Gold Monitoring Thread $ (USD) only

[Kman]

29 minutes ago, sixgun said:

The USD value in say the dollar index is its relative value to a basket of other currencies - it is not a measure of purchasing value, just a relative value compared to the basket of currencies.

Commodities are judged by how much fiat is needed to buy a measured amount of whatever it is. 
The dollar may go up in value compared with the basket of currencies but purchasing power of the basket is racing down to zero. So despite the dollar index rising the dollar's purchasing power falls - so in a fair market, the DXY can rise but the price of gold in dollars also rise. 
We might have a disastrous economic situation with runaway inflation in all currencies - there is a flight to the dollar, the dollar soars but gold can sit go up against the dollar.  

Yes i looked this up the other day

The DXY is about 57% Euro 13% yen and 12% GBP then the rest,  so pretty much it's dollar vs euro

If the euro starts to fail and everyone runs to dollars then there wont be enough dollars and it will cause deflation

Debts need to be paid in dollars so money will be sucked out of other things, including commodities thus lowering prices

Yes the dollar can rise with gold but also not really, not in the broader strokes

This is the dollar(red) and gold(blue) since 2000 with gold flipped vertically to better show their relation and how they move together as opposites (but as gold is flipped vertically in this image the same)

It's just undeniable?

 

2000-11 dollar down gold up

11-16 dollar up gold down

16-20 fairly sideways, 19' up for gold but maybe it was in relation to the US/China trade war tensions

2020 dollar down gold up

Edited August 24, 2020 by Kman

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, Kman said:

Chart shows clear DXY up Gold down

Is it a hard and fast always rule, no of course not, are they currently strongly intertwined, yes

 

from feb 2018 to present:

dollar rises from 90 to 93

gold rises from $1400 to 1900

(I'm rounding my numbers)

are they currently strongly intertwined?

1 hour ago, Kman said:

It's ok to be wrong

maybe it's you who should consider admitting being wrong?

we are currently in no mans land?

 

HH

Edited August 24, 2020 by HawkHybrid

[Kman]

1 minute ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

from feb 2018 to present:

dollar rises from 90 to 93

gold rises from $1400 to 1900

(I'm rounding my numbers)

are they currently strongly intertwined?

maybe it's you who should consider admit being wrong?

 

HH

Yes the dollar went sideways

How was 2018 for stocks?

Gold and the dollar aren't isolate together and the only thing that can move gold is the dollar

You seem like you've read some stuff but you're only capable of repeating it and unable to apply it or look past it to reality 

[Kman]

6 hours ago, Kman said:

If you had to guess where the dollar is going in the next 24 hours

This kind of move can bring gold down -2-3% and silver -5-6% 

What's been happening looks familiar hmm, who could have guessed?

Gold was down 2% hmmm but of course no relation, so I must have just been pulling it out of my **** 

Strange hey @HawkHybrid

[HawkHybrid]

4 minutes ago, Kman said:

but you're only capable of repeating it and unable to apply it or look past it to reality

 

the reality is there is nothing to add. the conclusion is that the data is inconclusive.

we can all make guesses but none of it will have the backing of data. we are in a time

of uncertainty. remember for many of those youtube 'gurus' saying that they simply

don't really have a way of telling what is likely to happen next is not really an option.

 

'he will win who knows when to fight and when to not fight' sun tzu.

 

HH

[HawkHybrid]

6 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

93.2

@Kman

what a coincidence?

 

HH

Edited August 24, 2020 by HawkHybrid

[Kman]

2 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

@Kman

what a coincidence?

 

HH

And how did it effect the price of gold?

Open your peepers and look at the charts, it's all there

[HawkHybrid]

1 minute ago, Kman said:

And how did it effect the price of gold?

Open your peepers and look at the charts, it's all there

 

I flip a coin and call heads. it goes heads. what does that means? absolutely nothing.

people don't trade on a coin toss(gamblers gamble on coin tosses).

what I said was there is not enough data to suggest gold will currently move opposite to the dollar.

(which is still true)

you can make guesses all you want, currently none of it is backed by conclusive data.

guessing correctly means nothing as you can't make a trade plan from guessing.

 

HH

[Kman]

US government bonds are up quite a bit, not sure if/how that will effect PMs or stocks

Jerome Powell is set to give a speech Thursday

According to CNBC

• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak Thursday during a virtual version of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, conference.
• He is expected to outline what could be the central bank’s most active efforts ever to spur inflation back to a healthy level.
• “Average inflation” targeting means the Fed will allow inflation to run higher than normal for a period of time.
• The effort will be the reverse of former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker’s rate hikes instituted to quash inflation in the 1980s.

It will probably be lot of hot air but it's bound to spike some stuff one way or the other temporarily

I was bullish but gold and silver look on the edge of a cliff about to slope off instead of burst upwards 

 

[Bratnia]

If inflation is permitted to run higher and nominal yields remain low, wouldn't you expect a increase in negative real yields to be upside pressure for the price of gold?

