silenceissilver

On 17/07/2020 at 11:29, Wonger said:

Can you define exactly what you will consider a US Dollar reset to void the bet?

If a scenario occurs for the US Dollar, before the end of 2021 that is similar to what happened to the Venezuelan Bolivar, where a new currency, also with the name Bolivar (and in this case an additional appendix - but with fewer zeros) was introduced, the bet is void.

"The government announced on 7 March 2007 that the bolívar would be revalued at a ratio of 1,000 to 1 on 1 January 2008 and renamed the bolívar fuerte in an effort to facilitate the ease of transaction and accounting"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_bolívar#Bolívar_fuerte

So, if the US government makes the same announcement for the US Dollar (with or without an addition to the name of the new currency), before the end of 2021 (at any rate, not necessarily 1,000 to 1 like in the example above), the bet is void.

The reason for this restriction is that if they did that, e.g. at a rate of 100 to one, the spot price would (currently) be about 18 US Dollars without even changing its purchasing power.

Clear enough?

Deal?

50 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Can you define exactly what you will consider a US Dollar reset to void the bet?

Sure but I need to think about the exact definition. I'll post it this evening or tomorrow.

Just now, Wonger said:

No buying $500 Puts to Hedge, that is cheating 😉 Ha Ha

Can you confirm that we have a deal? Also, in case there is a Dollar reset (e.g. 10 old Dollars turn into one new Dollar), the bet is void.

Today I received a Liberty Head, current spot value $873.14 but under $200 before the end of 2021, according to @Wonger

1 minute ago, Wonger said:

Yes nice and simple will the LBMA on either fix quote below $500 before 31/12/2021 23.59 GMT😉

Deal

8 minutes ago, Wonger said:

We do not need charts for the LBMA Gold Fix price either 10.30 or 15.00 GMT 

LBMA gold fix at 10.30 or 15.00 GMT is fine for me. Deal?

42 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Being a Futures Trader for 22 years I may have seen some similar price charts😉

Deal?

29 minutes ago, jultorsk said:

Granted, thanks. 

Right - for both @Wonger and @silenceissilver; for avoidance of doubt, the US$500 (a.k.a., 'the bet') is specifically for current spot as quoted e.g., on goldprice.org? Seeing as most of us spectators probably do not have access to sophisticated trading terminals it might be interesting to specify a mutually agreed and impartial reference source in order to observe and potentially comment on this; in a way apples to apples. Would that make sense?

I usually use bulion by post but I'm flexibe about what chart to use.

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-price/world-gold-price/

7 hours ago, Wonger said:

No restrictions either Gold spot trades below $500 by the end of 2021 or it does not, its quite simple with no restrictions needed!

As @Chorlton said, if you are confident about your predictions you would accept these two restrictions.

1) The shorter the time frame, the bigger the fluctuations can be, that's statistics and applies for anything really. Thus it needs to be under 500 US Dollar for at least 30 minutes. You predict the spot price will fall under 400. If you don't accept that, you are not confident that your predictions are right.

I couldn't find it for gold right now but take this chart as example. If you zoom out a bit, you don't even see this hefty fluctuation:

2) In case the US Dollar is being reset and it's for example 10 old Dollars are one new US Dollar, the bet is void. Because technically you could win your bet in such a case, whereas effectively it would be new currency but with the same name - US Dollar -  no one holding gold would lose any purchasing power in this case - and that this would be the case clearly is an implication of your prediction or is it not?

2 minutes ago, TheApe said:

Can I do a bet Wonger won't send escrow 😂

 

I'm afraid, you won't find anyone to take on this bet.

10 minutes ago, TheApe said:

Who's going to escrow this bet?

Someone with at least 30 positive and no negative trading feedback, I'd suggest @Wonger

One further restriction: In case of a revaluation of the US Dollar the bet is void because we are talking about the purchasing power, aren't we and not  about the US government hyperinflating the dollar and then striking out a few zeros.

5 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Spot price anytime of the week before the end of 2021, deal?

Almost. It needs to stay under 500 US Dollars for at least  30 minutes so as to avoid a massive but short wave since they do occur for very short periodes sometimes, without even being visible on the same graph if you zoom out a bit. By the end of 2021 so that on January first 2022 we know who will have won, at the latest.

56 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Do you mean you will not agree to my end of 2021 time frame, is there a particular reason? 😁

End of 2021 is fine for me. Deal?

I offer a bet to anyone who might be interested:

If the spot price of gold falls under 500 US Dollars within a timeframe we both agree on, you will get 3 ounces of gold from me, as soon as the spot price falls under this mark. Should it not fall under this mark within the agreed time, I will get one ounce of gold from my counterpart in this bet. The basis is the spot price at the end of the week.

I will not agree to this bet, if the suggested time is too long because I couldn't be bothered to wait for my free ounce of gold for ages but as it will fall under 400 US Dollars soon anyway, I don't see an issue there. May I kindly suggest, by the end of 2020?

49 minutes ago, Lindeman said:

I agree @silenceissilver - not easy in the UK.  The UK auction houses are a better bet than the UK PM dealers for pre-33, but most of my recent half eagles like this one have been bought online from US sellers actually.  This one was via eBay from a seller with a good track record in US pre-33, which is at least a good sign.  I have sometimes been unlucky though - one time I bought a rarer 1916 S only to find out later it was a very good fake !  

