Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[Scuzzle]

8 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

Possibly just a kneejerk from the FOMC committee meeting report that suggested a US interest rate rise sooner rather than later. Will be interesting to see how the metals go over the next couple of days.

How long are people going to fall for the Fed Jedi mind trick, they are never going to risk what happened at the beginning of the year happening again near the Presidential election.

[vand]

12 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

Possibly just a kneejerk from the FOMC committee meeting report that suggested a US interest rate rise sooner rather than later. Will be interesting to see how the metals go over the next couple of days.

Yes, it's all smoke and mirrors. The Fed will not raise rates other than to save face and be able to say "we said we were going to raise rates, and therefore we're raising them."

It does, however, give the market players a narrative to follow and for gold to move lower over the short term while the "possibility" is still on the table. My guess is that commodities will move lower into the June FOMC and then whatever they do, it will bottom around that time. If the Fed does end up tacking on a quarter point then that will be it, not only for this year but for this entire economic cycle. 

[sovereignsteve]

1 hour ago, vand said:

Yes, it's all smoke and mirrors. The Fed will not raise rates other than to save face and be able to say "we said we were going to raise rates, and therefore we're raising them."

Yes that's the issue really, they have backed themselves into a corner and really have to act at some point or they will lose any shred of credibility they still think they have.

[HawkHybrid]

they are having problems with the recent stagflation/inflation.

this will put pressure on them to raise rates.

 

HH

[vand]

General PM selloff and a stronger GBP has seen silver back in my buying range.

Spot current at £11.15 and Celticgold have 2015 Maples @ 16% over. Complete no brainer - pulled the trigger. One of my cheapest batches ever. Very happy to secure more oz at such a low price.

Edited May 27, 2016 by vand

[4Nines7Hills]

The US  won't raise the rate until after the Brits decide what happens with the EU, so that's july at the earliest.

If we leave the EU silver will be significantly more expensive in the short  term whatever the spot price or the Fed do due to the knee jerk falling all the £ .

The only question is how long will this weak £  last  before recivery?

 

I need to buy a little more silver and maybe gold before June 23rd

[KDave]

The £ bottomed in April and has been strengthening ever since. I therefore can not believe that brexit has anything to do with the strength of the pound, and do not think the UK will be on the losing side if we leave. You are right that silver will be significantly more expensive, but only because we will no longer be able to take advantage of the reduced VAT, not because the pound will be weaker.

The Euro will be the loser in the case of Britain leaving as it is a net contributor. The project will be a few hundred million short for its annual budget which will do nothing to support confidence in either the Euro or the future sustainability of the project itself without some tough times for the remaining members.

[4Nines7Hills]

I agree the EU well be weaker,  I still think the pound will go down more immediately after the referendum ... Don't underestimate the fear in our financial professionals Look at 911 everything went south incl  ft100 losing half it's value which is billions and why? It was horific and discusting but no economic reason  for the reaction....basically 5000 people were murdered a building came down and three places crashed.

 The initial drop in £ was for the idea of the referendum, there will be another drop if we vote out ( short term at least)

 

We won't lose vat free silver for 2 years either

Edited May 30, 2016 by 4Nines7Hills

[DRooster]

But the silver we OWN will be worth more at home ...
 

[vand]

The markets have long moved on from the Brexit question and have clearly written off the chances of a "leave" decision (rightly, in my view).  The bookies have been slashing their 'stay' odd for the last few weeks - the result will be a very convincing "stay". 

I personally think that UK and EU with BOTH lose if we vote leave. Why? Because free trade is MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL. If you erect walls that make trade more difficult then everyone loses. Trade is one thing that ALL economists understand and agree benefits both sides. Remember this truism when you hear some news that countries want trade embargoes imposed on a particular country or for eg, China to boycott trade with Iran... Why is it in China's interest to trade less with Iran? It's in both their interests that trade between them happens, and if that is true (as it must be) then less trade between them will hurt them both, not just Iran. 

Anyway, the Brexit question was the tail wagging the dog. GBP/USD is usually driven by The USD daily and weekly cycles. The short term USD bounce should be topping around now, and I would expect further dollar weakness over the summer to drive both PMs and GBP higher.

[HighlandTiger]

1 hour ago, vand said:

The bookies have been slashing their 'stay' odd for the last few weeks

Not sure which bookies you've been looking at, but the stay odds have been drifting quite a bit in the last few days.

