How is inflation effecting you in 2022?

[GoldDiggerDave]

7 hours ago, modofantasma said:

Spoke to a farmer in the UK this week.. 

So fertiliser prices are around £750 a ton which is up from about £250 last year... Fuel also. So with wheat barley etc that is produced in the UK these farmers have been selling last year's harvest which hadn't really been hit by these prices fully. This year's harvest (sold from summer this year through to about summer 2023) will have to bear these costs.

In addition some (smaller) farmers have been deciding to try and do without the fertiliser or reduce how much they're using... This will reduce their cost but also reduce their yield so potentially they'll have less income and money to buy next year's fertilisers and seed for the 2023 harvest. 

What's to say fertiliser prices won't go up again? Can see a fair few farmers getting squeezed unless grain prices rise quite significantly. 

Remember that fuel and fertiliser aren't the only costs to produce and also that a 2 or 3x increase in those won't directly mean a 2 or 3x increase in food price necessarily 

I was watching a video of a farmer in the US taking about reduced yields due to lack of fertilisers, very quickly it become economically unviable to produce crops.  With fertiliser increasing 3x and the availability likely to reduce in the sort term prices of produce could increase 6-10x. Once they are growing crops at reduced yields with much higher costs we are looking at exponential price increase. 

[Petra]

13 minutes ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

I was watching a video of a farmer in the US taking about reduced yields due to lack of fertilisers, very quickly it become economically unviable to produce crops.  With fertiliser increasing 3x and the availability likely to reduce in the sort term prices of produce could increase 6-10x. Once they are growing crops at reduced yields with much higher costs we are looking at exponential price increase. 

Mixed farming has the advantage. Pig muck, cattle muck, sheep rotated through on clover and root crops. Who needs artificial fertiliser.. or certainly not in the vast amounts that the agri barons regularly use. Shame I don’t still have chickens on the allotment.

[Stacktastic]

11 hours ago, sixgun said:

Heating was never built into the house so it would be quite an expense

Spanish dont do heating - especially central heating as it has historically always been hot. 
Best you get is a gas fire or electric heater in the bathroom. 

Tiled floors dont help if it does get chilly, but plenty of scope for solar and stuff like that. 

[sixgun]

24 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

Spanish dont do heating - especially central heating as it has historically always been hot. 
Best you get is a gas fire or electric heater in the bathroom. 

Tiled floors dont help if it does get chilly, but plenty of scope for solar and stuff like that. 

You are right Stacktastic - no heating - no gutters - no damp proof. It is still raining outside and there are rivers in the streets because they don't do drains.
But anyway i have lived through British winters with no heating when times were hard and no money for luxuries like that. i follow Wim Hof now so i see the cold as therapeutic. 

The Wim Hof Method is about reconnecting us - to ourselves, to others, and to nature. Because we wear clothes and artificially control the temperatures at home and at work, we've greatly reduced the natural stimulation of our bodies, atrophying the age-old mechanisms related to our survival and basic function.

[Stacktastic]

10% rise in a broadband package I only signed up for recently. 
T&C's hey.  

[Rains]

14 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

10% rise in a broadband package I only signed up for recently. 
T&C's hey.  

Investment they say ask them for a return on it if thats the case cheeky *****

[GoldDiggerDave]

@Stacktastic and remember all of the prices rises are net.  

With a likely increase of £350+ per month someone on minimum wage will now have to work another 6 days per month for effectively free to absorb these costs. That’s an earnings cut of 25%
 

Do you guys think interest rates will rise? Historically this  mechanism is used  to counteract inflation.   Nail families another £300-£400 on their mortgage?  

I have very selfish reasons for wanting a higher interest rate, but this will cripple most working people.  
 

It’s already got to the point where the basic wage is not enough to live a basic life. 

What happens on a Monday morning and people realise they can not earn enough to live?  Don’t know if there’s any employers reading this thread, but the question to you is, what are you going to do for your staff?  Are you going to increase their wages in line with real inflation? 

There are millions of working people looking down the barrel of financial armageddon, even if you are okay and think it won’t effect you the likely hood it will. 

 

[Stacktastic]

Got another one today! isnt this 25% increase or more??

Just literally fixed my mortgage for 10 years & reduced the term to 16 years.
Thanks @MancunianStacker who has really given me some sound assistance. 

