Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[gji25]

12 hours ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

We're 1 week 1 hour and 50 mins away from the next Fed meeting. A few weeks ago the market (interest-rate traders using the 30-day Fed Funds Rate futures) was factoring in 0% chance of a hike to 525-550 bp but since then the odds, according to the market, have increased from 0% to 35% of another hike. I held firm in my belief the Fed would hike on 14th June. I am a little surprised by what I believe will be another THREE HIKES after 14th June but this appears to be the consensus not just with the Fed but also the BoE and ECB. The BoE is currently at 4.5% but will most likely hike to 5.5% over the next 4 meetings.

There may even be 6 further 25 bp hikes. None of that is good news for gold as the "risk-free rate" is currently 5.122% (1-month Treasury) so those seeking safe-havens, especially the rich, are pumping their money there and not into precious metals. That timeline puts the pause circa September to November and likely means sideways trading or downwards pressure on gold until then

CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group

They will keep hiking rates till it hits about 7% and contradictory to it pushing the price of gold down it will do the opposite as people will wake up to real money. A weatherman told me ⛈️ 

Edited June 8, 2023 by gji25
Info

[katyc]

“More than 50% of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months when new lending rates are likely to be up by 350 to 450 basis points”

So many commercial mortgages will easily double (or more) in repayment costs. A huge percentage of Commercial properties are still empty due to the adaptions of hybrid working during Covid. So the building valuations will have crashed (commercial valuations are based on their rentable value). So even if a landlords could afford the huge hikes in repayments (unlikely for many), then most banks will refuse to continue the loan based on the LTV now being off. This means masses of repossessions. Those landlords that can continue their loan and can afford repayments will have no choice but to hike the rent, causing small businesses to fail (who can't afford their rent - especially since non essential sales are plummeting). That means even more empty Commercial properties, hence further collapse in valuations and so on.

In America the banks are selling off tonnes of Commercial properties right now (literally dumping them for huge losses) because they see what's coming. Let's not forget there's been more gold buying in the last year for banks in around 50 years. I'm predicting more bank failures - probably this month (but don't hold me to that or I'll become the new Wonga of the forum!) 

This is huge. The 2008 Financial Crisis looks like a mouse compared to this.... (in my opinion). It will probably damage residential property value too (hopefully not as much). I see rental demand for residential property to be on the up because many homeowners will lose their houses due to unaffordable mortgage hikes (thus causing home values to plummet). However there will also be more tenant rent payment defaults due to job losses - of which the courts won't be able to handle. Terrifying times ahead.

Car industry is crashing too (I still can't believe how many didn't - and still don't - see how that bubble was bound to explode).

The above is based on USA's current situation, but likely most other countries will have the same issue. At the end of the day, USA is (currently) the reserve currency - so what happens there is more important for gold (and silver).

All this is my long winded way of saying.... Gold is going to da moon!  Although I wouldn't be surprised if gold does plummet down first quite a bit more - as there is a liquidity crisis (which happens before every major collapse). However if lots of banks collapse tomorrow then that stage may be skipped completely and it could just go up and up. Impossible to say. But that doesn't bother me, we just need to be patient. The future is not bright for the global economy, but it certainly is for gold.

Edited June 8, 2023 by katyc

[ant1882]

13 minutes ago, katyc said:

“More than 50% of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months when new lending rates are likely to be up by 350 to 450 basis points”

So many commercial mortgages will easily double (or more) in repayment costs. A huge percentage of Commercial properties are still empty due to the adaptions of hybrid working during Covid. So the building valuations will have crashed (commercial valuations are based on their rentable value). So even if a landlords could afford the huge hikes in repayments (unlikely for many), then most banks will refuse to continue the loan based on the LTV now being off. This means masses of repossessions. Those landlords that can continue their loan and can afford repayments will have no choice but to hike the rent, causing small businesses to fail (who can't afford their rent - especially since non essential sales are plummeting). That means even more empty Commercial properties, hence further collapse in valuations and so on.

In America the banks are selling off tonnes of Commercial properties right now (literally dumping them for huge losses) because they see what's coming. Let's not forget there's been more gold buying in the last year for banks in around 50 years. I'm predicting more bank failures - probably this month (but don't hold me to that or I'll become the new Wonga of the forum!) 

This is huge. The 2008 Financial Crisis looks like a mouse compared to this.... (in my opinion). It will probably damage residential property too (hopefully not as much). I see rental demand for residential to be on the up because many people will lose their homes too. However there will also be more tenant rent payment defaults due to job losses - all of which the courts won't be able to handle. Terrifying times ahead.

Car industry is crashing too (I still can't believe how many didn't - and still don't - see how that bubble was bound to explode).

The above is based on USA's current situation, but likely most other countries will have the same issue. At the end of the day, USA is (currently) the reserve currency - so what happens there is more important for gold (and silver).

