Gold Monitoring Thread $ (USD) only

[Bumble]

On Sunday, there was a large sale of gold which took the price down to $1800 temporarily, taking advantage of the illiquidity while the markets were closed. Another happened first thing Tuesday, before Comex open, again taking the price down to $1800. Both times the price fall did not stick and gold recovered to close up. This kind of movement is usually bullish. It either indicates a failed attempt to drive the price down, or a successful attempt to get the price down temporarily to wash out weak hands and remove stop loss positions.

[Martlet]

Looking at the tea leafs, noted the 0.768 fib at ~$1757 seemed to offer last resistance during the past week was a hard ceiling today.  That cant be good. 

Edited March 1, 2021 by Martlet

[Bumble]

I'm not usually a big fan of drawing lines on charts. I've tried to understand technical analysis, but it looks pretty wooly to me. I do believe in the bubble curve, and the gold price peak in 2011 was a classic example of the bubble curve in action. So, just for the sake of a pessimistic assessment of gold's prospects, I made the chart below on the basis of the conjecture that 2020 was also a bubble. So what would happen if we have a long term uptrend, starting from 2000-2002, and a bubble in 2020 which pops this year? The two blue lines show possible upward trend lines. The two magenta lines show possible trajectories for gold, one on the basis that the bubble is popping straight down, the other on the basis that bubbles usually have a second smaller peak. The result is that we could see gold fall to $1400 to $1600 by the end of 2021. As I say, bear in mind this is a pessimistic view, which assumes that 2020 was just a bubble, so it might be regarded as a worst case.

[Abyss]

Monthly chart Gold. I am expecting Gold hit $1650 don't see Gold trading back to $1560 or $1360 level. I am expecting Gold to build a base in the highlighted yellow area and then prices to move higher.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuFxvOjwRqk

Gold Price Update - March 4, 2021 + Rising Bond Yields... Sell Gold.... iGold Advisor

Gold price is correctively moving lower rather than impulsively (need to watch YouTube video to ascertain the difference).

[MancunianStacker]

Waiting for Wonger to turn up shortly....

[HerefordBullyun]

1 minute ago, MancunianStacker said:

Waiting for Wonger to turn up shortly....

Hes too busy shorting and making loans on his winnings at an of APR 892347293478049387%

[Kman]

1 hour ago, Bumble said:

So what would happen if we have a long term uptrend, starting from 2000-2002

This is my long term picture

Your first line should almost always be under everything (2020 March be an example of a time not) if it's truly a line of support

Then you want price to bounce off it multiple times to confirm it 

Then if you can paste it in above and it fits it's usually right 

[Minimalist]

Priced in world currency units, gold is trading at exactly the same price as it was before covid.

Despite a 70% increase in money supply, gold hasnt moved.

[HerefordBullyun]

6 hours ago, Minimalist said:

Priced in world currency units, gold is trading at exactly the same price as it was before covid.

Despite a 70% increase in money supply, gold hasnt moved.

Thats a really interesting observation Minimalist, gold will continue to bottom out for a bit then it can see it flying, espically with miners.  

[Minimalist]

6 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Thats a really interesting observation Minimalist, gold will continue to bottom out for a bit then it can see it flying, espically with miners.  

Correct. This is the metals decade. We have seen nothing yet.

[Bumble]

This is how I see the current state of affairs. The market does not want to buy low-yielding US government bonds, and the last bond auction was poorly covered. Bonds have sold off, and as a result yields are rising. The official line from the Fed is that this doesn't matter: rising yields are what one can expect during an economic recovery, so they are not going to act to suppress them.

But this position is disingenuous. Rates aren't rising because of a huge demand for capital from businesses; they are rising because of a shortage of supply from lenders willing to accept 0.5%. The US government is planning to spend $4 trillion or more on stimulus expenditure, green projects and assorted bail-outs. There won't be sufficient capital to supply this debt at current interest rates. If it is put up for auction, the market will want at least 1.5% and maybe even 2% interest, to cover the risk of inflation. The US government is already in a position in which interest payments, military expenditure and welfare payments alone account for considerably more than its entire tax revenue. It simply cannot afford higher interest rates.

So, the Fed is playing chicken with the market. Either the market will back down and take the debt at 0.5%, or the Fed will back down and buy the debt itself, effectively directly monetising the government's expenditure. My money is on the latter. When this happens, nominal interest rates will fall, inflation will rise, and real interest rates will move considerably negative, maybe as much as -4%. Real interest rates are the quantity most closely (inversely) correlated with the gold price.  Currently, real rates are rising and gold is falling, but this will have to reverse in the not too distant future. The main question is when - will it be this year or next - and a secondary question is how much of gold's lunch will be eaten by cryptos.

[HerefordBullyun]

Wait till they start with YCC then gold will be out the gates. I think it will happen this year.

[5huggy]

seems to be "waking up" - probably with respect to $1.9 trillion injection! 

[TommyTwoShots]

Wait or buy more now? Asking for a friend who has about 10K to invest.

Edited March 10, 2021 by TommyTwoShots

[MancunianStacker]

19 minutes ago, TommyTwoShots said:

Wait or buy more now? Asking for a friend who has about 10K to invest.

Rather than invest £10k maybe invest £5k now. Then invest more as time goes by??? Impossible to advise on as nobody knows the future or they’d be billionaires. 

[TommyTwoShots]

5 minutes ago, MancunianStacker said:

Rather than invest £10k maybe invest £5k now. Then invest more as time goes by??? Impossible to advise on as nobody knows the future or they’d be billionaires. 

Yer I told her to buy little and often. It’s hard though as prices have fallen and gold is tempting.

[5huggy]

14 minutes ago, MancunianStacker said:

Rather than invest £10k maybe invest £5k now. Then invest more as time goes by??? Impossible to advise on as nobody knows the future or they’d be billionaires. 

QUITE right! - POUND COST averaging! 👌😉

[5huggy]

Reuters - - UPDATE 1-Asia Gold-More takers as prices dip, Indian premiums rise

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N2LA149

[5huggy]

OK  - so the "FED" has got some waffle to come out tomorrow and their own peeps think !?

[HerefordBullyun]

1 minute ago, 5huggy said:

OK  - so the "FED" has got some waffle to come out tomorrow and their own peeps think !?

FOMC meeting minutes was kind to silver and gold!

[HelpingHands]

 

 

[Martlet]

Important break above this price ~1755-1765, after the double bottom.  Floundering a bit this evening though. 

[Bumble]

At $1760, it's hit the upper Bollinger band, which might provide some resistance. It does look like an uptrend though.

[HelpingHands]

[Bumble]

From www.321gold.com. Gold retraced nearly 50% in the middle of the 1970s bull market. It did the same in 2015. If the pattern is similar, there is still plenty of room for a further run.