Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[PapaLazarou]

3 minutes ago, silversky said:

If it gets too pricey to stick it into solar panels and mobile phones relatively cheaply, they'll just use aluminium.

This is the one fact that appears to have been largely (if not completely) ignored by those quoting Chinese et al solar panel forecast as a basis for gargantuan hikes in the silver price.

Substitution - basic economics.

Aluminium is the 2nd most reflective element.

[AOB]

3 minutes ago, modofantasma said:

Say for eg if you ultimately wanted to buy a house but you've bought gold instead as an attempt to reduce your fiat requirement you could do a gold to property ratio for your chosen house.

Would gold to s&p or gold to FTSE 100 or gold to Barclays be useful or just interesting to some?

I do think of the metals v.s House scenario quite a lot.. as that’s a potential exit plan for me and I have always been interested in other peoples outlook 2-5yr, 10yr, 20+yr plan - whether that be metals, Stocks, Mortgage etc etc..

I moved away from plans like 1oz gold per every 3/4 tubes of silver brits and now look at metals as a hobby/ retail therapy(as it’s better than buying sh*te and keeps me kind of grounded I.e poor😅).

But all in all, would love to hear peoples short & Long term plans - if you’d like to share?

[Charliemouse]

10 minutes ago, silversky said:

Did I miss something last night?  

No one's talking.

[treetop1280]

2 minutes ago, AOB said:

I do think of the metals v.s House scenario quite a lot.. as that’s a potential exit plan for me and I have always been interested in other peoples outlook 2-5yr, 10yr, 20+yr plan - whether that be metals, Stocks, Mortgage etc etc..

I moved away from plans like 1oz gold per every 3/4 tubes of silver brits and now look at metals as a hobby/ retail therapy(as it’s better than buying sh*te and keeps me kind of grounded I.e poor😅).

But all in all, would love to hear peoples short & Long term plans - if you’d like to share?

Yep pretty similar view , buy coins , for the pretty pictures on them , then sell them ,  Or give them to the kids  , and buy gold to give to the kids , maybe if they need to get there hands in a couple of quid in years to come.  They can sell it at one of the main dealers ,  , 

[ZRPMs]

I suppose the only ratio I've held to with respect to Silver and gold is the production ratio. I like to have between 8 and 12 to 1 silver to gold. It's been mentioned already that silver and gold are allies not enemy's. I must admit I do prefer gold if only for the storage concern. Weight wise I currently have just over 9 times the weight in silver to my gold yet the value of the gold is just over 8 times that of the silver so practically if your in to physical, gold is better. However, when it comes to ETF's or BullionVault, May be silver has the edge. 

[FriedrichVonHayek]

I only see Silver as a trade to buy more Gold, I'm in my early 50's so I will be trading Silver for Gold for the last time, as these cycles take years to play out.

Maybe as new technologies come on line Silver's price will be permanently higher but that's a huge gamble.

If the Gold price keeps moving higher and becomes unaffordable, then its a big probability that people with limited means buy the perceived next best metal, which is Silver.

Then add in the stories that we've heard hundreds of times about how undervalued Silver is, then you have the beginnings of a mania.

[AOB]

10 minutes ago, treetop1280 said:

Yep pretty similar view , buy coins , for the pretty pictures on them , then sell them ,  Or give them to the kids  , and buy gold to give to the kids , maybe if they need to get there hands in a couple of quid in years to come.  They can sell it at one of the main dealers ,  , 

Yes it’s always good way to look at it, it’s like buying new clothes/ shoes and soon.. but you don’t loss as much money, all going well 🤞🏽😁

[AOB]

4 minutes ago, FriedrichVonHayek said:

I only see Silver as a trade to buy more Gold, I'm in my early 50's so I will be trading Silver for Gold for the last time, as these cycles take years to play out.

Maybe as new technologies come on line Silver's price will be permanently higher but that's a huge gamble.

If the Gold price keeps moving higher and becomes unaffordable, then its a big probability that people with limited means buy the perceived next best metal, which is Silver.

Then add in the stories that we've heard hundreds of times about how undervalued Silver is, then you have the beginnings of a mania.

That’s a good strategy indeed, I have done that also many times buying silver to trade over to gold.. it’s a longer horizon play indeed - though shows your patience and you don’t act eratically based on small price swings.

