The coming Gold crash

[HGr]

I wasn't mocking his opinion, he raises some interesting points and I hope he is right. Rather I was jokingly pointing out that he only pops in after a small dip to stir the pot, before disappearing again! 

 

[silenceissilver]

13 minutes ago, dga00 said:

I do not understand why people are making fun of a man's opinion.
This thread was started in March, when gold price took a small dive. And maybe, under "normal" economical circumstances, the price would have gone even lower for a short while.
But let's remember what happened in the mean time:
- PPP(payroll protection program)
- stimulus checks
- eviction moratoriums
- unemployment benefits
The FED alone expanded their balance sheet by 3 trillion dollars. Not to mention other central banks.

All that new, cheap money had to go somewhere.

The Fakedemic is, amongst other things (introducing slavery, aka NWO) a cover up for the reset. Already last year, I wrote on the silver forum about an expert that predicted the start of the economic collapse for 2020, since 2018 - Markus Krall, the guy who created the internal stress tests for 80% of German and 50% of the banks in the Eurozone - so hardly a random doomsday prophet.

If we get socialism aka slavery - and this is what the fakedemic is all about - the economic output will be tiny for as long as slavery lasts. Of course if this attempt is succesfull ALL assets lose value however as said - the fakedemic is also a cover up for the reset - so before full scale slavery the dollar would collapse and thus the very specific prediction of gold in Dollars is ridiculous. Also, he doesn't really believe what he says - he doesn't put his money where his mouth is. He declined a bet about his predictions on the basis that something I said about the FED would be wrong. AND - he is not to be seen here, when gold rises.

[KRO]

then have an opinion backed by facts, rather than a graph that tries to mislead the uninitiated
(since he never examines the other side of the trade)

by all means have an opposing view, but do not quote ridiculous extremes e.g. $385 or dollar index at 140 
in order to provoke replies

[Zhorro]

1 hour ago, dga00 said:

I do not understand why people are making fun of a man's opinion.
This thread was started in March, when gold price took a small dive. And maybe, under "normal" economical circumstances, the price would have gone even lower for a short while.
But let's remember what happened in the mean time:
- PPP(payroll protection program)
- stimulus checks
- eviction moratoriums
- unemployment benefits
The FED alone expanded their balance sheet by 3 trillion dollars. Not to mention other central banks.

All that new, cheap money had to go somewhere. And some "assets" went up in value, some didn't. It could have been, gold, silver, pharma stocks, technology stocks, real estate or any other class of asset. There is a chart on the FED site that shows a dramatic increase in home "ownership" in the US in the last few months. And I use quotes because if you took a loan to buy a house, you don't actually own it, in the full sense of the word.

Wonger may be proven right, after all. Because, let's not forget what gives value to gold. It's people's thrust that it will hold it's purchasing power, even after some major economic changes. And why should it? Can it feed the masses, or even a small group of people? Can it cure diseases? NO.
When push comes to shove, the majority of population will choose to live in a (fiat-driven) socialistic environment, even a communist one, where there is a sense of equality, over any other kind of regime, where previous PM savers have a (big) head start. So gold will have little value, at least for the first few decades of the new regime, and it will only be accessible to only a few people in the higher ranks. Not to mention the risk of confiscation.
Also, I hear a lot of PM stackers on Youtube that they will be able to use their coins/bars to barter essentials like water or food. In a near Mad Max scenario, you won't be able to do so because either it has already been stolen from you, or your "precious" metals will worth far less in the eyes of those who will be able to produce/procure goods.

Just because it's rare, does not mean it's valuable. And the perfect example for this is gold's neighbor on the periodic table, platinum. Platinum is over 10 times more rare than gold, and for the first decade of this millennium, it was slightly more expensive than gold. But when it's real life (industrial/auto) application switched to other metals, it's price started lagging.

So let's not make fun of a person for having an opinion and/or sticking to it. We may all be right, or we may all be wrong. Only time(s) will tell.

I agree we can have differing views, but there are ways of expressing those views...

I think he enjoys provoking comments – and so this is what you end up with.

He claims to be a futures trader with 22 years experience, and he was giving us a Masterclass on his gold trades that ended in June.  I was genuinely interested in this, but then, I don’t think I have seen a mention of the outcome!

When he started this thread on 24^th March 2020 about the coming gold crash, gold was gathering strength and its price was about $1,629.  It is now roughly $1,954, and so anyone who sold gold at that time would be down $325 per oz.

And do not forget his “Silver price is about to plummet” thread which was started on 25^th February 2019 when silver was about $15.95 an oz.  Silver is now about $23.29 an oz!

So, for someone whose job it is to deal with futures contracts, surely you have to be right more than once an economic cycle!

