Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[HerefordBullyun]

George gammon reckons this commodity boom cycle will last until 2030. So its wise to keep cost averaging and maybe cash in in about 5 years time

[gji25]

58 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

 

TL:DR - The global economy and major currencies are in a level of turmoil not seen since the 1930s (Great Depression). Rising geopolitical tensions and various canaries are the inevitable consequence of intractable economic problems. The media and general population are more acutely aware of these factors than at any time in the recent past. Both macro and technical analysis leads to an inevitable conclusion of a commodity super-cycle and boom of precious metals. All of this has come into focus in the past couple of weeks combined with the canaries chirping and a greater expectation of (premature) Fed rate cuts alongside increasing political pressure both in the UK and US to make those cuts.

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If gold breaks £1956 today at 4pm UK time then falls off a cliff and drops £55-70 before weekly close, we should all be very suspicious!

There are numerous reasons why gold is going up from macro to technical, we're still well short of the nominal ATH never mind inflation-adjusted ATH (>$5000)

If you're asking why specifically this week and today, well, many reasons. Let's start with a simple one - the general pattern is to buy on Thurs-Fri to protect yourself over the weekend when markets are closed. Check the gold charts from April 11th-19th. Nobody wants to be in the situation where they need gold but can't buy it. Selling often resumes on Monday as traders transition to more risky assets to seek returns during the week before fleeing to safety again at the weekend

No single factor like war or regulatory changes in China but a trifecta of recession fears, global macros and central bank actions:

1) Just about every major company is laying off staff, slashing prices, divesting commercial real estate, including crucially the Magnificent 7 (Tesla, etc) and other mega-cap firms like McDonald's, Walmart, Tesco, etc. All reporting a slowdown in sales. We have Buffett recently selling billions of Apple shares, the richest men in the world and the CEOs of major firms cashing out stock like they're expecting an apocalypse. There are a number of indicators that the market has peaked and now is the best time to sell risk-on assets. You have to do something with your money and your choices are between Treasuries (US) and Gilts (UK), Yen, Swiss Francs and precious metals. IDK why people still consider Yen a safe haven when her destruction is being orchestrated. Historically gold (and silver) outperform all of the aforementioned. If we were to retake the 2024 ATH in gold that would yield better returns in a short period of time (this week perhaps) than the annual return on government securities

2) Various global macro factors - global recession, anaemic growth even in EMDE (Emerging Markets, Developing Economies), banking fears, bankruptcies and delinquencies amongst both commercial and retail customers. A decline in hiring/increase in lay-offs along with divestment of commercial real estate will crank up the pressure on the banks exposed to these sectors - mostly low and mid-cap banks in the US and Europe. A few banking wobbles is always positive for risk-off assets with precious metals being the premiere choice, gold being the benchmark

3) Fed rate cuts/US election/civil war in the USA. The expectation for rate cuts has shifted from November to September. That may not sound like much but it's not so long ago that November (68%) was seen as optimistic if you were yearning for cuts, now the CME figures are September (68%) and November (80%) for odds of easing. Some people worry about Trump but this is mostly media hype and lefty jealousy/vengeance. The figures even from CNN watchers show the American public have more faith in Trump when it comes to the economy than Biden. The Biden - Obama - Clinton Administration is the worst thing that's happened to the planet in decades. 

CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group

Here are some charts that give context to the global slowdown, recession and war (or black swan/major geopolitical event) fears:

1) Consumers are tapped out. This is an horrific graph for the consumer and corporations that rely on robust consumer spending like the Magnificent 7. The canaries are going bananas about these two graphs, toxic fumes accumulating:

 

 

 

 

2) Concentration of largest stock vs 75th Percentile compared with the Great Depression (major canary):

 

3) Banking fears across the globe including the US and China:

 

If we remove the BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program) then small banks have insufficient reserves to meet regulatory requirements/stress tests:

 

 

Commercial debt is fast approaching shitshow status posting the worst figures since 9/11:

 

 

4) Anaemic global growth, worst for 30 years:

 

 

 

5) The largest market in the world (Chinese real estate ~ $50 trillion vs USA's ~ $30 trillion) is in freefall. A 2008 event is happening in slow-motion in China and has been unfolding for several years now (Evergrande, etc):

 

 

6) Prolonged and significant yield curve inversions - The yield curve has been inverted for +500 days. This has only happened 3 times since 1920; • 1929 • 1974 • 2009. Each time markets declined MORE than 50%. Massive canary:

 

 

7) Black Swans/major geopolitical events are often predicted by the charts above and reflected by the chart below. We're currently running well above 100. Basically when the economy is toast and all other options have been explored, the final solution (excuse the pun) is war. The Great Depression of the 1930s, which some indicators today are mirroring, was "solved" by WWII, it did not resolve itself via regular economic forces:

 

 

CONCLUSION:

The why this week and why today is essentially the sheer volume of different canaries all chirping at the same time combined with the media recognition of such. It's getting harder and harder to hide the fact the global economic system is in turmoil. The primary cause of all of the problems is the borderline insane fiscal and monetary policies being pursued by the USA, Europe, China and Japan. They have destroyed the major currencies by emptying the tank to delay the inevitable major recession and market corrections for shot-term political gains.

The last of their stimulus lost its effectiveness when inflation in the west started to go crazy. There are no more tools in the box to stop the collapse of major currencies except for keeping rates high and allowing a controlled recession to re-balance the unjustified growth and liquidity we experienced since 2008 but more acutely, since covid.

Nobody wants to be left holding the bag if and when the major currencies tumble (like the Yen in Japan) and when the stock market bubble pops. The concept of de-dollarization is global and it refers to the collapse of ALL sovereign currencies with the USA being the LAST domino to fall. We've witnessed this by gold taking ATHs in other major and minor currencies before the ATH is mirrored by the USD. When the music stops the only seats you want to be sitting on are defensive stocks (farming, healthcare, consumer staples, utilities, weapons) and PRECIOUS METALS/commodities.

We have entered a commodity super-cycle that is set to last for a decade or more. This is just the beginning of the ascension of hard currency which will mirror the collapse of fiat and digital currencies which have arbitrary and manipulated valuations. Gold and silver sniff out the BS and provide a stable metric of spending power and wealth. It doesn't matter what a nice suit and pair of shoes costs in USD or BTC terms, we know a smart business outfit + accessories for a man costs an ounce of gold, just as it has done for centuries and millennia, since the time of the Romans

The recent price action in metals is merely a reflection of the chickens (canaries) coming home to roost and people/markets opening their eyes to these realities

 

 

[Thelonerangershorse]

4 hours ago, Orpster said:

I was able to continue working all the way through but from home, which I am still doing to this day as my employer realised productivity did not drop at all so sold all their offices

At least untill your employer realises that If you can work form home, a person in India can work from their home for half the cost.

[Gruff]

5 minutes ago, Thelonerangershorse said:

At least untill your employer realises that If you can work form home, a person in India can work from their home for half the cost.

Nope, depends on the interaction with the customer. I've worked at places where they tried that and it failed miserably

[Agaupl]

4 minutes ago, Gruff said:

Nope, depends on the interaction with the customer. I've worked at places where they tried that and it failed miserably

I’ve changed many providers for exactly this. No good if you can’t understand and be understood. 
 

pretty funny how Yorkshire, Newcastle area  and Edinburgh get a boost due to the ‘trust worthy’ accent though 🤣
 

scouse call centres not so much 

Edited May 10 by Agaupl

[James32]

2 minutes ago, Agaupl said:

I’ve changed many providers for exactly this. No good if you can’t understand and be understood. 
 

pretty funny how Yorkshire, Gordy and Edinburgh get a boost due to the ‘trust worthy’ accent though 🤣

 

32 minutes ago, Agaupl said:

Got to collectors wanting a trade? Last call. 

Pretty sure you're not an easy customer. 

Spunk englaise, please.

[Chronos]

As The Dollar Falters, Gold Becomes Insurance, Not Speculation:

https://mises.org/mises-wire/dollar-falters-gold-becomes-insurance-not-speculation

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

14 minutes ago, gji25 said:

 

 

 

 

 

[Agaupl]

2 minutes ago, James32 said:

 

Pretty sure you're not an easy customer. 

Spunk englaise, please.

ask anyone, I’m pretty easy.. never an unsatisfied client so to speak. 

Edited May 10 by Agaupl

[Thelonerangershorse]

20 minutes ago, Agaupl said:

I’ve changed many providers for exactly this. No good if you can’t understand and be understood. 
 

pretty funny how Yorkshire, Newcastle area  and Edinburgh get a boost due to the ‘trust worthy’ accent though 🤣
 

scouse call centres not so much 

And what's the difference between calling India and calling yorkshire these days??

[Gruff]

7 minutes ago, Thelonerangershorse said:

And what's the difference between calling India and calling yorkshire these days??

Cheaper calls to India  

[Orpster]

53 minutes ago, Thelonerangershorse said:

At least untill your employer realises that If you can work form home, a person in India can work from their home for half the cost.

UK Government contract so it cannot be off-shored, if they could they would have already as I work for a US IT services firm that offshore everything they can

 

[AuricGoldfinger]

The final piece of the puzzle….

 

 

Also had to laugh at this. “Most houses have watches like these lying around…”

yes pateks are so commonly lying around!

[Roy]

2 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

George gammon reckons this commodity boom cycle will last until 2030. So its wise to keep cost averaging and maybe cash in in about 5 years time

So I've only got until half past eight to buy more sovs?

😢

Edited May 10 by Roy

[Petra]

1 hour ago, AuricGoldfinger said:

The final piece of the puzzle….

 

 

Also had to laugh at this. “Most houses have watches like these lying around…”

yes pateks are so commonly lying around!

Whip out grandads teeth whilst he’s snoozing 🤔😮😁👀

[Petra]

£1900🤔close but no 🍌🍌🤷🏼‍♂️ maybe next week……🙈

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

20 hours ago, ZRPMs said:

Out of sheer boredom I've just calculated that if the gold price could just get up to £2,197 an ounce. At spot I could settle the rest of my BTL mortgages with my gold or if silver got to £56.29 an ounce. Food for thought folks. See what you can do for us.

By the way this port didn't last that long. but then again in pint glasses I suppose it wouldn't.   

 

[ZRPMs]

3 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

 

I'm not fekin Ginger

[James32]

4 minutes ago, ZRPMs said:

I'm not fekin Ginger

 

27 minutes ago, treetop1280 said:

F kin desperate , I’m f kin seething , what the f am I meant to do , she’s about 7 foot , skinny as f uck , so she will be quick and her reach is longer ,  , ahhh f uck it , I’ll do a Mike Tyson and bite her ear off 👍

How's either of these two posts related to the gold price?

Please stay on topic.

[James32]

£1892

[ZRPMs]

By the way, What happened. Didn't even get to £1,900. Poor show. I held no hope for silver but gold had a chance I thought

[James32]

Just now, ZRPMs said:

By the way, What happened. Didn't even get to £1,900. Poor show. I held no hope for silver but gold had a chance I thought

I'm very happy with what we currently have. 

[James32]

No it's too late @ZRPMs

[ZRPMs]

Just now, James32 said:

I'm very happy with what we currently have. 

To be fair, I am also. Just a little sore form the HMRC reaming earlier on. 

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

1 minute ago, ZRPMs said:

By the way, What happened. Didn't even get to £1,900. Poor show. I held no hope for silver but gold had a chance I thought

Still a few hours to go and gold is back on the rise. I wouldn't be shocked to see a close above £1900