Gold Monitoring Thread $ (USD) only

[Kman]

On 22/09/2020 at 08:36, Zhorro said:

Generally, people that predict gold price movements are correct half the time.

I think you should be roughly right all of the time

You don't predict what will happen so much as say what could happen after x, y or z happens

Like if gold lost it's $1900 support, which it did, then it should come down and test the $1880 support which it has and that's exactly what @Martlet predicted and it was spot on. It's just being aware of support and resistance levels 

$1900 is a big support to lose, if it can't quickly reestablish above that it's not good a good sign short term for the spot price 

Edited September 23, 2020 by Kman

[Oldun]

Cyclical

[Zhorro]

20 hours ago, Kman said:

I think you should be roughly right all of the time

You don't predict what will happen so much as say what could happen after x, y or z happens

Like if gold lost it's $1900 support, which it did, then it should come down and test the $1880 support which it has and that's exactly what @Martlet predicted and it was spot on. It's just being aware of support and resistance levels 

$1900 is a big support to lose, if it can't quickly reestablish above that it's not good a good sign short term for the spot price 

No stopping at $1880 - we are now at $1856!

So, why are the prices of gold and silver falling?  The standard answer given by commentators is that the Dollar has strengthened.  But does this really account for this week's drops?

We are coming to the end of the month and the end of the quarter.  Therefore it seems likely that there is profit taking and the re-balancing of investment portfolios.  On 1st July (the start of the quarter) gold was at $1,784 (and silver $18.21) per ounce, and so it seems likely that investment managers would want to "lock in" some of the gains since then.  And it does not make sense to leave these adjustments until the very end of the month because these managers know others will be doing it before then. 

So, where does this leave us with the strengthening Dollar?  Has the stronger Dollar really resulted in lower precious metal prices as the commentators seem to claim?  Or has the selling off of precious metals (and sell offs in the stock market) resulted in a greater demand for Dollars?

[Kman]

1 hour ago, Zhorro said:

So, why are the prices of gold and silver falling?

No idea If I'm being honest, your thesis seems plausible

94 is a big level for the dxy, the last time it was dollar 94 was ~ July 24th,  gold, silver, spx etc seem to have fallen back to similar levels as the 24th

It's almost like the past two months didn't happen 

Edited September 24, 2020 by Kman

[dicker]

I think with a strengthening dollars money managers are rebalancing from Gold to USD as a safe haven.  My guess is that they can see more upside in being in USD than Gold.  
 

Best

Dicker

[Kman]

Both gold and silver found support so far at their 100 dma on the daily

What would be satisfying from a technical point of view is if gold comes down to $1750

That would be the bottom of a trend line starting may 2019, a strong horizontal support and the 200 dma (yellow line)

[Martlet]

2 hours ago, dicker said:

I think with a strengthening dollars money managers are rebalancing from Gold to USD as a safe haven.  My guess is that they can see more upside in being in USD than Gold.  
 

Best

Dicker

And just being liquid in this period.  Everyone likes to talk up as yet non-existent inflation, over looking thats a medium-long term risk.  Sensible money might want to sit out a month or so and see what opportunities arise as we go into election and winter. 

[Abyss]

The best way view Gold price in USD separate your long term physical Gold stack and short term speculative investments have in the metal / industry.

Long term physical stack - only use one month chart it removes all the noise happening in the shorter time frames (intraday or daily/weekly charts).

Monthly Gold Price Chart (using trading view (https://in.tradingview.com/) free to register). Every leg higher in the Gold price followed by three months Gold  prices failed to sell below previous bullish candle's body which has lead to the next leg up in price. History repeating itself if by the end of October Gold price cannot penetrate below $1780 or continues to trades above $1850 next leg will take Gold significantly higher USD price.

 

[Kman]

What's the news?

Precious metals and bitcoin seem to like something that's going on 

Maybe it's just the dollar falling back below some important levels, we shall see if it's just spikes or things can hold

 

Edited October 9, 2020 by Kman

[KRO]

hopes of a Democratic clean sweep leading to huge inflationary stimulus come January

[Kman]

Had the highlighted line drawn in previously, replicated it just now a few time and it fits in so beautiful

Creates a much clearer idea of what's going on 

 

[Kman]

2 minutes ago, Kman said:

Had the highlighted line drawn in previously, replicated it just now a few time and it fits in so beautiful

Creates a much clearer idea of what's going on 

 

 

Could add a couple more but these 3 are all you really need

 

[Bumble]

I'm not a big fan of technicals myself, but if I were, we recently had a perfect example of an evening star candlestick pattern, which is supposed to be a bearish signal.

[Divmad]

Now this is what I have a great deal of empathy with:

 

https://twitter.com/Northst18363337/status/1324749717599825921/photo/1

 

 

[RedDragon77]

The DXY to Gold correlation is tracking for sure.

[RedDragon77]

Vaccine progress really slammed the metals down this morning.

[Booky586]

Now that we have a covid-19 vaccine do you think we'll see the end of QE too and another hit coming to PM prices?

Edited November 9, 2020 by Booky586

[RedDragon77]

The realities of production and dissemination are quite a way out still, and the cold weather along with holidays will bring increased cases and more lockdowns.

I expect QE to continue but can't predict PM price action.

[Kman]

Nothing definitive but interesting to take note of

Looking at simple moving averages the 100 day has crossed over the 50, not a positive sign

Price has been stuck under the 50 other than the break above around the election

The chart for silver is looking very much the same

 

[HerefordBullyun]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dow-tops-30k-after-13-trillion-global-liquidity-added

 

14Trn to get to 30000 points. I wonder what percentage was used to spoof gold and short it?

[DarkChameleon]

On 20/11/2020 at 19:02, Kman said:

Nothing definitive but interesting to take note of

Looking at simple moving averages the 100 day has crossed over the 50, not a positive sign

Price has been stuck under the 50 other than the break above around the election

The chart for silver is looking very much the same

 

The difference between a balloon inspired market and a reality inspired market, true market up pms down, when both are growing its usually dollar down...now they putting adults in charge like yellen then the market worries less, if it had been Warren the market would have plummeted and pms follow suit.

[HerefordBullyun]

8 hours ago, DarkChameleon said:

The difference between a balloon inspired market and a reality inspired market, true market up pms down, when both are growing its usually dollar down...now they putting adults in charge like yellen then the market worries less, if it had been Warren the market would have plummeted and pms follow suit.

Yellen is a dithering dovish clown. If she were in Hank Paulson's shoes when the crash happened the whole world economy would of crashed.

Mark my words she is no safe pair of hands. More money will be spent in bidens tenure at record breaking levels. Let's see how that pans out....

[Abyss]

Despite short term bearish price action I am still bullish on a long term basis. Impulsive move started in March low $1458 to $2089 August. A 50-60% retracement bring the price between $1700-$1775 such move should take out all the weak hands and the longer it takes retrace/price to settle should build base for the next impulsive move up higher.

Gold monthly chart below and I still targeting $2300 Gold price in the next few years.

[h103efa]

Agree with you @Abyss i'm looking for some price action around the 1725-1750 area. Quite a bit of confluence, support & resitance zones, Weekly 50 EMA, Daily 365 EMA & 38.2 fibo (1160 low Aug 18 -> 2075 high Aug 20)

[dicker]

Interestingly SocGen see gold prices at USD2340 in H1 next year.  Other banks seem conflicted with WestPac seeing Gold at around USD1650 

No one knows...no one.