All this is my long winded way of saying.... Gold is going to da moon!  Although I wouldn't be surprised if gold does plummet down first quite a bit more - as there is a liquidity crisis (which happens before every major collapse). However if lots of banks collapse tomorrow then that stage may be skipped completely and it could just go up and up. Impossible to say. But that doesn't bother me, we just need to be patient. The future is not bright for the global economy, but it certainly is for gold.

A good watch:

https://youtu.be/FiWDMKA1Z-c

Agreed, looking bullish for gold!

[katyc]

1 minute ago, ant1882 said:

A good watch:

https://youtu.be/FiWDMKA1Z-c

Agreed, looking bullish for gold!

Wow, what timing! That's in the last hour! I've got it on in the background as we speak. Thanks

[GoldDiggerDave]

42 minutes ago, katyc said:

“More than 50% of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months when new lending rates are likely to be up by 350 to 450 basis points”

So many commercial mortgages will easily double (or more) in repayment costs. A huge percentage of Commercial properties are still empty due to the adaptions of hybrid working during Covid. So the building valuations will have crashed (commercial valuations are based on their rentable value). So even if a landlords could afford the huge hikes in repayments (unlikely for many), then most banks will refuse to continue the loan based on the LTV now being off. This means masses of repossessions. Those landlords that can continue their loan and can afford repayments will have no choice but to hike the rent, causing small businesses to fail (who can't afford their rent - especially since non essential sales are plummeting). That means even more empty Commercial properties, hence further collapse in valuations and so on.

In America the banks are selling off tonnes of Commercial properties right now (literally dumping them for huge losses) because they see what's coming. Let's not forget there's been more gold buying in the last year for banks in around 50 years. I'm predicting more bank failures - probably this month (but don't hold me to that or I'll become the new Wonga of the forum!) 

This is huge. The 2008 Financial Crisis looks like a mouse compared to this.... (in my opinion). It will probably damage residential property value too (hopefully not as much). I see rental demand for residential property to be on the up because many homeowners will lose their houses due to unaffordable mortgage hikes (thus causing home values to plummet). However there will also be more tenant rent payment defaults due to job losses - of which the courts won't be able to handle. Terrifying times ahead.

Car industry is crashing too (I still can't believe how many didn't - and still don't - see how that bubble was bound to explode).

The above is based on USA's current situation, but likely most other countries will have the same issue. At the end of the day, USA is (currently) the reserve currency - so what happens there is more important for gold (and silver).

All this is my long winded way of saying.... Gold is going to da moon!  Although I wouldn't be surprised if gold does plummet down first quite a bit more - as there is a liquidity crisis (which happens before every major collapse). However if lots of banks collapse tomorrow then that stage may be skipped completely and it could just go up and up. Impossible to say. But that doesn't bother me, we just need to be patient. The future is not bright for the global economy, but it certainly is for gold.

Same retail mortgages.  We are going to have millions of mortgage payers push past breaking point. 

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

15 minutes ago, katyc said:

“More than 50% of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months when new lending rates are likely to be up by 350 to 450 basis points”

So many commercial mortgages will easily double (or more) in repayment costs. A huge percentage of Commercial properties are still empty due to the adaptions of hybrid working during Covid. So the building valuations will have crashed (commercial valuations are based on their rentable value). So even if a landlords could afford the huge hikes in repayments (unlikely for many), then most banks will refuse to continue the loan based on the LTV now being off. This means masses of repossessions. Those landlords that can afford repayments will have no choice but to hike the rent, causing small businesses to fail (who can't afford their rent - especially since non essential sales are plummeting). That means even more empty Commercial properties, hence further collapse in valuations and so on.

In America the banks are selling off tonnes of Commercial properties right now (literally dumping them for huge losses) because they see what's coming. Let's not forget there's been more gold buying in the last year for banks in around 50 years. I'm predicting more bank failures - probably this month (but don't hold me to that or I'll become the new Wonga of the forum!) 

This is huge. The 2008 Financial Crisis looks like a mouse compared to this.... (in my opinion). It will probably damage residential property too (hopefully not as much). I see rental demand for residential to be on the up because many people will lose their homes too. However there will also be more tenant rent payment defaults due to job losses - all of which the courts won't be able to handle. Terrifying times ahead.

Car industry is crashing too (I still can't believe how many didn't - and still don't - see how that bubble was bound to explode).

The above is based on USA's current situation, but likely most other countries will have the same issue. At the end of the day, USA is (currently) the reserve currency - so what happens there is more important for gold (and silver).

