vand

Another good treeshake today, and more tellingly the miners got absolutely whacked, which I think means the odds favour further downside in the short term.

Could possibly see sub-£11 again, especially if GBP continues to improve. I think I'll stop my buying for a month or two as or until I think we're close to an intermediate bottom.

Another tranch ordered today.

Mainly 2016 Maples @ 18% over spot from my usual dealer.  Have to arrange delivery next week. It's gonna be epic!

Good beatdown today, should flush out some of the weak hands. Mining shares are WAYYYYY overstretched and need to correct a fair bit.

I don't know if any of you follow Gary Savage (smartmoneyblog). I've followed him for a few years and he makes pretty good calls based on his cycle analysis method.

http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/05/caution-next-week-metals.html

Just ordered some silver bullion from Celticgold, consisting of:

- 2016 ASEs, 20.8% above spot (I have never seen them this cheap - normally they go for 25-27% above spot)
- 2016 Somalian Elephants, 24% above spot
- 2016 Kooks, 27% above spot

Absolute bargains imo.

In common with all my purchases from them, I'm using their vault facility and will take delivery of several purchases rolled up into one, which should be a massive saving on top of the (imo) market leading cheap prices. Expecting to take delivery of about 400oz in a couple of weeks!

New cycle highs for Gold - surely Silver will follow through. Looks like it wants to test the $18.50-$18.70 level.. = £13?

However it's very overextended in the short term. Ordinarily I would look to be buying a tranch this week, but I think I'll wait for a bit of a correction.

The price action looks very encouraging to me. The buyers are coming back in after selloffs and pushing price back up. No one is talking about COT figures or being over-bought... A bull market climbs a wall of worry, the old saying goes. 

The dollar just broke down to new lows this morning, which should further establish the change in trend in USD which will drive gold higher this year. 

5 hours ago, Paul said:

I wonder if our resident technical analysts, chartists and those playing the markets saw this coming and profited from it ?

If that's a rference for me, then it didn't surprise me one little bit. Nothing goes up 5% a day for too many days in a row. I'm sure some day traders perfectly predicted and traded the breakdown but that is not personally my style and I prefer to operate on wider timeframe.

Classic TA suggests that the important numbers now are about $18.7 on the upside and $16.3 on the downside. Anything between is just noise while the market participants fight for control in the short term.

But opinions and predictions are 2 a penny, and the market doesn't care about mine, yours or anyone else's so DYOR and make your own plans as always.

46 minutes ago, HighlandTiger said:

Sorry@vand but you have much to learn too.

If you wait too many years before a price rise in pms any profit could be wiped out by inflation. What you really need is a few years at a low price then a year at a high price. Then repeat the cycle many times over your lifetime

Depends if you are looking to acquire more ozs, or happy with what you have. Personally I'm looking to double my ozs over the rest of this year, and doing so at £14/oz will cost me considerably more than it would at £11/oz.. And yes, there are up and downs in all markets, but with the huge spread in trading physical silver it is far better as a buy & hold vehicle. 

I appreciate that not everyone is in the same position as me, and some of you are holding as much as you want, or even looking to unload some. Timing is everything. 

For @webster I don't think even if silver went to £100/oz it would be significantly life-changing, so he should welcome the chance to buy more as cheaply as possible. What good does it do if prices double if you are only holding onto tube? It'll get you a free holiday.. but won't change your life.

Anyway, at the moment, even if you don't trust the official figures, you can't deny that there really is very little price inflation around..

1 minute ago, Webster said:

I hope so! Keep rising !!!

No! Much To Learn You Still Have.

We want precisely the opposite - for prices to stay low so we can acquire more on the cheap. If you only hold a few oz, what good does a price explosion to £100/oz do you? It'll buy you a holiday. Whoopie do. I'm looking to acquire a few hundred more ozs this year and a few thousand more ozs over the next few years - ideally for as little £££ as possible. 

Wow.

£12.12 | $17.33 now. 

Rocketship indeed. Gold still only $1256, so if & when Gold joins the party, silver could easily be in the $18s.

In terms of price in gold, silver at under 1/80th of an oz is about as big of a "no brainer" in the world of investment and stack building as you can get! 

In terms of fiats, I was hoping to be able to grab some silver at sub-£10, but now would consider a pullback to sub-£11 as a good buying opportunity. 

I think these prices may be a dim and distant memory before too long and we will all talk of the time when silver was on sale and talk about how we were buying it hand over fist when no one else was interested. At least my greed allows me to dream of such days to come..  

17 hours ago, Bumble said:

I've heard other technical analysts say that they are not trying to predict the price, only follow the trend, but I've never found this convincing. If you take a position in the hope of making a profit then you are predicting. You are positioning yourself so that a future rise (or fall) in price will result in you being better off, and that lies within the definition of predicting a rise (or fall). You don't know the current trend will continue; you are predicting that it will. The most that a TA can say is that they are ignoring fundamental information and predicting only on the basis of a trend or pattern. But trends and patterns frequently lack predictive power, just as much as fundamental factors do. TA's sometimes say their methods measure momentum or the crowd psychology of other investors. This may be true to some extent, but I doubt whether it amounts to much. I suspect it may be little more than a self-fulfilling prophecy: enough bandwagonners using TA will create their own momentum.