Thanks for sharing sir👍🏽

[Charliemouse]

1 hour ago, treetop1280 said:

@Charliemouse, Ill answer  your questions as a new comer haven’t been doing it long.  I only buy silver coins for the pictures on the coins , as in for collection , I’m not interested in spot price at all,  , say your average coin is sold for £27 , yet the same coin with say “ superman in the back will go for more money, , as there are more collectors worldwide of coins , than there are for people who buy it for its metals content ?? , and as for gold , the complete opposite , don’t care what the coin is , or the condition , only for the metal content and what it’s worth in pound notes , - that is just my opinion - which counts for nothing 👍

Honestly mate, I am closer to your position than I am to many people's here.  I am a collector 90% and a stacker 10%.  I hardly ever buy for the investment.  I buy for the shiny, the challenge, the history, and the interest.  That goes for gold and silver.  That doesn't mean I don't at least pause when I think something is a bad investment.  But it is not my primary concern.

[HerefordBullyun]

20 minutes ago, Agaupl said:

. 
platinum/gold ratio is the most compelling case imho. 
 

 

Platinum will be dead for a long time - you know why? because palladium is taking it over.

Because its cheaper in the car manufacturing industry.... and now its more readily available and cheaper... Think green 

[HerefordBullyun]

57 minutes ago, katyc said:

 

I'm off to do some gardening and get my chebs burnt while the sun is out.

Wait till you get friction burns on pairs of curtains like I do....

You know I'm a country boy at heart and I certainly believe in the saying about agricultural sayings - suns out plums out.... !

Edited May 18 by HerefordBullyun

[stefffana]

3 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Because its cheaper in the car manufacturing industry.... and now its more readily available and cheaper... Think green 

 

[HerefordBullyun]

Just now, stefffana said:

 

ironic isnt it.....

[HerefordBullyun]

1 hour ago, FriedrichVonHayek said:

 

As George Gammon says "there are no certainties only probabilities".

 

Lové the Gammon - he knows his stuff.

even better with Ham egg n chips - shove ya pineapple mind.....

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

3 hours ago, Charliemouse said:

Honest question from someone that hasn't been doing this very long.

What is the point of the gold/silver ratio?  Other than a fun derivative stat that people talk about (a lot), or a way to measure your own holdings, does it actually matter?

I mean they are two separately traded commodities.  They have completely different supply and demand chains.  So why does their ratio matter?  I guess historically people would trade between them as prices fluctuated, but these days there are hundreds of thousands of things people (institutions) could just as easily move money between.  And literally no one agrees on what it 'should' be.

So why measure it?

TL:DR: The ratio of gold:silver in earth's crust is between 15 and 20:1 (intrinsic value). Divergences from this ratio are (derivative financial) market values. Studying the difference between the two can yield many insights

Gold and silver are money (monetary metals, gold standard, sterling standard, etc). If we want to value money fairly then the gold:silver ratio tells us which one is overvalued or undervalued relative to their naturally occurring abundance

While it's true that gold and silver are different elements with different applications, gold and silver deposits usually occur together (electrum) with silver usually being considered a by-product of gold mining or vice-versa depending on the geology. It's uncommon to find either gold or silver in isolation thus the two are linked in terms of production and share a lot of the same supply chains and logistics. 

You are correct that nobody agrees what the g:s "should be" but we know what it is in terms of the planet

If we look back over history many of the most powerful rulers have attempted to fix the ratio. The Egyptians had it 1:1. The Romans had it 12:1. The Revolutionary Americans had it 15:1. The divergence in the ratio became a thing after the end of the British Sterling standard and the end of the American gold standard. When everything went to paper/derivatives and there were abrupt changes in regulation, the ratio varied wildly. (Intrinsic vs Market Value)

Intrinsic Value vs. Market Value

Intrinsic value suggests that an asset's value is inherently based on its natural characteristics and scarcity. For gold and silver this would imply their value should align with their natural abundance ratio. However, market value is determined by supply and demand dynamics, influenced by various factors such as industrial use, investor sentiment and economic policies.

Industrial demand, coupled with speculative trading, can cause significant fluctuations in silver's market price, often diverging from its intrinsic value

If we are being hard liners like the governments of yesteryear, we should set the ratio somewhere in the 15 to 20:1 range. As many analysts have pointed out lately, that ratio might come back but there are two ways it can happen - either gold plummets or silver appreciates. Most see gold plummeting as being both unlikely and undesirable, therefore we have to adjust our expectations of what the ratio "should be". If we use simple measures an acceptable modern ratio might be in the 35 or 50-1 range.

We could also explain a higher ratio by showing that silver is slightly more difficult thus expensive to mine and refine than gold - gold being a wonderfully chemically stable element that refuses to be corroded, oxidised or tarnished. Gold is denser and more malleable than silver. Silver is also a wonder element with unique properties and these properties are why gold and silver are important, it just so happens the properties of silver make it more volatile both in the physical and financial world. 

The ratio is important because it is a measure of fair value, it's like asking why do people care to measure gold/GBP or GBP/USD? They are measures of fair/relative value, intrinsic value vs market value. For instance the GBP/USD hit a record low under Liz Truss, did that make the intrinsic value of houses in England go down or was it just a temporal fluctuation that had little true explanatory power in the physical world?

Most "true money" advocates like stackers favour intrinsic value > market value as the properties of one are set by the laws of physics while the properties of the other are set by the laws of man. Natural law tends to be a better and more independent arbiter of truth and fairness than human law. 

[Russell]

Testing my stack today and love this piece of kit.  The only one sovereign that does not pass the ping test has passed Phew!

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

Another useful way to conceptualise the G:S and Intrinsic vs Market Value, production and refining costs, market dynamics, is to examine the Intrinsic Value vs Market Value at dealer websites

Chards and most major dealers will show the intrinsic value of a coin beside its market value - e.g. a 999 silver Britannia (2023 KCIII) has an intrinsic value of £24.79 but a market value of £35.39. A piece of scrap 925 or 900 silver will have the same intrinsic value measured in pure silver content but a different market value to reflect supply, demand, production and refinement costs, with the market value of less pure silver being closer to the intrinsic value than pure or 999 silver. 

2023 1 Ounce Silver Britannia Coin | Chards - From £35.21

[sixgun]

The biggest cost in mining / refining gold and silver is energy.
A lot of silver is a by-product of gold and base metal extraction. It could be seen a coming for free.

Asking Chat GPT i see this.

What is the average cost of mining and refining gold and silver?

 

ChatGPT

The average cost of mining and refining gold and silver can vary widely based on a number of factors including the location of the mine, the quality of the ore, the scale of operations, and the technology used. Here's a general overview:

Gold:

1. Mining Costs:

   • The cost to mine gold varies but typically ranges between $600 and $1,000 per ounce. These costs include the direct mining costs, processing, and transportation.

2. All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC):

   • This is a comprehensive measure of the cost to produce gold, including sustaining capital, administrative costs, and exploration. AISC typically ranges from $900 to $1,300 per ounce.

3. Refining Costs:

   • Refining gold typically costs between $5 and $20 per ounce, depending on the method used and the purity required.

Silver:

1. Mining Costs:

   • The cost to mine silver varies and is generally lower than gold. Typical costs can range from $10 to $30 per ounce. This includes extraction and processing costs.

2. All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC):

   • For silver, AISC can range from $12 to $20 per ounce. This includes all the associated costs of production.

3. Refining Costs:

   • Refining silver is also less expensive than gold, typically costing between $0.50 and $2 per ounce.

Factors Affecting Costs:

1. Location: Costs can be significantly higher in remote locations where infrastructure is limited.
2. Ore Grade: Higher-grade ores (higher concentration of gold or silver) reduce the cost per ounce since more metal can be extracted from a smaller amount of ore.
3. Energy Costs: Mining is energy-intensive, so the cost of energy (electricity, diesel) can impact overall costs.
4. Labor Costs: The cost of labor can vary significantly depending on the country and the skill level required.
5. Regulatory Costs: Environmental regulations and other governmental requirements can add to the cost of mining and refining.
6. Technology: Advances in mining and refining technology can lower costs over time.

Industry Data:

To get the most accurate and up-to-date information, industry reports and financial statements from major mining companies (such as Barrick Gold, Newmont Corporation for gold, and Pan American Silver, Fresnillo for silver) are valuable resources. These companies regularly publish detailed cost breakdowns in their annual reports and quarterly updates.

Conclusion:

While the average costs mentioned provide a general overview, the specific costs for mining and refining gold and silver can vary significantly based on a multitude of factors. Always refer to the latest industry data and reports for the most accurate and detailed information.

As we can see the all in sustaining cost (AISC) of an ounce of gold is up to $1300 and that of an ounce of silver is $20. That gives you a AISC ratio of 65.

One might reasonably argue the GS ratio should be around 65 - not that gold should be $1300 and silver $20 but a multiple of the 65 ratio. However there are confounding factors. The first is that silver is consumed, so above ground gold accumulates whilst silver 'disappears' and no longer contribute to the supply chain. Indeed we have seen deficits in silver in recent years - when did you ever hear of a gold deficit other than at Fort Knox?

We could argue that there is an awful lot of gold around that only cost a few dollars to mine whilst silver at similar prices has in the main long gone to the municipal dump. Silver is actually needed - it may be replaced at some point by alternatives but currently it just isn't worth the effort. Consumption continues to climb especially in the field of Green technology. If the demand for silver radically outstrips supply we would and some might say will see intense competition for silver. If a company's production line for high end mobile devices grinds to a halt due to insufficient silver we would surely see the price of silver going up multiples of the present level. If the silver in a phone currently costing $1 had to go to $20 to secure supply, then so be it, the consumer will have to pay and at the same time we see silver at $100's per ounce.

