Gold Monitoring Thread $ (USD) only

[Martlet]

Bank minutes are a curious thing, they spook/spike markets yet are old news of policy decisions taken and enacted a few weeks before. 

[Oldun]

On 18/08/2020 at 16:02, vand said:

Price action suggests a very real chance we will move above the recent high rather than go below the recent low. With gold at $2000 right now I think it’s a coin flip whether we see $2200 or $1800 first.

$1800 first possibly 1750s in the back end of this month imho.

Edited August 20, 2020 by Oldun

[Kman]

Are metals forming bull flags ready to break out to the upside? 

This looks positive to me - maybe they're just waiting for the dollar to stop pretending it's going up 

[KDave]

Chris A reckons $2400 before year end, then back to $2000, he is rarely wrong and has historical symmetry to back him up, it is very convincing. 

I don't know enough about it but those are nice triangles which I remember are funny things, if descending triangle its bearish, if symmetric or ascending its bullish, hard to tell until it completes.

 

[KRO]

you're. right @Kman, no need for charts, the astrologer says so 😀

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/wall-street-astrologer-trump-win-gold-rally

 

[KDave]

Just now, KRO said:

you're. right @Kman, no need for charts, the astrologer says so 😀

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/wall-street-astrologer-trump-win-gold-rally

 

Last time he won in 2016 gold crashed 

[Kman]

3 minutes ago, KDave said:

I don't know enough about it but those are nice triangles which I remember are funny things, if descending triangle its bearish, if symmetric or ascending its bullish, hard to tell until it completes.

I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think the shape of the flag part itself dictates that, the shape is only really important for recognising when it's breaking out

It's just whether the "pole" of the flag was up or down makes it a bear or bull flag

Not 100% this is accurate though

[HawkHybrid]

50 minutes ago, KDave said:

I don't know enough about it but those are nice triangles which I remember are funny things, if descending triangle its bearish, if symmetric or ascending its bullish, hard to tell until it completes.

 

all true triangles are signs of a coming trend reversal.

 

HH

[KDave]

1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

all true triangles are signs of a coming trend reversal.

 

HH

Bearish then for gold?

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, KDave said:

Bearish then for gold?

 

it's a bit hard to call it a triangle considering there is only a top, a pullback and then something

that might not be finished. the palladium chart looks more defined and could possibly play out

as a triangle.

 

HH

Edited August 20, 2020 by HawkHybrid

[Kman]

Dollar looks like it's going to come up and test some resistances in the next week

If it fails at 94 then we shouldn't see too much of a fall off for pms

If it gets past 94 and up to the ones at  95 and 96 which would probably play out over weeks instead then yes everyone saying $1700 will probably be right

My guess is 94 holding as resistance, dollar starting a new leg down, PMs starting a new leg up

[BobnotTed]

2 hours ago, Kman said:

Dollar looks like it's going to come up and test some resistances in the next week

If it fails at 94 then we shouldn't see too much of a fall off for pms

If it gets past 94 and up to the ones at  95 and 96 which would probably play out over weeks instead then yes everyone saying $1700 will probably be right

My guess is 94 holding as resistance, dollar starting a new leg down, PMs starting a new leg up

Kman, I don't have a financial trading background, so I'm wondering what the 94, 95, 96 is you're referring to. Would you have a link to a live chart which shows where the USD is now in relation to these figures? Thanks.

[Kman]

10 minutes ago, BobnotTed said:

Kman, I don't have a financial trading background, so I'm wondering what the 94, 95, 96 is you're referring to. Would you have a link to a live chart which shows where the USD is now in relation to these figures? Thanks.

https://uk.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/

Number at the top and basic chart, can click on full featured chart to see more

I believe the number is derived from the dollars strength relative to a basket of other currencies

 

[RedDragon77]

Hopefully gold is consolidating gains and will make a renewed push upwards.

[Kman]

If you had to guess where the dollar is going in the next 24 hours

This kind of move can bring gold down -2-3% and silver -5-6% 

[HawkHybrid]

21 minutes ago, Kman said:

If you had to guess where the dollar is going in the next 24 hours

This kind of move can bring gold down -2-3% and silver -5-6% 

 

you are jumping the gun.

the way I see it, dollar is more likely to get range bound 93.2-92.6(doji) over the next few days.

also the dollar is not the determining factor for the price of gold. the 'dollar goes up and gold

goes down, because gold is priced in dollars' theory is too simplistic and doesn't work. almost

every commodity is priced in dollar and no they all don't go up and down in unison when the

dollar moves(in recent years, palladium is a good example for this).