All this is my long winded way of saying.... Gold is going to da moon!  Although I wouldn't be surprised if gold does plummet down first quite a bit more - as there is a liquidity crisis (which happens before every major collapse). However if lots of banks collapse tomorrow then that stage may be skipped completely and it could just go up and up. Impossible to say. But that doesn't bother me, we just need to be patient. The future is not bright for the global economy, but it certainly is for gold.

Rebel Capitalist did a good bit on this, check timestamp:

 

You can see some banks are much more heavily exposed to CRE than others, with the biggest banks like JPM having hardly any exposure at all

I agree with your sentiments about CRE and the domino effects on tenants, however, I think residential real estate is a different situation. Sure, those residential properties which are at or above their 2007 peaks will likely take a dip, but there are many areas in the UK where house prices have not got close to their 2007 peaks, still being 30%+ under those valuations

Residential house prices closely follow inflation and have done forever (Case-Shiller Index), so in a period of high inflation it's highly unlikely that reasonably priced properties will crash in value. If they do crash during an era of high inflation then it will be the worst financial crisis on record. I've been predicting a depression for more than 2 years but I expect that to largely exclude residential housing in the UK. If we look at the costs to rebuild a residential property from scratch, we can see that the price has roughly doubled since 2019. If the cost of building a house has doubled, it suggests to me it's highly unlikely the price of existing properties will nosedive like in 2007-8

If we analyse the situation from the Great Financial Crisis, we can observe it was the roughly 50% drop in residential valuations that was the primary manifestation of the crisis and this contained inflation even while the money printer was going brrrrr. In the UK, house prices matter more than in the USA or EU as British citizens have proportionally more of their wealth tied up in real estate. It was the loss of equity in residential properties that was the catalyst for the previous recession and the obliteration of consumer demand for non-essentials. Today it's not a loss of equity in residential properties that is wiping out consumer spending power but high inflation is doing an equivalent job

It's quite scary to see the stats and reports from US retailers. Americans have more free income than British people but obviously have to pay for private health care, private schools and so on, whereas British people at least have the option of finding a high quality public school and using the NHS without forking out a fortune on private insurance and fees. So, when we see that Americans are not just cutting down on non-essentials but cutting them out completely, while also making adjustments within the essential sector, it's a worrying sign - e.g. instead of buying beef they buy chicken, instead of buying fresh fruit & vegetables and sub-prime cuts of meat, they buy tinned alternatives. The consumer is really struggling. The USA might experience a downturn in residential house prices especially in overheated locations but in the UK the same will not be true IMHO.

If we look back to the 2008 crisis we can see that certain "high class" areas of London and other big cities didn't see much of a downturn at all. Residential property is very different to CRE as houses/apartments are a life essential. It doesn't really matter how much property costs, it's somewhat inelastic as people still need it. In the UK we have a growing population, a population that is growing much too fast for our environment and essential public services, but this influx of people from all over the world will continue to not just maintain house prices but increase them. It's hard to imagine but we in the UK actually pay much less for property than in some other places. In Tokyo or Hong Kong the average person is spending 70-80% of their after-tax income on property and property-related expenses. With hikes in mortgage repayments the average British person is certainly going to feel the squeeze and this will lead to recession but it's still possible for the average person to maintain their repayments by making compromises elsewhere - i.e. cutting down on non-essentials and foreign holidays in particular

We're already in a massive, deep and long recession. Inflation by official stats has topped 10% and unofficially we all know inflation is much higher, especially in energy and food which are conveniently not counted in inflation stats as they are "too volatile". It's not like we need energy and food to live or anything, makes sense they aren't included in inflation stats. Anyway, in real-terms we have been in a huge recession of 7-10% net for 9 or 10 quarters in a row. In my day we only talked in "real-terms" whereas today the media and wider public seem to ignore that. Oh inflation is 10% and we have 0.3% GDP growth, we're doing great! Umm, no, we're getting slaughtered but the figures are being manipulated to make the situation look better than it really is. If we had an absolute recession (negative GDP growth) at the same time as rampant inflation, again, that could signal the worst financial crisis on record. 

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

That's my very long-winded way of saying the explosion of gold and silver will be delayed by recession and interest-rate hikes by another 3-5 months. I still very much agree with @katyc and others that we're going to the moon, we just have to reschedule the launch. 

[AuricGoldfinger]

Basically…BUY BUY BUY!!!

[katyc]

42 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

That's my very long-winded way of saying the explosion of gold and silver will be delayed by recession and interest-rate hikes by another 3-5 months. I still very much agree with @katyc and others that we're going to the moon, we just have to reschedule the launch. 

I also think we are talking a few months - between Autumn and the end of the year as to when it all unfolds in the economy and we see the PMs rocket. Although lots of interesting things will probably happen in the meantime - such as more bank failures causing further boosts to PMs.

It takes time for job losses to happen and then affect the overall economy, interest rates etc.... During Covid many employers had to let employees go. Then they regretted it as things started to boom again and they struggled to take workers back on due to increased demand which hiked wages.