[vand]

When traders point out how correlated gold and Yen seem to be, I always sigh. Of course they are.. currencies are pairs trades, short one/long the other.

When one currency is going down that tends to mean its going down against everything else.

Gold/USD is partly a currency trade, and so the negative relationship is generally true, but like other currency pairs, and there can be periods were both trend together, just as USD and GBP can both get weaker against other major currencies.

JPY/USD has about -0.9 correlated to Gold/USD
AUD/USD has about -0.8 correlation to Gold/USD

 

[Kman]

Another interesting thing I didn't realise was Bitcoin also broke out to the upside the same time gold and silver did ~ 20th July, that's when the dollar slumped

Was it related to the stimulus checks ending in the US?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/20/unemployment-stimulus-checks-what-to-expect-as-relief-measures-end.html

If it was that, that's a strange one no? because that was going directly to the consumer to spend be should be inflationary, so shouldn't the dollar rise when it's announced to be stopping not drop?

What would a new round of stimulus checks or UBI do for the dollar in the short term? 

 I can't help but feel there are big clues with whats about to happen next to play out the year but whether it's looking at bonds, the Fed bank sheet, loans, stimulus policies etc I'm not sure

Feels like one giant puzzle and trying to get the pieces in place to see the clear picture 

 

Edited August 26, 2020 by Kman

[KRO]

China puts a rocket under the Gold price, quite literally 

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-08-26/Investors-jump-into-gold-price-up-1-as-tensions-between-China-and-U-S-increase.html

 

[Bratnia]

Gold is a currency, and a commodity. In times of fear investors will flight into the US$, if the US$ looks fearful or paying a negative real return they'll opt for gold. If things are calm investors will look for 'better value' elsewhere. Gold price is a compound of currency/commodity/greed-fear factors. Those factors induce considerable volatility, such as in the past being able to buy the Dow with a little over 1 ounce of gold, and at other times it taking over 40 ounces. Similar for houses (UK at times has seen 70 ounces buy the average house, other times its taken 700 ounces). Neither of those are presently anywhere near either their historic lows or highs, so gold could equally be half its current price in a years time as might it have doubled in price.

[5huggy]

21:20 BST - - - > >

[Kman]

I just posted a spx comparison in the stocks thread but I think gold needs it too

This is: Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Large and Middle-Market Firms 

+ gold over it

I think we're where I circled in 2008, ready for a large pullback but with a long stretch up ahead

 

 

Edited August 27, 2020 by Kman

[5huggy]

AND NEXT! 😉

[Bumble]

Usually, it is the last Friday of the month, especially an even-numbered month, when you get big traders driving the price around to get their contracts and options into the money. This month, futures expiry was today, 27th August. Usually the price is driven down to a minimum at 4 p.m. London time (11 a.m. NY time) to coincide with the London fix. Interestingly, today there seemed to be an attempt to drive the price up, which was interrupted and followed by a sharp drive down. Commentators are saying that the moves are down to responses to Jay  Powell's speech, but to be honest, his speech was a nothing burger - there was no new announcement, just the promise that the Fed will try to cause price inflation, which they've said before. I think we are seeing the same old manipulation of the price. Disappointingly, the price did not recover after 4 p.m. London time, which would have been a bullish signal. Tomorrow, Friday 28th, is options expiry day, so there may be some more shennigans tomorrow.

[Oldun]

I think this is where a drift down begins over the next couple of months. I cant see au being allowed to rise into an election imho. I could easily envisage a $200 drift lower to @ $1750 from here before the next assault upwards.

[Martlet]

If current level doesnt hold, next stop around 1895.

[Bumble]

A recent story that was reported on Kitko and some other sites is that the Ohio Police and Fire pension fund approved an allocation of 5% of its $16 billion fund to gold, on advice from Wilshire Associates. They did not set a deadline for accomplishing this, and it will be financed by increasing borrowings rather than by selling other assets. This is a small enough quantity on its own, only about 12 tonnes, but it may well set a precedent. A lot of pension fund managers are cautious and don't want to invest in anything that isn't mainstream, but if they see state funds buying gold, and if it is being recommended by huge investment managers like Wilshire, who have $8 trillion assets under management, then they may decide to follow suit.

It is doubtful to what extent this could be scaled up, but according to an OECD report, The USA has nearly $19 trillion invested in pension funds, 5% of which would equate to about 15,000 tonnes of gold at current prices. Worldwide, those figures are $32 trillion and 26,000 tonnes. It is of course practically impossible for anyone to acquire gold on that scale.

[sixgun]

Rigging price was just a conspiracy theory the wack jobs held...

 

[Oldun]

On 29/08/2020 at 05:12, Oldun said:

I think this is where a drift down begins over the next couple of months. I cant see au being allowed to rise into an election imho. I could easily envisage a $200 drift lower to @ $1750 from here before the next assault upwards.

My target is still valid and I still stand by it.

[Martlet]

Sitting around support line, next stop down ~1880.  

[Zhorro]

Generally, people that predict gold price movements are correct half the time.