Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[Minimalist]

Real wages arent keeping up with the true inflation rate. Workers throughout the country would need a 20% wage rise YoY just to match it. Its impossible to keep up with it unless you own a bank or oil or gold companies. With the housing crisis getting worse every year its going to isolate and almost remove unborn generations into getting onto the property ladder. I mean I really dont get this when that will force renters into claiming private-rent benefit (LHA) and Housing benefit, which is even more spending from the Gov't. While at the same time Silver and Gold are being hammered down.

Whats the point? Our wealth is being evaporated or isolated while we get Silver and Gold on the cheap until this system explodes.

Its undercut wages to buy metals on the discount.

Tell you what we are skint and bankrupt beyond belief. I just looked at the BoE facilities and honestly all asset classes (minus metals) are on life support. Its all artificial demand.

We face two situations, cleaning this up with massive interest rate hikes, real wages, real demand/jobs (which I dont believe will happen) or going to war with China to keep central banking book balances happy.

Aye, we are on the sidelines buying these prices on Silver and Gold but jesus... When this falls its going to be like scenes out of a movie.

I just asked TSB for a current account earlier today and they wanted me to use a non-interest account with certain provisions - that tells me they are marking up for negative interest rates. Not long ago, a mate of mines who is a plumber was struggling to get customers due to the inflation in raw materials. Obviously he has to charge the material and labour when he goes out to houses but jesus he showed me on his phone/facebook account how bad it is out there. He still gets jobs, but its slowly getting worse with people moaning about the prices/inflation and demand for job is starting to slowly thin. Swear, most of the customers reasons are not getting these trade jobs in due to the mortgage payments.

Its coming, its slow but coming 100%.

Most of the fiat is going offshore and into the East.

We need to go back to production, if we dont we are truly f*cked.

Buying up expensive used cars and insane properties is completely unsustainable. Its getting worse and this "transitory" p*sh is keeping the illusion that its all milk and honey and the price of metals is legitimate. Sick of this zombie economy.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Minimalist

[silversky]

23 minutes ago, GoldStandardPartyUK said:

I've heard that before 😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤔😭😭😭

I think I'm the only one here with that prediction, and I've still got six weeks left before getting proved wrong. 

I just feel that the huge triangle in gold is about to be broken, and once that goes, it's a whole new wave under inflationary pressure that will set off.  Silver can put on or lose 15% in a week, so getting dragged up suddenly by big yella really isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

[silversky]

23 minutes ago, Robda1986 said:

Tempted to start Stacking drums of electrical cable opposed to silver 

Copper miners.

[CaptCaveMan]

3 hours ago, Gruff said:

...the shock is coming for home owners sadly when they come to renew.

Agreed, with x3 teenagers who will be at home for some years yet, it's not so simple as to sell up and possibly downsize aka mortgage free.  I've been increasing our overpayments year on year ready for a rate rise so when my fixed rate ends and it goes up;

 i) We have a nice reserve which should remain, a rainy day buffer or ideally to reduce the term,
ii) It will also absorb a hefty rate increase as we're already used to higher premiums, it will obviously reduce overpayments short term.

Fortunately our LTV is already circa 25% which opens some better deals for when the time comes...

[Minimalist]

8 minutes ago, CaptCaveMan said:

Agreed, with x3 teenagers who will be at home for some years yet, it's not so simple as to sell up and possibly downsize aka mortgage free.

They are going to be in the house for a long time. And you looking for a buyer in the future... Who will buy at these prices? Banks? the Central Bank? What a joke man.

[silversky]

14 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

With the housing crisis getting worse every year its going to isolate and almost remove unborn generations into getting onto the property ladder. I mean I really dont get this when that will force renters into claiming private-rent benefit (LHA) and Housing benefit, which is even more spending from the Gov't. While at the same time Silver and Gold are being hammered down.