Betfair was down to 1/5 for a remain, now it's around 1/3. Leave was 5/1, now its down to around 11/4

1 hour ago, vand said:

I personally think that UK and EU with BOTH lose if we vote leave. Why? Because free trade is MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL. If you erect walls that make trade more difficult then everyone loses.

I think you are missing the point regarding leaving the EU. The UK would NOT be erecting any walls. In fact leaving would enable us to dismantle the walls put up by the EU with the rest of the world outside of the EU. The UK is more than happy to trade freely with the EU, we just don't want to put up with daft unworkable rules, created by unelected officials, and then having to pay for all of it. We can trade freely with the EU, without filling the pockets of Brussels, and we would be able to trade freely with the rest of the world.

I can remember a time when our shops were full of cheap New Zealand lamb and butter, with adverts for these products on our TV every day. The EU put a stop to that. I can remember the "Buy British" campaigns, but the EU said Non to that. The French farmers burn a few tyres, block a few roads and they get massive subsidies and we end up paying more for goods

I can remember our fishermen having one of the greatest fleets in the world, and our seas being full of Cod, Herring, etc. But the the EU allowed the Spanish to raid our waters with their factory ships, (Drake would be spinning in his grave), and our fishing fleet is decimated and is now a shadow of what it was.  

I can remember the butter mountains and grain stockpiles caused by the Common agricultural policy, that actually raised food prices, and stopped developing countries from selling cheap food to us.

Was all this MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL for us..................do me a favour. 

 

As for trade embargoes, I'm not sure you've realised this, but they have NOTHING to do with economics, and are political measures to put pressure on countries whose policies have an adverse effect on their neighbours and the rest of the world.   

 

 

 

[gkoogk]

well said HT..we are that desperate we need the EU to survive lol

[DRooster]

The Euro is more toxic than the dollar : vote leave!
 

[vand]

On 3 June 2016 at 16:57, DRooster said:

The Euro is more toxic than the dollar : vote leave!
 

Getting rather off topic, but the EU is not the same as the Euro!

[sovereignsteve]

3 hours ago, vand said:

Getting rather off topic, but the EU is not the same as the Euro!

true, but the euro is the evil spawn of the EU, it wouldn't exist otherwise.

[DRooster]

Regarding the Euro : if the Remain vote wins you can count on that being taken as a mandate to join the eurozone in the near future : the pound would be doomed.

I'm not joking, this is the way they work with all their ratcheting.
 

[LongJohnSilver]

Well that woke up

[BaldyBob]

On ‎06‎/‎06‎/‎2016 at 18:37, DRooster said:

mandate to join the eurozone in the near future

Maybe we should have a sweepstake as to when the nominated value on Brits changes from £ to Euro's. If we don't escape obviously. 2022?

[Stu]

Poised to breach the £12 mark again?

[vand]

4 hours ago, Stu said:

Poised to breach the £12 mark again?

Almost certainly will take out £12 and I wouldn't be surprised to see £14+ in the coming weeks. We had 4 weeks of correction and now if we have started a new daily cycle then it is still very early into the cycle. 

[DRooster]

I don't know if the firgure's real this evening, but it looks like a (almost) two-year high on this here silverprice.org graph.
 

[vand]

New GBP highs...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GBPUSD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p77276900203

[shemyaza]

Then its all wiped out by the PPM utilisation of the Gold to Silver ratio, PPM pushed it Up and then Pushes it Down. Oh look, the Dow was up, what a shock....really it was down this morning when Gold and Silver were flying high. Batteries, I'll call Paper Gold and Silver the Duracell Metals from now on.

Edited June 16, 2016 by shemyaza

[StinkyLebinowitz]

No, it's tanked because I put an order in last night at yesterday's money. Thank heavens it was done after midnight here, because it was still cancelable when I got up this morning to the new price.

Edited June 16, 2016 by StinkyLebinowitz

[vand]

I like to buy when there's a bit of a selloff, but frankly once I've hit that "confirm" button and the order has gone through, I don't really care if the price goes up or down a few percent either way. It's difficult to catch the bottom, so what normally happens is that I'll buy it when it's tanking and the price will fall a bit further, but then after all the selling is done it bounces back and makes further highs.