[Goldhooked]

22 minutes ago, Zhorro said:

He claims to be a futures trader with 22 years experience

For real?  Let’s be generous and say he started learning from his bedroom at 16, that would make him 38!!  No chance - the way he comes across he sounds like he is about 22 now so did his career start in the maternity ward 🤣

[Hennypenny]

I'm actually angry with Wonger for stopping me making some gold purchase when the price was only £1200 per oz. I truly believed in his prediction, as he seemed to have several + on his feedback.

[KDave]

10 minutes ago, Hennypenny said:

I'm actually angry with Wonger for stopping me making some gold purchase when the price was only £1200 per oz. I truly believed in his prediction, as he seemed to have several + on his feedback.

No one stopped you buying at £1200 but yourself. The lesson to learn here is not to take investment advice from the nutcases on the silver forum and take responsibility.

[AuricGoldfinger]

The nutcases on the silver forum 😂 is that all of us? Gotta be a bit nuts to treasure tiny shiny objects 😃

[HillWalkerDundee]

27 minutes ago, Hennypenny said:

I'm actually angry with Wonger for stopping me making some gold purchase when the price was only £1200 per oz. I truly believed in his prediction, as he seemed to have several + on his feedback.

Rule number 1 in life - don't trust grown ups, ever!

[Hennypenny]

7 hours ago, KDave said:

No one stopped you buying at £1200 but yourself. The lesson to learn here is not to take investment advice from the nutcases on the silver forum and take responsibility.

I am a newbie and trusted members on the silver forum. I relied on the feedback system. I'm now worried about buying precious metals from members.

[AuricGoldfinger]

🙄 

[mr-dead]

2 hours ago, Hennypenny said:

I am a newbie and trusted members on the silver forum. I relied on the feedback system. I'm now worried about buying precious metals from members.

Just wondering why you trusted the 1 person over the handful that disagreed with him

[KDave]

2 hours ago, Hennypenny said:

I am a newbie and trusted members on the silver forum. I relied on the feedback system. I'm now worried about buying precious metals from members.

You have lost nothing in reality because you didn't buy anything. Imagine if you had joined wonga and taken out a gold short at $1200; your ignorance and naivety saved you more than it hurt you 👍

As for trusting members in trades, its only a matter of time before someone is scammed on here, however I have not heard of any trouble yet buying or selling. Trading requires trust on both sides, taking someones opinion and using it as advice is another thing all together.

[Roy]

2 hours ago, Hennypenny said:

I am a newbie and trusted members on the silver forum. I relied on the feedback system. I'm now worried about buying precious metals from members.

Don't confuse feedback with reputation points.

@Wonger has zero feedback, no transactions reported.

He has 181 reputation points which means likes (and laughs).

😊

[motorbikez]

2 hours ago, Hennypenny said:

I am a newbie and trusted members on the silver forum. I relied on the feedback system. I'm now worried about buying precious metals from members.

Wonger is like some of the share gurus on here, they never actually show a buy & sell trade of of their own but talk as if they have great knowledge, some may have most don't. Basically use your common sense. One way to get a pretty good picture of the guys who sell on here is look at their sales feedback &  take it from there the feedback system works similar to ebay.

Personally I have bought & sold on here with no issues so you can be 99.9% confident dealing with sellers on here,  obviously someone with 0 or a few feedback points offering the most fantastic deal needs to be viewed with caution.

[Goldhooked]

59 minutes ago, mr-dead said:

Just wondering why you trusted the 1 person over the handful that disagreed with him

This!!  Literally no-one else agreed with Wonger (until the recent sock puppet account) and those openly disagreeing have combined reputation points in the thousands.  But for some reason @Hennypenny decided to listen to the one lone, heavily disagreed with opinion?!

Edited July 31, 2020 by Goldhooked

[Darr3nG]

Wonger did have a very pretty graph, though. Shiny!  

[Abyss]

12 hours ago, Hennypenny said:

I'm actually angry with Wonger for stopping me making some gold purchase when the price was only £1200 per oz. I truly believed in his prediction, as he seemed to have several + on his feedback.

Do you own research and due-diligence that forms a long term investing plan and strategy and stick with it. The Silver Forum place to have a banter, make some friends, do some trades and talk about our strategies and plans for preserving our purchasing power in a dignified and respectful manner with others.

@Hennypenny I would not reflect on the past and be upset the game is far from being over. For individuals that look at the past and kick themselves for "missing out" will continue to miss out in the future. I was worried about Corona Virus switch my entire portfolio from stocks into bonds on 14th January later on in March I had avoided the biggest falls in stock in shortest time frame the markets had ever seen and my technicals shouting at me that I should switch back but I listened and was influenced by all the doom and gloom on YouTube. I have missed out on 40% gains in equity markets and I am still in Bonds now (ICiCI Life money market funds pays 6.5% still not bad).

We all need to stop looking back at the rear mirror and pay attention to what is happening in the here and now.

Edited July 31, 2020 by Abyss

[Stacktastic]

 

On 29/07/2020 at 21:25, Abyss said:

I found @Wonger I want to say it took months of pain stacking research but I read an article on Forbes and the author is no doubt in my mind @Wonger.

Stay The Hell Away From Gold

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencelight/2020/07/26/stay-the-hell-away-from-gold/

In the real world @Wonger is....... drum roll please...........

"You want a better inflation hedge? Try stocks, whose earnings typically rise as inflation heats up."

He pretty much sums up his agenda about all this at the end. "forget gold (a proven inflation hedge for thousands of years) & buy into a grossly inflated, highly speculative system that is most probbaly destined to crash. You only have to look at the graphs to see that it does not make sense. I get his point, yes it will go back down again, but so will any market, especially property & stocks.

Thats the whole point, you ride them or just sit tight. He is very correct about buying when the price rises, but I think it still has a long way to go before it crashes back or resets at £1,200 or there abouts. Its like buying a Tesla stock now, it will probably go up a bit more, but it will crash heavily. sooner or later the market will rise, tesla should be a good forward facing company and you will at the venue least get you money back if not make some great profits, when Elon controls the human race LOL. 

These papers certainly have an agenda & are controlled by the financial elites. I cant see so many people being so clueless when it comes to commodities & precious metals. I cant find a single Youtube video that is not banging on about how mining is cool again after all these years. A very different story to when I started looking into this. 
 

17 hours ago, dga00 said:

I do not understand why people are making fun of a man's opinion.

I do agree and I think he is a bit fed up with some of the comments. We are never right or wrong especially in situations like this as it just cant be projected. We can however have a debate on it though and use the facts that we subjectively construct. Some of the predictions seem to be very speculative, hence the wind up comments, but I feel rather than mocking its more of a jibe. I bet if he turns out to be correct then we will all congratulate him.

I suspect there is also quite a push back on the fact that none of us want him to be right in the short term. Well I do actually as i dont have much gold as the price is too high, but many members have lots & are waiting for proper rally to sell and recoup very long standing (and patient) investments. 

13 hours ago, KDave said:

No one stopped you buying at £1200 but yourself.

Exactly. I do a lot of research with regards to this in order to get up to speed and try to pull as much information and then make an innformed decision based on all of it. An example of this was deciding not to touch the stock market & just sit and wait. Its flipping tempting with the 212 app, but asides from play shares to get used to it, im holding tight despite all the tpositive (I 4x my money) things i have read on it in the last 2 weeks. Annoyed Idid not get into gold ETF's in June as that would be a nice short term investment.   

Edited July 31, 2020 by Stacktastic

[TheApe]

In my opinion this thread should have been closed and Wonger banned a long time ago.

A different viewpoint is one thing. This thread is not that.

[Darr3nG]

27 minutes ago, TheApe said:

this thread should have been closed

I had a similar thought, but not to close the thread, rather update it with warnings around the speculative nature of the content. You often see similar warnings on YouTube content, about consulting an adviser etc. Personally, I've enjoyed the "banter" and some of the spin-off conversations.

Yes, we are all grown-ups, but with so many new members to the forum, just finding their way around, it would be unfair to expect them to read back over all 66 pages of content. Many will just read the opening post and a few responses - simply because it is one of the more popular threads on the forum.

I know that we are a mostly-friendly community here, just trying our best to help others and participate in our hobby / infactuation (delete as appropriate).

[r1lee]

21 hours ago, dga00 said:

I do not understand why people are making fun of a man's opinion.
This thread was started in March, when gold price took a small dive. And maybe, under "normal" economical circumstances, the price would have gone even lower for a short while.
But let's remember what happened in the mean time:
- PPP(payroll protection program)
- stimulus checks
- eviction moratoriums
- unemployment benefits
The FED alone expanded their balance sheet by 3 trillion dollars. Not to mention other central banks.

All that new, cheap money had to go somewhere. And some "assets" went up in value, some didn't. It could have been, gold, silver, pharma stocks, technology stocks, real estate or any other class of asset. There is a chart on the FED site that shows a dramatic increase in home "ownership" in the US in the last few months. And I use quotes because if you took a loan to buy a house, you don't actually own it, in the full sense of the word.

Wonger may be proven right, after all. Because, let's not forget what gives value to gold. It's people's thrust that it will hold it's purchasing power, even after some major economic changes. And why should it? Can it feed the masses, or even a small group of people? Can it cure diseases? NO.
When push comes to shove, the majority of population will choose to live in a (fiat-driven) socialistic environment, even a communist one, where there is a sense of equality, over any other kind of regime, where previous PM savers have a (big) head start. So gold will have little value, at least for the first few decades of the new regime, and it will only be accessible to only a few people in the higher ranks. Not to mention the risk of confiscation.
Also, I hear a lot of PM stackers on Youtube that they will be able to use their coins/bars to barter essentials like water or food. In a near Mad Max scenario, you won't be able to do so because either it has already been stolen from you, or your "precious" metals will worth far less in the eyes of those who will be able to produce/procure goods.

Just because it's rare, does not mean it's valuable. And the perfect example for this is gold's neighbor on the periodic table, platinum. Platinum is over 10 times more rare than gold, and for the first decade of this millennium, it was slightly more expensive than gold. But when it's real life (industrial/auto) application switched to other metals, it's price started lagging.

So let's not make fun of a person for having an opinion and/or sticking to it. We may all be right, or we may all be wrong. Only time(s) will tell.

I admire wonger in his conviction of his trade. Like I mention previously that gold $400 is quite possible, since anything is really possible, Bitcoin is at $11k. 

Imo, Gold was money a long time ago, it will never be money again. It's an asset class that is traded just like any other asset class.  Back to the point, gold has been regulated to be used as way to store wealth or hedge against inflation.  Now that is where wonger I believe went wrong. He was expecting a deflationary period in which would have sent the value gold down (assumption).  

There is no possible way we are going to see any deflationary period, even if covid19 did not hit. The US administration rhetoric on Chy-Na and thoughts of bringing home jobs might send the USD higher, but who in their right mind would think that would be deflationary. I can't wait to spend $4000 on an iPhone when an American is putting it together. I'll stop it at that, as there are many reasons why gold is not at $400 and is close to $2000.  That's another thread altogether.

Everything you have stated can be reversed on the USD. Can you eat the USD?  Can it by itself cure cancer? You are missing the point. Like I mention above, gold is a store of wealth and a hedge against inflation. How many Zimbabwean's and Venezuelan's would be better off holding onto PM's as a portion of their wealth vs their currency?  If they had PM's they would be able to trade it for some other form of fiat that people would accept or leave the country altogether and start somewhere else.  Their value of their FIAT literally went to $0 and from history, it tells you all FIAT eventually goes to $0.  For many of us who stack, that's what we believe in. One day the USD will collapse and a new currency will take its place and  at that point I would trade in my stacks for the new FIAT or whatever decides to take it place as a form of currency.  

Gold/silver  will provide you with the ability to make sure what your bought  yesterday, you can still buy tomorrow. Just like property and other inflationary hedges. Whereas you may need to pay $20 USD for a loaf of bread. The reason why the USD has been able to hold on for so long is that it's the world reserve and at one point it was backed by Gold.  $1usd 100 years ago could buy you what vs the same $1 today?  Oz of gold yrs ago could get you what today?  

If wonger would have been right, he would be gloating and you wouldn't see him stop.  So not surprised people have been making fun of him.  Especially since it would have been easier 3 months ago to say the trade was wrong.  We are at $2000 gold here with inflation about to kick in hard. Yet he still thinks $400 gold is possible.  Maybe so, time will tell. 

Edited July 31, 2020 by r1lee

[HawkHybrid]

18 hours ago, dga00 said:

I do not understand why people are making fun of a man's opinion.

 

everyone has a right to their opinion. everyone else has a right of opinion to

laugh at your opinion.

to be taken seriously, stop making predictions that are a complete joke.

 

HH

[MancunianStacker]

My nice shiny graph looking at the performance of Gold in £s over the last 50 years.

[Divmad]

4 hours ago, Abyss said:

Do you own research and due-diligence that forms a long term investing plan and strategy and stick with it. The Silver Forum place to have a banter, make some friends, do some trades and talk about our strategies and plans for preserving our purchasing power in a dignified and respectful manner with others.

@Hennypenny I would not reflect on the past and be upset the game is far from being over. For individuals that look at the past and kick themselves for "missing out" will continue to miss out in the future. I was worried about Corona Virus switch my entire portfolio from stocks into bonds on 14th January later on in March I had avoided the biggest falls in stock in shortest time frame the markets had ever seen and my technicals shouting at me that I should switch back but I listened and was influenced by all the doom and gloom on YouTube. I have missed out on 40% gains in equity markets and I am still in Bonds now (ICiCI Life money market funds pays 6.5% still not bad).

We all need to stop looking back at the rear mirror and pay attention to what is happening in the here and now.

Abyss, I hedged my bets in the market by buying into a select few Covid-19 plays, which I still own - Avacta, DDDD, GeneDrive - but also Gold explorers - GGP, Kefi, Cnr. It has saved my bacon, big time.