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Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.


Message added by ChrisSilver

To discuss price action in USD instead, please see here: https://thesilverforum.com/topic/19861-silver-monitoring-thread-usd-only/

 

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4 minutes ago, Thelonerangershorse said:

No idea, got in last night and there were 10 new pages so I just skipped to the last one, everyone else was posting dots, so I just joined in.

Secret morse code too bad we missed it!

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11 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

This is inaccurate IMHO

It might add a few pennies to low cost electronics but the silver price is negligible compared with the price of an iPhone (0.34g of silver) or a laptop. It would affect solar panels (20g+ for an average 2m^2 panel) and EVs (a few ounces) but silver is not the primary cost driver in those technologies. The manufacturers can shrug off silver mooning but they can't shrug off oil, labour, shipping costs or regulation/taxation

Silver is used in electronics due to its unique chemical properties, not because it is cheap or scarce

Solar panels and batteries are all about efficiency. It is simply not possible to replace silver in those technologies without compromising the entire product, especially for solar panels but also for batteries where a few % in real world efficiency gains is considered revolutionary. 

Agreed.

To add, solar panels are not just one monolithic thing.  They are constantly changing the configuration of the components.  There are two main drivers: cost and efficiency.  The cycle has typically been:

  1. New panel configuration is developed which is higher efficiency than previous, but uses more silver.
  2. Design and implementation is slowly refined to reduce the amount of silver, and therefore cost, while maintaining efficiency.
  3. Efficiency plateaus.
  4. Go to 1.

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Douglas Hubbard: Never attribute to malice or stupidity that which can be explained by moderately rational individuals following incentives in a complex system of interactions.

Carl Sagan: One of the great commandments of science is, "Mistrust arguments from authority."

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3 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

Glowing. To celebrate I'm off to frolic in the sunshine 😁

You really should post more mate, you're kind of wasted in the NBS as only a few people can see what you post

I certainly am wasted... most of the time.  🤣

12 Beginner Tips for Better Coin Photos

Everything you need to take great coin photos

Douglas Hubbard: Never attribute to malice or stupidity that which can be explained by moderately rational individuals following incentives in a complex system of interactions.

Carl Sagan: One of the great commandments of science is, "Mistrust arguments from authority."

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1 hour ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

This is inaccurate IMHO

It might add a few pennies to low cost electronics but the silver price is negligible compared with the price of an iPhone (0.34g of silver) or a laptop. It would affect solar panels (20g+ for an average 2m^2 panel) and EVs (a few ounces) but silver is not the primary cost driver in those technologies. The manufacturers can shrug off silver mooning but they can't shrug off oil, labour, shipping costs or regulation/taxation

Silver is used in electronics due to its unique chemical properties, not because it is cheap or scarce

Solar panels and batteries are all about efficiency. It is simply not possible to replace silver in those technologies without compromising the entire product, especially for solar panels but also for batteries where a few % in real world efficiency gains is considered revolutionary. 

This is inaccurate IMHO.

Silver mooning would put a massive dent in solar panel production and uptake if alternative metals weren't readily available.  Right now Silver is cheap, so it's great to use the best material in panels, but that will change if Silver moons.  The talk of Silver mooning stretches all the way to lurid visions of it becoming as valuable as gold, but for the sake of argument if we limit mooning at 10:1 Gold Silver ratio it's still going to use about £150 in your typical 2m panel.  I read that currently panels are around $150 for 2m, so that would more than double its price and have a huge impact on economic viability.  That cannot be absorbed.  No way.  Larger amounts of Aluminium can be substituted for heat dissipation, and copper isn't actually far off in terms of electrical conductivity for your typical non critical use.  Sure they might not be the A1 most efficient best panels on the market, but they just make them 2.2m instead.  The world is full of substitution when things get too expensive, and the uses for Silver will dry up when Silver gets too pricey.

New profile pic to support the current thing, because it's current year.

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3 minutes ago, silversky said:

This is inaccurate IMHO.

