So, how did gold and silver do in 2021, and where do we go from here?

[Zhorro]

Looking at the charts below, it can be seen that gold and silver did not do well in 2021.

Gold is down 4.08%.

And silver is down 13.43%.

For the sake of completeness, I record that platinum is down 10.76% and palladium is down 19.87%! 

So, of the precious metals, gold is the least worst performer!

But we also need to remember that in the UK, recorded inflation is about 5%.  Therefore, in real terms, 2021 has really not been a good year for precious metals.

Yet, one would have thought that the omens would have been good for gold.

At the start of the pandemic in early 2020, the National Debt of the USA was about $23.5T – now after nearly two years it is $29.5T.

Meanwhile: “Global debt rose to a new record high of nearly $300 trillion in the second quarter [of 2021]... Total debt levels, which include government, household and corporate and bank debt, rose $4.8 trillion to $296 trillion at the end of June, after a slight decline in the first quarter, to stand $36 trillion above pre-pandemic levels.”  https://www.reuters.com/business/global-debt-is-fast-approaching-record-300-trillion-iif-2021-09-14/

The current very low interest rates have encouraged the taking on of cheap loans – something that is likely to get more expensive in 2022.

Maybe as a result of possible concerns about the US Dollar (and the de-dollarization moves by Russia and China), central banks have been buying gold: “Gold reserves at central banks currently stand at a 31 year high as banks lower their exposure to the United States dollar and increase the gold reserves they hold.” https://swarajyamag.com/business/why-are-central-banks-buying-gold  Yet this has not been enough to push up the price of gold.

So, any thoughts as to why precious metals did so badly in 2021? 

And will things turn around in 2022?

N.B. This thread is not wanting specific price predictions for 2022.

 

 

[Stuntman]

Reversion to the mean, perhaps, for gold and silver - given that they both went up in price pretty significantly in 2020.  Palladium even more so, given the last five years (ish) of price growth.

Platinum remains the sleeping giant, in my opinion.  I think it probably has the biggest growth potential compared to its current price level, but I have no idea what/when would cause a significant shift upwards.  I hope it stays relatively cheap during 2022, given the likelihood of Platinum Jubilee coins in the metal that I would like to buy.

I am also surprised that gold hasn't jumped upwards in price, given the economic conditions.  But that's fine if you are still looking to buy pieces for your stack or collection.  So I probably now want it to stay low-ish for another 4 years until the Tudor Beasts bullion coins and Great Engravers bullion bars have all been released and purchased...

Silver - I have no idea.  I have enough silver now in ETF form to benefit from any great price reset upwards, and will continue to buy the occasional 10 oz coin or bar that I like.

[motorbikez]

@Zhorro Interesting thread, the problem re PM prices gold & silver in particular is the FED. It is not in their interest for gold & silver to take off in price. They still want countries to buy their sh--ty fake bonds which are in reality no better than junk bonds, but the FED still has clout at the moment. & IMHO until China calls them out, this charade with PMs will continue. Basel 3 may allow gold to rise somewhat this year but I don't think it will make a huge difference to prices to the upside.

As long as the US government tolerate (& it is in their interest to do so) the likes of JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs etc etc to take the p--s ,this scam/manipulation re PM's will go on.

[GoldDiggerDave]

We see people saying PM’s are manipulated but it does not change the prices. It’s like continually saying politicians are crooks….we know!  Just by revealing that fact won’t change a single thing. 

I’ve been looking at many different projections some look grim for gold for the next few years while others are more  buoyant.   
 

If gold goes sub 1k  would it be a bad thing?  I’d buy an extra 15-20oz per year at those prices.  
 

For me I can see the spread on physical gold getting more expensive to the point over the next few years it could become detached from spot like silver is today.  
 

We will have to see how the interest rates are in 2022 as this normally has an effect gold, what’s your prediction for BOE interest rates by the end of 2022? If it were to get past 3.5-4% I can see many mortgage payers and people  who rent in serious trouble.

One final thing, Im amazed Rishi has not slapped VAT and CGT on gold yet.

 

 

Edited January 1, 2022 by GoldDiggerDave

[Oldun]

I remember only a few years ago (2016) that folks here were worried about the dropping price……at under £750/oz…………you pays yer money, you takes yer choice……

Edited January 1, 2022 by Oldun

[Midasfrog]

Looking at a one year period for metals is a time frame that is to small , much better to look at the wider picture and look at a time period of between 5 to 10 years 

This will then help take into account any unusual high or low swings , there was high swing during the early days of the pandemic.

Over a period of 5 years gold has performed well with an increase of 43.92 % 

[HerefordBullyun]

15 hours ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

We see people saying PM’s are manipulated but it does not change the prices. It’s like continually saying politicians are crooks….we know!  Just by revealing that fact won’t change a single thing. 

