vand

Both gold and FTSE with a percent or so of their all time highs. Surely nothing to do with ongoing debasement of the currency. 

16 hours ago, AuricGoldfinger said:

Wheres @vand when you need him. This is not the time to sell people!

I keep a watching brief.

Greetings to long and loyal PM fans. Stay the course. If you have a well balanced portfolio you should not be tempted to tinker with it just because one component is going well.

RSilver and RGold is just how far price is away from the 200day simple moving average. 

https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/dictionary/relative-gold/

When traders point out how correlated gold and Yen seem to be, I always sigh. Of course they are.. currencies are pairs trades, short one/long the other.

When one currency is going down that tends to mean its going down against everything else.

Gold/USD is partly a currency trade, and so the negative relationship is generally true, but like other currency pairs, and there can be periods were both trend together, just as USD and GBP can both get weaker against other major currencies.

JPY/USD has about -0.9 correlated to Gold/USD
AUD/USD has about -0.8 correlation to Gold/USD

Recent price action is nicely supportive, as we are still around £20 and the moving averages are catching up. 

The r-Silver ratio has already contracted from 1.65 to 1.4. My guess is that we're probably still closer to the start of the correction than we are to the end of it, and another few weeks are probably needed.

I have money ready to deploy but not in an immediate hurry.

Price action suggests a very real chance we will move above the recent high rather than go below the recent low. With gold at $2000 right now I think it’s a coin flip whether we see $2200 or $1800 first.

30yr Mortgage Rates:

Wonger got faded by Dalio lol

https://markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/gold-price-ray-dalio-invested-400-million-precious-metal-q2-2020-8-1029501695

2 hours ago, KDave said:

It's been straight up since March. A single day correction is not really going to cut it in my view, we need consolidation to the downside with weak hands being tested and thrown out. I reckon we see the lows in December as in previous years (2016 especially). 

If it goes to plan I'll start buying in October onward wish me luck 

You're right, a single session does not a correction make.. however we also have no way to know even if we're at the short term top.. gold and silver could easily just be regroup here ready for a push even higher past $2100 gold adn $30 silver.  The way virtually every gold commentator is now saying "long overdue correction is here" kinda makes me think that there's at least a small chance that we might not be done yet.

Man, I'm a bit gutted. Seeing how low gold had corrected I was gonna add some gold ETF this morning but the spot price zoomed up before 8am, so just sitting tight for now. I don't think this correction is over by any means - I think its just getting started. Failed retest of the highs is quite likely imo.

18 minutes ago, Foster88 said:

Down it goes.... but this might be the buying opportunity that some have been waiting for.

Not yet... not by a long shot. It takes time as much as anything to flush out the weak hands. I expect a multi-week unwinding during which the price of gold and silver will get sold off lower, but also the moving averages will have moved up too, before we find some support with new money ready for a new move higher.

Caution is still highly advised.

Relative silver hit +65% overnight last Thursday. This was the most extreme reading since the 1987 spike, surpassing even the 2011 peak.  It has only surpassed this level on 2 occassions - 1980 and 1983.

A correction is overdue and it could be bloody enough to shock many new silverbugs who have recently been conditioned to expect that prices only ever go up.

https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/dictionary/relative-silver/

On 03/09/2019 at 16:41, vand said:

this is nowhere near a parabolic move.

The current spot price is only 15.3% above the 200dma.

That is not even very extended for a historic market. You can expect several +20% readings at each stage of the bull market before a final blowoff top where there will be very clear warning signs - last time it was very clear when silver quickly went from $20 to $50.

We are technically overbrought, but a common characteristic of strong bull markets is that they can stay overbrought for a long time before a correction.

The r-gold reading got to +26%, last week in USD and +22% in GBP, which is quite an extreme reading. I would be looking for it to fall back again to at least below 10%. That would probably take us back below $1800 and £1400.

Silver has gone into Wiley Coyote mode here and carried on going up when gold has fallen back today.  GSR now printing with a 69.x handle.

Is this a case of the tail wagging the dog?

31% away from the GBP all time highs. That actually feels doable withouta "years away" caveat.

We've had an incredible last 4 months - it will take more than just a couple of days or even weeks for the correction to play out.  Now is not the time to be aggressively adding to your positions.

Back in the early 2000s bull market silver would typically correct 30% from this sort of position and then spend 12-18 months building back up to its old highs. 

2 minutes ago, DarkChameleon said:

Even more, its high was $29.86 i believe, now $27.50....if imwas into etf id say now is time to buy,  6% drop is a good buy in...wouldnt waste time buying physical, the premiums are not down 6%....youd need $32 to get your money back.

6% is nothing.. I think it will correct more like 25-30%. 

Have we seen a short term top? Silver now down a full $2 from its overnight highs as the USD finds some buyers.

Gary's timeframe would also roughly fit in with belangp's, who had a stab at it in this video:

Gary Savage (Smart Money Tracker) is one of the few traders who I bother paying attention to. 

He says gold will go into a bubble phase after the correction has played out for the current upswing, in which gold should go to $7,000-$10,000
 

That's some forecast. Not in terms of the size of the move (I've also maintained that a 500%+ trough to peak move should be expected in an "average" bull market) , but in the timeframe he's expecting it to play out.. within the next 18 months or so.  I though it would take a few years and only peak in the back half of this decade.

I actually have some respect for Hulbert, who weighs in with his piece:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-is-a-foolish-place-to-put-your-money-right-now-if-you-check-the-facts-2020-08-07?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

The underpinning of his argument is wrong though. He assumes that there is no reason for gold's real purchasing power to increase over time. But that is a naive assumption. Gold is good money, and good money benefits from increased economic prosperity in seeing its real purchasing power appreciate by 1-2% a year. 

You don't need to own the stock of companies to benefit from the good things that companies do for us.   You just need to own good money which appreciates in real value as the beneficiary of ongoing productivity increases.


 

6 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/gold/already-gold-great-shouldnt-buy/

I don't why this idiot is saying don't buy any more gold because of it valueless investment. He fails to understand that we know that it's hedge against a ponzi scheme.

Well he's probably right in that we are seeing short term FOMO and those are the sort of johnny come lately buyers that don't understand what they're buying and so will dump it when it corrects 20%.

But it's a good sign that we are nowhere near the greed phase. When mainstream financial writers say that everyone should put 20% into gold then that is when we need to start thinking about doing the opposite.

I once again advise caution here..

Silver is current stretched as far above its 200dma (about 64%)  as it was at previous short term peaks during its early 2000s climb:

Pullback is surely imminent. 

The HUI index hasn't even completed its base yet:

Damn.. got up to £22.5 and change overnight.

these big out-of-hour moves are quite unusual. I’m not sure what it signals - maybe another sign of weakening dollar hegemony.