Silver mooning would put a massive dent in solar panel production and uptake if alternative metals weren't readily available.  Right now Silver is cheap, so it's great to use the best material in panels, but that will change if Silver moons.  The talk of Silver mooning stretches all the way to lurid visions of it becoming as valuable as gold, but for the sake of argument if we limit mooning at 10:1 Gold Silver ratio it's still going to use about £150 in your typical 2m panel.  I read that currently panels are around $150 for 2m, so that would more than double its price and have a huge impact on economic viability.  That cannot be absorbed.  No way.  Larger amounts of Aluminium can be substituted for heat dissipation, and copper isn't actually far off in terms of electrical conductivity for your typical non critical use.  Sure they might not be the A1 most efficient best panels on the market, but they just make them 2.2m instead.  The world is full of substitution when things get too expensive, and the uses for Silver will dry up when Silver gets too pricey.

Tomahawk missiles will still use it. 
Remember when everyone said that silver price would crater when digital cameras came along. There will always be a use for it, and even if some is substituted for cheaper less conductive materials, there is always a demand as circuitry and chips are needed in everything nowadays

The closer the collapse of an Empire, the crazier it's laws - Marcus Tullius Cicero

We had the warning in 2006-9 but central banks ignored it and just added new worthless debt to existing worthless debt to create worthless debt squared – an obvious recipe for disaster. - Egon von Greyerz

https://www.thesilverforum.com/topic/83864-uk-bank-regulations/

 

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50 minutes ago, silversky said:

This is inaccurate IMHO.

Silver mooning would put a massive dent in solar panel production and uptake if alternative metals weren't readily available.  Right now Silver is cheap, so it's great to use the best material in panels, but that will change if Silver moons.  The talk of Silver mooning stretches all the way to lurid visions of it becoming as valuable as gold, but for the sake of argument if we limit mooning at 10:1 Gold Silver ratio it's still going to use about £150 in your typical 2m panel.  I read that currently panels are around $150 for 2m, so that would more than double its price and have a huge impact on economic viability.  That cannot be absorbed.  No way.  Larger amounts of Aluminium can be substituted for heat dissipation, and copper isn't actually far off in terms of electrical conductivity for your typical non critical use.  Sure they might not be the A1 most efficient best panels on the market, but they just make them 2.2m instead.  The world is full of substitution when things get too expensive, and the uses for Silver will dry up when Silver gets too pricey.

Can you give sources for your calculations? Below are some figures for the UK:

Screenshot2024-05-18152734.thumb.png.162faa87444309e232056abb13ef8ebf.png

 

From above the average cost for a complete system of 2m^2 solar panels like the 1-2 bedroom option is approx £5000-8000 for 5-8 panels (10-16m^2). That's roughly £1,000 per panel including installation, ignoring any potential excess costs like the type of solar panel, installation complexities or extra equipment

The size of the panels is important. It's not accurate to state you can just increase the size of the panels using silver alternatives and not accrue cost penalties elsewhere due to the extra mass and dimensions of the panels, plus manufacturing costs. Re-modulating a factory or network of factories to produce a solar panel with different dimensions in itself could massively outstrip any potential cost savings from using cheaper materials. 

From the above, it's not unreasonable to state the effective cost of a set of 2m^2 panels is £1,000 per panel and you need a minimum of 5 to create a viable system. If we assume each panel uses 20g of silver that equates to £16 per panel, £80 for the total system, or roughly 1.6% of the total cost of installation and operation of the system

That's at the current silver price. If we quadruple the cost of silver to £100/oz, then excluding all other factors, the cost of silver would represent roughly 6.4% of the total system. Of course if silver goes to that price we must assume other metals, including base metals, alloys and composites, will also increase, as will various other factors. If we were to substitute for copper, well, copper is up roughly 34% in 2024 YTD and aluminium is up roughly 11%. We've also seen (minimum) wage increases, along with a dramatic rise in energy and shipping costs over the past few years. The biggest factor for solar is government subsidies and regulation which can be 30-50% of the installation ticket price.