 

There is a giant end of cycle top heavy age distribution in the UK.  Simply vast amounts of property will likely come onto the market over the next few years.  It may not seem like it now, but I believe that property will tank as the number of gen x'rs selling their parent's houses picks up.

This is secretly why the government is so desperate to encourage and allow as much legal and illegal immigration into the country.  They think (wrongly) that they can avert a crisis in the pozi scheme, by bringing in more patsies to fill out the bottom of the pyramid.  This is precisely why Hong Kongers were given preferential treatment.  They have money.  I now have a couple of neighbours who are new arrivals from Hong Kong.  Nothing in the controlled media about this of course.

It will certainly be contributing to the housing market for now, but when the new imports run out, and the boomers start dying in large numbers, there's only one way the housing market can go.

Five years from now I think there will be plenty of cheap houses for younger people to buy.  The only problem will be that borrowing will be much harder.

[CaptCaveMan]

Just now, Minimalist said:

And you looking for a buyer in the future... Who will buy at these prices? Banks? the Central Bank? What a joke man.

I'm expecting the kids to still be at home when I'm getting ready to retire... unfortunately 😞

As to who will buy... on paper we have asset's but when it get's this bad what will a correction be.. 30%, 40%, 60%? fortunately we have a buffer, I'm brutally honest - it's monopoly money until in hand.

[Stacktastic]

41 minutes ago, silversky said:

Everything is about cycles.  Our whole lives are cycles, our civilisations go through generational cycles

The only advice I can give (pretty much worthless I know), is to view everything in cycles

Wise words and totally obvious to anyone that can remove themselves from Tik tock, the news of the kardasians. 
Its unbearable all the people who have tech portfolios in the red now, despite all the advice out there and previous bubbles. 
Those people have also done video on depressions and stuff - makes you wonder. 

41 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

While at the same time Silver and Gold are being hammered down.

Aye, we are on the sidelines buying these prices on Silver and Gold but jesus... When this falls its going to be like scenes out of a movie.

For some reason I stumbled on a live Michael Sailor interview today and he seems to be creating a war against gold & siding with government CBDC's & the Dollar. 
We know what he is threatened by dont we? That generally means it will perform at least in the short term (10 years).

32 minutes ago, silversky said:

I think I'm the only one here with that prediction, and I've still got six weeks left before getting proved wrong. 

Q4 I think we will start seeing some serious progress - impossible to predict, given the lunacy going on. 
I do think they will tighten crash the market and back track, which might be a nice offloading time for silver. 
And a reloading when it bottoms (higher mind) - off to the races. 

29 minutes ago, silversky said:

Copper miners.

Any recommendations?
I like Copper long term & have a 5kg bar in my safe. 
I had Sol gold but could not stomach it. 

Edited February 16, 2022 by Stacktastic

[Minimalist]

2 minutes ago, silversky said:

There is a giant end of cycle top heavy age distribution in the UK.  Simply vast amounts of property will likely come onto the market over the next few years.  It may not seem like it now, but I believe that property will tank as the number of gen x'rs selling their parent's houses picks up.

This is secretly why the government is so desperate to encourage and allow as much legal and illegal immigration into the country.  They think (wrongly) that they can avert a crisis in the pozi scheme, by bringing in more patsies to fill out the bottom of the pyramid.  This is precisely why Hong Kongers were given preferential treatment.  They have money.  I now have a couple of neighbours who are new arrivals from Hong Kong.  Nothing in the controlled media about this of course.

It will certainly be contributing to the housing market for now, but when the new imports run out, and the boomers start dying in large numbers, there's only one way the housing market can go.

Five years from now I think there will be plenty of cheap houses for younger people to buy.  The only problem will be that borrowing will be much harder.

When I go out in Edinburgh and Glasgow immigrants are getting more diverse, the Chinese have always been here but when I started to notice the size of middle easterns I was a bit taken away (this was in Edinburgh).

There are a lot of Chinese in the East side of Scotland, and almost all of them prefer Scotland due to Londons density, its more in the City areas but very rare to find immigrants in rural areas. Most rural areas like to pass their wealth down, so I dont know how this will play out. Most Scots like to live in the Central Belt in rural areas close to the Cities that have access to transport (trains).

Theres like nothing showing me that housing prices are going to fall no matter the policy that they are doing South. As you point out the borrowing is going to get much harder and the only way generations get on the property ladder is through the state-help-scheme and even at that they are limited.

The amount of business growing in Edinburgh (food and drink) that are cash operated is growing. Only the multinationals are using through the book, electronic, transactions.

I think the central banks are going take control of the whole economy and the war on cash is going to be real. When more people (per head) are going to be forced into rent, most of these people will go into cash. Its incredible.

[Minimalist]

10 minutes ago, CaptCaveMan said:

I'm expecting the kids to still be at home when I'm getting ready to retire... unfortunately 😞

As to who will buy... on paper we have asset's but when it get's this bad what will a correction be.. 30%, 40%, 60%? fortunately we have a buffer, I'm brutally honest - it's monopoly money until in hand.

Most of my friends who are in their 20s and early 30s are still at home. Honestly its going to get worse so its not surprising.

At least 60% I think. Problem is, there are too many sh*t, low paying jobs out there but not enough perm contract decent jobs. The only chance to get a perm job is a trade or uni orientated. It should be easier, over time, for the unborn to get into the property ladder with a good job.

[Minimalist]

13 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

For some reason I stumbled on a live Michael Sailor interview today and he seems to be creating a war against gold & siding with government CBDC's & the Dollar. 
We know what he is threatened by dont we? That generally means it will perform at least in the short term (10 years).

Its not looking good.

Most of my generation are into Bitcoin, im the only one with Gold... Seriously. 

[silversky]

12 minutes ago, CaptCaveMan said:

I'm expecting the kids to still be at home when I'm getting ready to retire... unfortunately 😞

As to who will buy... on paper we have asset's but when it get's this bad what will a correction be.. 30%, 40%, 60%? fortunately we have a buffer, I'm brutally honest - it's monopoly money until in hand.

Viz used to call the Euro, "Bumwad from the bank of toyland".    That always made me chuckle, but it can be applied to pretty much all fiat these days.

 

[CaptCaveMan]

1 minute ago, Minimalist said:

Most of my friends who are in their 20s and early 30s are still at home. Honestly its going to get worse so its not surprising.

At least 60% I think. Problem is, there are too many sh*t, low paying jobs out there but not enough perm contract decent jobs. The only chance to get a perm job is a trade or uni orientated. It should be easier, over time, for the unborn to get into the property ladder with a good job.

The friends I know, actually older than 20-30 who are getting property are via the bank of mum & dad and also buying with their siblings.

I can't see many earning anywhere near a decent wage to afford what many of us have managed to achieve, I say that not as a high earner but through graft, 2nd jobs, going without and luck.

 

[Minimalist]

3 minutes ago, CaptCaveMan said:

The friends I know, actually older than 20-30 who are getting property are via the bank of mum & dad and also buying with their siblings.

I can't see many earning anywhere near a decent wage to afford what many of us have managed to achieve, I say that not as a high earner but through graft, 2nd jobs, going without and luck.

 

Half that do are getting help by them 100% correct.

I co-own a business and part-time trade and its breaking me down, forcing bad habits, making me a coffee addict and walking and talking on the phone to clients and people like a vampire with lack of sleep. While most of the women round me think having a degree makes the hole between their legs feel like golden velvet while simultaneously talking about 3 or 4 bedroom houses that are worth hundreds of thousands with no hope of retirement.

I am about to explode.

[sixgun]

2 hours ago, CaptCaveMan said:

The friends I know, actually older than 20-30 who are getting property are via the bank of mum & dad and also buying with their siblings.

I can't see many earning anywhere near a decent wage to afford what many of us have managed to achieve, I say that not as a high earner but through graft, 2nd jobs, going without and luck.

 

House prices will ultimately crash in absolute terms. Whether inflation means they continue to go up in another matter but in absolute terms they will fall. Once we start to see interest rates climbing the collapse will happen quickly. 
When i was in the property market a long time ago the interest rates were much higher - the earnings multiples were much lower - they had to be because of the high interest rates. As we move into a higher interest environment there will be many who can now manage but will find they can't in the future. The most distressed start to sell, property prices start to come down. A vicious cycle of distressed sales and lower offers sets in. Property prices have been able to climb to what are ridiculous levels b/c of cheap money. When the cheap money stops the property market resets. How much depends on the level of interest rates. Could they halve? Easily - when interest rates are so low, a doubling, a trebling of rates can easily happen. Governments are afraid of this but being afraid won't make the inevitable go away.

Edited February 16, 2022 by sixgun

[CANV]

there is a once in a multi generational passing down of wealth coming from now till 2050?   as all the property owning /inflation/printed money/QE 'winners' start pegging it.   most of it will be spent on electric sports cars  natch! 

[MancunianStacker]

2 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

My Mortgage is coming up for review in july I think. I was locked in for 5 years and thought I was being clever. 

What shall I do as I could probably get a 15 year, but I guess the interest rate will be 3-4%? Thats still low isnt it, but will these things change that much considering the fed cant afford it to go up?? Im also considering going full term & putting my cash to work elsewhere. Might also take out a lump sum or over borrow as i can make 15% on the stock market blindfolded. Invest on the coming crash when people sell, sell gold & move my assets to buy a rental property as thats last to fall usually. Rent it out - keep it or sell it for 40% more.  

What do we think about that as im not the most knowledgeable. @MancunianStacker
Also whats the earliest date I can get a deal with regards to accepting it before it expires? 
Makes sense to get it done asap. 

I would lock in as long as possible as long as you’re happy with the monthly repayment amount. Is it’s affordable today, it should be in the future, right?
 

5 years ago you were doing the right thing, but bad timing sees the rates starting to increase.

 

People forget that the BOE base rate was 4% not that long ago and the average since 1970 is more like 8%. It is currently 0.5% only!!! Let that sink in for a moment.
 

Now the banks always make their margin over and above the BOE base rate because they have to hedge the late they fix you for and the longer the more it costs. I’ve been overpaying on interest on my mortgage at 2.89% for 3 years but now I have 7 years fixed at this, so I’m happy.

In July you could fix for the full term with Habito One https://help.habito.com/en/articles/5016566-habito-one-interest-rates b it you have to go direct to them. The rates are higher but it’s like having a 10 year warranty on a new car.

 

You can raise extra capital at the same time and as long as it’s affordable today, all should be fine. 👍🏻 

tbh I’d like to fix mine today for 25 years but I have 7 years left myself so I’m stuck and hoping it will be low in 2029 😱 

[TommyTwoShots]

I think it will all be fine, the bank will start printing the cash and the music will continue to play. Nothing to see here, buy buy buy.

[Roy]

1 hour ago, sixgun said:

When the cheap money stops the property market resets. How much depends on the level of interest rates. Could they halve? Easily - when interest rates are so low, a doubling, a trebling of rates can easily happen.

History could easily repeat itself- remember what happened in '91-'92?

Interest rates shot up and house prices fell as people were desperately trying to get out. 'Negative equity' was the talk of the tea room.

I heard stories of people packing a suitcase, walking out of the house and posting the keys through the letter box. Imagine owing more than the house is worth? Ouch.

But this could be an opportunity for some. I bought a repossession in '92, it was a relatively new build (2 years old) that sold for £50,000 + when new but was now in the window for £28,000.

It had been stripped, no light fittings and some kitchen units missing but was still under a builder's warranty and only needed cosmetic/home diy repair.

My mortgage rate then was 9% but the monthly payments were less than £200. As you know, mortgage rates fell soon after but that was luck not foresight!

Point is...have cash ready, act fast 'cos there'll be others in the game too, and don't worry about repairs. I'm sure everyone 'knows someone'.

[CANV]

27 minutes ago, Roy said:

History could easily repeat itself- remember what happened in '91-'92?

Interest rates shot up and house prices fell as people were desperately trying to get out. 'Negative equity' was the talk of the tea room.

I heard stories of people packing a suitcase, walking out of the house and posting the keys through the letter box. Imagine owing more than the house is worth? Ouch.

But this could be an opportunity for some. I bought a repossession in '92, it was a relatively new build (2 years old) that sold for £50,000 + when new but was now in the window for £28,000.

It had been stripped, no light fittings and some kitchen units missing but was still under a builder's warranty and only needed cosmetic/home diy repair.

My mortgage rate then was 9% but the monthly payments were less than £200. As you know, mortgage rates fell soon after but that was luck not foresight!

Point is...have cash ready, act fast 'cos there'll be others in the game too, and don't worry about repairs. I'm sure everyone 'knows someone'.

I did the same thing around then . Double Miras had been binned and it took 10? years for property prices to get back to the same levels (not index linked!) 

mine was also 2 years not a thing in it other than part of a cak MFI kitchen. and the for sale sign was wedged across the patio doors as the lock..   happy days.. pretty sure the windows and doors where the kind of cheap wood they made Abla stereo boxes out of. 

Edited February 16, 2022 by CANV

[sovereignsteve]

Yes but what's the silver price going to do?😉

[Roy]

2 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

Yes but what's the silver price going to do?😉

Noted 🙄 😊

[Minimalist]

2 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

Yes but what's the silver price going to do?😉

[Fishy321]

A more dramatic, negative, house price correction should have already happened it's more artificial than the price of silver imo... my biggest worry is the national debt levels, I guess, as money can be created out of nothing, it could be inflated away as there's no intention of ever getting debt free... 

[SidS]

13 hours ago, silversky said:

I certainly can't advise you on that.  Too many balls up in the air.  All I know is that a crash will come, no matter what they try to do.  Everything is about cycles.  Our whole lives are cycles, our civilisations go through generational cycles, and in the end there is always a collapse and rebirth.  It is the human spirit and mood which drives everything.  When people become obsessed with a particular boondoggle in late stage civilisation, energy is directed in a direction which ultimately pulls something else apart.  The zero carbon goals are a perfect example.  There is absolutely no valid science behind the zero carbon goals, yet we are gayly destroying our ability to heat, cloth and feed ourselves, all for the sake of a nonsensical pet project.  When the time comes, we'll deserve natures wrath.

Hubris is what causes chancellors and central bankers to believe that they've magically cured nature.  But nature always has the last laugh.  To be honest, I don't think many of them really do believe that they can tame the financial sea, they're just playing their own selfish part in the grand show.  They pretty much all know that one day it will all come to an end, but in the meantime they get to look important and make bank for their offspring.

The only advice I can give (pretty much worthless I know), is to view everything in cycles, and to try to see where a new cycle is beginning.  Be alert to the end of an old cycle by looking to rough timescales from history.  History doesn't repeat, but it certainly rhymes.  Land prices are a prime example of that.  Things are similar but never the same and generals often wrongly try to fight the last war.  So in the next collapse, even though credit is off the scale, it may well not be credit which sets off a collapse, and it won't fall in the same way it did in 2007.  No doubt significant work will be done to repeat the fixes from last time, but this time something else will be rotten away before it's come to everyone's attention.  It's never the same because too many people remember the last time and plan accordingly for the last war.  This includes ordinary citizens, who start to become risk averse to get ahead of the game.

Has someone being watching the Hidden Secrets of Money? 😁