Maybe so, but no less disingenuous than any Fundamental Analyst who claim they never look at a chart.

4 hours ago, HighlandTiger said:

Are you really going to hold up Livermore as someone who was a success predicting the markets.

The same Livermore who lost every penny he amassed, was declared bankrupt and committed suicide.

Thanks for proving my point. No one can predict the markets . .. . end of story

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Livermore didn't try to predict the market... that was his whole thing. He traded on what the market was doing at the time. If it was going up he would be long. If it was going down he would be short.  He waited for trends to develop, got along for the ride, used profit from his last position as confirmation that the trend was still intact, and and then got out when the trend was no longer so...but one of the lessons he instilled was that he would never predicted where they would go because that is pitting your ego against the market which is always a losing proposition... he merely observed price & volume action then acted in line with the overriding trend.

@ApisMellifera

If you go onto the DailyReckoning Facebook page you can see the link, although when you click on it it seem broken, so I suspect they have taken it down for whatever reason. Maybe I'm reading too much into it.. but maybe not.

Anyway, it was by Michael Covel who will be a name familiar to anyone with an interest in trend trading, and basically said how Kiyosaki put out a "Buy Silver" recommendation in late 2011 when silver was still $32 but clearly after the peak and after the trend had changed, and furthermore how he is a media creation arising from his appearance on Oprah, his failed business ventures, and how his "rich dad" is also likely to be just a fictitious invention. Interesting stuff. DYOR as always

.. broken link

http://dailyreckoning.com/rich-dad-poor-fool/

44 minutes ago, HighlandTiger said:

Technical analysts talk more bovine excrement than the you tube experts. The only difference is that they stick different coloured lines over a chart and a great at after timing.

If this chart stuff actually worked the people creating them would be richer than Bill Gates

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Jesse Livermore WAS richer than Bill Gates (in comparative terms) , and he was primarily a TA.. and in an era where it took more than a couple of mouseclicks to buy or sell something.

loling at the hate for TA on here.

TA is not necessarily day-trading, and it isn't and either|or thing - it can be used in perfect harmony with fundamentals for timing purposes to make long term decisions. I have liked the fundamental case for silver but have steered clear of buying it until now because the technicals from late 2011-2015 have looked awful.

Or you can dismiss it and continue to take your tips from hucksters like Bob "2 Dads" Kiyosaki as @Paul eloquently called him who jumped on the bandwagon in 2011 AFTER the trend change and ridden it down to the bottom with him. Your choice. Michael Covel recently wrote about this on Daily Reckoning but it was pull down - no doubt Kiyosaki's lawyers have been on the blower.

For an example of EXCELLENT usage of TA in forming a long term picture, have a look at someone like Chris Aaron. He uses simple TA to form likely scenarios and long term forecasts which are far more well-formed that any wishy-washy Fundamentalists can put together.

Sorry it's USD price and getting away from the point of the thread, but relevant imo..

I'm tracking everything in a googlesheet which tells me I have acquired 483oz at an average of £14.30/oz in 3 months since I started stacking, mainly acquired through CelticGold & STG. Stack is quite diversified, with a balance of govt coins from the lowest premium maples/kangaroos up to lunar coins. Hoping to build up to ~1000oz by end of the year, though of course this will depend upon the buying power of the pound in my pocket. 

Argh.

Was going to buy more ozs yesterday but delayed it and now have to pay 3% more!

Technical analysts will tell you this is a serious technical breakout from the reverse H&S formation.

Next challenge is £12.40 level from Jan 2015... just a few more % away now.

Looking strong in GBP. A weekly close above USD $16 is the next mini hurdle we need to clear to develop the case for the bull market.

the miners are absolutely on fire, which is a very good sign that this is just the beginning.

Just ordered 10 of these 1.5oz silver Snow Falcons from the Canadian wildlife series. I think they are absolutely beautiful.

1.5oz is a very nice weight - the same footprint as a 1oz but half as thick again. Feels nice to hold something a bit weightier than 1oz.

12 hours ago, ApisMellifera said:

Just got one of these in the mail... (i know different topic).
but... if silver hits £1000000, I'll probably be paying with some of these or equivalent. lol.

Anyway...
I got this banknote out of curiosity (£2 on ebay) and to remind myself that hyper inflation could lurk around the corner, if we don't pay attention.
Zimbabwe was the latest nation that had a currency hyperinflation and went out of control in 2007-2009
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe

 

you don't even need to go back as far as 2009. Look at Venezuela right now. Country is falling apart and hyperinflation after decades of mismanagement finally coming to a head. When collapse comes and your creditors no longer want to play the game, it all goes to hell in a handbasket. 

Brexit talk has seen GBP getting sold down to levels not seen in a few years - you could view it as the GBP price of silver, or that the pound in our pocket is worth less. This is why we accumulate precious metals.. just wait until it kicks off on a global scale.