vand

Post a chart... any chart.

Commentary is optional.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-america-declares-the-end-of-the-60-40-standard-portfolio-2019-10-15?mod=MW_story_top_stories

3 hours ago, pneustack said:

I dont know much about daily cycles, I'll have to check out more of this guy's charting work. 

To me, GC looks as simple as a Head & Shoulders top, with the current trade (1490) just backtesting the neckline, and an ultimate target of 1417.  

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

I think he calls the market pretty well and one of the few TAs that I pay much attention to.
His "yearly/imtermediate/daily cycle" system is simply a way of framing trends within different timeframes.

I'm not a great believer in options expiry dates causing significant price moves. It's too convenient a "blame someone else" card that can be used on 5% of total trading days.

I prefer to put it down to simply a necessary intermediate term cyclical correction. Need to flush out the weak money and price and moving averages need to converge before we are ready to go back up in a meaningful way.

Ouchie.

Correction continues.

I fear this is heading back down another dollar or 2.

Looks like we're bouncing now, having corrected from the massively overbought levels we reached on the run up to £16. 

New [recent] highs aren't impossible in the short term.

This is getting boring. I actually wouldn't mind a pullback now... lol

6 hours ago, vand said:

this is nowhere near a parabolic move.

The current spot price is only 15.3% above the 200dma.

That is not even very extended for a historic market. You can expect several +20% readings at each stage of the bull market before a final blowoff top where there will be very clear warning signs - last time it was very clear when silver quickly went from $20 to $50.

We are technically overbrought, but a common characteristic of strong bull markets is that they can stay overbrought for a long time before a correction.

Hmm, actually, on reviewing this, I may have overstated this rgold indicator. 15% can be considered extended, and 20% is quite rare.

Here's an article from the last bull market: https://www.mining.com/gold-overbought/

(incidentally, rgold readings of -5% or lower look like excellent entry points)

On 28/08/2019 at 09:44, vand said:

 

Current Price	£15.02
5 Year High	£15.78

3.8% away

 

 

£15.82. BOSH. 

This is the explosive "rip your face off" stage of the rally.

Further upside is possible, but I would advise short term caution at this stage. PMs have ticked all the  boxes they need to at this point for the healthy bull market case.

this is nowhere near a parabolic move.

The current spot price is only 15.3% above the 200dma.

That is not even very extended for a historic market. You can expect several +20% readings at each stage of the bull market before a final blowoff top where there will be very clear warning signs - last time it was very clear when silver quickly went from $20 to $50.

We are technically overbrought, but a common characteristic of strong bull markets is that they can stay overbrought for a long time before a correction.

On 28/08/2019 at 09:44, vand said:

 

Current Price	£15.02
5 Year High	£15.78

3.8% away

 

 

£15.70

Now just a smidge away.

Yep.. this bull market is still in its infancy.

*facepalm*

Diversify! Balance is key! 

Too many of your eggs in any one basket leads to acting on fear rather than being rational in your decision making. This is a guaranteed way to lose in the market, no matter what your investment vehicle of  choice may be.

Here is the Permanent Portfolio's recent performance: Its not a very meaningful time period, just that it coincides with the start of the tax year when I got my shnitz together on this diversification wagon.

Do you think that investors pursuing this strategy sleep soundly at night? They are isolated from the wild swings of both gold and equities, while charting a smoother path to the gains. With the business cycle where it is, I cannot think of a better strategy that balances risk and reward. 

The OP had absolutely no business buying gold in the first place as it was clear that he did not understand the nature of gold, and you should never invest in anything you don't understand. 

But that's alright... there isn't an investor alive who hasn't made a tonne of screw ups. It's how we learn. I have learnt more from my failures than I have from any of my successes. 

3 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

With the current weakness of the pound looking at it this way is misleading.

It is what it is, to use a slightly annoying truism.

I am happy to discuss USD price on the USD thread, but I get paid in GBP. 

Silver is doing the biz in many currencies around the world.. a accurate thing to say would be that the USD price has been supressed by the strength of the dollar.

2 hours ago, goldmember44 said:

Wow, indeed... to get out of gold now, and push that money into the stock market instead at this point seems totally irresponsible. All the warning signs are there for the global economy, we are anticipating recession.. the stock market has had an amazing run-up until now... but the tides are turning. There will be another opportunity to get into stocks again for the next equities bull market, but many things need to get resolved before then, and stocks need to bottom out.

Most people don't "get" gold at all.  They see it as an unproductive asset with no cashflow, therefore they are willing to unload it at the earliest opportunity which will show them a profit.   They are way over-exposed to stocks and ignoring the warning signs that the bond and gold markets are flashing.

The last 3 months is nothing in the overall scheme of things.

Sentiment will take YEARS to swing around to a point where PMs are eagarly positioned in the wider investment community. Don't underestimate how dumb the dumb money is; there is still huge distrust of PMs and a total misunderstanding of their role within an investment portfolio.  At this point of the cycle we have the institutional investors who are starting to accumulate gold. The "retail investor" stage is still years away.

All I see right now is people who are taking advantage of the recent bump to sell their gold and swap it for VTSAX. They will be the ones missing out on the next great bull market. Their expectations are clouded by what stocks have done vs what PMs have done for the last 5 years.

3.8% away

3 minutes ago, Pete said:

I would settle for any number between £50 and £100 but is your view backed by insider information or time travel ?
Happy to sit and wait it out but are we talking this millennia ?

Within the course of this cyclical bull market. It will take as many years as it needs to take.That may be 5 years or it may be 15. Markets do not operate on a schedule, and people who have expectations for them to do so inevitably end up disappointed...

10 minutes ago, Airhead said:

With th price of spot increasing as it is, do people have any ideas what the top is likely to be and is there likely to be a pull-back or retracement? 

My view is that top is likely to be >£50, possibly >£100, and yes there will be pullbacks along the way, some of them deep and scary

$18 tagged, baby.

PMs have "gapped up" overnight. Could be a volatile week coming up.. 

13 hours ago, goldmember44 said:

You will always get gold bulls and bears, and people with negative views on gold. However gold is definitely not as volatile as the stock market, and because it's a store of value it will always retain value -- it has for thousands of years, for much longer than stocks or fiat currencies even existed. Gold is seen as at the same level of risk as cash, as per the latest Basel rules, Tier 1 in capital adequacy. There's a reason why the biggest chunks of money in the world are aggressively moving into gold (central banks) -- because it's a safe haven, an insurance against risk of wars, economic troubles, etc.

While I am a fan of PMs, I am also scrupulously fair to other investments, and what you say is not entirely accurate. Gold tends to be more volatile than stocks, which tend to be more volatile than bonds.

Yes, gold is proven very long term store of value, but its shorter term cycle swings can be wild.

That is why in most asset allocation plans they allocate quite a small chunk to gold and much larger quantities to bonds. It is because of the inherent volatility of these assets classes.

While I think PMs are well positioned to deliver strong gains, it will be a wild ride with plenty of corrections, and you should not hold more than your risk tolerance allows. This is true of any asset. Humans are emotional creatures; losses hurt more than gains make you feel good, meaning that most people are best served with a balanced and well diversified portfolio that smooths out the ride while still capturing much of the upside.

I operate on a general rule of thumb: "if it's on eBay it's probably fake."