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Bratnia

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  1. That's a lagged measure, by the time a official recession is flagged, it may already be over.
  2. With stocks (VWRP/world) and gold up year to date by similar amounts, 50/50 target stock/gold weightings and adding to the most-down or drawing from the most-up ... would have you adding or withdrawing in around equal measures of stocks and gold. Time averaging in/out ... washes, sometimes you'll be buying (selling) at highs, or lows, unknown at the time, only with hindsight, but that broadly averages out.
  3. Buy equal amounts of stock and gold, average-in over time. When you look back some will have bought at relative highs, and lows. Averages out OK. When you retire and average-out over time that also will work out OK. Time smooths the high and lows out. It may be a case of gold does poorly, in which case stocks will likely do very well. Or perhaps stocks do poorly/gold does well. If 50 gold value halves to 25, when 50 stock value doubles to 100, you'll be better placed than another who solely invested in the worst performing asset. Historically for all ten year periods stocks total returns were the better performing asset in 60% of cases, gold bettered stocks in 40% of cases. Some might prefer 60/40 stock/gold target weightings however the differences in rewards between that and 50/50 were small. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=6HieS72NQEoRc1BYYjs7CV
  4. Why the recent spike in the price of gold? Because the EU have declared that its OK to repurpose central banks money/assets (redirect Russian central banks money/assets) elsewhere. A major central bank doing that wont go down very well with other central banks. Euro's dropped 4 or 5%, those puling out of/reducing Euro's have to redeploy that capital elsewhere, of which some in gold is a reasonable/sound choice.
  5. Personally I like Marmite.
  6. Sovhead's avatar provides a clue
  7. 25 years of buying some gold (and stocks) each month (accumulation years), another 25 years of selling some gold (and stocks) each month (retirement) and some will have been bought (sold) at relative highs or lows, but broadly all wash (average) out. If you target particular weightings, perhaps 50/50 stock/gold, add new savings to the one that's below target; Or if in drawdown spend from the one that is most above target, that's a element of add-low/reduce-high 'trading'.
  8. 1980 to 1999 !!! In nominal terms started at something like $540/ounce ended at $270 ounce (price halved), obviously even lower in real (after inflation) terms. Generally better to buy (sell) equal amounts of stock and gold value, 50/50 stock/gold 1980-1999 ended up with something like 7 times more gold being held, so even though the price per ounce was lower, the accumulated/additional gold (without having injected another penny) compensated. Across the 2000's (dot com bubble burst/2008 financial crisis) that swung the other way, reduced ounces of gold ... more stock shares accumulated. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=7mpGLFj4bWIwF9SEcc7EJm
  9. Today's all time high can turn out to be a forward time all time low.
  10. ? Gold section (not silver) and the OP indicates gold
  11. Fundamentally the world still operates to a gold standard. Different countries manage that in different ways, but its the very bottom line base. In the US they compulsory purchased all gold and locked 8000+ tons of it away, and issued the Fed with non-redeemable gold notes at a $42.42/ounce price. So the more the dollar weakens to the more leverage the Fed has, at $4242/ounce price the Fed has 100x leverage. Canada sold all of its central banks gold - because it has tons of gold buried away (un-mined). The UK sold some of its gold to help start/prop up the then new Euro, and as it also holds many other countries gold in safe keeping (used to be the predominant global hub of accounting/law/banking expertise, and where gold bars were moved between different countries cages in reflection of trade surplus/deficit changes). Push come to shove, and each currency has its gold 'reserves' to fall back upon if/when the domestic fiat currency becomes over-stretched. As part of that all gold within the country is included, i.e. potential 'compulsory purchases/seizure' of private/individuals gold - but as a very last resort. So as far as some countries are concerned gold held directly by the state, or more distributed across individual citizens ... is the same. As savers/investors in gold that is a key factor to be aware of. There is a risk that the state could at some point prohibit the movement of gold out of the country and compulsory purchase/seize your gold - by law, but likely only in very extreme cases. In reflection of that gold you may hold might be better placed if stored outside of your home country/beyond the reach of your state. Increasingly however states are making it more difficult if not impossible to hold gold privately/secretly. There is the argument that when the state knows where and how much you have - its no longer yours, its just a loan. In past generations it was considered none of anyone else's business how much they had/earned. In more recent times however and individuals have become much less caring about privacy, don't mind the state monitoring all their movements, actions, thoughts, wealth/assets. In effect people have willing accepted becoming prisoners/slaves of the state.
  12. Up to 10K Euros "cash" that includes gold coins such as Britannias entering into Ireland (including Northern Ireland) from the UK (GB) - doesn't have to be declared. Mindful however that Customs could confiscate ALL of your cash if the cash value is above 1K and if they have reasonable grounds to believe that it is the proceeds of or intended to be used for illegal purposes https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/travel-and-recreation/travel-to-ireland/customs-regulations-for-travellers/ That includes the collective sum of all parties in a travelling group (no 9K me, 9K the wife etc.). i.e. gold coins of at least 90% gold content are considered as being "cash". See also https://www.gov.uk/bringing-cash-into-uk about taking cash (including gold coins) into/out of the UK - that also identifies gold coins as being 'cash'. https://www.bullionbypost.ie/info/how-to-buy-gold/vat-on-silver-gold/ outlines how Looks to me that purchasing gold coins from GB into Ireland should be free of VAT, but perhaps best to declare it even if under 10K value (above 1K value) ... just in case you're accused of doing so for illicit purposes - which could otherwise risk having it being seized and the added complications of trying to get it back. Declaration entails disclosing passport/ID, address(es), who/where/when/how conveyed, the amount/value, the source of the value (wages/savings), the intended purpose of the value/spending. Taxation wise, gold sold for a higher price than what was paid and its more a case of just declaring that gain as per any other 'currency' (cash) exchange rate gain. As though you perhaps bought US dollars at 1.50 dollars per pound/euro, and later exchanged back at 1.25 dollars per pound/euro, you made a 20% profit on FX (currency change benefit) and should declare/pay tax on that gain. That's my reading of it, but I'm no expert in that field, just someone reading through/posting on the internet.
  13. ecking with a f looks to be a censored word, but can be a term of endearment in Ireland.
  14. He's grand, acting the maggot, he's bang on so he is, a good craic. For the f****** eejits : He would be your man
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