...

but with this I can confidently travel across borders and through customs with any amount of crypto and without declaration or discovery.

Nobody will want to steal, confiscate or seize my Bible and I won't have to pay any duty on it.

:D

You might encounter problems taking it (the bible) into Iran, China, or one of a number of Islamic states, especially any areas controlled or under influence of ISIS, ISIL, etc.

Chards

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Indeed. When I travel to said countries I substitute my Bible with 'Teaching English Abroad' and I'm usually afforded the same courtesy.

Technically, alcohol is a solution..

'It [socialism] poses a growing threat, however unintentional, to the freedom of this country, for there is no freedom where the State totally controls the economy. Personal freedom and economic freedom are indivisible. You can’t have one without the other. You can’t lose one without losing the other.'

"There is no such thing as public money, there is only taxpayers' money"

Let not England forget her precedence of teaching nations how to live.

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1 hour ago, LawrenceChard said:

As part of the "Great Recoinage", and the Coinage Act of 1816, old coins could be exchanged, for a limited period, and the rate for guineas was officially set at 21 shillings. This almost certainly explains why the concept of the guinea as being worth 21 shillings has arisen, and why the popular misconception has persisted until today, and probably will forever.

I believe the guinea was legally set at 21 shillings in 1717, part of Newton's attempts to stabilise the currency. There were some discrepancies between the silver and gold ratio that led to silver being undervalued in GB but gold being overvalued (silver was shipped to the continent in huge quantities and swapped for gold which came to GB to buy yet more silver).

The real rate should have been 21/6d to be ideal but it wasn't a round number, so the silver/gold ratio imbalance persisted right up until the Great Recoinage. The real solution would have been to reduce the weights of the silver coinage, but that was unacceptable to Newton and co. Leaving GB with almost no silver coins in circulation by the 1780s, other than worn blank discs!

Samuel Pepys noted in his diaries that although the new milled gold coins were nominally 20 shillings, they actually traded much like gold does on the markets today, fluctuating in value - as you say, sometimes right up to 30 shillings, which was the going rate around 1694.

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1 hour ago, SidS said:

I believe the guinea was legally set at 21 shillings in 1717, part of Newton's attempts to stabilise the currency. There were some discrepancies between the silver and gold ratio that led to silver being undervalued in GB but gold being overvalued (silver was shipped to the continent in huge quantities and swapped for gold which came to GB to buy yet more silver).

The real rate should have been 21/6d to be ideal but it wasn't a round number, so the silver/gold ratio imbalance persisted right up until the Great Recoinage. The real solution would have been to reduce the weights of the silver coinage, but that was unacceptable to Newton and co. Leaving GB with almost no silver coins in circulation by the 1780s, other than worn blank discs!

Samuel Pepys noted in his diaries that although the new milled gold coins were nominally 20 shillings, they actually traded much like gold does on the markets today, fluctuating in value - as you say, sometimes right up to 30 shillings, which was the going rate around 1694.

Yes, most of that sounds about right.

I tried to avoid going in to too much detail, but there are a few gaps which I covered way back in about 1999/2000, when I created this page:

https://goldsovereigns.co.uk/uniteandguineas.html

from one of our old "heritage" websites.

It also mentions our switch from an effective "silver standard" to the now famous "gold standard".

I avoided mentioning bi-metallism, but whenever two, or more, metals have been used in any monetary system, there was always a problem about the exchange rate between them, and whether it should be fixed or floating. This problem effectively was solved when we switched to using "fiat" coinage and money, but that's a story which could take at least a chapter, possibly an entire book, to explain.

Edited by LawrenceChard
typos

Chards

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What happens if banks swap the cash digits on the balance sheet for the same value in gold on the balance sheet, physical gold? Surely this would affect the price of gold.

Its a class A asset so why hold the digits and not the gold? If they all went for the gold surely the price would increase? 🧐 

Decus et tutamen (an ornament and a safeguard)

YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5OjxoCIsDbMgx7MM_l4CmA

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9 minutes ago, MancunianStacker said:

What happens if banks swap the cash digits on the balance sheet for the same value in gold on the balance sheet, physical gold? Surely this would affect the price of gold.

Its a class A asset so why hold the digits and not the gold? If they all went for the gold surely the price would increase? 🧐 

Very good question and personally, I think it is on the balance sheet already - gold has to cover some global debt but policy and the fact that not all of it is mined is keeping it low.

Why not buy it as low as possible for as long as possible, inflate the markets to take on the debts and when all gold mined, crash the markets and transfer the wealth over to gold?

It's going to be big, very big transfer, I tell ya! 😁

Edited by GoldenGriffin
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Also, I personally believe that the price of gold is affected by the amount of gold that can be owned privately.

Do you remember the RM advertising the auction of a really old sovereign not so long ago, where it was repatriated to the UK and said it can be privately owned?

My observations are telling me that  bullion can't normally be privately owned.

I think the value of gold is partly guided by how much collectable proof, rare and unusual gold is sold.

Imagine 2 bars in a graph one with volume of total gold mined and the other with volume of proof,collectable gold sold.

The proof, collectable gold can't be handed in to governments, so this needs to be taken away from the gold bullion stack, which then needs to cover debts.

I think the amount of collectable gold is limited on purpose.

Edited by GoldenGriffin
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And the fact that any gold jewellery is melted down to make gold bars or coins and knowing that gold is currently being significantly reduced in electronics, tells me something really big is on its way for gold.

We're going to have to all meet up at each others condo when the party begins! 🤣

Edited by GoldenGriffin
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5 minutes ago, GoldenGriffin said:

Another gold advert just came on the radio to sell your unwanted gold jewellery.

Different guy, sounded like he didn't have a gun pointed at him 😅

once the shops reopen soon, keep an eye on for previously closed down small shops reopening as "CASH FOR GOLD" pop up places this year

once you hear them on radio, TV adverts, new shops, newspaper ads  - you know you're in a bull market and its due to go higher (..... at least for a little while ! ) 

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15 minutes ago, Paul said:

once the shops reopen soon, keep an eye on for previously closed down small shops reopening as "CASH FOR GOLD" pop up places this year

once you hear them on radio, TV adverts, new shops, newspaper ads  - you know you're in a bull market and its due to go higher (..... at least for a little while ! ) 

Absolutely and hold your gold, do not sell, keep every f******* piece of sun originating piece of sunshine you can.

Ps yet another radio advert just came on, when will it stop! 😅

Edited by GoldenGriffin
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2 hours ago, LawrenceChard said:

Your blog very often has had some very interesting information;

kudos for the time and effort you put into those updates - I agree with The Royal Mint comments about quality last year in particular.

 

Yes, most of that sounds about right.

I tried to avoid going in to too much detail, but there are a few gaps which I covered way back in about 1999/2000, when I created this page:

https://goldsovereigns.co.uk/uniteandguineas.html

 

 

A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they will never sit in.

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On 08/04/2021 at 21:01, dicker said:

Getting back onto Gold in GBP - what will gold hit if Russia annexes Ukraine?

Russian gunships have been deployed in the Black Sea as well as the troops and heavy armour at the border....

 

I think it might cover a different remit and possibly not affect gold price, or if it does, it might temporarily go up and then drop back down?

 

Edited by GoldenGriffin
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