I’ve been looking at many different projections some look grim for gold for the next few years while others are more  buoyant.   
 

If gold goes sub 1k  would it be a bad thing?  I’d buy an extra 15-20oz per year at those prices.  
 

For me I can see the spread on physical gold getting more expensive to the point over the next few years it could become detached from spot like silver is today.  
 

We will have to see how the interest rates are in 2022 as this normally has an effect gold, what’s your prediction for BOE interest rates by the end of 2022? If it were to get past 3.5-4% I can see many mortgage payers and people  who rent in serious trouble.

One final thing, Im amazed Rishi has not slapped VAT and CGT on gold yet.

 

 

When tony blair gets a knighthood thats all you need to know, then yoiu know the whole world is rigged.

[GoldDiggerDave]

24 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

When tony blair gets a knighthood thats all you need to know, then yoiu know the whole world is rigged.

My point exactly, just by pointing out the fact these MP’s and Lords are total crooks and it’s all jobs for the boys dose not change anything revealing the fact. 
it’s a self deafening loop. 

[HerefordBullyun]

3 hours ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

My point exactly, just by pointing out the fact these MP’s and Lords are total crooks and it’s all jobs for the boys dose not change anything revealing the fact. 
it’s a self deafening loop. 

A picture paints a thousand words.

The honours system should be scrapped. 

Lets go Boris/Brandon! 168000 people have signed this in 24 hours

https://www.change.org/p/the-prime-minister-tony-blair-to-have-his-knight-companion-of-the-most-noble-order-of-the-garter-rescinded?recruiter=false&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=psf_combo_share_initial&recruited_by_id=92c84ee0-6b1c-11ec-a318-a5ef95177dcd

And then theres this...... Anybody else wonder why politicians are so loathed

https://chng.it/JQqcWPgqsz

Edited January 2, 2022 by HerefordBullyun

[Oddjob]

I'd be interested to hear from UK / Euro member if they saw Au/Ag margins (retail and secondary) increased during 2021.

We've seen some upwards pressure (best described as margins remaining thick in a down spot market) in Aust on some silver coins and the secondary market price for the dear old bullion sov...if you can find them (retail or secondary) one has blown out.

[Tn21]

I blame the silver squeeze to an extent, ag hits or is just shy of 30usd then gets smacked down  4+ bucks the following weeks and months. It was great to follow at the time as I thought silver would move similar to AMC / GameStop momentum. Wishful thinking. 

 

The wall Street bets guys / silver squeeze did bring in a lot more eyeballs into the silver scene and physical silver I'm sure will have its day.

Edited January 4, 2022 by Tn21

[ArgentSmith]

Silver stackers have always suffered from spinach hands, I still believe Silver is the "best value" PM and no doubt it's day will come again.

[HawkHybrid]

42 minutes ago, Tn21 said:

I blame the silver squeeze to an extent, ag hits or is just shy of 30usd then gets smacked down  4+ bucks the following weeks and months. It was great to follow at the time as I thought silver would move similar to AMC / GameStop momentum. Wishful thinking. 

 

The wall Street bets guys / silver squeeze did bring in a lot more eyeballs into the silver scene and physical silver I'm sure will have its day.

 

the difference between the gamestop short squeeze and the wall street silver short squeeze is night and day.

people doing the gamestop short squeeze actually knew what they were doing and did the maths.

the wall street silver short squeeze was made up by wannabes who collectively are so clueless that they don't

even know what the term 'short squeeze' actually means. they rely on association by using names that sound

similar and the 'anybody promoting physical silver can do no wrong' crowd defending them.

just look at all those on the forum that still cling onto 'anybody promoting physical silver can do no wrong', still

trying to defend them after they've scammed people into buying physical silver that has dropped over 20% in a

year. but then again it's not them being scammed of 20%+, they only know to complain when the yearly inflation

rate is 6%.

silver will have it's day, only when it is ready. and not when some ignorant upstart thinks that they can 'command'

it shoot to the moon.

 

HH

[Coverte]

 

[harrygill111]

Good thing physical did a lot better than spot - it'll be hard to forget seeing regular old bullion silver going for £34+ an oz last year 

[harrygill111]

It was a turning point for me, most of my stack used to be silver and gold bullion bars because my mindset was focused on the underlying metal. But I had better fortune offloading coins and fractional gold albeit with more effort. Beyond the metal price, I think it was a combination of them being smaller and more affordable, the supply squeeze pumped up the price of physical and there just seem to be more people hunting around trying to fill gaps in collections. + some numismatic add's. 

In the short term I think with Russia and China doing more trade in gold and banks continuing to print/giveaway money, demand for gold will remain high. I'm stacking for my kids so it doesn't really matter what happens in the short term, but the future of taxation and some ideas floating around on CGT are quite worrying! 

Edited January 4, 2022 by harrygill111