I'm not trying to be argumentative but it's not correct to say that a mooning silver price will have a substantial influence on the effective holistic cost of silver-intensive electronic products, including solar and EVs. The effect on things like electrical switches, computers, phones and so forth is negligible. If it takes 0.34g of silver to make an iPhone it doesn't matter if silver costs $30 or $300/oz, the cost of the silver content is negligible to the manufacturer, theoretically rising from $0.34 to $3.40 per device (assuming $300/oz silver), out of a sale price of $1200 (iPhone 15 pro max base model, no cover or accessories) - this would make silver content equivalent to 0.28% of the sale price, it's currently 0.028% which is barely a rounding error 

Specifically with regards solar technology, the latest advancement on the scene is perovskite composite cells. These cells theoretically reduce the silver content in panels by a factor of roughly three compared to traditional silicon solar cells. This reduction in silver usage can lower the silver constituent as a percentage of the total research and development, manufacturing, installation, and operational costs of a solar system

 

Mind is primary and mass-energy is derivative

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Dude, solar panel "installation" costs are very different from the actual costs of the panels.  I've recently gone through all the dreadful harassment of the salesmen speeches when exploring a tiny solar installation to solve an EPC (energy performance certificate) issue.  Thankfully in the end I managed to avoid them, they are the new double glazing, with sales wonks plugging out crazy numbers.  Installation includes far more than just panels as you know.

New profile pic to support the current thing, because it's current year.

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2 minutes ago, silversky said:

Dude, solar panel "installation" costs are very different from the actual costs of the panels.  I've recently gone through all the dreadful harassment of the salesmen speeches when exploring a tiny solar installation to solve an EPC (energy performance certificate) issue.  Thankfully in the end I managed to avoid them, they are the new double glazing, with sales wonks plugging out crazy numbers.  Installation includes far more than just panels as you know.

 

9 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

Can you give sources for your calculations? Below are some figures for the UK:

Screenshot2024-05-18152734.thumb.png.162faa87444309e232056abb13ef8ebf.png

 

From above the average cost for a complete system of 2m^2 solar panels like the 1-2 bedroom option is approx £5000-8000 for 5-8 panels (10-16m^2). That's roughly £1,000 per panel including installation, ignoring any potential excess costs like the type of solar panel, installation complexities or extra equipment

The size of the panels is important. It's not accurate to state you can just increase the size of the panels using silver alternatives and not accrue cost penalties elsewhere due to the extra mass and dimensions of the panels, plus manufacturing costs. Re-modulating a factory or network of factories to produce a solar panel with different dimensions in itself could massively outstrip any potential cost savings from using cheaper materials. 

From the above, it's not unreasonable to state the effective cost of a set of 2m^2 panels is £1,000 per panel and you need a minimum of 5 to create a viable system. If we assume each panel uses 20g of silver that equates to £16 per panel, £80 for the total system, or roughly 1.6% of the total cost of installation and operation of the system

That's at the current silver price. If we quadruple the cost of silver to £100/oz, then excluding all other factors, the cost of silver would represent roughly 6.4% of the total system. Of course if silver goes to that price we must assume other metals, including base metals, alloys and composites, will also increase, as will various other factors. If we were to substitute for copper, well, copper is up roughly 34% in 2024 YTD and aluminium is up roughly 11%. We've also seen (minimum) wage increases, along with a dramatic rise in energy and shipping costs over the past few years. The biggest factor for solar is government subsidies and regulation which can be 30-50% of the installation ticket price.

I'm not trying to be argumentative but it's not correct to say that a mooning silver price will have a substantial influence on the effective holistic cost of silver-intensive electronic products, including solar and EVs. The effect on things like electrical switches, computers, phones and so forth is negligible. If it takes 0.34g of silver to make an iPhone it doesn't matter if silver costs $30 or $300/oz, the cost of the silver content is negligible to the manufacturer, theoretically rising from $0.34 to $3.40 per device (assuming $300/oz silver), out of a sale price of $1200 (iPhone 15 pro max base model, no cover or accessories) - this would make silver content equivalent to 0.28% of the sale price, it's currently 0.028% which is barely a rounding error 

Specifically with regards solar technology, the latest advancement on the scene is perovskite composite cells. These cells theoretically reduce the silver content in panels by a factor of roughly three compared to traditional silicon solar cells. This reduction in silver usage can lower the silver constituent as a percentage of the total research and development, manufacturing, installation, and operational costs of a solar system

 

My bugbear with solar is the inefficiency. less than 30% conversion. It needs to be closer to 65%, then a rush would be on by people to have them installed. We could then almost eliminate the need for wind.

