Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[vand]

@ApisMellifera

If you go onto the DailyReckoning Facebook page you can see the link, although when you click on it it seem broken, so I suspect they have taken it down for whatever reason. Maybe I'm reading too much into it.. but maybe not.

Anyway, it was by Michael Covel who will be a name familiar to anyone with an interest in trend trading, and basically said how Kiyosaki put out a "Buy Silver" recommendation in late 2011 when silver was still $32 but clearly after the peak and after the trend had changed, and furthermore how he is a media creation arising from his appearance on Oprah, his failed business ventures, and how his "rich dad" is also likely to be just a fictitious invention. Interesting stuff. DYOR as always

.. broken link

http://dailyreckoning.com/rich-dad-poor-fool/

 

[HawkHybrid]

3 hours ago, HighlandTiger said:

Are you really going to hold up Livermore as someone who was a success predicting the markets.

The same Livermore who lost every penny he amassed, was declared bankrupt and committed suicide.

Thanks for proving my point. No one can predict the markets . .. . end of story

Sent from my SM-G901F using Tapatalk

 

over the longer time frames it can be done with enough accuracy

to give you a trading edge.

eg 

http://news.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-forecast-2021-stealth-bull-market/120

 

christopher aaron technical analysis charts can be interpreted as.

gold will rise sharply before the end of may 2016 to reach a

temporary high of ~$1350-$1400. it will then consolidate within a

a range of $1310-$1400 for many months before moving higher

no earlier than nov 2016. 

 

let's see what happens 

 

HH

[Agpanda]

buy low and sell high, works for almost everything you selling

[vand]

4 hours ago, HighlandTiger said:

Are you really going to hold up Livermore as someone who was a success predicting the markets.

The same Livermore who lost every penny he amassed, was declared bankrupt and committed suicide.

Thanks for proving my point. No one can predict the markets . .. . end of story

Sent from my SM-G901F using Tapatalk

 

Livermore didn't try to predict the market... that was his whole thing. He traded on what the market was doing at the time. If it was going up he would be long. If it was going down he would be short.  He waited for trends to develop, got along for the ride, used profit from his last position as confirmation that the trend was still intact, and and then got out when the trend was no longer so...but one of the lessons he instilled was that he would never predicted where they would go because that is pitting your ego against the market which is always a losing proposition... he merely observed price & volume action then acted in line with the overriding trend.

 

Edited April 19, 2016 by vand

[Bumble]

I've heard other technical analysts say that they are not trying to predict the price, only follow the trend, but I've never found this convincing. If you take a position in the hope of making a profit then you are predicting. You are positioning yourself so that a future rise (or fall) in price will result in you being better off, and that lies within the definition of predicting a rise (or fall). You don't know the current trend will continue; you are predicting that it will. The most that a TA can say is that they are ignoring fundamental information and predicting only on the basis of a trend or pattern. But trends and patterns frequently lack predictive power, just as much as fundamental factors do. TA's sometimes say their methods measure momentum or the crowd psychology of other investors. This may be true to some extent, but I doubt whether it amounts to much. I suspect it may be little more than a self-fulfilling prophecy: enough bandwagonners using TA will create their own momentum.

[shemyaza]

Sell High Ratio Gold into Silver and then Sell low ratio Silver into Gold, why spend when you can double your ounces at no cost at all. Aristotle knew this, even he talked about it all those thousands of years ago.....

Edited April 19, 2016 by shemyaza

[HighlandTiger]

9 hours ago, shemyaza said:

Sell High Ratio Gold into Silver and then Sell low ratio Silver into Gold, why spend when you can double your ounces at no cost at all. Aristotle knew this, even he talked about it all those thousands of years ago.....

I think you pushing things a little by hinting that Aristotle was playing the GSR. His thoughts on money was about trying to equate different products value into a all encompassing system. Basically his idea of money must have 4 different characteristics. It must be durable, portable, divisible, and have intrinsic value. Hence his choice of gold. The GSR changed very little over thousands of years, and would often be unchanged in a persons lifetime, 

However it has changed from its historical low of 2 1/2 to 1 5000 years ago to todays value.

oh and for the record, At the time of Aristotle. Gold was believed to have been created from a fusion of water and bright sunlight, so I'm not sure he was that bright.. ;)

[vand]

17 hours ago, Bumble said:

I've heard other technical analysts say that they are not trying to predict the price, only follow the trend, but I've never found this convincing. If you take a position in the hope of making a profit then you are predicting. You are positioning yourself so that a future rise (or fall) in price will result in you being better off, and that lies within the definition of predicting a rise (or fall). You don't know the current trend will continue; you are predicting that it will. The most that a TA can say is that they are ignoring fundamental information and predicting only on the basis of a trend or pattern. But trends and patterns frequently lack predictive power, just as much as fundamental factors do. TA's sometimes say their methods measure momentum or the crowd psychology of other investors. This may be true to some extent, but I doubt whether it amounts to much. I suspect it may be little more than a self-fulfilling prophecy: enough bandwagonners using TA will create their own momentum.

Maybe so, but no less disingenuous than any Fundamental Analyst who claim they never look at a chart.

[ApisMellifera]

So it looks like silver is on the big media on the radar. (Obviously).

An interesting quote on this article LOL...  (She must be a member on here or scanning the forums)
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/04/19/silvers-surge-means-its-closing-the-gap-on-gold/

"In a Tuesday note to clients, Ms. Fung (a metals strategist at BMO Capital Markets) said that while the gold-to-silver ratio is not necessarily a reliable indicator for precious metals prices, the market’s focus on silver in relation to gold may have itself driven up prices.  “The recent move may simply be a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Ms. Fung wrote."

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/19/investing/silver-price-soars/

http://uk.businessinsider.com/silver-prices-april-19-2016-4

 

Edited April 20, 2016 by ApisMellifera

[vand]

In terms of price in gold, silver at under 1/80th of an oz is about as big of a "no brainer" in the world of investment and stack building as you can get! 

In terms of fiats, I was hoping to be able to grab some silver at sub-£10, but now would consider a pullback to sub-£11 as a good buying opportunity. 

I think these prices may be a dim and distant memory before too long and we will all talk of the time when silver was on sale and talk about how we were buying it hand over fist when no one else was interested. At least my greed allows me to dream of such days to come..  

Edited April 20, 2016 by vand

[Webster]

It's taking off big time now jheeze

[HighlandTiger]

I think this run will continue to bring the GSR down. But once it gets to about 65, the run will end. Still. it'll put another £1.50 onto silver which will allow me to get rid of my coins at a bit of a profit

[vand]

Wow.

£12.12 | $17.33 now. 

Rocketship indeed. Gold still only $1256, so if & when Gold joins the party, silver could easily be in the $18s.

[Webster]

I hope so! Keep rising !!!

[vand]

1 minute ago, Webster said:

I hope so! Keep rising !!!

No! Much To Learn You Still Have.

We want precisely the opposite - for prices to stay low so we can acquire more on the cheap. If you only hold a few oz, what good does a price explosion to £100/oz do you? It'll buy you a holiday. Whoopie do. I'm looking to acquire a few hundred more ozs this year and a few thousand more ozs over the next few years - ideally for as little £££ as possible. 

 

[HighlandTiger]

Sorry@vand but you have much to learn too.

If you wait too many years before a price rise in pms any profit could be wiped out by inflation. What you really need is a few years at a low price then a year at a high price. Then repeat the cycle many times over your lifetime

[LongJohnSilver]

On 19 April 2016 at 09:38, Cornishfarmer said:

 

34 minutes ago, HighlandTiger said:

Sorry@vand but you have much to learn too.

If you wait too many years before a price rise in pms any profit could be wiped out by inflation. What you really need is a few years at a low price then a year at a high price. Then repeat the cycle many times over your lifetime

 

[LongJohnSilver]

There are many reasons someone might wish silver to rise. They may believe in volatility so buy in dips and sell higher and repeat, they may be leveraged on paper and wish to cash in and swap for physical, they may have an up bet, they may have finished stacking, they may be looking to a gsr switch point .

 

not everyone thinks every rise in silver is final and once and for all. It may go up and down many times begore people cadh in so short term ruses are good in that sense providing tgey cash out when they feel its overbought

[vand]

46 minutes ago, HighlandTiger said:

Sorry@vand but you have much to learn too.

If you wait too many years before a price rise in pms any profit could be wiped out by inflation. What you really need is a few years at a low price then a year at a high price. Then repeat the cycle many times over your lifetime

 

Depends if you are looking to acquire more ozs, or happy with what you have. Personally I'm looking to double my ozs over the rest of this year, and doing so at £14/oz will cost me considerably more than it would at £11/oz.. And yes, there are up and downs in all markets, but with the huge spread in trading physical silver it is far better as a buy & hold vehicle. 

I appreciate that not everyone is in the same position as me, and some of you are holding as much as you want, or even looking to unload some. Timing is everything. 

For @webster I don't think even if silver went to £100/oz it would be significantly life-changing, so he should welcome the chance to buy more as cheaply as possible. What good does it do if prices double if you are only holding onto tube? It'll get you a free holiday.. but won't change your life.

Anyway, at the moment, even if you don't trust the official figures, you can't deny that there really is very little price inflation around..

[HighlandTiger]

If you think silver and gold are buy and hold vehicles then I'm afraid you won't be making money with PM'S.

Try looking at inflation adjusted price charts. You'll notice that they change very little over time. All you will achieve with your suggested strategy is a preservation of wealth not a creation of wealth.

If anyone is like me, and wants to make their pms earn money then you have to buy at lower prices than you sell for. And you will need to do this numerous times over your lifetime.

[Scuzzle]

Personally I think preservation of wealth is a good enough reason alone to be holding silver, everyone must see that traditional monetary policy has been turned on it's head and it can't possibly go on like this for ever.  I was hoping to get to 1000 oz in physical to have and hold for just such a reason then switch to ETF's so I could do what HT suggests and get in and out quickly with profit.

[HighlandTiger]

@Scuzzle. Rather than ETFs I'd prefer to buy allocated silver with some one like bullion vault. It has the liquidity to allow a quick sale when required, but backed with actual silver you could take out of the vault if you ever needed it.

[HawkHybrid]

physical holdings should play the long cycle.

paper trading should play the shorter cycles.

if one trader gains it means another trader loses.

unlike investing where all holders can gain or lose

at the same time.

allocated silver has it's place but may not be most

suitable for everyone.

 

HH

[Pipers]

SIlver has gone up about 23% in sterling this last 1/4 so in my opinion is not a good buy, I would wait for a pull back. I think silver may touch $18.This is just my take and I am playing it this way:- If we stay in the EU Gold and silver will drop back and the the £  and the euro will rally.  If Trump is defeated at the rep conference then Gold  will drop even more. If we leave leave the EU and Trump gets the Rep ticket Gold and Silver will rally even more sterling will weaken badly on the EU out news and so the the Euro. I'm playing we stay in the EU and Trump gets the ticket (he'll lose against H Clinton), I am not short Gold and Silver and do not mind taking a risk. I have opinions that I back unlike some journalist's on the TV or emails you receive.    

[HighlandTiger]

If we get to £14 an ounce I'll be selling all my numis and semi numi silver coins, and then like you I'll wait for the pull back and re-buy, but ill be buying sterling flatware at spot instead of coins this time.