Gold Monitoring Thread $ (USD) only

[dicker]

Here is a reasonable article on dollar weakness, that I think will help Gold and why the weakness may continue.

But like all of this type of articles, treat with caution!

Best

Dicker

[dicker]

Something that I have not looked at for a while is GVX - Gold volatility index.  Has risen as Gold price has risen. Not sure it this is simply a product of ramped Gold prices or if this indicates price swings are more likely.  
 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^GVZ?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20vc2VhcmNoP3E9Z3Z6K3ZvbGF0aWxpdHkmZm9ybT1BUElQSDEmUEM9QVBQTA&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHfg83e1fzQ4CkAFq98Yk5epnGmxbtFfMc0FmaPpayuc_ksFelwurLocmfsN-ZIlmiUYMr150LUJVLJzc9DyFwqcNtglt8-b1M84FqDFfCaWeWZFuRao0L8DLNQ-oRxUEfKljF7-7442lZx8y2cqdBgu7Z3DooW7mfzOVA_RWwiS

[Kman]

An interesting thing to look at is 2011

After gold touched $1900 for the first time there was a sell off down to $1700 in two days 

My guess it is wont be nearly as severe but  lower $1800s seems possible, my mouth is watering at a leveraged buy around there, I have my fingers firmly crossed this will happen 

It's annoying because in my swing trading thread I did buy at $1797 before this massive move up but I sold way too quickly at $1810, took crumbs when I should have been having steak, got complacent because it kept getting rejected there 

 

[mr-dead]

[Kman]

Golds going strong in the first 20 minutes getting up to $1910, could be headed for an all time high today

I'm not actually sure what the all time high is? I googled and it says $1920 some places & $1921 another 

 

[dicker]

Odd that - I always had it in my mind as 1917

[Kman]

Just now, dicker said:

Odd that - I always had it in my mind as 1917

Looking back on a tradeingview chart I believe it's $1922.25 

Chards say it's $1917 intraday 

[dicker]

Thanks, not far away now

[DarkChameleon]

$1920 crossed.

Edited July 27, 2020 by DarkChameleon

[DarkChameleon]

Got my 80-1 ratio bang on, now nees it to kick its aay to 75 before the push back.

[Kman]

Reached $1944 absolutely smashed the record with ease wow

Silver and bitcoin also flying, what a start to the week

I'm not sure exactly where it is I'm not a too familiar with forex but I think the dollar has either broken or is very very close to breaking a 2011 trend line which is huge, very weak 

[MancunianStacker]

More stimulus being announced today??? 

[MancunianStacker]

[maminzlaten]

i see the helicopters are ready for another round

it's funny that the USA are paving the way in this

in my country they only offer 0% interest "covid" credits, but you actually have to fulfill some requirements

next stop: 3000

[MancunianStacker]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/senates-new-1200-stimulus-check-reveal-for-monday-everything-we-know/

[Kman]

It all looks down to the dollar in the short term

Just from what I'm roughly observing atm (I might be way off) it seems like for every 1% the dollar falls gold goes up around 4x and silver 10x

I'm not sure what will happen with the dollar next I'm going to try and learn more about it but one scenario that seems possible is that we will see a 2% bounce up soon before it continues down

2% bounce could mean gold down 8% and silver down 20%

That would be $1800 ish gold and $20 silver 

Looking what happened in 2011 gold high you couldn't say a weak dollar lifted gold up to $1900 but you could say dollar strength took it down to $1528 bottom

8% dollar rise - 20% gold drop

Edited July 27, 2020 by Kman

[BobnotTed]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price

We have had two similar spikes over the last 12 months and both ended up at a price ~$100 lower than where the spike started. Which would bring us back to ~1710. (I'm not saying that's going to happen though)

[DarkChameleon]

Ok, you two are in time out for being debbie downers...i think gold will hit $2.000 / oz before the end of august...and silver will cross $30 by then too....see, i have no charts and nothing more then watching the news and having my goldprice website but hey, i was right about 80-1 ratio so im going to try another bet, put my $5 on this rising for a while yet, till oil goes over $60 a barrel and the national stockpiles of countries oil supply drops to 80% 

[KRO]

usually in these rallies Gold gets overbought before correcting

I think it may quickly top $2000, before correcting 5-10%

[DarkChameleon]

just crossed $1950

 

China will decide if it comes down or crosses $2000 tonight...they have a 4 hour window of manipulation to do what they want, buy or sell.

Edited July 28, 2020 by DarkChameleon

[DarkChameleon]

21 hours ago, DarkChameleon said:

Got my 80-1 ratio bang on, now nees it to kick its aay to 75 before the push back.

Well it looks like im going to be two for two, my new record...lol...now im thinking $2000 by the end of the week.

[dicker]

Interesting that a number of banks are predicting Gold hitting USD2k shortly.  The media variously agreeing, but not sure they really describe all of the drivers for the price increases well. There is a perfect storm for Gold prices at the moment;

US China relations

QE

 Bad numbers from the US economy

Covid - particularly in the US

As these drivers dissipate, Gold in USD may well fall back for a while is my guess.
 

QE however is not going away... 

[dicker]

I forgot to mention that governments need inflation, and I think they are going out to get it which will of course support Gold in all currencies

[DarkChameleon]

8 hours ago, dicker said:

Interesting that a number of banks are predicting Gold hitting USD2k shortly.  The media variously agreeing, but not sure they really describe all of the drivers for the price increases well. There is a perfect storm for Gold prices at the moment;

US China relations

QE

 Bad numbers from the US economy

Covid - particularly in the US

As these drivers dissipate, Gold in USD may well fall back for a while is my guess.
 

QE however is not going away... 

Greed, thats what theyre thinking, maybe motivate people to buy gold with their stimulous money...boy that would send a shock through the system, no shopping but stashing....the dollar would plummet.

Edited July 28, 2020 by DarkChameleon

[KRO]

seems to be building a first support level around $1933