Silver squeeze

[HawkHybrid]

Quote

Conclusions

The story of silver shortage is an old one now, it can be traced back at least to 1998, when analysts started to claim that silver would enter a state of permanent shortage. Surprise, surprise – it didn’t happen. What does it mean for the investors? Don’t listen to the so-called experts who have been calling for the silver shortage for years. Given the relatively large holdings in the world, it’s actually hard to imagine a lasting shortage of the white metal. (Silver holdings are smaller than gold holdings, but still larger than holdings of other commodities.) Indeed, silver usually remains in contango, not in backwardation, which implies that there is no supply shortage. Thus, forget about this idea. Making decisions based on false premises is the shortest way to suffer losses.

https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/dictionary/silver-shortage/

 

HH

[HerefordBullyun]

9 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/dictionary/silver-shortage/

 

HH

ok why have the US mint admitted shortages then? 

[Spark268]

18 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/dictionary/silver-shortage/

 

HH

these people are always negative on gold & silver, even back in 2019 when the great bull began.

[HawkHybrid]

4 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

ok why have the US mint admitted shortages then? 

 

because they have shortages. true.

problem is it's only ever part of the story.

they are short of coin blanks with which to mint the coins. (notice how no one seams to

tell you this important part of the story)

there is plenty of silver, just the suppliers of silver blanks to the us mint are running behind.

 

HH

[HawkHybrid]

1 minute ago, Spark268 said:

these people are always negative on gold & silver, even back in 2019 when the great bull began.

 

where is the proof of that?

what about @LawrenceChard, would you say that he is also always negative about gold and silver

just because he doesn't believe the hype of silver short squeeze. (please don't bring gold into this.

as an investment physical gold is nothing like rubbish that is physical silver. physical silver holders are

always trying to bring gold to help defend there side. gold has reclaimed most of it's 2011 loses($)

where as silver is less than 60% of it's 2011 high.)

why did the great bull begin in 2019 and not dec 2015? two years worth of average price rises makes

a great bull market?

but then again it's easier to believe every physical pumper that's been linked to on this thread because

they say what you want to hear, despite the fact each and every one one them was cheering for silver

to 'go to the moon' for years after it's peak in 2011 that started silver on a bear market that would last

9 years and see a drop of over 70% from it's 2011 highs.

at least sunshineprofits use recognised data to quantify their reasoning.

 

https://www.thesilverforum.com/topic/47759-silver-squeeze/?do=findComment&comment=514240

Quote

'The crime that the dealers  are still offering sub spot prices for buying your silver.'

you do realise there is a good reason for this and it's not dealers such as chards ripping people off?

 

HH

[HerefordBullyun]

2 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

where is the proof of that?

what about @LawrenceChard, would you say that he is also always negative about gold and silver

just because he doesn't believe the hype of silver short squeeze. (please don't bring gold into this.

as an investment physical gold is nothing like rubbish that is physical silver. physical silver holders are

always trying to bring gold to help defend there side. gold has reclaimed most of it's 2011 loses($)

where as silver is less than 60% of it's 2011 high.)

why did the great bull begin in 2019 and not dec 2015? two years worth of average price rises makes

a great bull market?

but then again it's easier to believe every physical pumper that's been linked to on this thread because

they say what you want to hear, despite the fact each and every one one them was cheering for silver

to 'go to the moon' for years after it's peak in 2011 that started silver on a bear market that would last

9 years and see a drop of over 70% from it's 2011 highs.

at least sunshineprofits use recognised data to quantify their reasoning.

 

https://www.thesilverforum.com/topic/47759-silver-squeeze/?do=findComment&comment=514240

you do realise there is a good reason for this and it's not dealers such as chards ripping people off?

 

HH

Silver will have its day the previous charts prove it! So quick to diss golds little brother!

[HawkHybrid]

Just now, HerefordBullyun said:

Silver will have its day the previous charts prove it! So quick to diss golds little brother!

 

silver will have it's day. with hindsight what would you say to those profiting from pumping

up the price of physical silver in 2011 for naive victims to hold onto a falling silver asset for

9 years as the price declined? are they ignorant or with selfish intent?

I never said silver cannot rise and make people money. but believing the hype is stupid.

 

HH

[HerefordBullyun]

Just now, HawkHybrid said:

 

silver will have it's day. with hindsight what would you say to those profiting from pumping

up the price of physical silver in 2011 for naive victims to hold onto a falling silver asset for

9 years as the price declined? are they ignorant or with selfish intent?

I never said silver cannot rise and make people money. but believing the hype is stupid.

 

HH

Who said I believe the hype?