 

HH

Edited August 24, 2020 by HawkHybrid

[Kman]

2 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

also the dollar is not the determining factor for the price of gold. the 'dollar goes up and gold

goes down, because gold is priced in dollars' theory is too simplistic and doesn't work. almost

 

I've been watching gold vs the dollar everyday there's an undeniable correlation currently

This is dxy and gold overlayed since July

This is today just today, simplistic? yes, also undeniable

 

[HawkHybrid]

33 minutes ago, Kman said:

I've been watching gold vs the dollar everyday there's an undeniable correlation currently

This is dxy and gold overlayed since July

This is today just today, simplistic? yes, also undeniable

 

 

take the chart data from the 21 july -  17 august what do you get?

it's only correlated if you've already defined it as correlated?

(also 12-19 july. gold moves horizontal as dollar goes down)

 

HH

Edited August 24, 2020 by HawkHybrid

[Kman]

10 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

take the chart data from the 21 july -  17 august what do you get?

it's only correlated if you've already defined it as correlated

HH

That time period is on the chart and it shows exactly what I'm saying?

I can't be bothered to argue whether reality is real

The chart shows it, if you want to deny it go ahead

[HerefordBullyun]

Mainstream stocks are are rallying due usa approve covid treatment I'd expect a gold squeeze here.

[HawkHybrid]

2 hours ago, Kman said:

That time period is on the chart and it shows exactly what I'm saying?

I can't be bothered to argue whether reality is real

The chart shows it, if you want to deny it go ahead

 

look at 12-19 july, gold goes horizontal while the dollar drops. how do you explain that?

you can always cherry pick data to fit a bias. the reality is that it's not simple like that.

the charts are fluid and trying to make sense of them is an ever ongoing process.

if your narrative doesn't fit the charts, it's not the charts that needs to change.

 

HH

[Kman]

14 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

look at 12-19 july, gold goes horizontal while the dollar drops. how do you explain that?

First of all 12th was a Sunday and 18th and 19th were Saturday and Sunday

Second of all dollar went down ~0.75%

Gold went up 0.71% - that was a total nothing week?

 

Quote

you can always cherry pick data to fit a bias. the reality is that it's not simple like that.

I used two months of data and you used a week that nothing happened I guess to waste my time? I'm not sure

Again you're ignoring reality I wont reply again because I can't be bothered to argue what's real and what's not real with you, it doesn't take a genius to see the correlation of chart

 

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, Kman said:

I used two months of data and you used a week that nothing happened I guess to waste my time? I'm not sure

Again you're ignoring reality I wont reply again because I can't be bothered to argue what's real and what's not real with you, it doesn't take a genius to see the correlation of chart

you do technical analysis, gold was moving horizontal (indecisive highs and lows)

over the same time period the dollar was obviously in a down trend(lower highs, lower lows).

there is a clear difference in trend(they are doing their own thing).

(the chart is unclear so my dates are a bit off, this doesn't change the trend).

 

how about feb 2018 - feb 2020, dollar goes up over 6%(sizeable move). over the same time period

gold goes up(not down) 7%. over a 2 year time frame gold went in the same direction as the dollar.

how do you explain that? so much for the dollar going up means gold dropping?

 

the narrative is wrong?

there are obviously periods of time eg 2002-2011 where a falling dollar corresponds with a rising

gold price. the problem is it's subjective. everything is so obvious when given hindsight. when you

are in the mixed of is a rising dollar signifying a falling gold price(2002-2011) or is a rising dollar

signifying a rising gold price(feb 2018-feb 2020). (if you already knew the answer then you wouldn't

need to bother with the charts in the first place).

the truth is a rising dollar provides no insight when used to help trade gold.

 

HH

 

Edited August 24, 2020 by HawkHybrid

[Kman]

7 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

the truth is a rising dollar provides no insight when used to help trade gold.

HH

Dollar rises from inflation or deflation?

Commodities rise from inflation or deflation?

Chart shows clear DXY up Gold down

Is it a hard and fast always rule, no of course not, are they currently strongly intertwined, yes

Please stop talking like you know what you're talking about when you clearly don't I could have picked holes in practically everything you said in your post but don't have the will

It's ok to be wrong, you don't have to dig yourself deeper

 

[sixgun]

The USD value in say the dollar index is its relative value to a basket of other currencies - it is not a measure of purchasing value, just a relative value compared to the basket of currencies.

Commodities are judged by how much fiat is needed to buy a measured amount of whatever it is. 
The dollar may go up in value compared with the basket of currencies but purchasing power of the basket is racing down to zero. So despite the dollar index rising the dollar's purchasing power falls - so in a fair market, the DXY can rise but the price of gold in dollars also rise. 
We might have a disastrous economic situation with runaway inflation in all currencies - there is a flight to the dollar, the dollar soars but gold can sit go up against the dollar.  

Edited August 24, 2020 by sixgun