2.09% fixed for that period is ludicrous if you as me, shame it ran out this year and not last LOL. 
A bit like a sound stock that continues on down after a huge drop I dont care - that piece of mind. 
 

Edited April 5, 2022 by Stacktastic

[Rains]

2 minutes ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

@Stacktastic and remember all of the prices rises are net.  

With a likely increase of £350+ per month someone on minimum wage will now have to work another 6 days per month for effectively free to absorb these costs. That’s an earnings cut of 25%
 

Do you guys think interest rates will rise? Historically this  mechanism is used  to counteract inflation.   Nail families another £300-£400 on their mortgage?  

I have very selfish reasons for wanting a higher interest rate, but this will cripple most working people.  
 

It’s already got to the point where the basic wage is not enough to live a basic life. 

What happens on a Monday morning and people realise they can not earn enough to live?  Don’t know if there’s any employers reading this thread, but the question to you is, what are you going to do for your staff?  Are you going to increase their wages in line with real inflation? 

There are millions of working people looking down the barrel of financial armageddon, even if you are okay and think it won’t effect you the likely hood it will. 

 

Seems like we are slowly reaching breaking point 

[Minimalist]

Breaking: Agustín Carstens, head of the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements admits World may be on cusp of new inflationary era

Quote

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/05/world-may-be-on-cusp-of-new-inflationary-era-says-central-bank-chief 

 

[FlorinCollector]

18 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

Breaking: Agustín Carstens, head of the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements admits World may be on cusp of new inflationary era

 

The only way out seems to be higher interest rates. This will just double cripple us the working class. You have had to spend all your money on rising costs and then interest rates rise and the little assets you own now become worth less. 

[Minimalist]

10 minutes ago, FlorinCollector said:

The only way out seems to be higher interest rates. This will just double cripple us the working class. You have had to spend all your money on rising costs and then interest rates rise and the little assets you own now become worth less. 

They (Banks) wont do it, they cant afford it, this is what myself and others have been saying for years. They will print more money or go into negative interest rates. Maybe even both? 

[CANV]

It was fun while it lasted.  Those lovely foreign fruits and veg.   But it’s back to turnips and potatoes now for Blighty.  Plus some sprouts …

on more serious note what vexes me by far the most,  is the freezing of tax allowances.  That’s a snake in a wagon rut move.  

[Roy]

@CANV, that's exactly what I was saying t'other day - seasonal fruit and vegetables. What ever you can get at the time.

No more avocado on toast.

 

[Petra]

20 minutes ago, Roy said:

@CANV, that's exactly what I was saying t'other day - seasonal fruit and vegetables. What ever you can get at the time.

No more avocado on toast.

 

Best get digging up you back garden and getting some veg in!!

[Roy]

What's good for planting this time of the year?

[Petra]

10 minutes ago, Roy said:

What's good for planting this time of the year?

Outside… potatoes, if weather ok, onions, shallots. Indoors I have chilliest, tomatoes growing, inside a range of flowers, cabbages etc. the good thing about grow your own is the different things you can grow that you don’t see in the shops or are very expensive. One packet of lettuce seed form50 p or a quid can give you lettuce all year

[Uksilverstackers]

As per Stacktastic above, inflation on inflation !!

 

The monthly cost of your plan will go up from your April 2022 bill. As set out in the terms of your agreement with us, this increase is the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate of 5.4% (as published in January 2022) to support the rise in our running costs and keep up with increased demand, plus an additional 3.9% to continue essential investment in our network as we expand coverage.
 

[Paul]

UK GDP affecting news

My favourite pasty locally has gone up from £1.99 to £2.19

Things are getting serious now! and I'm beginning to take proper notice of inflation 

[GoldDiggerDave]

I have spoken to a load of random strangers about this, the lady who works in the post office she does not know whats she's going to do only on minimum wage and her fuel bill has gone up £120 per month, she said she can't work more hours and and will find it hard to re budget especially when everything else is going up, food petrol etc.  She said when you are only earning minimum wage you don't have any spare money.

Not just about people on minimum wage (2 million workers)  there will be that again in the grey economy if not more. Normal working people who have been doing ok will be pulverised by inflation as they will not be able to contract quick enough, massive mortgage longer term finance lease on expensive cars etc, they won't be able to turn the taps off before they bleed out.   