The closer the collapse of an Empire, the crazier it's laws - Marcus Tullius Cicero

We had the warning in 2006-9 but central banks ignored it and just added new worthless debt to existing worthless debt to create worthless debt squared – an obvious recipe for disaster. - Egon von Greyerz

https://www.thesilverforum.com/topic/83864-uk-bank-regulations/

 

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6 hours ago, Thelonerangershorse said:

Not always, for example I have a 1kg bar and would happily do a direct swap for a couple of sovs.

(Provided they're nice shiny new rose gold sovs, not those faded yellow tat)

I think you’re the only person I know who prefers the rose gold colour to the yellow colour.

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42 minutes ago, Gruff said:

My bugbear with solar is the inefficiency. less than 30% conversion. It needs to be closer to 65%, then a rush would be on by people to have them installed. We could then almost eliminate the need for wind.

I'd love to discuss this further, but this isn't really on topic, and I fear any thread more relevant would descend into chaos and conspiracy theories far to quickly to be productive.

12 Beginner Tips for Better Coin Photos

Everything you need to take great coin photos

Douglas Hubbard: Never attribute to malice or stupidity that which can be explained by moderately rational individuals following incentives in a complex system of interactions.

Carl Sagan: One of the great commandments of science is, "Mistrust arguments from authority."

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1 minute ago, Shuaib121 said:

I think you’re the only person I know who prefers the rose gold colour to the yellow colour.

He may have been sarcastic.

Also, I actually really don't mind the colour that much.  Unfortunately, it was accompanied by a significant lowering in die quality (for bullion sovs) which I hate - the so-called jelly mould.

12 Beginner Tips for Better Coin Photos

Everything you need to take great coin photos

Douglas Hubbard: Never attribute to malice or stupidity that which can be explained by moderately rational individuals following incentives in a complex system of interactions.

Carl Sagan: One of the great commandments of science is, "Mistrust arguments from authority."

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1 minute ago, Charliemouse said:

He may have been sarcastic.

Also, I actually really don't mind the colour that much.  Unfortunately, it was accompanied by a significant lowering in die quality (for bullion sovs) which I hate - the so-called jelly mould.

I heavily dislike them to the point i avoid them entirely. I want my gold to look like, well gold.

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4 minutes ago, Charliemouse said:

I'd love to discuss this further, but this isn't really on topic, and I fear any thread more relevant would descend into chaos and conspiracy theories far to quickly to be productive.

Fortunatly, we already have a thread for chaos, conspiracy theories and non productive stuff.

"To get to where I need to be, I start by walking away from where I am."

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2 minutes ago, Charliemouse said:

He may have been sarcastic.

Also, I actually really don't mind the colour that much.  Unfortunately, it was accompanied by a significant lowering in die quality (for bullion sovs) which I hate - the so-called jelly mould.

 

6 minutes ago, Shuaib121 said:

I think you’re the only person I know who prefers the rose gold colour to the yellow colour.

 

1 minute ago, Shuaib121 said:

I heavily dislike them to the point i avoid them entirely. I want my gold to look like, well gold.

You wanna theory, @Charliemouse?

Take that:

Russian gold colour. Adopted by Royal Mint as a standard of colour for the british sovereign coin.

Can someone to explain me why?😁

Screenshot_20240518-170324.thumb.png.4adfc07b69048bbc7c5f2530b8c7539e.png

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7 hours ago, Thelonerangershorse said:

Not always, for example I have a 1kg bar and would happily do a direct swap for a couple of sovs.

(Provided they're nice shiny new rose gold sovs, not those faded yellow tat)

Pretty sure most people would take advantage of that deal TBH

Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of gentlemen, barter is the money of peasants, and debt is the money of slaves

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11 hours ago, FriedrichVonHayek said:

The only way to make any profit off Silver in the UK is to buy scrap, though it is very time consuming trawling through eBay and going to auctions.

Or you can just use Bullionvault.

For me buying Silver coins in the UK is pointless due to premiums and VAT.

There was a time when you could buy it from Europe and flip it on eBay but those days are long gone.

Not entirely true...

Can make money on collector coins and on the dips that come within the year, plenty of bargains and money to be made - buying and selling on TSF.

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