Thanks for that info. I also thought about buying at a US dealer but is there no import fee on it? Also, I might get the odd numismatic pre 33 coins but generally I'm interested in the coins rather on the bullion end of the spectrum. Are UK auction houses any good for this?

27 minutes ago, TheApe said:

 

In a way I want gold to go up because I make some money.

But when it goes up I want it to go down so I can purchase some more. 

Im an odd man.

Same. But the good thing it, whatever way it goes, it's positive.

On 03/07/2020 at 23:30, Lindeman said:

Gold 1914 S half eagle. Upgrading my collection of these iconic coins, and the San Francisco ones will be my focus.  Always risky bidding on these as raw coins...so I hope this one works out OK, and grades well eventually.  Hoping for an AU58; am I being too optimistic? Details good on the headress and feathers😊. Photos from the seller. 

Where do you get your pre 1933 coins? There don't seem to be many, in the UK. Some Double Eagles at Chards, some overprized bullionish ones at bullion by post but not that much more.

1) No

2) I have bought the pro version because it measures all the way through the coins (small bars), the non pro version only so deep, I can't remember, maybe a quarter mm?

3) It is, however I managed to overlook the attached calibration disc (for the calibration of thickness) for a long time. Sometimes I'm annoyed it does work properly only with one of the two sensors, depending on the size of the coin. Thus, small coins don't always work properly under the bigger sensor but mostly that was due to the fact that I didn't have it calibrated for too long, I guess. Why does this matter? With the pro, there are two sensors at each sensor, one internal one and one above the coin, building a bridge around it, and the space for the smaller sensor is not big enough for capsules or holders.

4) Yes. The smallest coin I have is just over a tenth of an ounce,  a 10 Corona coin, the biggest ones one ounce (gold)/two ounces (silver), both work. The one ounce coins under the bigger sensor, the rest under the smaller one.

5) Yes

6) I only have the Sigma, so I can't compare it from own experience but there is gold analytics. Also see this thread about it:

I'm in the UK too, I had it imported from the US. It was sitting at customs for several weeks, that was quite annoying but it can also go through much quicker. It's a lottery with customs.

There is also a Slovenian site, selling it, too. As far as I know that's it for Europe, unless you buy a used one privately on Ebay or wherever. Personally, I try and avoid second hand electronics.

What else? There is a so-called bridge, a kind af attached very big sensor, for big bars. I don't need it, I have not bought it. Even for my silver, my biggest piece is two ounces, I'm not a PM bar guy.

Would I buy it again? Yes, no question

Why did I buy it in the first place? My very first gold coin was a fake (plated), I found out before I bought the Sigma, but it was a pain in the butt, specific gravity test, no certainty because of a lack of reference at the time, etc. Also I got tired of doing a specific gravity test for every new sovereign or other coin. Plus by now I have acutally once tried a specific gravity test again and it very much seems my cheap scale would need to be recalibrated but as it's cheap, you can't do it properly, just pushing a button on zeroing it doesn't seem to do the job properly.

Upper bar: The outer layer (you only have this one a the non pro version)

Lower bar: Measured all the way through.

Green: No fake

Orange: Questionable (you don't really get this, it's green or red in practice)

Red: Fake

What else: Measuring the dimensions - I have never bothered to do this with the Sigma

1 minute ago, Wonger said:

When Gold crashes through $1000 on its way to $385 this thread will go as quiet as my Bitcoin price about to plummet thread when Bitcoin crashes through $5000 where I have a stated target of $1200 on Bitcoin shorts 😁

Now it's 385, not 400 any longer? How deep can it go? Do you think it could get negative - you have to pay, if you want to sell gold? And how negative? Just 385$ or more, 5 digits negative maybe?

I have ordered something there recently and they sent me an email today "deal - valid only this weekend (as long as they have tese coins)"

I have looked at Atkinsons and Bullion by post to compare what these coins are now without deal but both currently don't offer it. So I'm not sure how good a deal it is, how much you'd pay elsewhere but I'll just post it here and if you are intersted in this coin, you can find out yourself.

It's in Germany, the postage to the UK was 24.90 Euros to the UK for me (for one gold coin), so the premium elsewhere would need to be respectively high to still get a good deal, if you live in the UK.

It's limited to 20 coins per coin or 40 coins altogether. Birds of Paradise 2019/18 for 24/25 Euros.

The offer is valid till today 8pm UK time or till they got rid of all coins.

https://www.gold-silber-muenzen-shop.de/modules.php?warp=search&view=gallery&q=Birds+of+paradise

They don't state what their price will be after that.

I have also got a Sigma, a pro, I'm very pleased with it. I ordered it form the US. There is a place, I think in Slovenia, that sells it, too.

They also have competitors with similar products and a wider range of testing kits.

Some are a bit cheaper. https://www.gold-analytix.de/

Just use deeple.com (it translates better than google translate) to get the descrpitions translated, if you consider buying one of them.

Edit: Actually ,they have a UK option anyway:

https://www.gold-analytix.de/en-uk

1 hour ago, InvestInCoins888 said:

That’s a counterfeit egg! 

It looks real to me but I'll do a specific gravity test.

Gold Price for May $1440?

Let's hope so.

Maybe 900 in GBP?