Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[dicker]

I’m not sure how effective rate rises are given the backdrop of the vast amount of QE that was previously used.  Gold in GBP holding its own.  

[GoldenGriffin]

27 minutes ago, Upsidedown5318008 said:

Fed hiked rates .25% (as expected)

Gold not really reacting yet

Still ~1610

That'll be my mortgage going up again, yay! 

I'm expecting rates to cool off when more of the small to medium banks consolidate to a more 'favourable' larger bank that will roll out a CBDC.

In the meantime I'll be one of those that are literally living paycheck to paycheck.

At least for now, until a number of things happen this year that are all out of my control but expect things to change in the right direction.

A drop in interest rate in the next 6 to 12 months will be a bonus.

This cost of living crisis bloody bites doesn't it!

And when you know you want to buy gold or silver, it's a mixture of compromises.

I think I'll start buying a gram of gold now every few months! 🤣🤣🤣

[Paul]

45 minutes ago, Upsidedown5318008 said:

Fed hiked rates .25% (as expected)

Gold not really reacting yet

Still ~1610

What does that make the base rate in Micky mouse land now ? 

[modofantasma]

36 minutes ago, Thelonerangershorse said:

And back to £1610, Damn @modofantasma, I wish I'd bought that dip.

Nice and steady suits me 👌🏽

[Bars]

Think it will rise again soon........all the more reason to buy my 1oz krug at pants down price!

[EdwardTeach]

18 minutes ago, GoldenGriffin said:

A drop in interest rate in the next 6 to 12 months will be a bonus.

I wouldn't count on intrest rates coming down any time soon. 🙁

 

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by EdwardTeach

[EdwardTeach]

16 minutes ago, GoldenGriffin said:

This cost of living crisis bloody bites doesn't it!

The term ‘cost of living crisis’ is misleading people.

A ‘currency debasement crisis’ is a more accurate term do describe it.

[GoldenGriffin]

10 minutes ago, EdwardTeach said:

I wouldn't count on intrest rates coming down any time soon. 🙁

 

 

The higher rates mean more debt repayments for governments.

This is good for gold going forward, but I suppose the question is, at what point would the FED need to pivot on rates.

How much collateral damage are they willing to do? Sad 😔 

Edited May 3, 2023 by GoldenGriffin

[SeverinDigsSovereigns]

40 minutes ago, dicker said:

I’m not sure how effective rate rises are given the backdrop of the vast amount of QE that was previously used.  Gold in GBP holding its own.  

I think the prices move with speculation not substance. In other words people have expected rates to rise maybe weeks ago, and gold likely will have moved already. There are guesses that they'll stop rising rates, and perhaps gold will rise. However, rates alone aren't the sole factors, as there are chances of another bank failure, regional conflicts, oil outputs etc. 

Well, all sound bullish on gold though.

Edited May 3, 2023 by SeverinDigsSovereigns

[EdwardTeach]

12 minutes ago, GoldenGriffin said:

The higher rates mean more debt repayments for governments.

This is good for gold going forward, but I suppose the question is, at what point would the FED need to pivot on rates.

How much collateral damage are they willing to do? Sad 😔 

This is either as high or almost as high as rates can go and they will have pivot at some point but that is probably going to be several months away yet. They haven't caused enough damage to economy yet to slow inflation so they will need to hold interest rates here for a good while longer before pivoting. My guess would be at least late Q3 or early Q4 before they start dropping rates again.

Edited May 3, 2023 by EdwardTeach

[CANV]

its all about regional US banks at the moment.  another hike squeezes their balance sheets, some online fear starts withdrawal frenzy.. blah blah JP Morgan picks up another bank for free with taxpayer guarantees. its the perfect business model buy their shares  

gold is up nearly 2 per cent this week in dollars. its just that dollars are now considered a bit terrible..

Edited May 3, 2023 by CANV

[GoldenGriffin]

7 minutes ago, EdwardTeach said:

This is either as high or almost as high as rates can go and they will have pivot at some point but that is probably going to be several months away yet. They haven't caused enough damage to economy yet to slow inflation so they will need to hold interest rates here for a good while longer before pivoting. My guess would be at least late Q3 or early Q4 before they start dropping rates again.

I hope rates reduction is sooner rather than later.

I'd guess at Q3 but let's see what happens from now.

Interesting and challenging times ahead.

[Thelonerangershorse]

57 minutes ago, GoldenGriffin said:

That'll be my mortgage going up again, yay! 

Not unless there's a yorkshire in the USA.

BOE doesn't meet until next thursday.

[ant1882]

£1620!

[CANV]

US mortgage rates are based on longer maturities then here in the UK. we tend to go for 2 years. the US 10 or longer. the rate hike like today has actually seen a small fall in longer dated yields.. 

anyway back to gold.  what regional bank is next. there will be one along soon going bust.  

[GoldenGriffin]

29 minutes ago, Thelonerangershorse said:

Not unless there's a yorkshire in the USA.

BOE doesn't meet until next thursday.

Thnks, but sadly I'm expecting BOE to follow...

Plus, the other day, I saw a UK bank to increase their rate by 0.25 by May 2023.

Edited May 3, 2023 by GoldenGriffin

[SeverinDigsSovereigns]

4 hours ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

Both of those are true. On reflection I guess $10K/oz is feasible within our lifetimes but it would necessitate the dollar being obliterated. Excluding rampant inflation or currency crises I don't believe it's possible. Of course it depends how old you are, I don't expect to still be here in 50 years 🤣

It does make one wonder how old most people on this forum are. People in different age groups tend to see things differently, and some opinions change as they grow older whilst others remain the same throughout their lifespan. No one can make predictions without vivid recollections of events of their own, as Hobbs would have called "prudence".

But who knows. The world is going quite mad especially with all the technologies. If it becomes profitable to mine gold on other planets perhaps gold will plummet. Or perhaps trade between planetary colonies would be based on agreed digital currencies like bitcoin because they're limited in the total amounts. Or the worst case scenario when everyone is controlled by a Worldwide Mad Deadly Communist Gangster Computer God as quite comically conceived of by the dear Francis E. Dec, then no one needs any money at all, being complete slaves.

It's almost certain that gold will rise in "price" as defined by the amount of paper currency to buy an ounce. Whether this retains your wealth is another question. True that gold has risen from £1/sovereign to £370/sovereign over the past century, but from various sources the a pound in 1920 could equal £30-£50 in 2023 in terms of purchasing power. In other words, purchasing power of gold has risen (roughly by 10x over a century, NOT 370x). Total output of the society rises too. 

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator

https://www.measuringworth.com/calculators/ukcompare/relativevalue.php?use[]=CPI&use[]=WAGE&year_early=1920&pound71=1&shilling71=&pence71=&amount=1&year_source=1920&year_result=2023 (very interesting website as it does not only calculate the real price but the labour values and unit money as a share of the total economy, GDP maybe )

 

[Upsidedown]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

What does that make the base rate in Micky mouse land now ? 

5.25%

Highest in 16 years apparently

[SeverinDigsSovereigns]

7 minutes ago, GoldenGriffin said:

Thnks, but sadly I'm expecting BOE to follow...

Plus, the other day, I saw a UK bank to increase their rate by 0.25 by May 2023.

No way BOE would not follow. BOE might even do an extra rise compared to the FED given how sticky inflation is here in the UK. The Americans have lots of oil and gas, and they drill them, whereas here we bow to the pressure of a few orange-vested communist lunatic "environmentalists" sitting in the middle of the road. 

The pound will probably rise at the same time. Usually when the pound rises gold rises (in GBP), too, which is very  counterintuitive because weak dollar drives up demand for gold. But this time gold in GBP may well drop because it's a UK-specific problem.

[Paul]

1 minute ago, Upsidedown5318008 said:

5.25%

Highest in 16 years apparently

My usual cut n paste in the thread is to da'mooooooooooooonn:(  but 

Jeez borrowings getting expensive, once they add their 2-3% grift/ profit on top 

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

18 minutes ago, GoldenGriffin said:

Thnks, but sadly I'm expecting BOE to follow...

Plus, the other day, I saw a UK bank to increase their rate by 0.25 by May 2023.

When the Fed hikes then the BoE pretty much has to hike in sympathy, as does the ECB, to protect the relative value of Sterling/Euro. It's particularly important for the UK as a large net importer - a weaker pound causes inflation by itself. To fight inflation if the Fed hikes we must hike too. Conversely if you're Japanese and have been trying to cause inflation for 30 years, when the Fed hikes you freeze or go into the lala land of negative rates. The current BoJ rates are -0.1% for short-term and 0-0.5% for 10-year bonds

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

1 hour ago, GoldenGriffin said:

I hope rates reduction is sooner rather than later.

I'd guess at Q3 but let's see what happens from now.

Interesting and challenging times ahead.

The majority of large fund managers (~35%) are predicting the pivot in Q1 2024:

 

'No cuts until 2024,' says Goldman economist about Fed's likely path on interest rates - MarketWatch

[SeverinDigsSovereigns]

12 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

When the Fed hikes then the BoE pretty much has to hike in sympathy, as does the ECB, to protect the relative value of Sterling/Euro. It's particularly important for the UK as a large net importer - a weaker pound causes inflation by itself. To fight inflation if the Fed hikes we must hike too. Conversely if you're Japanese and have been trying to cause inflation for 30 years, when the Fed hikes you freeze or go into the lala land of negative rates. The current BoJ rates are -0.1% for short-term and 0-0.5% for 10-year bonds

If British worker worked half as hard as the Japanese ones... Also they actually have infrastructure which helps output. There doesn't seem to be a trade union infestation in Japan either.

National mindsets are a real factor. Hard to quantify but it has an impact on how people spend/vote/work/travel. Not that I'm an expert on the Japanese society but they are certainly different.

On the other hand, Japan has not performed very well economically since the 90s, whereas UK and the rest of Europe don't seem to have recovered from 2008. It's easy to see the UK problems as we live here and are constantly told how we're struggling by the media, etc. But the story is more or less the same on the continent. We are poor countries that too often act as if we were rich, and everyone feels entitled that a high standard of life is guaranteed with others obliged to pay our bills, whilst loathing anything that once made us rich, like capitalism, the empires, business, even inequality. |Bad as it sounds, it's the mind set that they'd rather the poor were poorer than the rich were richer, as famously put by Lady Margret, that makes everyone poorer. How many native billionaires do we have in the UK? There is no rich land that grows no riches. 

Edited May 3, 2023 by SeverinDigsSovereigns

[HerefordBullyun]

10 minutes ago, SeverinDigsSovereigns said:

If British worker worked half as hard as the Japanese ones... Also they actually have infrastructure which helps output. There doesn't seem to be a trade union infestation in Japan either.

The problem is the japanese are a conformist race and theyve been duped by the dollar and thier own government...

Edited May 3, 2023 by HerefordBullyun

[SeverinDigsSovereigns]

4 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

The problem is the japanese are a conformist race and theyve been duped by the dollar and thier own government...

Are we not?