Historically higher  interest rates are used to reduce inflation, I just can't see this happening not because it will hurt mortgage payers (the government does not give 2 craps about any of us)  It will accelerate national debt out of control.....Or is this the goal all along?  

 

 

[GoldDiggerDave]

@Paul One for you mate!
 

 

[Paul]

2 minutes ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

@Paul One for you mate!
 

 

Yeah love Kevin bridges, comedian of the normal working man

[Paul]

Pasty making  is the next YouTube skill getting taught this weekend

[papi1980]

My humble views 

The reality is that BoA (and FED, ECB, BoJ) are caught between the plate and the hammer. 
1) don’t increase rates sharply  —> you save borrowers;  inflation spreads to permanent 10-12% year changing people’s habits to spend quickly and raising velocity of money —> now at that time even if you reduce M1 or do qualitative tightening ( the money base), you (as Central Banker) can not do much to change spending habits. The best way for changing spending habits is raising interest rates so you start to save or change currency (pegging it to something). I haven’t even mentioned here the pressure you will have from Government and people, since the ruling party will want your head (Head of BoE) of a spike (with high inflation ruling party losses 100%)

2) now option 2 is also nasty, you decide to increase rates sharply (e.g. 2x 1.5% between Sept and Dec 2022) combined with Qualitative tightening (taking money out); —> you get first stock and bond market crash—> followed by property deals reducing due to very low affordability (you now have to chose for 1.2m for a house in London suburb with 7% interest) —> you get similar or probably even harder recession like 2008 but without bank defaults since banks are ok now. Similar period will be end 1970s with Volker increasing rates in the US to 15%. —> now the problem is that inflation will most probably continue to be 4-5% since the world is no longer globalised and a lot of the production will start to be done domestically with raw materials mostly procured from ‘unfriendly’ countries—> property stagnates or even goes down —> stock market is volatile (provably growing at 5-7 % since corporate earnings will be eaten by a combination of a) more expensive raw materials b) stronger demand for wage growth and lack of talent c) lack of cheap money; things like stock buyouts will disappear. That stage will be long enough (15-20 years) until a new global superpower emerges and the cycle starts again 
 

My bet is that the CB will try 1) and then capitulate to 2) with a twist of offering CBDC as a cure 

both ways PM is a better choice  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Paul]

5 minutes ago, papi1980 said:

My humble views 

The reality is that BoA (and FED, ECB, BoJ) are caught between the plate and the hammer. 
1) don’t increase rates sharply  —> you save borrowers;  inflation spreads to permanent 10-12% year changing people’s habits to spend quickly and raising velocity of money —> now at that time even if you reduce M1 or do qualitative tightening ( the money base), you (as Central Banker) can not do much to change spending habits. The best way for changing spending habits is raising interest rates so you start to save or change currency (pegging it to something). I haven’t even mentioned here the pressure you will have from Government and people, since the ruling party will want your head (Head of BoE) of a spike (with high inflation ruling party losses 100%)

2) now option 2 is also nasty, you decide to increase rates sharply (e.g. 2x 1.5% between Sept and Dec 2022) combined with Qualitative tightening (taking money out); —> you get first stock and bond market crash—> followed by property deals reducing due to very low affordability (you now have to chose for 1.2m for a house in London suburb with 7% interest) —> you get similar or probably even harder recession like 2008 but without bank defaults since banks are ok now. Similar period will be end 1970s with Volker increasing rates in the US to 15%. —> now the problem is that inflation will most probably continue to be 4-5% since the world is no longer globalised and a lot of the production will start to be done domestically with raw materials mostly procured from ‘unfriendly’ countries—> property stagnates or even goes down —> stock market is volatile (provably growing at 5-7 % since corporate earnings will be eaten by a combination of a) more expensive raw materials b) stronger demand for wage growth and lack of talent c) lack of cheap money; things like stock buyouts will disappear. That stage will be long enough (15-20 years) until a new global superpower emerges and the cycle starts again 
 

My bet is that the CB will try 1) and then capitulate to 2) with a twist of offering CBDC as a cure 

both ways PM is a better choice  

In layman's terms, " when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail "