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Bumble

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About Bumble

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  1. It does look like April to April, so the gains are particularly large. Given that the oil price went negative last year, any gain is going to be large.
  2. I'm still holding I3E.L and RECO.V. Stimulus spending should be good for metals and oil.
  3. I don't own anything in the uranium space at the moment. If I wanted to, I'd probably buy some GCL.L. I think we'll see a recovery in precious metals before we see uranium take off. Also, bear in mind that in recent years some big uranium producers have cut production and closed mines in response to low prices. If demand picks up, it should be fairly easy for them to bring production back on stream.
  4. An interesting story broke on Friday. It was reported on Forexlive and on Zero Hedge. A hedge fund called Archegos took a highly leveraged position in a number of stocks. The position went sour and they got a margin call, forcing them to liquidate billions of dollars of stock in a few hours. This caused a big fall in Discovery, Inc. (DISCA), Viacom CBS Inc. (VIAC) and several Chinese stocks. Nomura Holdings, Inc. (8604.T) has also fallen sharply, indicating that they might be the broker and may be on the hook for losses if Archegos goes bust. There could be further repercussions.
  5. Following up my comment from a few days ago, it is worth checking out I3 Energy (I3E on London, ITE on Toronto). This company has big plans, has been buying up cheap assets in Canada, has recently dual-listed on Toronto, and should start to get a lot more attention. Here is a link to some research on the company by Dr Jim Jones.
  6. I'm cautious on oil, but I do see it holding up for at least another year. It will take several years for battery vehicles to make serious inroads into fuel demand. I don't own any of the big boys. Currently I have Reconnaissance Energy Africa (RECO.V), Diversified Gas and Oil (DGOC.L) and I3 Energy (I3E.L). RECO is an interesting play in Namibia with good prospects. DGOC pays a huge dividend. I3E is tiny but looks undervalued.
  7. This is how I see the current state of affairs. The market does not want to buy low-yielding US government bonds, and the last bond auction was poorly covered. Bonds have sold off, and as a result yields are rising. The official line from the Fed is that this doesn't matter: rising yields are what one can expect during an economic recovery, so they are not going to act to suppress them. But this position is disingenuous. Rates aren't rising because of a huge demand for capital from businesses; they are rising because of a shortage of supply from lenders willing to accept 0.5%. The US gove
  8. I'm not usually a big fan of drawing lines on charts. I've tried to understand technical analysis, but it looks pretty wooly to me. I do believe in the bubble curve, and the gold price peak in 2011 was a classic example of the bubble curve in action. So, just for the sake of a pessimistic assessment of gold's prospects, I made the chart below on the basis of the conjecture that 2020 was also a bubble. So what would happen if we have a long term uptrend, starting from 2000-2002, and a bubble in 2020 which pops this year? The two blue lines show possible upward trend lines. The two magenta lines
  9. @Kman I wasn't all that impressed with the article you linked. He explains that the sell-off in US government bonds is not all that large, or all that unusual. But there is no explanation of why everything is selling off: stocks, gold, crypto. Normally when bonds sell off, it is because the market is going risk-on and buying stocks instead. This looks more like a panic sell. Having said that, we are in the last Friday of an even-numbered month, and this is usually when futures contracts and options expire, so we may just be seeing a temporary fall to get contracts into the money.
  10. According to some commentators I follow, the market jitters at the moment are a combination of two things. One is that until recently everybody has been fully long and optimistic, so there is little room for upside. The other is that there is little demand for US government bonds from foreign investors. The latter has resulted in little interest in a recent auction of new bonds, and a sell-off in bonds that has pushed the price down and hence the yield up. The curious thing is that the money that has come from selling bonds has not gone into other assets. Stocks are down, gold is down, cr
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