[HawkHybrid]

6 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Who said I believe the hype?

 

I said those who believe the hype are stupid.(general statement)

 

you didn't say what you think of the physical pumpers during the 2011 peak?

(at least golds store of value means that it's recovered most of it's non inflation

adjusted price($), it has taken 9 years though)

 

HH

Edited May 28, 2021 by HawkHybrid

[Stacktastic]

2 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

https://smaulgld.com/there-is-no-silver-shortage/

someone who actually knows what they are talking about.

 

HH

I concur. I like Maneco very nice guy, but he earns a living off Youtube
& knows little about some of the subjects he talks about (ie mining). 
Im a year in on this and I know more that he does in some areas.

Good initial source for people though & a useful person to educate the financially illiterate. 
You move on after that, although I like his Sunday live chats, I occasionally watch them. 

Edited May 28, 2021 by Stacktastic

[Spark268]

1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

where is the proof of that?

 

i signed up for a free trial a while back and I still get their emails.

They make several calls on a short and a long term basis, they are correct less than 50% of the time.

If you had followed their 'reasoned' analysis using 'recognised' sources, you would have missed out on the opportunity to buy gold at $1350 an ounce.

 

1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

you didn't say what you think of the physical pumpers during the 2011 peak?

(at least golds store of value means that it's recovered most of it's non inflation

adjusted price($), it has taken 9 years though)

ok Captain hindsight !

i think you need to stop making your own suppositions, generalisations and exaggerations, attributing them to other people and then ridiculing them.

 

Edited May 28, 2021 by Spark268

[HawkHybrid]

19 minutes ago, Spark268 said:

i think you need to stop making your own suppositions, generalisations and exaggerations, attributing them to other people and then ridiculing them.

 

how is saying that silver lost over 70% of it price $13(low)/$48(peak) from the 2011 peak an exaggeration?

I'm not even going to bother to dig up the articles of physical silver pumping in 2011.

1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

you do realise there is a good reason for this and it's not dealers such as chards ripping people off?

you chose not to give a response for this?

 

HH

Edited May 28, 2021 by HawkHybrid

[Spark268]

those two price points you mentioned are extremes that lasted 1-2 days. Not an adequate basis for analysis.

The retail price of silver at the moment is around 32, which comes in at $45/oz, which isn't far off.  You say we are not in a squeeze: we've already reached 2011 levels (definite squeeze levels) in a non-squeeze situation, and that's fantastic !

I never said dealers are ripping people off: the original post that you (mis-)quoted states the exact opposite.  

This is a silver forum, so try not to get upset if people speak positively towards it. You might have a happier existence that way.

[LawrenceChard]

1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

where is the proof of that?

what about @LawrenceChard, would you say that he is also always negative about gold and silver

just because he doesn't believe the hype of silver short squeeze. (please don't bring gold into this.

as an investment physical gold is nothing like rubbish that is physical silver. physical silver holders are

always trying to bring gold to help defend there side. gold has reclaimed most of it's 2011 loses($)

where as silver is less than 60% of it's 2011 high.)

why did the great bull begin in 2019 and not dec 2015? two years worth of average price rises makes

a great bull market?

but then again it's easier to believe every physical pumper that's been linked to on this thread because

they say what you want to hear, despite the fact each and every one one them was cheering for silver

to 'go to the moon' for years after it's peak in 2011 that started silver on a bear market that would last

9 years and see a drop of over 70% from it's 2011 highs.

at least sunshineprofits use recognised data to quantify their reasoning.

 

https://www.thesilverforum.com/topic/47759-silver-squeeze/?do=findComment&comment=514240

you do realise there is a good reason for this and it's not dealers such as chards ripping people off?

 

HH

I can't really help with an opinion about the negativity.

I don't spend much time reading lots of the blogs, or watching videos, about silver prices, demand, squeezes, and when I do, I don't believe most of it.

I have said in the past that I don't get involved with the hype, and this also applies to stories trying to talk precious metals down.

Most of this stuff seems to originat with lobbyists or their followers.

Having said that, when everybody thinks that something is going to go up, it usually does, but largely because they are all buying it, and prophesy is self-fulfilling. It is often just a short term thing though, and after a few day or weeks, demand and prices usually regress to where they were, or close to.

 

[HawkHybrid]

16 minutes ago, Spark268 said:

The retail price of silver at the moment is around 32, which comes in at $45/oz, which isn't far off. 

