Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[Foster88]

I think one thing that I haven’t seen discussed recently is that in recent years, only five years ago for example, in 2018 the gold price was circa £900 - £1,000 an oz.

Sovereigns were £230 ish.

Half Sovereigns were £110 ish.

Give or take a few pounds.

Yes, that was 2018.

The gold price has slowly risen, dropped slightly, risen again, dropped slightly again. You get the picture. The charts will show it.

The point I’m trying to make is that it’s a new, new price. I see comments on here about ATH prices but it doesn’t really mean anything, because it will usually drop again slightly, before gaining again before dropping. So the new ‘normal’ price is always going up and everyone has to get used to it.

People who are waiting for sub £1,200 or even sub £1,400 have a long wait. I maybe wrong but I don’t think we’re going back there anytime soon.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Foster88

[jultorsk]

Agreed the forum trade activity is severely subdued.

I happen to follow a certain large US auction house from time to time and they seem to have no difficulty selling all sorts of coins like there's no tomorrow. E.g., around Coinex I was attempting to sell here an 1957 MS64 NGC for a reasonable(ish)? GBP430 and received not a single inquiry. On Monday this week someone paid $900 (GBP745) for the same grade in the US (not my coin).

 

 

[Foster88]

30 minutes ago, Roy said:

It's almost like folk are embarrassed to be asking such a price!

'£1650 for a Brit? They'll never pay that!'

Look at what the dealers are asking, and work from there 👍

I don’t quite understand how dealers are weathering this ‘storm’.

If gold isn’t selling at spot on here.

How are they selling gold plus 3-4%+ spot?

Edited October 26, 2023 by Foster88

[silversky]

I think it's natural on the forum for people not to wish to buy after a period of rises.  But once things have stabilised in the paper markets, the physical prices will creep up to align as people begin to accept a new normal.  Joe public is mostly completely oblivious to this forum.  Members here are savvy buyers, many don't wish to buy at ATH, but that'll change again if this rise in price becomes the new normal.  It always has.

When there are drops in the paper price, the physical price tends to remain stubbornly high for a bit, until sellers are forced to revisit their price after a failure to make a sale.  In short, it's normal.

[silversky]

Here's the monthly chart.  Find me a bigger candle from open to close.  If this closes out at the end of the month, at or above where we are now, it will be the single biggest monthly candle in years.  It would be extremely bullish.  But it may all collapse prior to the end of the month, such a large candle is uncommon to say the least.

[ant1882]

£1645!

[SidS]

11 hours ago, Earthmetal said:

I don't get the argument that WHEN gold & silver increases in price no-one will buy it. Also that only small coins will sell not large ones. It's just cobblers. It's already way more expensive than it was say five years ago but people still buy it.

If we accept it roughly follows inflation, and that wages & prices roughly follow inflation, then when a 1oz coin becomes 'worth' £2,000 it will seem (again) roughly the same as it did at £1500. Likewise a £480 Sovereign will appear a similar pro-rata value as it does now.

Agreed.

They said no one would buy sovereigns once gold passed £1000 per oz mark.

If you've been around long enough not only do you see patterns, but also new "can't go beyond this" points. It's all relative.

[SidS]

4 hours ago, Foster88 said:

I think one thing that I haven’t seen discussed recently is that in recent years, only five years ago for example, in 2018 the gold price was circa £900 - £1,000 an oz.

Sovereigns were £230 ish.

Half Sovereigns were £110 ish.

Give or take a few pounds.

Yes, that was 2018.

The gold price has slowly risen, dropped slightly, risen again, dropped slightly again. You get the picture. The charts will show it.

The point I’m trying to make is that it’s a new, new price. I see comments on here about ATH prices but it doesn’t really mean anything, because it will usually drop again slightly, before gaining again before dropping. So the new ‘normal’ price is always going up and everyone has to get used to it.

People who are waiting for sub £1,200 or even sub £1,400 have a long wait. I maybe wrong but I don’t think we’re going back there anytime soon.

I don't disagree with anything you've said. My concern with buying gold at the moment is the answer to the following question:

Are the gains in gold since 2018 natural growth or are we in a gold bubble?

Before anyone throws conflicts etc at me as examples of pressures on gold. There's been conflicts all through the late 20th century, so they come, they go. The question is, are we in the 1970s/2000s phase where gold is heading north, or are we in 1980-81, about to stare at a repeat of 1982-1999?

My gut instinct is telling me we are in bubble territory. I expect it will go higher, maybe quite a bit, but I don't expect the gains to hold. I expect a crash followed by a loss in confidence.

Much like people feel about silver.

I know, I'm bearish on gold in the long term.

Edited October 26, 2023 by SidS

[AuricGoldfinger]

People need to remember the forum isnt the market. It’s a very very very small niche part of the market, like 0.0000000000000000000001% - probably a LOT more 0s after the decimal point.
 

People on here want bargains, watch the spot price religiously and act like a £5 drop is the “dip” theyve been waiting for (myself included)

I always have to comment when i see “who will buy at these prices!?”

Dealers just increase their spread.

People, organisations, countries are buying. That’s why it’s going up.

 

[flyingveepixie]

1 hour ago, SidS said:

I don't disagree with anything you've said. My concern with buying gold at the moment is the answer to the following question:

Are the gains in gold since 2018 natural growth or are we in a gold bubble?

Before anyone throws conflicts etc at me as examples of pressures on gold. There's been conflicts all through the late 20th century, so they come, they go. The question is, are we in the 1970s/2000s phase where gold is heading north, or are we in 1980-81, about to stare at a repeat of 1982-1999?

My gut instinct is telling me we are in bubble territory. I expect it will go higher, maybe quite a bit, but I don't expect the gains to hold. I expect a crash followed by a loss in confidence.

Much like people feel about silver.

I know, I'm bearish on gold in the long term.

No bubble.   Conflicts aside, the world is still in a fecked up mess, much of which would seem to those with a cynical eye to have been deliberately engineered.  Take your pick of scenarios and analyse till your heart's content, they've all been discussed elsewhere and continue to be discussed at length.

It's all reflected in the price of gold. Thus has it been ever so....

Edited October 26, 2023 by flyingveepixie

[9x883]

I think there is some thought of a bubble here, if you look at the price of gold throughout the beginnings of the Ukraine war. However, given the subsequent collapse of several big banks and another escalating war tied to countries supplying vast quantities of oil to America, this may not follow the same trend.

[Paul]

8 hours ago, gji25 said:

If it comes to it you dont buy it.  You barter with it 🙂

Or you just take it because 'reasons' in wokery looney lefty utopia-world 

[flyingveepixie]

It all only ever goes one way in the longer term.   It might have moments where it seems to drop again, ie the dips, but it always recovers and climbs that wee bit higher.  You have to think a bit longer term than 6 months or a year.  Look at the 10 year and 25 year curves below and ask yourself if we're in a bubble..?   The big spike in 2020 was caused by the covid scam.  It fell again, but not as far as previous lows, and now it's even higher again. The pattern is there for all to see.

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by flyingveepixie

[SidS]

Look at the trench between 2012 and 2016 - I remember the sentiments about gold then, I think we are heading for a spike, a trench of a few years and then up again.

You can see the bubbles on the graphs: 2011-2012 and 2020.

It's the slow persistent growth you want to see: 2016-2018 for example.

[flyingveepixie]

3 minutes ago, SidS said:

Look at the trench between 2012 and 2016 - I remember the sentiments about gold then, I think we are heading for a spike, a trench of a few years and then up again.

You can see the bubbles on the graphs: 2011-2012 and 2020.

It's the slow persistent growth you want to see: 2016-2018 for example.

Indeed. There are peaks and troughs.  There always will be, but the inevitable and constant movement over the long term is up.  Consider it from the point of view of currency devaluation if you prefer.   All fiat currencies eventually return to their intrinsic value, which is zero, and as the buying power of a currency falls, the price of gold rises accordingly.   In truth, the price of gold never really changes but rather it is the purchasing power of the £ or $ in your pocket which reduces.

[SidS]

1 minute ago, flyingveepixie said:

Indeed. There are peaks and troughs.  There always will be, but the inevitable and constant movement over the long term is up.  Consider it from the point of view of currency devaluation if you prefer.   All fiat currencies eventually return to their intrinsic value, which is zero, and as the buying power of a currency falls, the price of gold rises accordingly.   In truth, the price of gold never really changes but rather it is the purchasing power of the £ or $ in your pocket which reduces.

Agreed.

Long term (10 years plus) the trend is upwards.

It's when the gold price is flat that you want to be buying, not when it's rising. Now is a good time to either hold or sell imho.

[9x883]

As @flyingveepixiesaid, if your buying for the long term, doesn't matter. Just a store of wealth after all, and something nice to look at🙂

[9x883]

No one will be buying this weekend if this keeps up!😂

[bobski]

America/the west are always starting wars and always have. However, more recently America are starting wars without finishing their last one. Add the fact that America are happy to be at war with potentially 5 or 6 countries at the same time if necessary AND so much being held up by the US dollar/petro-dollar, it’s all a house of cards ready to fall. Joe Biden is poking the house of cards in fact

[HerefordBullyun]

Gold just his 2000 on the comex price 1990 Spot. This could be head bump or a break through point now...

[flyingveepixie]

2 minutes ago, 9x883 said:

No one will be buying this weekend if this keeps up!😂

Sometimes you can still find a bargain if you scratch around and keep your eye on the sales page.  Depends if someone who desperately needs to sell comes along at the right moment. 

[Paul]

Just now, flyingveepixie said:

Sometimes you can still find a bargain if you scratch around and keep your eye on the sales page.  Depends if someone who desperately needs to sell comes along at the right moment. 

Depends if @James32 has slept in to 

[SidS]

13 minutes ago, Paul said:

Depends if @James32 has slept in to 

He missed out James33 got to it first. 😁

Edited October 26, 2023 by SidS

[iggypop]

I do like my coins, just need 2 of these to make a round number £53 

Then up up & away 👌🤣

[MBTPSilver]

£1,648! I think the previous record could be broken today by the looks of it.