Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[Paul]

5 minutes ago, 9x883 said:

First bank collapsed this weekend. Gold up tonight?

Pennsylvania's Republic First - USA 

The "first" USA bank of 2024 to go "breasts up" ironically 

[Petra]

13 minutes ago, 9x883 said:

First bank collapsed this weekend. Gold up tonight?

Perhaps … as an excuse to, bank like that unless you have money in it isn’t any great thing in the scheme of things🤔

[Thelonerangershorse]

Quote from the CBS news article:

"The lender is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail in the U.S. in 2024. The last bank failure  — Citizens Bank, based in Sac City, Iowa — was in November 2023.

In a strong economy, an average of only four or five banks close each year."

[Bratnia]

30 minutes ago, Thelonerangershorse said:

Quote from the CBS news article:

"The lender is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail in the U.S. in 2024. The last bank failure  — Citizens Bank, based in Sac City, Iowa — was in November 2023.

In a strong economy, an average of only four or five banks close each year."

People deposit (lend) money to banks typically for low interest rates and where the borrower sets the terms and conditions. Banks then play heads they win tails the taxpayer bails them out game-play. In good times heads comes up more often.

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

Banking crisis? If you're a small or mid-sized bank with exposure to commercial real estate then you're bread getting closer to the grill. The small banks are technically insolvent without the BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program). If uncle Feddy and auntie Treasury decide not to give any Christmas presents this year then things could get really interesting

 

 

The largest outflows from US banks since 9/11 - the money has been dropped in gold, stocks and crypto:

 

 

Rates at 5.25-5.5% has the same effect as uncle Feddy giving his nephew a haircut at the kitchen table. Results will vary depending on hairstyle. If the nephew was smart enough to shave their head (hedge effectively) then uncle Feddy can't mess up their look. If the nephew has long, flowing multi-coloured locks and practices identity politics, like SVB, then uncle Feddy is going to make sure they have a bad year

 

 

This doesn't just apply to the US or to commercial banks. It applies equally to the UK/EU and to the Bank of England. They have a similar warehouse of bonds whose open market value declines the higher rates become. It's fine for the BoE as George Osborne agreed at the time (this mess started in 2008/9) that the taxpayer would pick up the bill if the BoE made losses when selling bonds. So the BoE has been selling bonds and we have been picking up the tab. The BoE and the US banks could and should hold their bonds to maturity to minimise their losses. A commercial bank may come under pressure from shareholders or lenders but the BoE has no such concerns:

Taxpayers brace for £100bn money-printing bill – as George Osborne says it’s ‘not my responsibility’ (msn.com)

We've been in a banking crisis since the central banks hiked rates and the central planners have been doing their best to paper over the cracks. It's not all bad when rates are high, some other important market participants will benefit including larger banks who aren't exposed to commercial real estate, but also pensioners on defined contributions:

Interest rates and pensions: good news and bad (ft.com)

Jamie Dimon claims we need to hike rates potentially as high as 8% to properly tame inflation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68769561

So, the Fed and BoE are between a rock and a hard place. If they don't cut then the banking system is at risk, a number of smaller banks will fail and any mid or large bank exposed to commercial debt or who didn't effectively hedge, is also at risk of going under. If a few small and a couple of larger banks go under that might cause a cascading domino effect like in 2008 but this is very unlikely. More likely JPM and friends will get a blank cheque, regulatory waivers and buy everything at fire sale prices to further entrench their monopolies. Higher rates also make government borrowing eye wateringly expensive relative to the recent past.

On the other hand if the Fed and BoE cut prematurely then inflation is going to roar back and eat everything alive, which ultimately will cause a severe bout of stagflation and hollow out the economy. 

ECB’s Kazimir: Premature Rate Cut Worse Than Holding Too Long - Bloomberg

Cutting interest rates too soon would be much worse than leaving them where they are for too long, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Peter Kazimir

Bank of England policymaker warns against cutting rates too soon (ft.com)

“After several years of above-target inflation rates and given the threat of persistent inflation dynamics becoming embedded in expectations, in my view there are greater risks associated with easing too early should inflation persist rather than easing too late should inflation abate,” Pill said.

----------------------------------------

Choose your poison. My choice is gold and silver. Oh and that's not to mention the trillion dollar Japanese carry trades (borrowing Yen at 0.1% interest to purchase USD and Treasuries at much higher rates, then purposefully destroying the Yen to make the subsequent Yen repayments lesser, profiting from the difference)

 

Which is a similar strategy to the "melt up" being orchestrated by our central authorities. Stocks are going to have one more blow-off top then crash, folks are piling in setting new ATHs while the smart money (the CEOs and insiders along with the richest men in the world) are selling up and running for the hills

The last time stocks were this concentrated was in the early 1930s .... hmm, what happened next? 

 

It's not that we're stupid either it's that we are corrupt. If you wonder why such things are allowed to transpire when we're aware of the potential consequences, well, it's a feature, not a bug. The bugs are what you will soon be eating. Stack gold, silver and be self-sufficient (farmland, clean water source, independent energy, guns, medical supplies, toilet roll, etc):

 

 

[Petra]

🤔👀it’s only Sunday…. not a graph day👀🤔😁

[Darr3nG]

[TheAnimist]

[Petra]

11 minutes ago, Darr3nG said:

And certainly not this😮🔥

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

6 minutes ago, TheAnimist said:

 

11 minutes ago, Darr3nG said:

 

18 minutes ago, Petra said:

🤔👀it’s only Sunday…. not a graph day👀🤔😁

[Petra]

6 minutes ago, TheAnimist said:

🤔oi!🤔🤔

[SidS]

It's funny but I always skip over the graphs, I read all the text and never looked at the graphs once, I don't find them useful - always hated them at school. The paragraphs on the other hand were very insightful.

[Petra]

5 minutes ago, SidS said:

It's funny but I always skip over the graphs, I read all the text and never looked at the graphs once, I don't find them useful - always hated them at school. The paragraphs on the other hand were very insightful.

😮🤔graphs can make things look worse/ better or dramatic …. just mess around with the scale. 🤔👀😮

[SidS]

2 minutes ago, Petra said:

😮🤔graphs can make things look worse/ better or dramatic …. just mess around with the scale. 🤔👀😮

I just don't like maths.

[Darr3nG]

[Petra]

4 minutes ago, SidS said:

I just don't like maths.

🤔you philistine🤔😮😁

3 minutes ago, Darr3nG said:

Must work out how to put graphs into here🔥😮🤔

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

50 minutes ago, SidS said:

It's funny but I always skip over the graphs, I read all the text and never looked at the graphs once, I don't find them useful - always hated them at school. The paragraphs on the other hand were very insightful.

Maths is more honest and concise than words. My English skills leave a lot to be desired - if brevity is a virtue then I'm morally bankrupt 😂

I'm the opposite and would look at the graphs first, if they were useful then I would read the words

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

50 minutes ago, Darr3nG said:

[CazLikesCoins]

On 25/04/2024 at 18:40, James32 said:

Ouch, so she's a munter?

@katyc you're out.

@CazLikesCoins helllllo

@James32 Oh hello. Honestly, I cant even remember what this thread is about lol

[Dankanugget]

Time to fly with £1906

[James32]

What do we think, another sideways week or up/down?!

[JamesH]

2 minutes ago, James32 said:

What do we think, another sideways week or up/down?!

Sideways with a little downward action

[Petra]

What did Yaz like to say🤔 …. ‘the only way is up……’🤔😮👀⬆️

[Chronos]

8 minutes ago, James32 said:

What do we think, another sideways week or up/down?!

 

Edited April 28 by Chronos

[Dankanugget]

Dobro