 

how can you compare market exchange prices with retail prices?

what would be useful is knowing that the retails price is rumoured to have hit ~$43-47 when the

silver price hit $48 in 2011. how much are american retail prices today? apmex price ~$35(not sure

about taxes).

even if retail prices are close to what they were in 2011 how much of it is premium?(current spot price

~$28)

of course the easy comparison would be to compare both spot prices $28(today) versus $48(2011 peak)

and say that it has lost ~40%.

higher premiums is the result of a broken silver squeeze. (because there are no shorters being squeezed.

if comex had shorters being squeezed it would reflect equally in the comex price for silver)

 

28 minutes ago, Spark268 said:

I never said dealers are ripping people off: the original post that you (mis-)quoted states the exact opposite. 

I never said that you said that dealers are ripping people off. I was hinting that you should re-read

@LawrenceChard post about not believing the hype. (I purposely chose chards as the example of a

dealer) 

31 minutes ago, Spark268 said:

This is a silver forum, so try not to get upset if people speak positively towards it. You might have a happier existence that way.

it's because it's a silver forum that people should not be lied to, mislead and tricked into believing something

that simply isn't true about silver. I don't upset people who are actually into silver when I say that silver

can make you money(timed correctly) but don't listen to the hype about prices shooting to the moon. I only

upset the fanatics and those who have a self interest to mislead people to over pay for their silver.

 

HH

[Uksilverstackers]

I see coin/bar dealer businesses that need to move stock to make a profit to stay in business, but when looking at their webpages it mostly says out of stock and yes the items they do have in stock the premiums have increased.

Is that ripping buyers off, or a business trying to stay solvent and keep trading? 
 

No different to other retail shops etc. 

Everyone has a choice to choose to pay the price or not. The retailer needs customers.

Edited May 28, 2021 by Uksilverstackers

[Spark268]

1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

how can you compare market exchange prices with retail prices?

 

and

1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

even if retail prices are close to what they were in 2011 how much of it is premium?

the price is the price. The existence of a premium suggests the market is not 'buying' the paper silver price (no pun intended).

Take a look at this chart, which shows the GBP paper price of silver. Excluding the overshoots that occurred in April & Sep 2011, we are almost there. I omit the highs, because in a squeeze, such as the 80's and 2011, the price overshoots and becomes unsustainable.

Notice that the current rise has taken a breather, rather than peaking as it did in 2011. That looks very healthy to me. 

Below are premiums (source: https://exploringfinance.shinyapps.io/goldsilver/). The premium for Eagles (pink line-right scale) in 2011 was around 10%, and has risen steadily to almost 30% now.  Even the 1000oz deliverable bars have seen their premiums increase!

:

 

I do not see much hype on these forums, nor this thread. No one here is advocating a a squeeze. Should it happen though, the skies the limit: its just the way squeezes work.

Edited May 28, 2021 by Spark268

[HerefordBullyun]

Due TO GLOBAL SILVER SHORTAGE

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-mint-delays-silver-shipments-due-global-silver-shortage

[sixgun]

 

[TommyTwoShots]

It will be the copper ‘squeeze’ tomorrow 😂

[Spark268]

well there's definitely a squeeze in the number of Wall Street Silver members, up 7000 in one day !

[CadmiumGreen]

As somewhat applicable based on previous comments, US Mint’s 2021 Morgan Silver dollars (D, S, P) are now TBD, to also include the 2021 Silver Peace Dollar. Assessing that this validates the shortage of silver blanks.

[sixgun]

Those manic eyes of the silver shill himself Jeff Christian.  😂😂

Just keep the squeeze coming lads.

Edited May 29, 2021 by sixgun

[Uksilverstackers]

9 hours ago, CadmiumGreen said:

As somewhat applicable based on previous comments, US Mint’s 2021 Morgan Silver dollars (D, S, P) are now TBD, to also include the 2021 Silver Peace Dollar. Assessing that this validates the shortage of silver blanks.

I seem to recall in the not so distant past the US Mint has halted production of coins in recent years for one reason or another before starting up again.

Guess this year they can blame it on a shortage....

I think I read somewhere that there is some legal requirement that the US Mint can only buy US mined silver, so maybe halting production is part of their Modus Operandi for pricing. 

 

[HawkHybrid]

On 28/05/2021 at 19:09, Spark268 said:

I omit the highs, because in a squeeze, such as the 80's and 2011, the price overshoots and becomes unsustainable.

 

this I agree with.

a silver squeeze is unsustainable.

all the hype about 'how the silver price will be trading at it's correct price(much higher)' etc.

complete nonsense.

 

(I'm not saying that a silver short squeeze(defined as shorters being forced to close their positions)

is possible at this time, or that even if the silver price passes its year highs that it'll actually pass it's

2011 highs)

 

HH