 

Edited May 18 by sixgun

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

Sorry for the tl;drs, it's a disease. If brevity is a virtue than I am morally bankrupt 😁

[PapaLazarou]

2 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

If brevity is a virtue than I am morally bankrupt 

TL;DR

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

2 hours ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

@katyc I’m not ridiculing silver, there far wiser and richer people here than me, when I ask all these silver financial experts to tell me about their personal successes over the decades it all goes a little on he quiet side……don’t you find that odd?  
 

I’m allowed to ask questions as this is how people make sound financial decisions, rather than going along with the the crowed spouting the same rhetoric in fear of looking like the are going against the grain. 
 

I’m not scared to ask questions as I’m far better for asking questions then blindly going along.
 

@katyc I’m not against silver, I’m against the horrific financial advise out there around sliver, when you have seen a couple buy 2 monster boxes of silver on the back of  miss guided advice and have to sell it back losing 8k in 2 weeks, there needs to be a far more balanced view point not just a polarised self back scratching opinions which of many don’t even stand up to the smallest bit of scrutiny……and if anyone asks questions they against silver?  Come on @katyc we are more grown up than this aren’t we? 

 

Come on mate. Silver is up 33.5% in the last 3 months and gold is up 19% in the same period. Both are great investments, beating inflation and are success stories

[Agaupl]

52 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Platinum will be dead for a long time - you know why? because palladium is taking it over.

Because its cheaper in the car manufacturing industry.... and now its more readily available and cheaper... Think green 

It already took over motor production… and it’s now tooling up for platinum again as palladium rose so high, which takes years. Hence palladium price has dropped through the floor. Now platinum is increasing share for automotive use. At $3000 and oz manufacturing changed their mind 
 

Plus the huge supply shocks from Russia and South Africa. 

Edited May 18 by Agaupl

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

1 hour ago, silversky said:

I always thought the gold silver ratio made more sense when displayed in logarithmic format.  It shows the small differences as small up at the high end of the scale where we have been, and the actual large differences as large down around the magic 16:1 area.  It indicates visually the real value change required to return to that area..

My thoughts on getting back to 16:1 are that its not likely for long if ever.  There are plenty of metals that are rare and also cheap.  So why should Silver ever be highly valuable again just because it is rare?  It's not just rarity that gives Gold its value.  Just because Silver once held monetary value like gold, does not mean that it ever will again.  And if it gets too pricey to stick it into solar panels and mobile phones relatively cheaply, they'll just use aluminium and copper instead.  All that will happen is that they'll accept that the heat or electrical transfer isn't the best in the world, but that it's nearly as good in the substitute metal and that they need to build slightly bigger or more items to accomplish a similar end goal.

Not having Silver won't be a deal breaker for many modern electrical products.  But it will take time to changeover to other materials as Silver gets progressively more expensive.  During that changeover, Silver will become very expensive imho.  But after big products abandon it in favour of redesign to cheaper albeit slightly less effective alternatives, Silver will crash again just like the 80's and 2010's.

I'm a big fan of Silver, and I still believe that it will one day make a moon-shot into three figures as an industrial shortage finally takes hold.  But it won't last long as a said above.  There are alternatives when it gets too pricey.

This is inaccurate IMHO

It might add a few pennies to low cost electronics but the silver price is negligible compared with the price of an iPhone (0.34g of silver) or a laptop. It would affect solar panels (20g+ for an average 2m^2 panel) and EVs (a few ounces) but silver is not the primary cost driver in those technologies. The manufacturers can shrug off silver mooning but they can't shrug off oil, labour, shipping costs or regulation/taxation

Silver is used in electronics due to its unique chemical properties, not because it is cheap or scarce

Solar panels and batteries are all about efficiency. It is simply not possible to replace silver in those technologies without compromising the entire product, especially for solar panels but also for batteries where a few % in real world efficiency gains is considered revolutionary. 

[Spyder]

11 hours ago, theman73 said:

I can show you the messages if need it

This must be one of reason why you were asking for new investment ideas a few month ago to probably get out of selling on here (or if forced to).

I remember a similar thing happening to Presley when he worked a way to sell cheap silver and he got hounded out.  I know he case was slightly different as he had be previously been a banned member under a different name. 

[Thelonerangershorse]

1 hour ago, silversky said:

 

 

Did I miss something last night?  

No idea, got in last night and there were 10 new pages so I just skipped to the last one, everyone else was posting dots, so I just joined in.