I believe that now companies have got people back on the payroll - they are feeling the pain and need to do lay offs - but they are holding off hoping things get better (because they worry that they'll struggle to find staff again like they did after Covid. They don't realise that this time it's different and there's no more free money. So they're going to hold off more than they should and get further in a hole).

I worry this could be a great depression if I'm honest (sorry to be doom and gloom 😬)

[HerefordBullyun]

2 minutes ago, katyc said:

 

I worry this could be a great depression if I'm honest (sorry to be doom and gloom 😬)

Why do you think they are trialling universal credit? 

[katyc]

6 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Why do you think they are trialling universal credit? 

Yup. Exactly. 

[flyingveepixie]

17 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Why do you think they are trialling universal credit? 

To the tune of £1600 per month, no less. The druggies and other lowlife who receive it will think they've won the lottery.  It would be interesting to watch if there was a change in the crime statistics during the trial.

Sorry, off topic...🙄

[Bigmarc]

Don't you all mean universal basic income (on trail). Everyone gets the same amount and is not means tested. Universal credit is just a top up for low earners and has been around for ages. 

[HerefordBullyun]

20 minutes ago, Bigmarc said:

Don't you all mean universal basic income (on trail). Everyone gets the same amount and is not means tested. Universal credit is just a top up for low earners and has been around for ages. 

yes 

[flyingveepixie]

46 minutes ago, Bigmarc said:

Don't you all mean universal basic income (on trail). Everyone gets the same amount and is not means tested. Universal credit is just a top up for low earners and has been around for ages. 

Yes, UBI.

[Upsidedown]

Hmm 🤔 without being arsed to read any of the above.

How might one go about claiming this 1600 of free monies 🤔🤔

[flyingveepixie]

26 minutes ago, Upsidedown said:

Hmm 🤔 without being arsed to read any of the above.

How might one go about claiming this 1600 of free monies 🤔🤔

Victims are to be selected at random, and for now there will be only 15 of them at each of the two locations of East Finchley and Central Jarrow..

Edited June 8, 2023 by flyingveepixie

[ant1882]

3 hours ago, flyingveepixie said:

Victims are to be selected at random, and for now there will be only 15 of them at each of the two locations of East Finchley and Central Jarrow..

I'm sure they won't be mates of anyone in government.

Back to the price, up and down a bit today... silver leading the way!

[ArgentSmith]

Not being funny but if only a handful of people are involved in the UBI "trial" it's not really much of a trial, the results would be very different if everyone was getting free money. lol

[SeverinDigsSovereigns]

7 hours ago, flyingveepixie said:

Yes, UBI.

Just don't tremble over UBI yet. These commie thugs will introduce UMI one day. Universal maximum income. And UMO, short for universal maximum ownership.

[flyingveepixie]

So to get back on topic - how is gold going to finish the week..?  Up a bit..?  or down a bit more..?   It doesn't seem to have moved at all since yesterday.

[HerefordBullyun]

3 hours ago, flyingveepixie said:

So to get back on topic - how is gold going to finish the week..?  Up a bit..?  or down a bit more..?   It doesn't seem to have moved at all since yesterday.

this is great TA from sprott....

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-06-08/another-false-dawn-metals 

Edited June 9, 2023 by HerefordBullyun

[gji25]

On 08/06/2023 at 05:35, gji25 said:

They will keep hiking rates till it hits about 7% and contradictory to it pushing the price of gold down it will do the opposite as people will wake up to real money. A weatherman told me ⛈️ 

 

On 09/06/2023 at 06:45, HerefordBullyun said:

this is great TA from sprott....

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-06-08/another-false-dawn-metals 

thats what i meant to say lol 

[HerefordBullyun]

wrong thread

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by HerefordBullyun

[CazLikesCoins]

On 08/06/2023 at 15:14, Upsidedown said:

Hmm 🤔 without being arsed to read any of the above.

How might one go about claiming this 1600 of free monies 🤔🤔

UBI will probably be easy to claim by signing your soul, life and mind away to the government by way of agreeing to vaccinations, restrictions on your movements and opening up your social media life to AI monitoring 24/7.

After that you'll probably be restricted to what you buy, what you eat based on your BMI, and what you watch on media platforms. And what you post on your Twitter feed and Facebook.

Financial bonuses may accrue for your endorsements and support of whatever the government's current pet project happens to be at the time, whether introducing insects into your diet, informing on your family members for X Y Z, or simply agreeing to stay indoors under curfew to lower your locations carbon footprint.

You may as well and go live in an egg. Will I take UBI? Yes because what else will there be to live on when the fembots are doing everyones jobs and everyone is walking around in a virtual reality haze like this episode od Dr Who: