Are we going to see smaller gold coins rise in popularity?

[Coverte]

23 hours ago, flyingveepixie said:

I sold a few gold Brits a while back. Found it really difficult to sell them and had to keep reducing the price until they were barely above spot, and that was when spot was around £1500

If I replace them it'll be with sovs and half sovs with an eye on the steady upward movement, which seems pretty much constant with only the odd hiccup of a relatively minor correction.

Here once again is the 25 year chart.. It goes up, then it dips, then it goes up further, then it dips, then it goes up further again etc etc.

On which platform - just here ??

Still healthy demand for 1Oz elsewhere, shifted several 1Oz .9999 no issues, and at all in a 48 hour period on another selling medium.

TSF is best for buying - or distressed privates selling for fast liquidity - that's my take from what I've seen of late.

Changed a lot the last couple of years.

[Tn21]

I think anything 100g or less in gold is currently game.

My involvement and knowledge of the PMs market only revolves around TSF. The 1ozs have struggled to sell here but i do feel as though once we get some stability on the price action, the appetite for the 1oz coins will increase where a premium can be commanded above spot( Not just Spot plus post - situation the forum is currently in) . 

The fractional pieces are a great buy if you can get them at the right price and the forum has it in abundance atm.  

 

For the future I would love to see a possible barter situation for any weight of gold (Car, building work, money transfer Fx, labour fee, etc) 

 

 

[Petra]

At the end of the day, whatever you price you sell at depends on what you have bought for. Some people the current ‘spot’ price is actually a lot more than they paid, so no problem?

smaller stuff will sell better as more people are feeling the pinch and obviously have less money to spend here, so something bought is better than nothing 🤔🫢

[Paul]

The folk who have the balls and willpower to buy high ticket proof gold stuff today at unloved mid four figures today may be very well rewarded when positive sentiment and happiness returns to the market in 5-10years time

[Petra]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

The folk who have the balls and willpower to buy high ticket proof gold stuff today at unloved mid four figures today may be very well rewarded when positive sentiment and happiness returns to the market in 5-10years time

Or …. the money?😮🤔🫢😃

[Foster88]

On 30/10/2023 at 09:09, dicker said:

Essentially, yes.

if gold goes significantly higher we might see the premiums on fractionals adjust closer to those which we see for bullion Sovs.

A bullion Sov at 400 is pricey for lots of people, a half might more palatable. Same for 10th Brits.

That was my thinking, hence starting this thread.

It’s much easier, I imagine, to sell 4 sovereigns or 8 half sovereigns in the current climate than it would be to sell 1oz of gold.

Some people may have a spare £195/£200 ish for a half sovereign or £390/£400 ish for a full sovereign than the few that have £1,600 ish spare for a full 1oz.

I use the term ‘ish’ as spot obviously fluctuates but you get the idea.

[Coverte]

15 hours ago, Petra said:

At the end of the day, whatever you price you sell at depends on what you have bought for. Some people the current ‘spot’ price is actually a lot more than they paid, so no problem?

smaller stuff will sell better as more people are feeling the pinch and obviously have less money to spend here, so something bought is better than nothing 🤔🫢

THIS.

Gold stacked 20 years ago cost under £250/oz, £220's in 2004/5, so why sell that unless you have too?

[NGMD]

I’m too immature and amateurish to give an answer TBH. I’ve only collected a few bits and bobs from the start of the year, and my head is turned from a 1oz Germania Coin to a top graded Sovereign. Get back to me in a couple of years and I’ll give you the same answer. I just like visually appealing coins/bars and specialist coasters.🤪

[arphethean]

It's interesting at the moment. Despite really solid performance of gold in the past month, people are paying pretty much the same price on sovereigns as they did a month ago, so premiums have been squeezed from a pretty healthy and normal level of 5% on sovereigns for example, to just about spot. Recently i saw sovereigns selling at 5% over spot at £390 faster than sovereigns selling at spot at £390 last week. 

Ounces now struggle to sell at spot, but they have always been a harder sell. It's not a new thing with ounces - they have always been a bit of a stretch for most budgets and therefore not as liquid, but sovereigns struggling to sell at extremely low premiums is something I've never seen before. I think, and hope, that this is an anomaly. 

Fractionals below half sovereign have always had high premiums, but there is no sign of premiums on these going still higher. In fact,  I think these again have seen premiums squeezed slightly.

I don't think it's anything to do with the price of a sovereign or an ounce being too much for the stackers' budget, rather that the recent 10% jump is being seen as an unsustainable spike and the market is adjusting slowly. If you look at the previous dip in late Sept to £1490 as being an anomalous and temporary dip, it changes the picture. In the long run, 1600 will be seen as a missed opportunity I reckon. The last 5 years has seen an increase of 70% in gold, so if that's repeated, £1600 will be a distant memory.  Can you imagine £2700 an ounce, £650 a sovereign in 2028?

So I don't think there has been a significant change towards smaller gold recently. And therefore I don't think there is more or less sense in buying any weight class over any other - this is determined by your budget. At the right premium, any bullion performs about as well as anything else over time in my experience. Sovereigns included. Sovereigns would remain my recommended medium of gold as they are usually quicker to sell than other sizes. 

[Petra]

🤔😮funny thing is that currently on some dealers sites full sovereigns have either stayed same price or fell a couple of pounds whilst half sovereigns are staying stubbornly above £200 🤔😮

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

Nobody wants to deal with the elephant in the room?

If big gold gets too expensive and small gold gets too expensive, then it's back to the money of the people - SILVER  🤗

[arphethean]

That's interesting. 

Halves traditionally less popular than fulls I believe, but minted in much smaller numbers

[Petra]

4 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

Nobody wants to deal with the elephant in the room?

If big gold gets too expensive and small gold gets too expensive, then it's back to the money of the people - SILVER  🤗

🤔🫢😮

[Brit2023]

If it’s a gold elephant can I have it?

[Paul]

On 03/11/2023 at 10:44, Coverte said:

THIS.

Gold stacked 20 years ago cost under £250/oz, £220's in 2004/5

So if trends continue, unlimited money printing, endless wars and reckless government borrowing 

Can we guess-timate gold should be around £10k+ ounce one I retire in 20 years 

Again gold didn't do nothing, it is a pet rock

Endless bank and government meddling just caused it's perceived fiat value £/$ to alter 

[Petra]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

So if trends continue, unlimited money printing, endless wars and reckless government borrowing 

Can we guess-timate gold should be around £10k+ ounce one I retire in 20 years 

Again gold didn't do nothing, it is a pet rock

Endless bank and government meddling just caused it's perceived fiat value £/$ to alter 

🫢🤔😮let me know whichever way it goes…. I’ll be long gone🤔🫢

[Paul]

7 minutes ago, Petra said:

🫢🤔😮let me know whichever way it goes…. I’ll be long gone🤔🫢

Get as much unsecured credit cards and loans you can get. They can't chase you beyond the grave

[Foster88]

4 hours ago, Paul said:

Again gold didn't do nothing, it is a pet rock

 

Someone once became a millionaire from selling ‘pet’ rocks. 😆

Good marketing and stupid people can make you a fortune.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pet_Rock

[Roy]

I'm probably repeating what others have said, but fractional gold will always be liquid and, unless you are forced to sell for spot (or 97% 😟), the premium you pay at purchase will generally be recouped at sale.

One ounce coins have the lowest premium but unless you plan to liquidate at a dealer, you may struggle to find a buyer as the gold price increases. I was drawn to this route but soon changed tack as I found I was was getting too many cheeky offers.

I suggest smaller gold coins have to rise in popularity.

A few years ago, a sovereign was £200, now a half sovereign is £200. An ounce was £800 and now 1/2 ounce is £800. This is because our fiat currency is depreciating yet our wages are not doubling to cover this. Sure, if our wages had increased 100% in the last few years, an ounce would be just as easily affordable.

(I'm specifically talking about bullion)

 

 

[arphethean]

16 hours ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

Nobody wants to deal with the elephant in the room?

If big gold gets too expensive and small gold gets too expensive, then it's back to the money of the people - SILVER  🤗

Gold has pretty much always been a more attractive metal than silver for stackers or investors. Previously seen as less volatile, and more practical. Silver is often hyped a having enormous potential, this has at various times promoted it to a popular status that brings more stackers into the market. However, it's not multi bagged so far, and generally its performance has been decidedly poorer than gold for a long time. I think gold price is now actually more volatile than silver!

I think there will always be a relationship between the two, but if gold gets too expensive,I do think @Foster88's prediction of stackers moving towards smaller gold is more likely than moving en masse to silver, unless the gold:silver ratio shows signs of improvement. 

[KleinerVogel]

Yeah I can see more people swapping out to half sovs, or 1/4 brits/1/10 brits as the price of gold rises. Unfortunately the dealers will probably see that trend as a prompt to raise the premiums too. So either way, the less wealthy will end up eventually being priced out of gold, even with the lesser weights. Then again, I have to ask myself, is gold really increasing in price or is it simply adjusting it's value to the weakening of fiat currency?

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

4 hours ago, arphethean said:

Gold has pretty much always been a more attractive metal than silver for stackers or investors. Previously seen as less volatile, and more practical. Silver is often hyped a having enormous potential, this has at various times promoted it to a popular status that brings more stackers into the market. However, it's not multi bagged so far, and generally its performance has been decidedly poorer than gold for a long time. I think gold price is now actually more volatile than silver!

I think there will always be a relationship between the two, but if gold gets too expensive,I do think @Foster88's prediction of stackers moving towards smaller gold is more likely than moving en masse to silver, unless the gold:silver ratio shows signs of improvement. 

All true and silver has a long history of disappointing stackers/investors. Historically though we should expect both gold and silver to beat inflation. Silver has hugely underperformed in the last decade relative to both gold and inflation. At some point mean reversion will return those real-term losses to both gold and silver, with silver having more to gain

In our high inflation economy the average UK household can afford to buy roughly a sovereign/month without affecting their finances. A lot of people will buy silver not out of choice but because it's their only remaining viable option. If all you can afford is 1/10th of gold then if you sell it's an equally big deal. But everybody can afford an ounce or two of silver. Silver has been used as a real currency in living memory (e.g. US Constitutional), while you'd have to be over 100 years old to remember folks using gold

You're right of course that some people will never buy silver, a lot of folks on TSF don't like it, but if gold booms like people expect even 1/10th will be out of reach for many. Sorry I've kind of de-railed. Fractional gold is great if you can buy it at low premiums and no doubt fractional will become more and more popular as gold price increases

[Paul]

10 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

All true and silver has a long history of disappointing stackers/investors. Historically though we should expect both gold and silver to beat inflation. Silver has hugely underperformed in the last decade relative to both gold and inflation. At some point mean reversion will return those real-term losses to both gold and silver, with silver having more to gain

In our high inflation economy the average UK household can afford to buy roughly a sovereign/month without affecting their finances. A lot of people will buy silver not out of choice but because it's their only remaining viable option. If all you can afford is 1/10th of gold then if you sell it's an equally big deal. But everybody can afford an ounce or two of silver. Silver has been used as a real currency in living memory (e.g. US Constitutional), while you'd have to be over 100 years old to remember folks using gold

You're right of course that some people will never buy silver, a lot of folks on TSF don't like it, but if gold booms like people expect even 1/10th will be out of reach for many. Sorry I've kind of de-railed. Fractional gold is great if you can buy it at low premiums and no doubt fractional will become more and more popular as gold price increases

Whatever gold chooses to do, silver will tag along for the ride 

If it can revert to say 30:1 for example 

At £1611 Oz for gold it only gets us to £53.70 Oz for SLV 

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

19 minutes ago, Paul said:

Whatever gold chooses to do, silver will tag along for the ride 

If it can revert to say 30:1 for example 

At £1611 Oz for gold it only gets us to £53.70 Oz for SLV 

Commodities or raw materials have a correlation (Pearson's r coefficients) with each other as well as with currencies. In the table below, the data shows that during this timeframe, gold (XAU/USD) had little correlation with other major currencies. However, it does indicate that it shared a strong positive correlation of 81 with silver (XAG/USD)

This essentially means that 80% of price action in gold is described by price action in silver and vice-versa. This does NOT mean causation, like silver doesn't necessarily rise because gold has risen, there are many factors in play, however, the trend is extremely strong. If you wanted to pick more highly correlated assets you'd have to look at something like BTC and ETH, which a Pearson's r coefficient of roughly 0.89

[apachebleu]

On 02/11/2023 at 15:12, Tn21 said:

I think anything 100g or less in gold is currently game.

My involvement and knowledge of the PMs market only revolves around TSF. The 1ozs have struggled to sell here but i do feel as though once we get some stability on the price action, the appetite for the 1oz coins will increase where a premium can be commanded above spot( Not just Spot plus post - situation the forum is currently in) . 

The fractional pieces are a great buy if you can get them at the right price and the forum has it in abundance atm.  

 

For the future I would love to see a possible barter situation for any weight of gold (Car, building work, money transfer Fx, labour fee, etc) 

 

 

 You know I'd love that too and if there's anywhere it would work then it's here!

 If someone was selling a car or whatever and wanted gold in payment I'd be up for that, likewise most things u sell I just buy gold anyway so skip the middle man!

 I reckon @ChrisSilver should think about this as a short term experiment